Addison Russell!

[SilenceS]

Since its a slow day, lets talk about Russell and what the Cubs will do with him. At this point, Russell is not doing very well at the plate.

.226 AVG, .296 OBP, .354 SLG, 31.1% K rate, 8.2% walk rate

He has had 1 month where he has hit over .221 and he has been pretty atrocious in July.

My question, how long do the Cubs stay with him with his struggles. I came across Phil rogers tweet that said this

Phil Rogers ‏@philgrogers 18h18 hours ago
There's a much better chance Javier Baez plays a role with the Cubs down stretch than be traded. He's closing in on rehab assignment.

Baez was hitting extremely well at AAA before his injury. He had cut his k rate and he looked like a different hitter. He has changed his swing and his place in the box. He stands over the plate now like Rizzo but from the right side. Now, Im sure the Cubs want to see how he comes back before making any decisions, but Tommy LaStella started doing baseball activities as well.

No question, Russell has shown his range at second and how good he can be defensively. He has had some gaffes but he still 21 for another 6 months.

My point, how long do the Cubs stick with him. If he continues not to hit, he surely would have to go back down right? The Cubs are in playoff contention. I understand development but you cant waste a complete opportunity when he can get full time playing time in AAA.

Thoughts?

 

[beckdawg]

Well let's address this two ways. Short term and long term.

Long term think it's kind of pointless to worry about a 21 year old who had 59 AAA PAs prior to being called up. The fact he's even hitting .238 is pretty amazing really when you consider that the average age of AAA is like 26 and he's a level higher and 5 years younger. In terms of defense, at some point I think you have to see how he plays at SS. He's been over 10 UZR/150 most of the year and granted sample size but that range would put him in the top 5 or so if it continues. So, presumably if that translates to SS that's a big deal.

Short term is a bit more interesting. I'm not going to go into my feelings on Baez. I know them. You know them. By this point everyone should know them. But I will say even if he immediately rebounds to pre-injury AAA level of hitting that's no guarantee he'll be any better than he was in the majors last year. Not trying to start a fight I'm just sayin'. If we ignore that for a moment and assume he's some where between his peak potential and how bad he was last year with some progression it's hard to say. Is he better defensively than Russell at 2B? I'm not sure he is. I think he's more below average to average than average to good that some think but either way I'm not super high on his defense either.

The other factor at play here is hitting. But there's more to it than just does he hit for higher average. Maddon appears to like Russell in the 9th slot as a second lead off guy and let's be honest that's not Baez at all. I'm guessing you'd probably want to bat him 4th or 5th which has some other impact. I would say bat him in front of Rizzo or Bryant but I'm not sure his OBP would play well enough to do that. Either way, he's not going to be a 2nd lead off guy. And while you can play cogs 9th again, I'm not sure you want to do that given he's been your 3rd best hitter this year. You could play fowler there I suppose but he arguably is a better hitter than he hit the first half. So, I don't know in terms of Russell/Baez. Frankly I'm surprised they called Russell up but clearly they had to know this was coming and given they didn't just give Baez the shot instead there's got to be some logic there.

There's also another option here though that you haven't mentioned. Castro is hitting .247/.283/.321 which is actually worse in terms of wRC+ and OBP than Russell. Of the two, Russell given his better defense has been the better player. It's possible you start to talk about moving Russell to SS and maybe give Baez a shot at 2B. It would be a bold move and I'm not saying it happens but if Russell who's clearly part of the future is on the table here then Castro who's played worse should be as well. Castro also happens to be batting in a range where you are likely to see Baez(4-6). I'm not sure you could make that sort of move without flat out trading Castro at the deadline though.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

A 21 year old with a 1.1 WAR. Need we say more? Let him work out his kinks up here.

 

[Diehardfan]

As well as Russell has taken to 2B, I think they go with him for a bit longer....maybe until Baez finishes his rehab and see how things stand. The AS days off might be a big help to Addison as MLB's schedule can really be a grind. If Baez is ready and Russell still is showing little with the bat, you could see a change.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

A 21 year old with a 1.1 WAR. Need we say more? Let him work out his kinks up here.

