IST: Cubs vs. Reds

beckdawg

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So the whole Zobrist situation is interesting from a rostering standpoint. I believe since he's not on the roster he isn't technically being paid for any time he's gone. And if he's not technically being paid, I don't believe that salary counts against the cubs in terms of luxury tax. There's roughly 6 months in a season. And from my understanding you're paid basically on a day by day bases from opening day through the final game of the season.

What that means is effectively if Zobrist is out a month the cubs are saving $2.08 mil in actual money and like $2.33 mil for luxury taxes. I realize that seems like just a general "who cares?" amount of money but typically teams only budget like $10 mil for in season moves. For example here's the last 5 years opening and ending payroll for the cubs

2018$182,406,139$193,316,649 ( 5)+$10,910,510
2017$172,199,881$183,310,943 ( 9)+$11,111,062
2016$171,611,834$205,917,980 ( 4)+$34,306,146
2015$120,337,385$133,051,389 (11)+$12,714,004
2014$ 92,677,368$ 93,196,617 (20)+$519,249

Obviously 2014 is kinda pointless as they weren't competing and 2016 they pretty much went all in knowing they had the best team in baseball. The other 3 years you're talking between $10.9 mil and $12.7 in additional in season expenses. So, Zobrist being out as long as he has already(think we're at like 3 weeks now) and the fact he's really given no indication he's close to returning may mean at a minimum you're talking like what 6-8 weeks? And if so that's $3-4 mil on top of what they likely are holding back.

As that pertains to the elephant in the room... if you assume Kimbrel wants something approaching $15 mil/season and if you also assume that at this point he's probably not getting anything more than a 1 year offer... he's also impacted by the timing of missing games. If you assume he's out 2 months until after the draft(because of pick comp), $15 mil over 4 months is more like $10 mil.

So, theoretically Zobrist missing 2 months could end up paying like 40% of what Kimbrel may end up costing.
 

Diehardfan

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So the whole Zobrist situation is interesting from a rostering standpoint. I believe since he's not on the roster he isn't technically being paid for any time he's gone. And if he's not technically being paid, I don't believe that salary counts against the cubs in terms of luxury tax. There's roughly 6 months in a season. And from my understanding you're paid basically on a day by day bases from opening day through the final game of the season.

What that means is effectively if Zobrist is out a month the cubs are saving $2.08 mil in actual money and like $2.33 mil for luxury taxes. I realize that seems like just a general "who cares?" amount of money but typically teams only budget like $10 mil for in season moves. For example here's the last 5 years opening and ending payroll for the cubs

2018$182,406,139$193,316,649 ( 5)+$10,910,510
2017$172,199,881$183,310,943 ( 9)+$11,111,062
2016$171,611,834$205,917,980 ( 4)+$34,306,146
2015$120,337,385$133,051,389 (11)+$12,714,004
2014$ 92,677,368$ 93,196,617 (20)+$519,249

Obviously 2014 is kinda pointless as they weren't competing and 2016 they pretty much went all in knowing they had the best team in baseball. The other 3 years you're talking between $10.9 mil and $12.7 in additional in season expenses. So, Zobrist being out as long as he has already(think we're at like 3 weeks now) and the fact he's really given no indication he's close to returning may mean at a minimum you're talking like what 6-8 weeks? And if so that's $3-4 mil on top of what they likely are holding back.

As that pertains to the elephant in the room... if you assume Kimbrel wants something approaching $15 mil/season and if you also assume that at this point he's probably not getting anything more than a 1 year offer... he's also impacted by the timing of missing games. If you assume he's out 2 months until after the draft(because of pick comp), $15 mil over 4 months is more like $10 mil.

So, theoretically Zobrist missing 2 months could end up paying like 40% of what Kimbrel may end up costing.
The last I read, which was about a month ago, is that his price has dropped to $45 mil over 3 yrs. A lot of money, but if he is still the same guy....it's not an over the top amount. Which begs the question....why is no one biting? Let's look at just the NL Central for example....IMOP, as of this moment, I'd say the most reliable pen in the division resides in Cincy. That leaves teams with money available like Milwaukee, St. Louis and Pittsburgh all in need of relief pitching, all in contention as we speak and all not showing any interest. Why is that? I can only think that he maybe he is damaged goods and MLB is aware of it. What I'm saying is that even if the Cubs figured a way around the luxury tax....would throwing money at Kimbrell a good move? Financially or in a baseball context.
 
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beckdawg

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Which begs the question....why is no one biting?
Well no one is going to sign him before the draft. When he never signed prior to ST camps finishing I said this. The reason has less to do with him and more to do with the QO. I mean sure it is probably a case of him overvaluing himself in this market as to why he isn't signed. But once it got to the start of the season he was never going to sign before the draft. There's a multitude of reasons but the biggest is the QO cost you a draft pick up until the draft. After the draft it goes away. So, it's not like if you sign him the day after the draft you pay next year's pick. It's just gone. That makes the incentive for teams to way a lot higher.

