MLB draft(June 3-5)

[DanTown]

So every year, there is one or two guys that drop due to something about them injury or signing wise and that guy this year seemingly is Matthew Allan (Law, MLB.com, Fangraphs had him in the top 20) and yet he's still on the board and 9 HS SR pitchers have already gone. If he lasts to 103, have to wonder if the Cubs think they got two under slot guys and can make a run at him.

Hard to really care about draft picks considering the bust rate is so high.

EDIT - Allan seems to have the sign ability questions but I always wonder how real that is. A pitcher going to turn down say $3M to go to college for several years just on the hope that you're a future top 10 pick? Even if you are, you still have the concerns about arm and development.

 

[beckdawg]

I've had a bit more time to digest the first 2 rounds and came to some thoughts. Strumpf is pretty clear what's going on. He's probably one of if not the best bats available at that pick and he plays up the middle. I mean he's probably never going to play SS again but he's good enough to be a better than average 2B.

I can see if people were to look at just rankings they would be disappointed in Jensen. And if all you ever do following prospects is tune in for the first couple of draft rounds in a vacuum it's a questionable pick. I tend to like to understand people's thinking when they make decisions so I've been rolling it around in my brain a bit.

The current cubs minor league system is full of high floor guys but doesn't have many high ceiling guys. That's largely because the player the cubs have typically drafted hasn't been concerned with velocity. That's sort of why this pick intrigued me when they made it. To cut to the chase, I think they are gambling on developing him. The only player that's really comparable to him in terms of having that premium velocity and still has a good shot at starting was Jackson Rutledge who went 17th. Jensen has the two hardest things to teach pitchers namely velocity and command.

And that's where I find this to be an interesting test case. Over the last year or so the cubs have developed a "pitch lab" in mesa which is effectively an in house version of drive line. It's pretty techy/nerdy but effectively it allows you to quickly make tweaks to your pitches rather than having to figure it out the way you would in the past. You can try various different ways of throwing a pitch and it will tell you how much movement you're getting and what not. You can also see high speed footage of how various MLB pitchers throw their pitches and it sorta allows you to figure out how and why what they do works.

Anyways to the point at hand, if Jensen can improve his slider or develop some form of curve with this pitch lab then he can really quickly move up prospect boards. Nate Pearson was the 28th pick in 2017 who was basically a 70 fastball 60 slider with 45 CB/CH and command. Pearson is currently MLB.com's #56 prospect and #63 on fangraphs. Jensen already has the 70 fastball, and projects to have 50 change up and 50 command. He's also apparently a really good athlete which is typically a good sign for pitchers.

Long story short, I think that's the best way to view this pick. As I said earlier I think they may also save a little money on the pick but if you view this as them gambling on their development staff it makes a bit more sense. And when you also factor in that they have so much good but not great pitching, now is a good time to be gambling.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know, I understand how this years first overall pick was previously picked in the fourth round and had sign ability issues, but we all remember Appel turning down the Detroit Tigers out of high school in 2009, ends up being picked 8th by Pittsburgh and still did not sign, only to hold out for number 1 and then be known as one of the three players EVER drafted number one and never playing major league baseball.
You gotta think sign ability issues go both ways after Appel.
Either way, we got the 99th ranked player in the 27 spot, then took a little second baseman at 65. Not a SS who can play anywhere, but a guy already relegated to 2b.

Just pawns to deal for pitching I guess.

 

[beckdawg]

Either way, we got the 99th ranked player in the 27 spot

I'm not sure that's how I'd say this. Keith Law had him 32. Fangraphs had him 55th. BA and MLB.com didn't like him as much obviously but the point here is it's not like it was a consensus. Additionally say you take the 55th fangraphs had on him... There were only 15 pitchers ahead of him with 4 of those 15 pitchers still undrafted which probably means signablity issues, and another 8 were drafted before the cubs made their selection. The other 3 were Brennan Malone(33rd pick) who was a HS arm. J.J. Goss(36th) who also was a HS arm and Drey Jameson(34th) out of ball state. The cubs don't typically draft many high school pitchers because they are the most risky players you can draft. This draft isn't deep in pitching at the top. The cubs got a guy who has tools. He's far from a complete package right now but you're not going to find pitchers without warts in this draft.

As for Strumpf, you're vastly underselling him. In 608 career ABs at UCLA he's hit .301/.414/.508(14.46/19.95 bb/k). Hoerner in the same conference hit .305/.352/.409(6.14/9.54) in 689 ABs at stanford. Additionally, from my understanding the only thing "wrong" with him at SS was his arm is weak. He'll be an above average 2B. I'd also argue he's got a realistic shot at being a starting 2B for the cubs in 2-3 years should they need him to be that.

 

[beckdawg]

found some video on Jensen. His 2 seam has some pretty crazy arm side run to it so it's not just a flat velocity fastball

 

[zack54attack]

You see the rankings differ in baseball more than we do in football and basketball. The scouting and draft is completely different with baseball. I don't look too much into those rankings.

