Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

The hardest and easiest answer is Schwarber. Right now his is a platoon player. His value is trending right and holds what is it 3 years.

If you were looking to trade out contract to get Harper then he is the logical decision. The potential is there to get a needed transaction that frees up cash for Harper.

But it is a huge gamble on Schwarber because the numbers really suggest breakout but they also suggest platoon split.

It is almost a gamble that I would do to get Harper in and move Chatwood out.

I really can see a few teams tempted honestly just by the improvements made and the game changing potential

For me it is 3 years of control or long term control.

I think you're connecting things that aren't really related. There's the concern with schwarber and your thought that bote solves it. But finding players who hit LHP aren't that hard. Obviously the majority of players are right handed and obviously RH hitters tend to hit LHP. Additionally, you don't even see that many LHP in a given season. Last season the cubs had 1508 PAs vs LHP and 4861 vs RHP.

It's one thing if a guy truly crushes LHP. But as mentioned bote k'd 30% of the time vs LHP and while his triple slash looked good it was only 50 or so PAs with a very elevated BABIP. I have no doubt he probably hits LHP at a better rate than RHP. That doesn't suggest to me someone who's a lefty killer.

I'm not trying to run down Bote. He's a fine player. But i mean that literally. He's fine not great. The season is never going to hinge on whether or not he's with the team. However, the season may hinge on whether your relievers can get out of a jam either late in the season or in the playoffs. So, in my book, if you can package him with Chatwood to free up money to add a couple of decent relievers do it. You might even be saving yourself prospects in july if you nail the guys you sign a la cishek because if they don't have to go buy guys in july that's nice. And based on the current bullpen I gotta believe they would need a couple of guys in july anyways.

 

[CSF77]

I think you're connecting things that aren't really related. There's the concern with schwarber and your thought that bote solves it. But finding players who hit LHP aren't that hard. Obviously the majority of players are right handed and obviously RH hitters tend to hit LHP. Additionally, you don't even see that many LHP in a given season. Last season the cubs had 1508 PAs vs LHP and 4861 vs RHP.

It's one thing if a guy truly crushes LHP. But as mentioned bote k'd 30% of the time vs LHP and while his triple slash looked good it was only 50 or so PAs with a very elevated BABIP. I have no doubt he probably hits LHP at a better rate than RHP. That doesn't suggest to me someone who's a lefty killer.

I'm not trying to run down Bote. He's a fine player. But i mean that literally. He's fine not great. The season is never going to hinge on whether or not he's with the team. However, the season may hinge on whether your relievers can get out of a jam either late in the season or in the playoffs. So, in my book, if you can package him with Chatwood to free up money to add a couple of decent relievers do it. You might even be saving yourself prospects in july if you nail the guys you sign a la cishek because if they don't have to go buy guys in july that's nice. And based on the current bullpen I gotta believe they would need a couple of guys in july anyways.

I think they are better off status que right now. I would put pen depth at Strop, Cishek, Edwards, Montgomery, Chatwood, Kintzler, Duesing. and Morrow's injury replacement.

Strop had a 3.43 Fip and a 2.26 ERA so you can expect some regression.
Cishek 3.45 Fip and a 2.18 ERA. Ditto
Edwards: 2.93 Fip and a 2.60 ERA
Montgomery was a starter and we really can't compare here.


Then the issues start:

Chatwood. We have already gone over him enough and he might rebound in a limited role.
Kintzler...
his numbers sucked also but they are on the hook for 5 mil. Career wise he is a 3.76 Fip and a 3.48 ERA. He has done this or better in the past so unless he flat out lost velocity I'm not ready to jump off the fence here.

Duesing...He might have been a mental issue with I believe his grandfather passing away. He was off for sure. I believe that he settles around his career normal 4.14 Fip and 4.19 ERA which is fine for a 2nd lefty.

Depth wise they have Rosario and Ryan from the left. From the right I would look at Mills and Underwood as depth at this point.

 

[beckdawg]

I think they are better off status que right now. I would put pen depth at Strop, Cishek, Edwards, Montgomery, Chatwood, Kintzler, Duesing. and Morrow's injury replacement.

To me it comes down to this.... what's your contingency plan if Chatwood isn't fixed? You can't just have a guy with an 8 bb/9 coming in out of the bullpen. And you can't send him down to AAA. And that's setting aside the idea that maybe he's not better in the bullpen. Not all pitchers are. Should that happen your only option is cutting him which cuts twice because you're not only eating all his contract but you're also eating his replacement. Chatwood just doesn't work for me out of the bullpen. I would rather pay the price to get rid of him and have the flexibility in someone like Maples or Mekkes who you can reorganize in AAA as needed. Plus by ripping that bandaid off now you would have money in hand rather than just having to work around not having it if you were to cut him.

If you were making this same argument for Kintzler I think it's different. I can live with kintzler. But to me, the moment you pick up Hamels option is the moment you've decided to part ways with Chatwood.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I think you can live with them. I don't love Duensing and Kintzler but way I view them is they are guys you can just run into the ground in the early season if needed and you're likely looking to replace them anyways in july. If they do what i said above and do trade Chatwood, then maybe you have better replacements and don't need to trade. Regardless, I think you can work around their issues. If monty is your #1 LH reliever and solely used in the bullpen that really protects Duensing. And Kintzler can be managed solely in low leverage situations. I don't know how you manage Chatwood if his control is shot. You could start an inning with him and have him walk himself into trouble and throw away a game. You definitely can't use him in high leverage situations. And if you're already managing Duensing/Kintzler it's even harder to make Chatwood work.

 

[chibears55]

Heard on MLB network that Harper may take a gamble on himself and accept a 4 yr deal and become a FA again at 31...

