Jimmy Bulter SG or SF

[czman]

I keep reading people say Jimmy Butler is a natural SF and that he should start there.

I decided to do some analysis on this and see what i could turn up. here are the empirical numbers on Jimmy Butler.

SG per 48 minutes:
eFG .479
Reb 6.7
Blocks .8
Ast 2.9
TO 1.9
PF 3
Points 16
PER 13.4

SF per 48 minutes:
eFG .517
Reb 7.6
Blocks .5
Ast 2.6
TO 1.3
PF 1.8
Points 15.5
PER 16.4

He plays a little better at the SF position offensively. Lets take a look at the numbers of the people he is guarding at those spots.

opponent SG per 48 minutes:
eFG .427
Reb 5.2
Blocks .6
Ast 3.5
TO 3.3
PF 4.7
Points 14.8
PER 7

opponent SF per 48 minutes:
eFG .486
Reb 7.4
Blocks 1.2
Ast 2.5
TO 2
PF 3.4
Points 16.1
PER 12.7

He is a better defensive player and rebounder against SGs.

Differential:

SG (SF in brackets)
eFG .052 (.028)
Reb 1.5 (.3)
Blocks .2 (-.6)
Ast -.7 (.1)
TO 1.4 (.8)
PF 1.7 (1.5)
Points 1.2 (-.6)
PER 6.4 (3.8)

He seems to play better comparative against SG, except as a facilitator.

Couple important notes. The Bulls allowed an opponent eFG of .477. Butler allowed a higher than team average against SF while allowing a ridiculously low .427 against SGs.

For those that are wondering Luol Deng allowed an eFG of .473 against SFs.

These numbers indicate that Butler is a better matchup at SG and adds more to the team at that position.

 

[BNB]

Two things I would want to know... How many minutes was he playing at each position and who he was playing against. If he spent like 80% of the time playing SF and 20% of the time playing SG, the SG stats don't mean that much and vice versa.

Also, if most of the time while playing SF he was guarding guys like LBJ, KD, Melo, Gay, etc. of course his defensive stats won't be as good since those guys will make any defender look bad.

 

[The Ball Dont Lie]

BNB stole my thunder...

The stats do support your argument. But stats can be misleading.

 

[clonetrooper264]

BNB stole my thunder...

The stats do support your argument. But stats can be misleading.

Of course the stats support his argument, otherwise he wouldn't use them.

I'd assume that he played more minutes at SF in the latter half of the season when Jo was out but played SG before that. It's hard to say just by looking at box scores. There was a stretch in January where he played HUGE minutes, but I think that's because Lu was injured.

I'd also have to guess that he was guarding a lot of high scoring players at SF relative to SG. Like czman likes to point out, SF is much deeper than SG, so obviously the quality of player he's going up against is also much better. Now depending on whether Deng was healthy or not maybe he wasn't even guarding those guys...or maybe he and Deng were switching off. Furthermore, if he's guarding some random guy like...Danny Green at SG while Deng is on the best perimeter player, of course his defensive stats at SG are going to look better.

Beating on the dead horse, we do need the info BNB mentioned to make a better judgement of these stats.

 

[czman]

Of course the stats support his argument, otherwise he wouldn't use them.

I don't think you know me well enough to make that claim.

He played 1/3 his minutes at SG and 2/3 at SF. He played some at PF, but not enough to make a difference so 1/3--2/3% are close enough.

Most of his early minutes were played at SG and he played more at SF. That is why you will notice that his eFG is better at SF. I left that out, even though it would further my claims, because I did not have concrete numbers.

The data is still a small sample size; especially when you consider how much he improved during the year.

I did not add his numbers from last season. They were similar; however, last season he was far better at SG than SF. He was a +10 PER at SG and a -7 at SF.

Last season SG eFG was .409 and SF was .466. the Bulls eFG as a team last season was .450. Deng allowed a .469.
Butler was a +4.7 at SG and 0 at SF.

Deng had a +1.3 PER last season.

I don't think the offensive numbers last season are all that indicative of what Butler. His defensive numbers were better at the SG and they were better at a samiliar rate.

Last season he played about 60% of his time at SG and about 40% at SF.

There was a lot more data that supported my claim that I left out, because I didn't find it as relevant. As we can see from the above. Please do not make assertions about a person you know nothing about.

