Eagles-Bears analysis & prediction

[Rory Sparrow]

For the regular season, the Bears averaged 5.4 yards per play and gave up 4.8 yards per play. The Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play but gave up 5.8 yards per play. Its somewhat incredible that the Eagles even made the postseason considering how statistically poor they are.

*Much is being made of Philly's postseason experience, but the 2018 version is just a shell of the 2017 version, and that 2017 version had no 'experience' per se. In 2017, the Eagles and Rams were the best teams during the regular season, and the question was if the Eagles could still win with Foles. This year, the Eagles were terrible in the regular season and now the question is can Foles win another Super Bowl. Weird. So, in sum, I don't put much stock in the Eagles having 'experience'.

*That said, I do have a fear that Matt Nagy's lack of experience might cause him to lose his shit when it comes to 4th downs and other gadgetry. One thing I'll never fault Nagy for is going for 2, because...

*Cody Parkey is completely untrustworthy, even on extra points, and could very well be the reason the Bears are eliminated from the postseason.

*The Eagles defense features a tough tackling front 7 that is difficult to run on, but their pass defense is almost completely reliant on blitzes. Nagy should be able to out-gameplan Jim Schwartz here.

*The two things the Eagles have going for them now that they didn't have earlier are improved pass protection and Darren Sproles. The Eagles did a fantastic job in keeping Foles upright against the tough Texans and Rams defenses. If they can do the same against the Bears, then they have a chance of winning. Sproles is annoyingly good at picking up 1st downs on draws and dumpoffs...two things that could counteract the Bears pass rush.

*In the end, the only way the Bears lose is if they beat themselves on offense. I think even if the Eagles have success moving the ball on the Bears defense, they won't score in bunches and the game will always be in reach. The Bears offense HAS to take advantage of the Eagles defense...either by scoring points (duh) or sustained drives. I can see the Bears losing if Trubisky has a bad game, Nagy takes unnecessary risks that directly lead to Philly scores, or if Nagy goes away from what is working once the offense gets into the redzone and we are 'treated' to several short FG misses from Cody Parkey.

Final score prediction: Bears 28 Eagles 20

 

[Da Coach]

Sorry but I don't see the eagles getting to 10, much less 20.

Bears 20 Eagles 6

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[Les Grossman]

I think I'm most concerned with Alshon getting hot and pulling down some deep jump balls. Foles likes to go to him. Ertz can move the chains but I don't think he'll be a game changer this game.

It'll be interesting to see how much Nagy sticks to running the ball in his first playoff game, especially with the recent resurgence of Howard. I feel like some coaches getting antsy and go pass happy, which doesn't usually bode well for playoff success.

 

[Les Grossman]

Something to consider:

Nick Foles again proves better than Carson Wentz at avoiding the pass rush

One of the reasons the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year is that Nick Foles proved excellent at avoiding the pass rush: In the Super Bowl he threw 43 passes and was never sacked. That came after an NFC Championship Game in which he threw 33 passes and was only sacked once, and a divisional round game in which he threw 30 passes and was only sacked once.

It would be tempting to credit the Eagles’ offensive line for that, but it would also be wrong. Because Carson Wentz, playing behind the same offensive line last season, was sacked far more often: Wentz took 28 sacks in 13 games.



This season, the story is the same: Foles is avoiding the pass rush better than Wentz did. Foles has been sacked nine times through five games after Wentz was sacked 31 times in 11 games.

Overall, in the last two seasons, counting Foles’ postseason run, Wentz has been sacked on 6.6 percent of his dropbacks, while Foles has been sacked on 3.8 percent of his dropbacks.

Foles is simply better than Wentz is at avoiding the pass rush, and that’s a significant difference between them as quarterbacks. With the Eagles heading to Chicago to take on Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense, they may be better off with the quarterback who’s better at avoiding pressure.


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-than-carson-wentz-at-avoiding-the-pass-rush/

 

[nvanprooyen]

24-17 Bears. I'm going to be on my knees praying everytime Parkey is kicking a field goal, or even an extra point. Maybe we should just go for 2 every time?

 

[benplace]

I think I'm most concerned with Alshon getting hot and pulling down some deep jump balls. Foles likes to go to him. Ertz can move the chains but I don't think he'll be a game changer this game.

It'll be interesting to see how much Nagy sticks to running the ball in his first playoff game, especially with the recent resurgence of Howard. I feel like some coaches getting antsy and go pass happy, which doesn't usually bode well for playoff success.

No one will have time to throw it deep against our defense...

 

[DaaBears]

Bears 23-0.

No explanation needed.

And I want an exclusive on that score prediction for all contests, etc. going forward.

 

[SugarWalls]

I respect the eagles o line but I do not think there is any o line that can beat the bears front.

My biggest concern outside of Cody parkey is how will the bears o line handle the eagles d line. Fletcher Cox is an animal. My second concern is shutting down Jeffery and agholar from the 2 big plays they seem to make each game. If Eddie Jackson is healthy I feel good about that, if not then I’m worried.