 

[CSF77]

found some video on Jensen. His 2 seam has some pretty crazy arm side run to it so it's not just a flat velocity fastball

All I saw was his tailing fastball. He is going to need to work on his off speed. Not bad but I question a 1st round pick on a 1 pitch pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

Michael McAvene | Rank: 174
School: LouisvilleYear: JuniorPosition: RHPAge: 21 DOB: 8/24/1997Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6'3" Weight: 207 lb.Previously drafted: Never
WATCH
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
The top pitcher in Louisville's 2016 recruiting class, McAvene was carving out a role as a freshman when he blew out his elbow in April. He returned to the mound a year later following Tommy John surgery and has emerged as the Cardinals' closer this spring. He offers additional intrigue because of the college relievers projected to go in the first five or six rounds, he might have the best chance to transition to starting in pro ball.
Coming out of the bullpen, McAvene sits at 93-95 mph and can reach 96 with riding life on his four-seam fastball. He's doing a better job of generating velocity without overthrowing this spring, helping his ability to pound the bottom of the strike zone. He backs it up with a low-80s breaking ball that combines slider power with curveball depth.
Both of McAvene's pitches grade as plus at their best, and he's throwing more strikes than ever. To succeed in a pro rotation, he'll need to develop a changeup after having little use for one to this point of his career. His strong 6-foot-3 frame is built for durability and his dramatically improved command bodes well for his future.

 

[beckdawg]

Fangraphs said he was up to 100 in the regionals. Draft coverage said he has a chance to start.

 

[beckdawg]

Also fangrpahs had him at 135. It's interesting that the cubs have now drafted 2 guys with 70 grade fastballs. This pick feels to me like it might be under slot though.

 

[zack54attack]

Well, McAvene has already had TJS. So he's had that taken care of..

 

[TL1961]

I certainly am not hung up on draft ranking. But short of scouting full time myself, they are areference worth looking at.

I realize they vary more in baseball than other sports, thus my lower level of interest in the mlb draft than the nfl draft.

I am occasionally interested to hear about prospects and rankings as a way to know how the org is doing, but I don’t read everything in a vacuum.

I just like to see the thoughts of people outside the organization as opposed to simply hearing from the GM. Every GM will talk up a prospect they just drafted. A little objectivity can be nice. It isn’t necessarily negativity.

In any sport I expect players to not fall exactly in line in career production to their draft order. That need not be said.

I most certainly trust the people doing the drafting for the Cubs even if I take their public statements with the necessary grain of salt.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs took Chris Clarke in the 4th. Draft coverage is saying pure reliever so almost certainly under slot in the 4th round.

 

[beckdawg]

5th round pick Josh Burgmann. Had big time k rate at 11.51 and a good walk rate at 2.51. Draft coverage said he might end up in a bullepn.

Gotta be honest.... this isn't how i saw the cubs draft going. I didn't expect anywhere near this many pitchers in the first 10 rounds. I was expecting bats as they already have a ton of pitching. But it is interesting they've drafted a bunch of college guys who may end up in the bullpen. That could be helpful for them in the next few years.

 

[CSF77]

5th round pick Josh Burgmann. Had big time k rate at 11.51 and a good walk rate at 2.51. Draft coverage said he might end up in a bullepn.

Gotta be honest.... this isn't how i saw the cubs draft going. I didn't expect anywhere near this many pitchers in the first 10 rounds. I was expecting bats as they already have a ton of pitching. But it is interesting they've drafted a bunch of college guys who may end up in the bullpen. That could be helpful for them in the next few years.

What I'm seeing is more tool types vs polish. That is lacking in the system.

Hitting wise their core is still young.

But I just see it as pitching is higher demand with injuries a normality in the game. It never hurts being over stocked.

 

[beckdawg]

What I'm seeing is more tool types vs polish. That is lacking in the system.

Hitting wise their core is still young.

But I just see it as pitching is higher demand with injuries a normality in the game. It never hurts being over stocked.

Well the issue isn't so much just about the MLB team. They have no depth in AA and A+ right now and they don't really have a ton of infield talent below A+.

 

[beckdawg]

Ethan Hearn | Rank: 67
School: Mobile Christian (Ala.) HSYear: SeniorPosition: CAge: 18 DOB: 8/31/2000Bats: L Throws: RHeight: 5'11" Weight: 199 lb.Commitment: Mississippi State
WATCH

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 35 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
Only two Alabama high school catchers ever have been selected in the first three rounds, and it hasn't happened in the last 50 years. Rated the top prep backstop in the 2019 Draft by some teams, Hearn could join James Kelly (Orioles, second round, 1966) and Lamar Johnson (White Sox, third, 1968) in that exclusive club. His talent and the relative lack of catching available this year is pushing him up boards.
Hearn's two most impressive tools are his raw power and pure arm strength, both of which grade as plus. He's a left-handed hitter whose strength and aggressive, pull-oriented mindset give him plenty of pop to right field. He has a quick release on his throws and can record 1.9-second pop times to second base.
A Mississippi State recruit, Hearn still requires some offensive and defensive polish. He needs to temper his approach at the plate because he doesn't always make consistent contact against quality pitching. He has improved as a receiver but still has more work to do and loses concentration more often than he should.

 

[beckdawg]

This appears where some of their slot money is going. They said on the draft coverage he probably is the best high school catcher in the draft.

 

[beckdawg]

BTW the cubs are gonna be super fucking deep at C. They already have Contreras obviously and Caratini isn't terrible. But in AA they have Jhonny Pereda. They have Amaya at A+. 2 of their IFA's they likely will sign in july are C's. So, adding another C is interesting to say the least.

 

[CSF77]

Well the issue isn't so much just about the MLB team. They have no depth in AA and A+ right now and they don't really have a ton of infield talent below A+.

Draft will not affect that. At best the 2nd round kid might shoot up if he signs fast. Get him a few weeks at Azl then push him to SB if the bat is advanced enough. Boise tends to be a spot for the HS talent from the previous draft and late signing.