***Official*** 2019 Spring Training Thread

[beckdawg]

His walk rate is a plus.

Tim Dirkes thought it was a chicken or the egg thing with Almora.

He can't hit righties.
He needs regular playing time to get better at it.

He thinks that he is a regular in general.

I just think that the Cubs are in produce or sit mode right now. That is why the booted Happ and brought up Zag. Zag hits and takes walks. Rest is bullshit on a contender.

Re: Almora vs RHP, i agree with the thought you let him play vs RHP to get better. But there's also a point of diminishing returns. For instance, do you have to start him against deGrom? I'm just using him as a stand in for an elite of elite type righty here but the point being if you're gonna give Almora a night off, that might be an ok game to do so. On the other hand, if you were to start almora vs some 3.50-4 ERA righty I think that's more fair.

That's honestly how I see teams doing splits for young guys with issues. It doesn't have to be all or nothing in terms of playing them vs a handed pitcher. You can pick the best match ups for a given player. For example, honestly maybe starting Almora vs someone like deGrom isn't so bad because deGrom naturally suppresses power anyways and has a high k rate. In other words, if Almora is facing him you'd expect him to put the ball in play cuz that's sort of Almora's thing. A LH bat might still struggle against deGrom even.

That's kinda what I'm getting at here. I'm not sure you have to have a hard and fast rule on who you play him against. If it's a rhp who gives up some power but still has good stuff maybe you sit him. If it's a RHP who like deGrom is a tough go for anyone maybe it doesn't matter. If it's your prototypical #3-4 starter sure why not give Almora opps.

 

[chibears55]

I would take my chances more with Almora starting against tougher RHers, then Heyward or Schwarber starting against LHers...

 

[beckdawg]

I would take my chances more with Almora starting against tougher RHers, then Heyward or Schwarber starting against LHers...

I think Schwarber just needs time vs LHP. He really didn't have significant splits in the minors. The issue there being that you don't really see LHP that much in the minors and especially not good LHP. IIRC he has hit better or similar to what Rizzo did during his early career vs LHP and obviously Rizzo eventually figured it out.

As for Heyward, when he's hitting well he's not that bad. For example take 2015. He hit .272/.344/.364 vs LHP and .301/.364/.470 vs RHP. Obviously he had no power vs LHP but it's not like he was an overall bad hitter.

 

[CSF77]

Sounds like Zag is on the roster. Now it comes down to Ryan and Roserio. I think they both know this and both pitched well tonight. I think Ryan has the edge.

As far as Almora is concerned. It really comes down to who is hitting. If Almora is getting owned by right and Zag is hitting neutral then O always wins.

It really comes down to wRC+. If he is at 50 vs R and Zag is 100 it is just common sense.

 

[anotheridiot]

Its such a tired argument, Schwarber vs left and Almora vs right when they get less than 20% of their at bats against those pitchers since they get benched. Hard to believe either of them made it to the majors, especially Almora, if he was not being able to hit righties.

Cubs are upper management are changing alot, making Maddon a true lame duck. Specifying when lineups are put together, telling players what time the bus is leaving every day, keeping junk food and beverages out of the locker room, mandatory batting practice. This is going to get ugly when the wrong hand gets the credit for a good start.

Len Kasper on the score this morning. The guy with the best stuff in the bullpen is.....................Tyler Chatwood.

 

[beckdawg]

Its such a tired argument, Schwarber vs left and Almora vs right when they get less than 20% of their at bats against those pitchers since they get benched. Hard to believe neither of them made it to the majors, especially Almora, if he was not being able to hit righties.

Well I don't particularly agree with those who super harp on the point. With that being said the data is out there. Both have been substantially worse in the majors at that. And even if it is a long term issue, for Schwarber I honestly don't care. You see lefties like 25% of the time. That's like 41 games a season. Even if you sit him half that you're basically talking about what is normal rest for players. And while there's a case to be made about him vs lefty relievers I think it's worth remembering what he did to Andrew Miller in the world series after having not played all year. I legit think it's just a case of him being so far advanced comparable to minor league pitching that none of them challenged him. I mean look at his AAA numbers. He was even dominating that competition. MLB pitchers found a way to challenge him. And it's not like he was bad last year. He just wasn't other worldly yet.