Absolutely. On pace to be a 2 WAR player as a 21 year old rookie. I realize the team needs to generate some runs but anyone that thinks that this team does much more than win a WC berth, no matter what moves they make, is not thinking clearly. This narrative that this team needs to try to win a World Series in 2015 "for the fans" is starting to make me weary. I hope they overachieve, it's all experience including for Russell, but this is not the year and was never supposed to be.

 

[CSF77]

Well with Baez nearing you have to entertain the idea of playing him or trading him.

Saw this: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/rangers-trade-bullpen-bats.html

A large reason that the team is seeking a right-handed bat is due to an imbalance in the lineup and the upper minors. Daniels notes that it’s both a short- and long-term goal to balance out his lineup. Currently, the Rangers have a glut of left-handed bats, including Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Hamilton, Mitch Moreland, Rougned Odor and Leonys Martin. Daniels mentions to Sullivan that even at the prospect level, many of the club’s top prospects — presumably referring to third baseman Joey Gallo and outfielders Nomar Mazara and Nick Williams — are all lefty bats as well.

I for one would work a deal centered around Baez for Gallo. Toss in what the other team needs and move Gallo to LF. That would end the LF debate and take away the need to rush Schwarber vs letting him work on being a catcher.

 

[CSF77]

On Russell. You let it play out. It is normal for a rookie to struggle. He is giving good D. You take what he gives at the plate and hope he sees improvement.

 

[SilenceS]

A 21 year old with a 1.1 WAR. Need we say more? Let him work out his kinks up here.

WAR in this case is not a good place to look. Its all glove. We have had Darwin Barney. This isn't saying Russell is a bust, but his bat must come up or he is going to have to get demoted.

 

[SilenceS]

On Russell. You let it play out. It is normal for a rookie to struggle. He is giving good D. You take what he gives at the plate and hope he sees improvement.

They sent down Alcantara and Baez for struggling. How is Russell different?

 

[SilenceS]

Well with Baez nearing you have to entertain the idea of playing him or trading him.

Saw this: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/rangers-trade-bullpen-bats.html



I for one would work a deal centered around Baez for Gallo. Toss in what the other team needs and move Gallo to LF. That would end the LF debate and take away the need to rush Schwarber vs letting him work on being a catcher.

Gallo has just as many question marks as Baez and is not near the complete player. No thanks.

 

[SilenceS]

Absolutely. On pace to be a 2 WAR player as a 21 year old rookie. I realize the team needs to generate some runs but anyone that thinks that this team does much more than win a WC berth, no matter what moves they make, is not thinking clearly. This narrative that this team needs to try to win a World Series in 2015 "for the fans" is starting to make me weary. I hope they overachieve, it's all experience including for Russell, but this is not the year and was never supposed to be.

Yet again, they sent down Alcantara and Baez for similar struggles. People are also missing LaStella coming back. For some reason, people are totally ignoring how bad his bat has been.

 

[CSF77]

Gallo has just as many question marks as Baez and is not near the complete player. No thanks.

He seems the 1 of 3 result type.

Comes down to Cubs needing a LH bat and the Rangers needing a RH bat.

Gallo would be on the same power scale as Pederson.

Also Baez was really never demoted. He did not win a roster spot in S/T then his sister died. Alcantara seems the type that needs more playing time and he started cold then got the demote.

Alcantara has played ok this year. Not good enough to force another opertunity. Baez looked like he made an adjustment. His value jumped.

 

[TL1961]

Baez ended 2014 in MLB. He started 2014 in the minors. That is a demotion.

 

[CSF77]

The thing is with Russell. They traded for him. So IMO him getting preference is Bias for sure.

Baez and Alcantara were inherited goods. So they have to force it and it always brings along the increase of trade value.