I’d love to see somebody on the bears pay the wood on Alshon early in this game to put some fear in his heart.

 

[BigAl1965]

OMFG, I just watched FS1 and Skip Bayless is predicting a Eagles upset!!!

 

[TL1961]

OMFG, I just watched FS1 and Skip Bayless is predicting a Eagles upset!!!

Like clockwork.

 

[SD Bears]

OMFG, I just watched FS1 and Skip Bayless is predicting a Eagles upset!!!

Same with Deion Sanders and Colin Cowherd. It's the sexy pick. Proves they pick on emotion and don't consistently watch Bears games. They will look like the asshats they are come Sunday night.

 

[Justdrop]

Bayless always looks like an asshat.

 

[BigAl1965]

I would like to smack Skip Bayless in the mouth!!

 

[Bearly]

I like the reasoning but I suspect the score will be lower. I think Fuller matches up pretty well with Alshon. I also don't think Foles is really that much better at avoiding sacks than Wentz. The playoff O was modified for Foles and it contributed to pressure being less of a factor.

 

[Diehardfan]

Rory is 100% correct...the two players that could impact a Bear win the most are Parkey and Sproles. Parkey...for the obvious reasons we've seen all year and Sproles because he is so damn slippery. The guy's 35 and still plays like he's 25. He does for Philly what Cohen does for the Bears but thanks to his experience, he does it a bit better.

 

[Staleydabear1938]

I think I'm most concerned with Alshon getting hot and pulling down some deep jump balls. Foles likes to go to him. Ertz can move the chains but I don't think he'll be a game changer this game.

It'll be interesting to see how much Nagy sticks to running the ball in his first playoff game, especially with the recent resurgence of Howard. I feel like some coaches getting antsy and go pass happy, which doesn't usually bode well for playoff success.

I don't know if Prince or Kyle will line up against Alshon, but I hope it's Kyle. I want to see Kyle manhandle and bump and hit the shit out of Alshon. Yes I'm still bitter about Alshon being a bitchy bitch.

 

[gwharris2254]

Sorry but I don't see the eagles getting to 10, much less 20.

Bears 20 Eagles 6

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Same could be said for the BEARs O against the Birdies front SEVEN. They are 'bad doggies' and are gonna need a great effort by the BEARs to move the ball against. Our D is gonna set the tone and Put Them Back into Their DogHouse sending them packing to the 4th city, hahahahaha the city of brotherly love

Our D to have an ELITE game Sunday is gonna be a necessity

 

[Mdbearz]

Something to consider:

Nick Foles again proves better than Carson Wentz at avoiding the pass rush

One of the reasons the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year is that Nick Foles proved excellent at avoiding the pass rush: In the Super Bowl he threw 43 passes and was never sacked. That came after an NFC Championship Game in which he threw 33 passes and was only sacked once, and a divisional round game in which he threw 30 passes and was only sacked once.

It would be tempting to credit the Eagles’ offensive line for that, but it would also be wrong. Because Carson Wentz, playing behind the same offensive line last season, was sacked far more often: Wentz took 28 sacks in 13 games.



This season, the story is the same: Foles is avoiding the pass rush better than Wentz did. Foles has been sacked nine times through five games after Wentz was sacked 31 times in 11 games.

Overall, in the last two seasons, counting Foles’ postseason run, Wentz has been sacked on 6.6 percent of his dropbacks, while Foles has been sacked on 3.8 percent of his dropbacks.

Foles is simply better than Wentz is at avoiding the pass rush, and that’s a significant difference between them as quarterbacks. With the Eagles heading to Chicago to take on Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense, they may be better off with the quarterback who’s better at avoiding pressure.


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-than-carson-wentz-at-avoiding-the-pass-rush/

I honestly think that we have a pass rush that is more up the middle and that gives QBs fits, because there is no place to escape to. While Hicks is the Monster, Nichols and Goldman are nearly as good.

Then when a QB gets into obvious passing situations, Floyd and Mack are joining the party.

 

[Les Grossman]

I honestly think that we have a pass rush that is more up the middle and that gives QBs fits, because there is no place to escape to. While Hicks is the Monster, Nichols and Goldman are nearly as good.

Then when a QB gets into obvious passing situations, Floyd and Mack are joining the party.

I would agree and even say that I've seen the DL stunt quite a bit lately, having Mack loop into the middle as well. BUT, I think the point is that Foles doesn't hold the ball that long, which is why he's sacked less than the much more mobile and physically talented Wentz.

 

[HeHateMe]

Rory is 100% correct...the two players that could impact a Bear win the most are Parkey and Sproles. Parkey...for the obvious reasons we've seen all year and Sproles because he is so damn slippery. The guy's 35 and still plays like he's 25. He does for Philly what Cohen does for the Bears but thanks to his experience, he does it a bit better.

RoqSmitty will take care of him.