Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

Can this be true?


https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/03/yu-darvish-is-throwing-the-best-stuff-in-my-life/

I mean he says he's throwing 97 and the readings earlier in the spring on the gun seem to indicate his velo is up. I'll save the lengthy talk here but suffice to say it wouldn't shock me if he sat 93-94 this year especially after a lot of rest. His velocity was some of the best of his career in 2016 after he sat out a long while with TJS. And to be frank, Darvish was better than people realize last year. I don't want that to be misunderstood. Clearly his ERA was shit. What I'm talking about is how he pitched. His 11.03 k/9 was fantastic. I mean that's elite of elite talent. You're basically talking about Scherzer and him having that kind of stuff. The reason he sucked last year was he couldn't locate for shit. His bb/9 was 4.73 as opposed to his career rate of 3.38 and 2016/17 rates of 2.78/2.80.

I think some of that might be a little on Contreras. Clearly framing was an area he wasn't particularly great at and other cubs had elevated walk rates with him playing a large role though supposedly he worked a bunch with his brother who's a pretty good C prospect with the braves. I think you can also make the case that Darvish's arm was never fully right in 2018. If he were for example pitching through a bit of pain he may not have the command you normally expect out of him and pitching around the pain can easily throw your mechanics out of wack.

To be perfectly honest, I'm really high on this 2019 team. I think if they stay healthy they may be better than the 2016 team just from a talent stand point. This is a team that's won no fewer than 92 games since 2015 and who for the first time in several years got an extra month to rest. They also won 95 games last year and could get major bounce backs from guys like Darvish and Bryant who looks great this spring. You add to that the fact they are likely fairly pissed about how 2018 ended and how many are doubting them this year and I think you have a hopefully healthy group of guys with the right mindset headed into the season.

 

[Omeletpants]

I'm solidly behind a Darvish revival. I just assumed that after an arm injury that a pitcher is never quit the same. If he wins 15-18 games and enters the playoffs strong then we got a chance

 

[beckdawg]

I'm solidly behind a Darvish revival. I just assumed that after an arm injury that a pitcher is never quit the same. If he wins 15-18 games and enters the playoffs strong then we got a chance

Well I'm not a doctor but from my understanding the injury that shut him down for the season was essentially a stress fracture for more simplistic terms. It's typically ligament issues that are worrisome. Bones heal far better than ligaments.

 

[beckdawg]

Also worth noting the cubs appear to be doing a lot of the new fancy stuff driveline is. For those not familiar, driveline is a business that specializes in like using data to improve players mechanics. I forget the brand name off the top of my head but a lot of the cubs pitchers are wearing this sleeve that tracks their arm movement. And in addition to that, I believe they've set up a system similar to driveline's which basically has pitchers throw into a net and uses cameras and various other crap to track stuff like spin rate and a bunch of other data.

It's all fairly complicated but the upshot of it from what I've read is it essentially can tell a pitcher what they are doing wrong with their delivery rather than just having a pitching coach look at a guy. It can be really granular like think i remember reading one of the cubs pitchers had issues because his plant foot was landing pointed slightly the wrong direction or something and it was throwing off command. Crazy stuff like that.

One of the most interesting aspects of all this tech is they apparently have the ability to build pitches from the ground up. Because you can so granularly track stuff you can take a pitcher like say Kluber who has a nasty curve and you can see what he does. You then can basically practice doing what he does by throwing into a net and essentially try to mimic the motions of players who have great pitches. I think with this sort of data they can also essentially take guys who have a similar profile to you pitching and sorta match up things that work well for those players and have you sorta try to emulate things they do that you don't.

So, Darvish saying this is the best stuff of his career... it's not that far fetched when you can incorporate this sort of stuff. I also believe this is an area the Astros were first to jump into very heavy and we've seen how guys they have just suddenly started throwing really crazy stuff.

 

[anotheridiot]

Between 2010 and 2015 the cubs had 8 1st Rd picks (3 in 2012) and of the 8 , 5 all hitters are on major league roster.
3 who aren't are pitchers

2016 they had no pick

2017 Brendon Little pitcher struggling in A ball

2018 Nico Hoerner hitter could be up late this year or next year

So yes their a little behind in the minor league system because of no 1st rd pick in 2016 and a pitcher in 2017, plus their main focus in 2nd rd and higher has been pitching the last couple years with the better ones being in their lower system now

The ones that are on the major league roster are all top 10 picks. Little was 27, Nico 24 most probably because scouts knew he was not going to stick at SS. Pierce drafted 43rd, signed in China in December, Blackburn was disabled most of 2018, has thrown 5 innings this spring training for Oakland giving up 3 hits so far.

