2011 Sox Had 5 Starters With Negative WAR

[FirstTimer]

Originally Posted by nwfisch

Major League Leaderboards

How can Josh Johnson's effort be more valuable than Felix Hernandez's despite pitching 65 less innings?

DON'T QUESTION WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FirstTimer]

Nothing screams "great metric for picthers" like one that doesn't even evaluate how many hits they allow!

[FirstTimer]

BRB would rather have Nolasco over Kershaw and Jared Weaver in 2009 based on WAR

[FirstTimer]

BRB would rather have Nolasco over Ted Lilly in 2009 based on WAR

[FirstTimer]

BRB would rather have Nolasco over Zambrano, Dempter, Mark Buerhle, Edwin Jackson, Matt Cain, Randy Wells, John Danks, Joahan Santana, and Bronson Arroyo in 2009 based on WAR

[FirstTimer]

BRB going to go back to ignoring pitchers WAR completely

[FirstTimer]

Can't wait for #19's post

B...b.b.b.but thisbook I read says WAR rocks and I feel smart by using it.

[#19]

Originally Posted by nwfisch

Major League Leaderboards

How can Josh Johnson's effort be more valuable than Felix Hernandez's despite pitching 65 less innings?

That is interesting.

Johnson's HR rate was nearly half of Felix's. Johnson's BABIP is a lot higher which suggest that Felix was a little lucky. Plus, Johnson's K and BB rates are better. Not sure overall but I agree that 65 IP is significant.

[Rice Cube]

The WAR metric is not supposed to be a rate stat, really...it's more of a cumulative assessment of that player's value over the course of a season, or over the course of his career. Depending on which WAR calculation you use, it's going to vary...you can't compare BRef's WAR directly to FanGraphs' WAR because they're using different calculations. I think BRef uses defensive runs saved whereas FanGraphs uses FIP, which makes FirstTimer's point that if you're only valuing a pitcher on his luck-independent skills rather than what actually happened.

However, if you compare two players (or more) within one WAR system, it's standardized so that you know, based on that calculation, which guy was better at producing or preventing runs. Of course it's not perfect and WAR enthusiasts are usually open to pointing out the inherent flaws. Within a season, you don't use WAR to evaluate a player because you don't know when he's going to slump. For example, I think in the first month Starlin Castro had a blistering hot batting average and amassed something like 1.2 WAR, but ended the season as barely a 3 WAR player.

As for the Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez thing, because Johnson pitched 65 innings less, he didn't have those 65 innings in which he could've sucked to drive down his WAR, or where he could've been awesome and left Felix in the dust. I don't think WAR is a good measure here just based on the discrepancy in innings pitched. It also is a bit wacky for relief pitchers, who have inflated leverage indices and thus get a boost in WAR (and which fuels my philosophy that most relief pitchers not named Mariano Rivera are overrated).

[SaberSox]

Originally Posted by FirstTimer

Strawman. Most times bad beats and shitty wins balance out.

Also on to this, there's a reason why typically pitchers would lead the league in wins are usually the elite. Sure you will have Rick Hellings and Ben Sheet exceptions but for the most part pitchers who win a lot of games are typically pretty damn good. Pitchers who lose a lot are usually pretty fucking bad.

They can be, sure. But pitchers who lose can also be on teams where his offense produces runs like my last-place little league baseball team; thus never really ever able to tally up the wins or end up having a crooked number in the L column. See: Felix Hernandez (14-14) or John Danks (8-12).

For the record, I'm not saying Danks is great, but he doesn't fall in your category of "pretty fucking bad". A 3.74 xERA, 44% GB rate, 7.1 K/9 is more worthy than having a 8-12 record. Danks had 16 Quality Starts, which is largely independent of the offense or the defense behind him; that defines him more than 8-12 does. 8-12 is more a function of the shitty White Sox offense and the atrocious defense in the outfield behind him than it is of Danks' skill-set.