Cubs heavy favorites to land Bryce Harper according to odds

I am a computer scientist in the finance field and had to do a project on stats in baseball before graduating, to try to find a new stat that found a new probability. Statistics are just measuring probabilities, that is it. And if you love the sport on a physics level and probability level for all its minutia, the statistics part makes dorks like me incredibly excited :)

It isn't meant to predict what will happen in the next at bat it is used to put your players in the best position to succeed in each at bat, for each pitch, and in the right spot in the field. Over the course of a 162 game season this will be a net benefit to the team.

BTW, the stat I created was used to measure where each person should hit in the batting order. Eventually when I have time I will make my own site that scrapes data from other sites and has real time updates on this stat for all of baseball. The stat is somewhat aa combination of .OPS and WRC, but used to determine who should bat when people are on base.

People who hate stats are just generally showing their insecurities in their inability/laziness to understanding them.

Exactly right and it's really simple to relate to probabilities if you try. For instance if the weather forecast shows a 80% probability for rain you probably cancel a big outdoor event or move it inside. That doesn't mean that you won't be sitting inside complaining that the sun is shining and the event would have been better outdoors. In talking aobut what the Brewers are doing the probability of them dong what they just did, winning 12 in a row including winning overtaking the Cubs, winning a one game playoff, winning the NLCS and winning the first game of the NLCS was very slim. The fact that they did it anyway did not invalidate the statistics that showed those odds were slim anymore than the decision to move the outdoor event indoors based on an 80% chance of rain invalidates weather forecasting. When you use numbers to foresee outcomes you are projecting while if you just pick, say a winner of a playoff game in the absence of numbers, you are predicting there is a huge difference. Also, going back to the weather forecasting example, if the models for projecting the weather are consistently wrong, the models will be reexamined. In baseball if the numbers show that a hitter can't hit to the opposite field, and you employ the shift to exploit that, and yet the hitter starts to do what you weren't projecting than obviously those numbers change as well. None of this is hard. If you say there's an 89% chance that Houston wins the ALCS if they win tonight and then Boston wins four in a row that also doesn't invalidate the numbers used to project that outcome.
 

Ari Bear

Hall of Famer
He basically said, Nah to the Nats 10yr 300mil offer today. He is definetly looking to test the market. This bidding war should be interesting.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
He basically said, Nah to the Nats 10yr 300mil offer today. He is definetly looking to test the market. This bidding war should be interesting.
Or he just dont want to play for the Nats anymore...

I think he has his mind set on a team or teams, just a matter of coming to an agreement on a contract
 

kapooncha

New member
I'm hearing Cards may be involved. Man I'm gonna be so pissed if Harper plays in StL. I don't think its going to happen but I'll be pissed.
 

TL1961

Well-known member
Cards have reached the point where they need to make a big move to appease the fans, who are getting plenty impatient.

They were second (allegedly) on Heyward, and on David Price. They missed on Stanton, and Osuna was a train wreck for the first half of the season. They scored a coup, they thought, getting Holland late in the FA period last year.

Meanwhile they are three seasons without a playoff appearance and four without a playoff series win, and they need to do something.

There are plenty of rumors at early in FA that seem to have every team interested in every player, but so far the Cards are rumored to be interested in Kimbrel and I think Harper and Machado fit their needs well. I just don't know that they'll go that big. They may pull another "we tried", but the fans are getting tired of that. It will not shock me if they go big. But I still expect Harper to land elsewhere.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Harper going to be a Cub or Angels
Both teams are tight on budget. Doubtful.

I would list legit suitors as: (to both)

Philadelphia
CWS Jerry broke the 10M barrier so breaking 400M? He has been in that light before.
SDP can absorb 300M
Atlanta makes sense. I’ll say maybe here

The big players: BOSOX/ NYY have little need for either.

LAD really don’t need Harper. If they feel Muncy was a fluke and move the pieces around maybe but they don’t need to invest 400M to make it work.

There maybe others out there that make sense but with a 400M dime I’m thinking that Philly is getting 1 and the White Sox is the fav for the other. Harper and Bryant can be besties then. And rivals.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Both teams are tight on budget. Doubtful.

I would list legit suitors as: (to both)

Philadelphia
CWS Jerry broke the 10M barrier so breaking 400M? He has been in that light before.
SDP can absorb 300M
Atlanta makes sense. I’ll say maybe here

The big players: BOSOX/ NYY have little need for either.

LAD really don’t need Harper. If they feel Muncy was a fluke and move the pieces around maybe but they don’t need to invest 400M to make it work.

There maybe others out there that make sense but with a 400M dime I’m thinking that Philly is getting 1 and the White Sox is the fav for the other. Harper and Bryant can be besties then. And rivals.
Angels are not tight on budget, especially after 2019

I just think if it not the cubs he would prefer to go West and i can see the Angels pitching him playing along side Trout
 

CSF77

Well-known member
The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.