 

[Crystallas]

He is better at the SF. The issue that is being ignored here, is the evolution of "natural" positions in the NBA. It took about 4 years for people to REALLY notice how the center position changed into a second PF position. Now, teams either go with a flexible SF to play the 2, or a flexible PG with size to play the 2 as a commonplace. We have always had multiple position players, swings, combos, stretch-players, just not to the same degree as today's league. At some point, just like the Center position is gravitating back to a, well, a center, we'll see the same occur again with guards, when more skilled prototypical SGs become available.

Jimmy is a multi-position player. But the real fact of the matter is, the NBA's landscape allows him to have success at multiple positions because he is also getting matched up with players of similar skills who may not be in a native position of their own.

 

[clonetrooper264]

I don't think you know me well enough to make that claim.

He played 1/3 his minutes at SG and 2/3 at SF. He played some at PF, but not enough to make a difference so 1/3--2/3% are close enough.

Most of his early minutes were played at SG and he played more at SF. That is why you will notice that his eFG is better at SF. I left that out, even though it would further my claims, because I did not have concrete numbers.

The data is still a small sample size; especially when you consider how much he improved during the year.

I did not add his numbers from last season. They were similar; however, last season he was far better at SG than SF. He was a +10 PER at SG and a -7 at SF.

Last season SG eFG was .409 and SF was .466. the Bulls eFG as a team last season was .450. Deng allowed a .469.
Butler was a +4.7 at SG and 0 at SF.

Deng had a +1.3 PER last season.

I don't think the offensive numbers last season are all that indicative of what Butler. His defensive numbers were better at the SG and they were better at a samiliar rate.

Last season he played about 60% of his time at SG and about 40% at SF.

There was a lot more data that supported my claim that I left out, because I didn't find it as relevant. As we can see from the above. Please do not make assertions about a person you know nothing about.

This is an internet forum, I will make sweeping generalizations as I please!

But really, anytime a person uses stats to make an argument, it's safe to assume that those stats back up the argument...doesn't make sense otherwise. UNLESS, you were saying that the stats proved you wrong, I think it's a reasonable assumption to say you used those stats to validate your claim. And when I say 'you' I mean anyone...don't feel like having the proper grammatical phrasing for that.

That being said...the minutes being weighted as they are, I'd have to guess that the quality of player Butler was going up against defensively was much higher than, or at least on average better than, those he went up against at SG which is my guess as to why his stats are better defensively. If you rank the top 10 SFs and top 10 SGs, I'm sure you'll see that the level of player by the time you get to around 5-7 is drastically different.

 

[The Ball Dont Lie]

For the record, I only said what I said because what I wanted to say was said.. Mmm interesting sentence. But anyway, I was going to say everything BNB said, only to scroll down and see it was already said.

And I guess in my mind I was all ready to type something, so I wrote what I wrote just to write something. I didn't think it was that big of a deal. Even if I was pointing out the obvious.

 

[clonetrooper264]

Something else to note...if he played SF for 2/3 of his playing time and everyone is raving about how well he played, don't you think that tells you that he can play SF just fine? I'm not really arguing that he's better suited for SF compared to SG, but OP is adamant that Jimmy is so much better suited for SG. I don't think that's necesarily true, and obviously Thibs doesn't think so either seeing as he played Jimmy at SF for 48 minutes every chance he got.

 

[scottiepippen1994]

Jimmy is a Small Forward first.
Jimmy is a SG second.
Jimmy is a versatile player with the natural physical traits of a prototypical small forward in size and style basketball he plays.
your everyday 2 guards are normally quicker off the dribble and better shot creaters.
Jimmy is suitable for certain tasks, or temperary starts, or 2nd hand minutes , or switching off for defensive assignments at the 2guard posistion WHEN NEEDED OR CALLED UPON.
But not as our permanate everyday 2guard.......


Jimmy is much more suitable as a starting SMALL FORWARD.



Pippen could play multiple positions also and did when he was needed or called upon to.
BUT, PIPPEN STARTED AS SMALL FORWARD.

Jimmy has potential to play a Pippen type roll in the future for the Bulls.......

If we had a great scoring 2guard to sign or trade for, Jimmy would COMPLIMENT a 2guard better than actually being our main 2guard.


Blad blah blahhhhhh......

B
O
T
T
O
M

L
I
N
E......................................


Jimmy Butler is a SMALL FORWARD.
When Dengs gone, Jimmy will most likely be the Bulls main swingman SMALL FORWARD.


PERIOD.............

We are set at the small forward position..........

I don't buy that crap that the Bulls have found there 2guard in Jimmy.
We NEED a real fucking 2guard who's specialty is SCORING.....

