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just the meat and potatoes.
To pick higher than 15 with that top 10 protected pick, we need them to miss the playoffs. Right now we would acquire the 16th overall pick.
The problem is if Charlotte struggles too much and misses the playoffs, they will pick 6 or 7 in the east, but will need 4-5 teams in the West to pick ahead of them to push them out of the top 10 protected status.
We want Atlanta to pass them, and one of Detroit, Cleveland, or the Knicks to steal away the 8th spot. Since that is a long shot for any of those 3 franchises despite them all having more talent, we have to hold our breath.
We also would like two of Denver, New Orleans, or Sacramento to keep a worse record then them so they don't fall in top 10 and give us nothing.
I prefer a pick in the 11-14 range this year over the unprotected option in 2016 because there is no guarantee they don't pick out of the top 15 in 2016. It seems safer to collect in this years draft that is so deep in the top 20. But if we have to get a 16th or higher, it seems better to defer and see if Mirotic comes over to solve PF.
Worth noting....Sacramento has some talent. They could pick as low as 12th, but that pick from the Cleveland trade is 1-12 protected this year. It is unlikely they could catch Minny or Memphis without one of those two tanking (they are going the other direction) or Sac getting a 10 game winning streak going (not happening in the west reality they live in). perhaps next year we will have two firsts as well, when that becomes top 10 protected and they add another top talent in the draft. I prefer Sacramento to lose more this year so they add a good enough player to finish outside the top ten in the next two years, or that pick goes to complete wasted and converts to a second in 2017.
Conclusion. We need a lot of shit to shape up just right or we won't get any pick, or it will be 15th-17th if they make the playoffs. Our franchise balance hangs on some luck here, but two firsts the next 2 years is looking likely.
To pick higher than 15 with that top 10 protected pick, we need them to miss the playoffs. Right now we would acquire the 16th overall pick.
The problem is if Charlotte struggles too much and misses the playoffs, they will pick 6 or 7 in the east, but will need 4-5 teams in the West to pick ahead of them to push them out of the top 10 protected status.
We want Atlanta to pass them, and one of Detroit, Cleveland, or the Knicks to steal away the 8th spot. Since that is a long shot for any of those 3 franchises despite them all having more talent, we have to hold our breath.
We also would like two of Denver, New Orleans, or Sacramento to keep a worse record then them so they don't fall in top 10 and give us nothing.
I prefer a pick in the 11-14 range this year over the unprotected option in 2016 because there is no guarantee they don't pick out of the top 15 in 2016. It seems safer to collect in this years draft that is so deep in the top 20. But if we have to get a 16th or higher, it seems better to defer and see if Mirotic comes over to solve PF.
Worth noting....Sacramento has some talent. They could pick as low as 12th, but that pick from the Cleveland trade is 1-12 protected this year. It is unlikely they could catch Minny or Memphis without one of those two tanking (they are going the other direction) or Sac getting a 10 game winning streak going (not happening in the west reality they live in). perhaps next year we will have two firsts as well, when that becomes top 10 protected and they add another top talent in the draft. I prefer Sacramento to lose more this year so they add a good enough player to finish outside the top ten in the next two years, or that pick goes to complete wasted and converts to a second in 2017.
Conclusion. We need a lot of shit to shape up just right or we won't get any pick, or it will be 15th-17th if they make the playoffs. Our franchise balance hangs on some luck here, but two firsts the next 2 years is looking likely.