From ESPN - Teams futures: Better or Worse?

satchice

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Unfortunately there's no Andrew Like in the 2017 draft class.

I think we can move on from that blanket statement.. I don't even know what that means anymore. Luck has had exactly 1 really good season. I'm not sure if he will ever be a top 5 QB.
This is Lucks career stats 65 Games 58.8% Completions, 120 TDs, 63 INTs, 1.90 TD-INT ratio, 26 Fumbles, 1.37 turnovers per game(that is only .08 less then Jay), 86.3 QB RAT
Derek Carr 41 Games 61.1% Completions, 70 TDs, 28 INTS, 2.5 TD-INT ratio, 12 fumbles, 0.97 turnovers/game 87.3 QB RAT
Marcus Mariota 23 Games 63.2% Completions, 42 TDs, 18 INTS, 2.33 TD-INT ratio, 9 fumbles, 1.17 turnovers/game 95.8 QB RAT
Jamis Winston 23 Games 59.1% Completions, 42 TDs, 25 INTS, 1.68 TD-INT ratio, 6 fumbles, 1.34 turnovers/game 86.0 QB RAT
Blake Bortles 40 Games 59.2% Completions, 64 TDs, 48 INTS, 1.33 TD-INT ratio, 14 fumbles, 1.55 turnovers/game 80.0 QB RAT

I'm not saying Luck is a bad QB, but this myth that he is a once in a generation QB is BS. The thought that we need to wait for some one of Luck caliber to make a move in the 1st rd on a QB is BS. In just about every year there is QB comes out of the draft who starts Day 1 and plays at Lucks level. This coming draft seems to have a lot more good QBs then most others. There are 5 different QBs that people are saying are the best one. When is the last time we say that much talent in a draft? Not even 2012 had 5 different potential 1st rd QBs.

So, you are right there is no Adrew Luck, but there seems to be a Derek Carr or 2.
 

satchice

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Outside of Dak can you please name someone from the last 3 drafts that has come in and had instant success both personal and team?

Who is Marcus Mariota! In his RC season he had 3 games with 100+ RAT, 2 games with 360+ yards, and 2 games with 4 TDs, and finished with a 91.5 RAT. I think that should qualify as a successful season regardless of wins.
 

WindyCity

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Who is Marcus Mariota! In his RC season he had 3 games with 100+ RAT, 2 games with 360+ yards, and 2 games with 4 TDs, and finished with a 91.5 RAT. I think that should qualify as a successful season regardless of wins.

His team ended up with the 1st overall pick.

We were talking about when the Bears will make the playoffs. Mariota did a nice job of putting up stats in a garbage season one where his team was literally the worst team in the NFL.
 

rawdawg

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Outside of Dak can you please name someone from the last 3 drafts that has come in and had instant success both personal and team?

Instant team success is a pretty high standard for a team that just drafted in the top 5. But I think you can include Jameis Winston (4000 yards, from 2 wins to in playoff hunt til Week 16 as a rookie), Derek Carr (4000 yards, from 3 wins to 7 wins to playoff team this year), Bridgewater (took team to playoffs in 1st full year starting).

I actually think the Bears have better talent than the Bucs and Raiders did when they drafted their QBs.
 

Ej63090

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His team ended up with the 1st overall pick.

We were talking about when the Bears will make the playoffs. Mariota did a nice job of putting up stats in a garbage season one where his team was literally the worst team in the NFL.

Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level but you cannot ask for a better situation for a rookie QB to walk into. Best line and run game in the NFL, top tier WR, and a grandpa TE who is literally playing out of his mind off of just moxie and wisdom. Witten looks like he can barely move, but is always open.

However, many rookies could come in and screw it up and Dak is continuing to make big plays and shows everything you want in a QB.
 

satchice

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His team ended up with the 1st overall pick.

We were talking about when the Bears will make the playoffs. Mariota did a nice job of putting up stats in a garbage season one where his team was literally the worst team in the NFL.

He still played better and put up better stats on "literally the worst team in the NFL" then Jimmy G has been able to do on the Best team in the NFL.