Guaranteed Contracts

Justin Upton, LF: $90MM through 2022
Albert Pujols, 1B/DH: $87MM through 2021
Mike Trout, CF: $66.5MM through 2020
Andrelton Simmons, SS: $28MM through 2020
Zack Cozart, IF: $25.333MM through 2020
Kole Calhoun, RF: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2020)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Matt Shoemaker – $4.3MM
Tyler Skaggs – $3.6MM
Blake Parker – $3.1MM
Andrew Heaney – $2.8MM
JC Ramirez – $1.9MM
Jose Alvarez – $1.7MM
Cam Bedrosian – $1.7MM
Nick Tropeano – $1.6MM
Hansel Robles – $1.4MM
Odrisamer Despaigne – $1.3MM
Jefry Marte – $1.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Despaigne, Marte, Ramirez
Free Agents

Garrett Richards, Jim Johnson, Chris Young, Eric Young Jr., Junichi Tazawa, Blake Wood
[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players. Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup. The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.

There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half. Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position. Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract. Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season. Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.

Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup. Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball. That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.

The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season). After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.

Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH. Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.” Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help
 

CSF77

Well-known member
So pitching. LH part time 1B bat to push Pujos to DH more. And wait for Otanhi to DH again.

Nothing to see here unless they call on Montgomery or Chatwood as they need pitching.

A minor trade would be Cartiani as they need catching and a 1B option. Which he does. So a pack up deal of him and Chatwood would be feasible under the right scenerio for both teams.
 

Castor76

New member
I am a Harper to the Cubs advocate. I would hope that any contract he gets has lots of bonuses for games played to protect against the fact that Harper is as likely to play fewer than 120 games as he is more than 140.

There was a lesson to be learned from the past WS. One of the complaints about Roberts was that he "played the numbers" instead of just putting his best 8/9 hitters out there. Harper would be one more bat Maddon couldn't justifiably platoon. Depnding on the 12 teams on Heyward list this season, I could see a possible trade with the Angels. I could see/hope a trade of Heyward, Cartini, Chatwood, and Quintana for Kole Calhoun and maybe Justin Anderson. LA gets upgrades in RF, C/1B, and one good starter along with another inning guy and the Cubs get payroll relief, which is their primary concern. Even if the Cubs have to pick up 10M a year for the remainder of Heyward's contract, that's 35M is relief this season and 25M next.

Worst thing the Angels say is no.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Well Boras didn’t show his hand but said 300M not close enough and players like Brice play to 40.

So 14/400M is a thing now.

I’m holding to Philly getting 1 of the 2 and the black sox as the other.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Well Boras didn’t show his hand but said 300M not close enough and players like Brice play to 40.

So 14/400M is a thing now.

I’m holding to Philly getting 1 of the 2 and the black sox as the other.
Im going with 10/350 max as an offer from a team
 

CSF77

Well-known member
35M per? I can see that with Bryant. More stable shorter span due to age.

The 14 year thing is fine. As long as the AAV of 28M is front loaded.

To get a 14 year the AAV has to be lower to give a comfort factor of being paid til 40. But I would protect myself with 4x40 so at 30 he owed 240 or 24M AAV. even then I could hit 4x30 after to kill 1/2 of it leaving 6 years 120M from 34-40. Or 20M AAV. Which is fair market then.
 

garapp

New member
One article I read insists that the Phillies are the favorite to sign Harper and another thinks Harper will sign with either the Dodgers or Yankees, since both are contenders and are in bigger metro areas than Chicago with tons of endorsement chances.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
35M per? I can see that with Bryant. More stable shorter span due to age.

The 14 year thing is fine. As long as the AAV of 28M is front loaded.

To get a 14 year the AAV has to be lower to give a comfort factor of being paid til 40. But I would protect myself with 4x40 so at 30 he owed 240 or 24M AAV. even then I could hit 4x30 after to kill 1/2 of it leaving 6 years 120M from 34-40. Or 20M AAV. Which is fair market then.
Nobody offering 14 years and id find it hard to imagine hed want 14 years being 26 unless he had options for half those years, have to think hed want another crack at FA .

Plus

I dont see a team risking 7 yr pass 33 paying all that money
 

Castor76

New member
The Yankees are always unpredictable because they may want to respond to Boston winning the Series. I'd be more worried about the Angels than Dodgers.
 

CSF77

Well-known member
Nobody offering 14 years and id find it hard to imagine hed want 14 years being 26 unless he had options for half those years, have to think hed want another crack at FA .

Plus

I dont see a team risking 7 yr pass 33 paying all that money
Bad teams will do bad things. Ref: Rangers and ARod/Miami/Stanton. Don’t doubt the ineptitude of the rich.
 
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