Schwarber is entering Arb1 this year. Has accumulated 6.6 WAR in 1274 PASchwarber isn't asking for $400 mil. Plus I think the likelihood that he improves is every bit as good as the chance Harper has. Schwarber was a 3.2 WAR, Harper was 3.5.
So how does Javy compare with that with his improvements?Happ has put up 3.3 WAR in 875 PA About the highest year that you will see is 750 PA as a everyday lead off. So saying that he is a everyday lead off at 750 PA that extrapolates to 2.85 WAR. Basically solid starting player if playing everyday.
He is a option as a lead off going forward but he needs to be more aggressive at the plate.
2017: 9.4% BB
2018: 15.2% BB
So he was more lucky but waited more which caused him to put the ball in play less and caused his power to dip. But he still dropped .020 even with a .046 increase in luck.
Honestly I wouldn't trust him in a vital role until he finds balance. Right now he is a work in progress.
You realize baseball has been about stats for 100 years right? Batting average is a stat. RBI's are a stat. Home runs are a stat. I don't get why some people are so scared of new stats. It's just a new way to understand the game. But at it's core it's doing the same thing batting average RBI's and HR have been doing for a century.... trying to put value on players.When did baseball turn into a fucking stat?
I’m not on the Harper train, for a lot of reasons, but what does this mean “this team needs more guys that get on base, not less” ? You realize that Harper had the 4th best OBP in the NL and 9th best in baseball at .393? That’s literally elite level of getting on base? In fact if you signed him this would be the reason why, while of course hoping for the big numbers to come back (which they did in the second half), because his floor is an elite OBP guy with power and he’s 26.I guess this will indicate how serious the Cubs really are if they want to win another WS.
Bringing Harper in will put butts in the seats but I don't think it will translate into another World Series. This team needs more guys that get on base, not less. Power isn't the problem, consistent hitting is. We lost too many games because we couldn't get a run across when we should have. Harper, for all of his power and talent, would be another free swinger on a team of free swingers.
I just don't see it helping this club in getting over that hump again. I could be wrong, he could hit .300 next year but that is a lot of money that could be spent on pitching talent and on hitters that get on base.
I think you are both right on this one.You realize baseball has been about stats for 100 years right? Batting average is a stat. RBI's are a stat. Home runs are a stat. I don't get why some people are so scared of new stats. It's just a new way to understand the game. But at it's core it's doing the same thing batting average RBI's and HR have been doing for a century.... trying to put value on players.
I don't really agree with your second point. I mean sure data isn't guarantee of anything. But what's the alternative? Having "gut" opinions on shit? One thing I can guarantee you is that has a worse win loss record than statistical projections.I think you are both right on this one.
Baseball and stats are quite the marriage. I remember as a wee little one always looking at those data points on the back of baseball cards and using it to figure out who the good players were.
And I love stats. Set the damn class grading curve in both college stat classes.
But I have learned that using stats to predict future human behavior is quite the risk. Use it on dice, cards, machines, physics, etc and it is really reliably predictive. Humans, to an extent, but not so much. I can give you several examples of stat.folks that proved on paper how to save a company and make it prosper, only to watch it go bankrupt. Marketing folks are quite the subset in a company....but I digress.
It is frustrating for people that use what they are actually seeing to base a projection to converse with someone who only looks at historical data points to derive conclusions. Humans do change. Not always or to an extreme degree as the non stat person may project sometimes, but they do. Physical and mental abilities can and do change. And it can be over any period of time. As fans, we rarely know what is going on mentally with an athlete day to day. Are they in a good spot, bad spot....we rarely know.
Historical stats can’t know this either. Stats also don’t know how to provide predictive accuracy when guys are playing injured vs felling like Superman. Or whether a player has changed a technique recently.
Stats on humans can be a great help, but you better be careful as they can set you up for failure as well. You have to be cognizant of changes in human behavior and capabilities.