The bears have just as much chances going to the playoffs with a RC QB as they do with Jimmy G.
 

satchice

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He still played better and put up better stats on "literally the worst team in the NFL" then Jimmy G has been able to do on the Best team in the NFL.

The bears have just as much chances going to the playoffs with a RC QB as they do with Jimmy G.

I actually changed my mind.. The Bears have a BETTER chance going with a RC QB then with Jimmy G, because they would have more salary cap to retain Alshon and add other FA to add impact players right away. Also, they probably would have more draft picks if they did not make a trade.
 

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I have no problem if they would trade for Jimmy G. as long as he doesn't cost too much pick wise and salary wise. However, there have been drafted qbs come-in and succeed early on, just look at this year.

I think most of you would shit a brick at what he'd cost. He ain't coming for peanuts like some here think. And if he is successful he's a free agent after next year so he'd be up for a big contract. Me personally....I'd pay through the nose for a legit top 10 QB. (I have no idea if Jimmy G is that guy) And I certainly don't trust Pace with that decision. But he has to be more of a safe pick than drafting a rookie. We've at least see him play well in the NFL so the risk factor is much lower.
 

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I think we can move on from that blanket statement.. I don't even know what that means anymore. Luck has had exactly 1 really good season. I'm not sure if he will ever be a top 5 QB.
This is Lucks career stats 65 Games 58.8% Completions, 120 TDs, 63 INTs, 1.90 TD-INT ratio, 26 Fumbles, 1.37 turnovers per game(that is only .08 less then Jay), 86.3 QB RAT
Derek Carr 41 Games 61.1% Completions, 70 TDs, 28 INTS, 2.5 TD-INT ratio, 12 fumbles, 0.97 turnovers/game 87.3 QB RAT
Marcus Mariota 23 Games 63.2% Completions, 42 TDs, 18 INTS, 2.33 TD-INT ratio, 9 fumbles, 1.17 turnovers/game 95.8 QB RAT
Jamis Winston 23 Games 59.1% Completions, 42 TDs, 25 INTS, 1.68 TD-INT ratio, 6 fumbles, 1.34 turnovers/game 86.0 QB RAT
Blake Bortles 40 Games 59.2% Completions, 64 TDs, 48 INTS, 1.33 TD-INT ratio, 14 fumbles, 1.55 turnovers/game 80.0 QB RAT

I'm not saying Luck is a bad QB, but this myth that he is a once in a generation QB is BS. The thought that we need to wait for some one of Luck caliber to make a move in the 1st rd on a QB is BS. In just about every year there is QB comes out of the draft who starts Day 1 and plays at Lucks level. This coming draft seems to have a lot more good QBs then most others. There are 5 different QBs that people are saying are the best one. When is the last time we say that much talent in a draft? Not even 2012 had 5 different potential 1st rd QBs.

So, you are right there is no Adrew Luck, but there seems to be a Derek Carr or 2.

I disagree about Andrew Luck. THe Colts offensive line is really garbage hence the number of times he has been sacked. IF he had the Dallas, Raiders, or Pats O-line he would have awesome effectiveness.
 

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Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level but you cannot ask for a better situation for a rookie QB to walk into. Best line and run game in the NFL, top tier WR, and a grandpa TE who is literally playing out of his mind off of just moxie and wisdom. Witten looks like he can barely move, but is always open.

However, many rookies could come in and screw it up and Dak is continuing to make big plays and shows everything you want in a QB.

What the Bears need is a young guy with a good upside and to grow the team around him starting with good receivers and more importantly an offensive line. This would require someone other than they have now on the coaching staff. Look most young qbs will struggle getting used to the NFL and its speed and defensive looks but they have to do it. What about hiring Peyton Manning as Head Coach and let him also run the offense? They need to do something bold, not the half measures they are constantly doing.
 

rawdawg

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I think most of you would shit a brick at what he'd cost. He ain't coming for peanuts like some here think. And if he is successful he's a free agent after next year so he'd be up for a big contract. Me personally....I'd pay through the nose for a legit top 10 QB. (I have no idea if Jimmy G is that guy) And I certainly don't trust Pace with that decision. But he has to be more of a safe pick than drafting a rookie. We've at least see him play well in the NFL so the risk factor is much lower.