The way I look at it is they moved him to 3B pre injury. So they were trying to make a spot for him. But in the back ground they were trying to use him in a trade that got nixed.

So by their actions it just signals that Baez is not in the plans. Now his injury might have changed it . Add to it the lack of run support might force them to find a spot for him

If he starts regab at SS I'm thinking trade chip. 3B they are thinking Bryant oF. OF then who knows. He played CF in HS so that would be interesting to see.

 

[CSF77]

Baez ended 2014 in MLB. He started 2014 in the minors. That is a demotion.

He did not win a roster spot. So call it what you want. I concider a demote as what happens in season vs in ST

 

[Boobaby1]

We are talking about a player who supposedly is struggling? He's a rookie.

What's the difference between Alcantara and Baez versus Russell? Russell appears to be more advanced than the other two IMO, plain and simple.

Aside from Alcantara's hot start last year, the second half he averaged .188. Baez was in that neighborhood also with an above 40 percent SO rate.

Russell is the perfect candidate to let him take his lumps. He is almost at .300 in OBP, and is learning on the fly. The other two failed their first go around horribly.

Somebody likes what they see in him.

Lets also not forget that Russell is basically a lead-off hitter. They have probably told him what to do as far as trying to get on base. He doesn't free swing like Castro or else his K rate I bet would be much smaller.

Two very different positions in the batting order.

 

[Boobaby1]

So by their actions it just signals that Baez is not in the plans. Now his injury might have changed it . Add to it the lack of run support might force them to find a spot for him

I'll go out on a limb here and say that Baez is more in the plans than Castro is.

 

[beckdawg]

WAR in this case is not a good place to look. Its all glove. We have had Darwin Barney. This isn't saying Russell is a bust, but his bat must come up or he is going to have to get demoted.

To be fair here, Russell is 2012 Barney as a hitter who wasn't as atrocious a hitter as most of the rest of his career Darwin Bareny. That Barney was worth like 2.4 fWAR if I'm remember right which is on a similar pace to Russell. Overall, he's the 9th hitter for a reason. It feels a bit unfair pointing at 21 year old rookie and singling him out as the reason for the offensive struggle which is kind of what this is doing since we're talking about replacing him with a better hitter. That's honestly why I brought up Castro. Castro is the player who's not doing what you're expecting of him. I have no grudge against Castro here but him, Fowler and arguably Soler should be putting up better numbers than they have this season. They get on track and the offense is largely fixed.

 

[beckdawg]

Yet again, they sent down Alcantara and Baez for similar struggles. People are also missing LaStella coming back. For some reason, people are totally ignoring how bad his bat has been.

In terms of Alcantara/La Stella, I think when La Stella is back you might see Herrera sent packing. He's not offering much at this point and with Russell up and Alcantara/Baez in the minors they probably have enough back up for SS/2B in case of an injury. As for the sending Baez/Alcantara down, to be blunt neither was hitting anywhere near as well as Russell. Russell isn't my dog in the race so to say. That would be Alcantara so if I'm bias on anyone it's him. That being said, Alcantara as a major leaguer has hit .194/.252/.342 over 332 PAs. Baez as a major leaguer hit .169/.227/.324 over 229 PAs. Russell is presently at .226/.296/.354 over 267 PAs. That's 47 points higher in OBP than Alcantara and 72 over Baez.

At this point I think it's up to them to supplant him because he's proven to be the better major league player thus far and the "he's too young" excuse doesn't even help Baez out here because Russell is younger. If you want to argue that Baez's AAA run this year warrants him a shot I think that's a perfectly valid view. I don't personally agree with it but I see the validity in it. However, if that's your stance my opinion is at the very least he has to prove that he's back to those AAA levels after his hand injury before it even warrants talking about. So realistically you're probably talking another 100 PAs which is probably near roster expansion time anyways.

 

[CSF77]

So realistically you're probably talking another 100 PAs which is probably near roster expansion time anyways.


Bingo