Almora's a bit of a different case. Schwarber has to hit or else what's the point. Almora could legit start on basically any team in the majors for his CF defense alone. Obviously the bars a bit higher on playoff contenders and unlike Schwarber.... he's gonna see a ton of righties. He's gotta do one of two things. Either A) he needs to find some power vs RHP or B) he needs to walk some. His .279/.308/.389 career triple slash isn't gonna cut it. That's a 85 wRC+. He doesn't have to MASSIVELY improve but were he to get to something like .280/.320/.400 he'd be perfectly fine. heyward hit .270/.335/.395 and was a 99 wRC+ or roughly league average. So that'd probably put Almora around a 95 wRC+ vs righties which given his defense is good enough given he's also cheap.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well I don't particularly agree with those who super harp on the point. With that being said the data is out there. Both have been substantially worse in the majors at that. And even if it is a long term issue, for Schwarber I honestly don't care. You see lefties like 25% of the time. That's like 41 games a season. Even if you sit him half that you're basically talking about what is normal rest for players. And while there's a case to be made about him vs lefty relievers I think it's worth remembering what he did to Andrew Miller in the world series after having not played all year. I legit think it's just a case of him being so far advanced comparable to minor league pitching that none of them challenged him. I mean look at his AAA numbers. He was even dominating that competition. MLB pitchers found a way to challenge him. And it's not like he was bad last year. He just wasn't other worldly yet.

Almora's a bit of a different case. Schwarber has to hit or else what's the point. Almora could legit start on basically any team in the majors for his CF defense alone. Obviously the bars a bit higher on playoff contenders and unlike Schwarber.... he's gonna see a ton of righties. He's gotta do one of two things. Either A) he needs to find some power vs RHP or B) he needs to walk some. His .279/.308/.389 career triple slash isn't gonna cut it. That's a 85 wRC+. He doesn't have to MASSIVELY improve but were he to get to something like .280/.320/.400 he'd be perfectly fine. heyward hit .270/.335/.395 and was a 99 wRC+ or roughly league average. So that'd probably put Almora around a 95 wRC+ vs righties which given his defense is good enough given he's also cheap.

There you go shitting all over Schwarbers defense. 11 outfield assists in 2/3rds the game Heyward played in, while Schwarber is pulled in one run games where you bench his bat.

Its the same argument. Rizzo goes 1-30 and "HE HAS TO PLAY HIMSELF OUT OF IT", You tell Schwarber and Almora they cant hit against same side pitching, even after Schwarber puts one on top of the scoreboard against a tough one, and eventually they start to believe it. You also get to the point of "why try?' the pricks gonna bench me anyway.

 

[CSF77]

There you go shitting all over Schwarbers defense. 11 outfield assists in 2/3rds the game Heyward played in, while Schwarber is pulled in one run games where you bench his bat.

Its the same argument. Rizzo goes 1-30 and "HE HAS TO PLAY HIMSELF OUT OF IT", You tell Schwarber and Almora they cant hit against same side pitching, even after Schwarber puts one on top of the scoreboard against a tough one, and eventually they start to believe it. You also get to the point of "why try?' the pricks gonna bench me anyway.

You lost at assists. That just factors his arm. Just like Fielding % factors balls that he got to vs balls that other left fielder's get to.

Say 100 balls are hit to left. Schwarber gets 60 of them and makes perfect throws etc. 60% clip.

Player 2 gets to 80 of them. Makes 10 errors. 70% clip.

By your logic Schwarber and his 100% accuracy is the better fielder. In reality player A gained 10% more outs.

That is why metrics matter and old school baseball terms don't.

 

[anotheridiot]

You lost at assists. That just factors his arm. Just like Fielding % factors balls that he got to vs balls that other left fielder's get to.

Say 100 balls are hit to left. Schwarber gets 60 of them and makes perfect throws etc. 60% clip.

Player 2 gets to 80 of them. Makes 10 errors. 70% clip.

By your logic Schwarber and his 100% accuracy is the better fielder. In reality player A gained 10% more outs.

That is why metrics matter and old school baseball terms don't.

Well, I guess you read shitting over Schwarber and think I am responding to you.

Thats why Rizzo does not get benched, because old school baseball is "the guy is in a rut, sit him" where metrics always will give you an excuse to defend an argument.

As far as arm? really? you have to get to the ball and pick it up to be able to throw it. So its better to have a guy that can get to anything but cant throw? That is your current defense to the latest discussion you butted into which will now become an argument.

 

[CSF77]

Well, I guess you read shitting over Schwarber and think I am responding to you.

Thats why Rizzo does not get benched, because old school baseball is "the guy is in a rut, sit him" where metrics always will give you an excuse to defend an argument.

As far as arm? really? you have to get to the ball and pick it up to be able to throw it. So its better to have a guy that can get to anything but cant throw? That is your current defense to the latest discussion you butted into which will now become an argument.

Rizzo is at 1B because he is good for 25Hr and 100 RBI'S with a .400 OBA annually. When he loses that no around of D will make a retention arguement valid.