I think thats the 50% since Hayden Simpson was cut in 2013 and notable player chosen after him was some guy named Christian Yelich and the slick SS Simmons. But that was not theo, just like counting Javy is not Theo either.

 

[TL1961]

I mean he says he's throwing 97 and the readings earlier in the spring on the gun seem to indicate his velo is up. I'll save the lengthy talk here but suffice to say it wouldn't shock me if he sat 93-94 this year especially after a lot of rest. His velocity was some of the best of his career in 2016 after he sat out a long while with TJS. And to be frank, Darvish was better than people realize last year. I don't want that to be misunderstood. Clearly his ERA was shit. What I'm talking about is how he pitched. His 11.03 k/9 was fantastic. I mean that's elite of elite talent. You're basically talking about Scherzer and him having that kind of stuff. The reason he sucked last year was he couldn't locate for shit. His bb/9 was 4.73 as opposed to his career rate of 3.38 and 2016/17 rates of 2.78/2.80.

I think some of that might be a little on Contreras. Clearly framing was an area he wasn't particularly great at and other cubs had elevated walk rates with him playing a large role though supposedly he worked a bunch with his brother who's a pretty good C prospect with the braves. I think you can also make the case that Darvish's arm was never fully right in 2018. If he were for example pitching through a bit of pain he may not have the command you normally expect out of him and pitching around the pain can easily throw your mechanics out of wack.

To be perfectly honest, I'm really high on this 2019 team. I think if they stay healthy they may be better than the 2016 team just from a talent stand point. This is a team that's won no fewer than 92 games since 2015 and who for the first time in several years got an extra month to rest. They also won 95 games last year and could get major bounce backs from guys like Darvish and Bryant who looks great this spring. You add to that the fact they are likely fairly pissed about how 2018 ended and how many are doubting them this year and I think you have a hopefully healthy group of guys with the right mindset headed into the season.

It's troubling how much better our pitchers are without Contreras. Of course, the usual offseason fluff suggests he may have fixed his framing issues (days after the same publication had a column about David Ross critiquing what Contreras is still doing wrong) I have always liked Contreras' potential, and I am hopeful for a big rebound at the plate. But framing is so much more important than a lot of fans want to acknowledge, and being worst in the league will hurt us a lot if he hasn't improved. It's my primary concern about the team right now - how will the starting staff fare and will the lack of framing cost us?

 

[TL1961]

I'm solidly behind a Darvish revival. I just assumed that after an arm injury that a pitcher is never quit the same. If he wins 15-18 games and enters the playoffs strong then we got a chance

After an arm injury pitchers are never quite the same????????

Are you stuck in the 1970's?

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019...originally-reported-following-medical-review/

 

[anotheridiot]

It's troubling how much better our pitchers are without Contreras. Of course, the usual offseason fluff suggests he may have fixed his framing issues (days after the same publication had a column about David Ross critiquing what Contreras is still doing wrong) I have always liked Contreras' potential, and I am hopeful for a big rebound at the plate. But framing is so much more important than a lot of fans want to acknowledge, and being worst in the league will hurt us a lot if he hasn't improved. It's my primary concern about the team right now - how will the starting staff fare and will the lack of framing cost us?

Its a two way street, if your pitchers cant stay an inch or two off the plate, nobodies framing ability is going to help them. The best pitch stealer in the game will end up being the worst in the league.

We can always put Contrares in left and let Schwarber catch.

 

[TL1961]

Its a two way street, if your pitchers cant stay an inch or two off the plate, nobodies framing ability is going to help them. The best pitch stealer in the game will end up being the worst in the league.

We can always put Contrares in left and let Schwarber catch.

The pitchers did just fine with Montero and Ross. It's Contreras.

 

[Diehardfan]

The pitchers did just fine with Montero and Ross. It's Contreras.

Yeah, well there are only 5 pitchers left here that Gramps or Montero caught. Lester, Strop and Hendricks seem to be functioning well. I'm not sure I see where you're going with this unless it's possible for better framing to make Montgomery a star.