S C O R I N G G U A. R. D.....................................
Not defensive guard.......

And going solely on stats don't mean didly squat cuz when comparing Jimmys numbers at 2guard because we didn't have Rose or half of the rest of the team in uniform so Jimmy HAD NO CHOICE but to overachieve while playing 2guard.

:derbulls:

 

[Axl Rose]

hes a swingman

 

[ChettheJet]

Stats can show anything you want. There's no way to estimate what Butler can do at the 2 with Deng actually playing at the 3 which we didn't see very much of but that's how it very well could end up next year. It would be a different story with Jimmy at the 3 and Kirk at the 2. And all of those numbers aren't worth much because one Derrick Rose was either in rehab or wearing suit on the bench for them.

As for the title of this thread. I see Jimmy starting at the 2 next to Rose, Then playing the 3 when Deng rests with hopefully a resigned Bellinelli playing behind him at the 2. I do believe Butler's minutes will drop to 36-38 and he won't be called on to be an iron man again.

 

[Scoot26]

He can play both obviously and he can give Deng rest by sliding over to SF when the Bulls bring in Hinrich then.

Sent from the interwebz using ancient technology

 

[JosMin]

How about we let him play wherever is going to give him the most minutes? I mean, especially after we unload Deng and Boozer this offseason to completely revamp the team.....

:derbulls:

 

[dabears253313]

Shooting guard now, small forward later. Hopefully just shooting guard for the next few years because that will mean that Luol Deng is still on the roster.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I keep reading people say Jimmy Butler is a natural SF and that he should start there.

I decided to do some analysis on this and see what i could turn up. here are the empirical numbers on Jimmy Butler.

SG per 48 minutes:
eFG .479
Reb 6.7
Blocks .8
Ast 2.9
TO 1.9
PF 3
Points 16
PER 13.4

SF per 48 minutes:
eFG .517
Reb 7.6
Blocks .5
Ast 2.6
TO 1.3
PF 1.8
Points 15.5
PER 16.4

He plays a little better at the SF position offensively. Lets take a look at the numbers of the people he is guarding at those spots.

opponent SG per 48 minutes:
eFG .427
Reb 5.2
Blocks .6
Ast 3.5
TO 3.3
PF 4.7
Points 14.8
PER 7

opponent SF per 48 minutes:
eFG .486
Reb 7.4
Blocks 1.2
Ast 2.5
TO 2
PF 3.4
Points 16.1
PER 12.7

He is a better defensive player and rebounder against SGs.

Differential:

SG (SF in brackets)
eFG .052 (.028)
Reb 1.5 (.3)
Blocks .2 (-.6)
Ast -.7 (.1)
TO 1.4 (.8)
PF 1.7 (1.5)
Points 1.2 (-.6)
PER 6.4 (3.8)

He seems to play better comparative against SG, except as a facilitator.

Couple important notes. The Bulls allowed an opponent eFG of .477. Butler allowed a higher than team average against SF while allowing a ridiculously low .427 against SGs.

For those that are wondering Luol Deng allowed an eFG of .473 against SFs.

These numbers indicate that Butler is a better matchup at SG and adds more to the team at that position.

Based on the topic you're posting about, I'm going to assume you're a long time NBA fan. I think the problem with your post (and overall it's a good one) is that guys like you and myself (that I JUST DID in another thread), is that we feel beholden to the positions in the NBA. I don't think it matters if Jimmy plays the 2 or the 3. I think the important part is that he can play BOTH positions.

There was an article a couple years ago from the Wall Street Journal (I think) that argued that that basketball has evolved from the idea of having a 'power forward' and 'shooting guard.' I'll try to find it, but my guess is you'll be interested in reading it regardless of whether you agree or not.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Here is the article I was referring to.

The position-less player.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Here is a video of the guy who came up with the 13 new basketball positions.


[video=youtube;E-gpSQQe3w8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-gpSQQe3w8[/video]

 

[clonetrooper264]

Here is a video of the guy who came up with the 13 new basketball positions.


[video=youtube;E-gpSQQe3w8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-gpSQQe3w8[/video]

Imo he goes a little over the top, but I agree with his overall point. This is why terms like "point forward" and "combo guard" exist in the first place. Jimmy Butler falls into the "swingman" category.

Ultimately, if you ask "is Jimmy Butler a SG or a SF" I think the answer should be "yes"

 

[Crystallas]

YAY! The concept is finally breaking through.

Now if we can get past this stigma of only comparing white players, to other white players.