We've seen him play OK in the same system that made someone pay a ton of money for Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallett. You guys sound like "analysts" on TV that are always talking about rookie mistakes and veteran plays and shit like that. It's still football. It's not like you're taking a guy who's never played QB before and throwing him in there.
 

BearFanJohn

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Living in Colts country I can tell you the battle cry is that the Colts are squandering Luck's talent. They just don't have enough talent around him like in Manning's prime. They also don't have a coach like Tony Dungee. Or a GM like Polian. They have a dysfunctional owner. The GM and coach clearly don't get along and Irsay signs them both to an extensions. Teams are going to find out that it is difficult to build a winning franchise paying one player, in this case Luck, so much money. Certainly not impossible but then the team has to "hit" on just about every other player who is playing under their position average salary.

I don't think Luck is going to go down as a HoF type of QB. Even if the Colts somehow get talent around him I just don't think he is a P. Manning, Rodgers, Brady or Brees (in his prime).
 

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We've seen him play OK in the same system that made someone pay a ton of money for Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallett. You guys sound like "analysts" on TV that are always talking about rookie mistakes and veteran plays and shit like that. It's still football. It's not like you're taking a guy who's never played QB before and throwing him in there.

Not sure what you're getting at? Are you saying picking a rookie is the same risk factor as trading for Jimmy G?
 

rawdawg

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Not sure what you're getting at? Are you saying picking a rookie is the same risk factor as trading for Jimmy G?

No, I'm saying picking a rookie is LESS risk factor as trading for Jimmy G.....all things considered. Not only will you have to give up likely a 1st round pick + more, but you have a QB that is a FA in 2 years, so you likely have to pay him a lot more than you would a guy on his rookie contract. And you don't even know if that he's NOT a system QB just like every non-Brady QB that has come from that system.
 

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No, I'm saying picking a rookie is LESS risk factor as trading for Jimmy G.....all things considered. Not only will you have to give up likely a 1st round pick + more, but you have a QB that is a FA in 2 years, so you likely have to pay him a lot more than you would a guy on his rookie contract. And you don't even know if that he's NOT a system QB just like every non-Brady QB that has come from that system.

I agree with this. Hard to justify an investment of high picks + a big pay day for a QB who has a very small sample size of success. Similar situations in the past, Osweiler, Flynn, Cassell, have not worked out well for those taking on the QB. Add in the fact he hasn't shown anything to suggest he is nothing but a system QB and the risk grows larger. I wouldn't mind him at a reasonable price like our 4th, which will be more like a third, but what incentive do the Patriots have for that deal.
 

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Need I remind people that Sam fucking Bradford Netted a first rounder. You can bet your last penny Jimmy will cost all of that and then some. I'm with Smokey and Dawg on this one. Save your future assets and draft a QB.

I'll say it again, out of the last 10 superbowl winners, 80% drafted and groomed thier own.

Out of the last 10 superbowl runner ups, 80% drafted and groomed thier own...in other words, Don't trade for an unknown veteran commodity.
 

rawdawg

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Need I remind people that Sam fucking Bradford Netted a first rounder. You can bet your last penny Jimmy will cost all of that and then some. I'm with Smokey and Dawg on this one. Save your future assets and draft a QB.

I'll say it again, out of the last 10 superbowl winners, 80% drafted and groomed thier own.

Out of the last 10 superbowl runner ups, 80% drafted and groomed thier own...in other words, Don't trade for an unknown veteran commodity.

It's one thing if the Bears were picking 25th and giving up that pick. But you don't trade a top 5 pick (in a decent QB draft) for someone else's QB. Even if you say a future 1 or maybe a 2nd this year is the highest pick you give up. But in any scenario, if you are a team that needs a QB and you have a top 5 pick.....you draft the QB you want with that pick. Only exception is if you can get a team to give up a package like the Skins gave for RG3.
 

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