The second reason is as I mentioned, most teams only leave $10-15 mil for in season moves. And that's typically not a signing of a guy like him. Its more for when you have to add guys to the 40 man. the ~$500k you pay isn't a lot but it adds up. So there's a lot of teams that just probably don't have the room in their budget. As we get closer to july that changes as I mentioned because instead of paying a guy $15 mil for the full year you're paying half that. That's the reason relievers are more attractive in july. As we get closer to july, he effectively is going to be a "july trade" only without the cost of prospects for teams.

The thing is that also limits where he can go. If you're not one of the top 10 teams in baseball you're probably not in a position to be buying right now. For example, take St. Louis. They are a .500 team right now. If you're their front office are you really going to go out and spend $10 mil that you may end up just selling in july for pennies on the dollar? So there's a limited pool of teams and there's a lot of bad teams that aren't even trying to get better like baltimore.

And then there's Kimbrel himself. Like why would he bother signing for a crummy team? He's waited this long so unless he gets his price which isn't gonna happen IMO, he's far better off waiting to see which contenders sort themselves out and then pick the one that gives him not only the best deal money wise but the best chance to be part of a winner.
 

SilenceS

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Norwood and Zagunis optioned to AAA

Tim Collins and Dillon Maples were brought up
 

TL1961

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The last I read, which was about a month ago, is that his price has dropped to $45 mil over 3 yrs. A lot of money, but if he is still the same guy....it's not an over the top amount. Which begs the question....why is no one biting? Let's look at just the NL Central for example....IMOP, as of this moment, I'd say the most reliable pen in the division resides in Cincy. That leaves teams with money available like Milwaukee, St. Louis and Pittsburgh all in need of relief pitching, all in contention as we speak and all not showing any interest. Why is that? I can only think that he maybe he is damaged goods and MLB is aware of it. What I'm saying is that even if the Cubs figured a way around the luxury tax....would throwing money at Kimbrell a good move? Financially or in a baseball context.
Milwaukee's pen has been good, has it not?
Hader has had some hiccups, but surely they aren't going to dump him. He is still very good more often than not.

St. Louis' pen has a "closer" that throws 107 but can't get into games. He has worked 4 games in May, and at least two were not save situations. Wacha just went to teh pen, and presumably someone from th epen replaces him in the rotation. They just got Martinez back, and will get Reyes in a few weeks. One of those two may (should) go into the rotation for whomever gets the next few starts, but that pitcher most likely swaps back into the pen - bottom line: They need starters more than relievers, and I doubt they''ll be in on Kimbrel, unless they think both Martinez and Reyes can go back to starting. And even that leaves them dumping someone like Wainright, and I don't think they have it in them to do that, even though they should.
 

TL1961

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Lazy day...not much going on.
Think I will turn on the Cubs.
What's that? It's a Darvish start?

What's on Netflix??
 

Diehardfan

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Milwaukee's pen has been good, has it not?
Hader has had some hiccups, but surely they aren't going to dump him. He is still very good more often than not.

St. Louis' pen has a "closer" that throws 107 but can't get into games. He has worked 4 games in May, and at least two were not save situations. Wacha just went to teh pen, and presumably someone from th epen replaces him in the rotation. They just got Martinez back, and will get Reyes in a few weeks. One of those two may (should) go into the rotation for whomever gets the next few starts, but that pitcher most likely swaps back into the pen - bottom line: They need starters more than relievers, and I doubt they''ll be in on Kimbrel, unless they think both Martinez and Reyes can go back to starting. And even that leaves them dumping someone like Wainright, and I don't think they have it in them to do that, even though they should.
Watch their box scores.....if you had a closer like Hader, would you use him in multiple innings if you didn't have to? Counsel is constantly rearranging things to avoid over using the guy but he's still forced to use him Goose Gossage style....they are not much better than the Cubs.
 

TL1961

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Well, we scored 6 in the first 5 innings, but naturally, it isn't enough on a Yu Day.
 

SilenceS

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Well, we scored 6 in the first 5 innings, but naturally, it isn't enough on a Yu Day.
Yu today was the most impressive I have seen him as a Cub. He got some bad luck with ground balls finding a hole. He gave us 7 innings and kept the lead. He did his job. He had some hangers today that got smoked, but he kept the lead.
 

TL1961

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With the wind blowing out, and our bullpen, we are trying to negotiate with the Reds for how many runs they'll settle for if our relievers don't actually have to throw pitches.

The over/under is 3.
 
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