 

[fatbeard]

Yeah, well there are only 5 pitchers left here that Gramps or Montero caught. Lester, Strop and Hendricks seem to be functioning well. I'm not sure I see where you're going with this unless it's possible for better framing to make Montgomery a star.

Fans and their personal vendettas are weird things.

 

[TL1961]

Yeah, well there are only 5 pitchers left here that Gramps or Montero caught. Lester, Strop and Hendricks seem to be functioning well. I'm not sure I see where you're going with this unless it's possible for better framing to make Montgomery a star.

Framing affects all pitchers. It won't make bad pitchers great, but poor framing hurts all pitchers to a degree. Simply put, better framers get more strikes. That helps all pitchers.

 

[anotheridiot]

Forget the pitch clock, get me the electronic strike zone so this conversation will end. "Our catcher is not the biggest cheater in the game, boo hoo".

 

[TL1961]

Fans and their personal vendettas are weird things.

It's not a vendetta to recognize - as all now do - that there are skills that can affect the game, and framing (for better or worse) is one of them. When we got Montero (and I am not crying that he is gone), it was pointed out that he would likely affect the staff almost as much as Lester. Lo and behold, in 2016 our staff was terrific, and we won a WS. It was not all because of the catcher by any means, but it helps.

I went into 2018 thinking Willson Contreras has MVP potential at some point (not meaning last year). I expect a bounce back offensively - he's too talented to hit like last year. I am high on him, offensively. I love his energy. But he has such a long way to go in the one area most fans ignore. Throws behind the runner at first are cute, and throws to second are important. But 90% of a catcher's defense now is framing.

If you choose to continue pretending it is nothing and attacking those who understand it as "having a vendetta", fine. But read pretty much anyone knowledgeable about baseball, and they'll disagree with you.

 

[TL1961]

Forget the pitch clock, get me the electronic strike zone so this conversation will end. "Our catcher is not the biggest cheater in the game, boo hoo".

That would help us tremendously.

 

[fatbeard]

It's not a vendetta to recognize - as all now do - that there are skills that can affect the game, and framing 9for better or worse) is one of them. When we got Montero (and I am not crying that he is gone), it was pointed out that he would likely affect the staff almost as much as Lester. Lo and behold, in 2016 our staff was terrific, and we won a WS. And it was not all because of the catcher by any means, but it helps.

I went into 2018 thinking Willson Contreras has MVP potential at some point (not meaning last year). I expect a bounce back offensively - he's too talented to hit like last year. I am high on him, offensively. But he has such a long way to go in the one area most fans ignore. Throws behind the runner at first are cute, and throws to second are important. But 90% of a catcher's defense now is framing.

If you choose to continue pretending it is nothing and attacking those who understand it as "having a vendetta", fine. But read pretty much anyone knowledgeable about baseball, and they'll disagree with you.

It's not that I'm ignoring Contreras is bad at framing, it's the fact that you focus on it to the exclusion of everything else. You ignore the actual data of his overall player value and throw around these casual post hoc fallacies about 2016. And it comes up in literally every post you make about him. He's your white whale.

 

[TL1961]

It's not that I'm ignoring Contreras is bad at framing, it's the fact that you focus on it to the exclusion of everything else. You ignore the actual data of his overall player value and throw around these casual post hoc fallacies about 2016. And it comes up in literally every post you make about him. He's your white whale.

Are you suggesting comments about poor framing imply that offense doesn't exist? I certainly never said or implied that.

But if you think I undervalued him by not considering his 2018 offensive results, you may want to rethink that argument.

 

[anotheridiot]

I never thought Montero was brought here for his defensive abilities. The guy could never throw out base runners. But I guess he had to cheat to get strikes to keep his job.

 

[CSF77]

Framing has much to do with a catchers helmet as his mitt.

If a catcher is moving his head with the pitch then it leads to ump to think that if is making more or less effort to catch the ball. It is a small thing but a catcher that is able to keep his core tight and move his glove to recieve vs his whole body will tend to get more strikes.

Basically pitcher has command and the ball is going where the catcher expects. Or is he wild and got the catcher jumping around.

So that is a big part of it. It is really not about stealing strikes it is more about not giving them up.