Schwarber is in LF because it is the lowest demanding OF defender period. He is there for his bat. He is neutral effect as a defender. That is it.

 

[beckdawg]

There you go shitting all over Schwarbers defense.

Where did I mention one word about his defense being bad? I said he has to hit or what's the point? He's a fucking LF. LF's have to hit because it's a premium offensive position given you don't need great defenders there. I was contrasting Almora and Schwarber with the point comparing CF to LF. The average LF in 2018 hit .253/.325/.420 for a 102 wRC+. The average CF hit .249/.321/.400 for a 96 wRC+. In other words, the average CF is 6% worse and many of them play bad defense it's just the position is so scarce you play guys who can hit. That's how you ned up with guys like Charlie Blackmon out there with his -12.6 UZR/150 last year.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Interesting -- Schwarber just hit his first ST home run. Off of David Price, a lefty. A good lefty.

So, to all those saying that of course Schwarbs will ride the bench whenever a lefty is pitching, um... good things can happen. And trends can change, with work and perseverance.

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

So I know it's spring training and the results don't mean all that much but the cubs are tied for second in all of baseball with a +39 run diff in ST. Houston is +40. The Yankees are the other +39 team. And the cubs are kicking the shit out of Boston today in a game that isn't counted in that factor 13-2 atm. Cubs 221 runs scored leads the cactus league albeit a run friendly environment but also leads all of baseball.

 

[CSF77]

So I know it's spring training and the results don't mean all that much but the cubs are tied for second in all of baseball with a +39 run diff in ST. Houston is +40. The Yankees are the other +39 team. And the cubs are kicking the shit out of Boston today in a game that isn't counted in that factor 13-2 atm. Cubs 221 runs scored leads the cactus league albeit a run friendly environment but also leads all of baseball.

Games vs the Padre's should be omitted for Accuracy sake.

 

[beckdawg]

Games vs the Padre's should be omitted for Accuracy sake.

Not really sure that changes the narrative. Over this 31 game sample they are averaging north of 7 runs a game. Even if you take 24 out you're talking 197 runs in 30 games which is 6.6 runs a game plus whatever they end up finishing with today which will boost that number up some.

 

[CSF77]

Not really sure that changes the narrative. Over this 31 game sample they are averaging north of 7 runs a game. Even if you take 24 out you're talking 197 runs in 30 games which is 6.6 runs a game plus whatever they end up finishing with today which will boost that number up some.

I was kinda joking but in all reality compairing Azl games to FLA games is a unfair analysis to begin with. Just the humidity alone affects both areas. Pitchers can't get a feel of their breaking pitches in the low humidity causing dry baseballs.

Honestly you really can take each league as a independent vs balling them together.

 

[beckdawg]

I was kinda joking but in all reality compairing Azl games to FLA games is a unfair analysis to begin with. Just the humidity alone affects both areas. Pitchers can't get a feel of their breaking pitches in the low humidity causing dry baseballs.

Honestly you really can take each league as a independent vs balling them together.

I mean I feel like this is missing the point. Sure AZ is a good hitting environment. I'm not sitting here saying the cubs offense is best in baseball. I'm more pointing out that they are hitting really well.

For reference here are the run diff/scored/against totals in the maddon era

2019 - If the 14-2 total stands for today's game 235 for 184 against +51 in 32 games so far
2018 - 186 for 163 against +23 in 33 games
2017 - 222 for 216 against +6 in 31 games
2016 - 168 for 173 against -5 in 30 games
2015 - 185 for 193 against -8 in 32 games

So even by AZ standards 235 runs in 32 games is A LOT.

 

[CSF77]

Actually that is the reason why I take ST as a grain of salt for the Cubs. They are not seeing the same quality of pitching. The pitchers are playing in a disadvantage in Azl. Then they go to more humid and colder weather that favors pitching.

Smoke and mirrors right now.

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1110620893615554560

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Actually that is the reason why I take ST as a grain of salt for the Cubs. They are not seeing the same quality of pitching. The pitchers are playing in a disadvantage in Azl. Then they go to more humid and colder weather that favors pitching.

Smoke and mirrors right now.

Well, ST is Small Sample Size capitalized, so you can never take it with more than the proverbial salt grain. But they see the same ST pitching, and play pretty much the same mix of 40-man and non-40-man players (and even 25-man and non-25-man players) every spring.

So while you have to hedge your bets a lot, you can draw some conclusions from how a club plays in ST games, and comparing how they've played in each of the past three our four seasons. You just have to acknowledge that a whole lot of factors will impact all of the teams when they start playing real games, in colder climates, over the next week or three.

-Doug