 

[Castor76]

Chatwood, if kept, should just be used in bad start relief, say the starter gives up 4+ is 3 or less and the Cubs are going to use him to eat up innings and save the real pen guys.

I could hope Chatwood is really good in Spring Training and someone gets desperate maybe.

 

[Omeletpants]

I could hope Chatwood is really good in Spring Training and someone gets desperate maybe.

If he has a good spring then maybe he has turned it around? Why wouldnt you want to keep him if that happened?

 

[fatbeard]

Chatwood, if kept, should just be used in bad start relief, say the starter gives up 4+ is 3 or less and the Cubs are going to use him to eat up innings and save the real pen guys.

I could hope Chatwood is really good in Spring Training and someone gets desperate maybe.

Problem is that doesn't happen often enough to justify keeping him on the roster. You're taking up a bullpen spot that could be used on a pitcher who's actually consequential.

 

[Castor76]

If he has a good spring then maybe he has turned it around? Why wouldnt you want to keep him if that happened?

Because unless someone else is injured or not performing, He wouldn't be a starter on this team.

 

[Castor76]

Problem is that doesn't happen often enough to justify keeping him on the roster. You're taking up a bullpen spot that could be used on a pitcher who's actually consequential.

I did say "if kept." In a good baseball season, you'd only want to use 4 relievers anyway. 2 guys to get you to the 8th, set up and closer. You have 2 other guys to give any of them a day off if needed. So now you have one or two "long relief" guys for a staff.

 

[CSF77]

To me it comes down to this.... what's your contingency plan if Chatwood isn't fixed? You can't just have a guy with an 8 bb/9 coming in out of the bullpen. And you can't send him down to AAA. And that's setting aside the idea that maybe he's not better in the bullpen. Not all pitchers are. Should that happen your only option is cutting him which cuts twice because you're not only eating all his contract but you're also eating his replacement. Chatwood just doesn't work for me out of the bullpen. I would rather pay the price to get rid of him and have the flexibility in someone like Maples or Mekkes who you can reorganize in AAA as needed. Plus by ripping that bandaid off now you would have money in hand rather than just having to work around not having it if you were to cut him.

If you were making this same argument for Kintzler I think it's different. I can live with kintzler. But to me, the moment you pick up Hamels option is the moment you've decided to part ways with Chatwood.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I think you can live with them. I don't love Duensing and Kintzler but way I view them is they are guys you can just run into the ground in the early season if needed and you're likely looking to replace them anyways in july. If they do what i said above and do trade Chatwood, then maybe you have better replacements and don't need to trade. Regardless, I think you can work around their issues. If monty is your #1 LH reliever and solely used in the bullpen that really protects Duensing. And Kintzler can be managed solely in low leverage situations. I don't know how you manage Chatwood if his control is shot. You could start an inning with him and have him walk himself into trouble and throw away a game. You definitely can't use him in high leverage situations. And if you're already managing Duensing/Kintzler it's even harder to make Chatwood work.

You have to work with in their 40 man.

Alzolay lost a year. He would have to out perform everyone to get the 12th spot. I see him in Iowa.
Maples is not a sane answer
Mills IMO should be looked at very hard.
Norwood feels filler.
Rosario has walk issues also. Not outrageous though.
Ryan has upside and it seems that do like him.
Steels is in Alozay's boat. I could see both in Iowa's rotation and they push Mills and Underwood into the pen.
Wick...again filler

So I honestly see their 12th man as a rotation spot as last year to bring up a fresh arm as needed. Mills maybe a interesting solution as a 2 inning guy. Which pushes Chatwood and Montgomery into late inning situations.

Now if Chatwood tanks 100%. They have to flip for a bad contract or do what Tor did. But I think that they have to let this situation work it self out first. Chatwood came from a place that he had to push max effort to gain movement. Then those restrictions went away and he had no command. So this feels mechanical more than anything.

Which is why I feel he needs to lessen himself and commit to 2 pitches. He needs to focus on throwing strikes more than anything right now and having less weapons will pay off more. I think that he would be better served with his 3/4 arm slot to become a slider/cutter spec. and work on playing his pitches off each other. Small slide to big slide. After that focus on location and speed.

 

[CSF77]

I did say "if kept." In a good baseball season, you'd only want to use 4 relievers anyway. 2 guys to get you to the 8th, set up and closer. You have 2 other guys to give any of them a day off if needed. So now you have one or two "long relief" guys for a staff.

Teams have 8.

legit closer (Strop)
Set up (Cishek)
3rd arm to keep them fresh (Edwards)

Main lefty: Montgomery
2nd lefty: Duesing

2 inning guy: Chatwood right now.
then 2 arms for garbage innings. Right now Kintzler is 1. The 2nd I can see round robin to keep a fresh arm. Mills, Underwood, Roserio and Ryan would be the suspects. Most likely injury will emerge as always so this might end up a constant thing with the other 7 being influx with injury through out the season.

That is why I really don't see them going into the season with 8 locked in. It takes away flexibility.

 

[Castor76]

So we agree.

 

[CSF77]

So we agree.

I guess so.

I kinda want to call this one early. I'm predicting that the first starting pitcher that was drafted and self developed will end up Justin Steele. That kid showed us something last year post TJ by returning early and really not losing a beat 2.31 ERA 2.51 BB/9 10.23 SO/9 (this was post TJ recovery) . Good size 6'2" 195.

I see him in the Iowa rotation with Alzolay and the others get pushed aside for them. Unlike Alzolay Steele is a complete pitcher vs a 2 pitch pitcher so that is why I'm seeing Steele as the the guy that finally breaks the wall.

 

[beckdawg]

Now if Chatwood tanks 100%. They have to flip for a bad contract or do what Tor did. But I think that they have to let this situation work it self out first.

It's too late at that point. By the time you know whether he's broke or not you can't move him assuming he's broke. You're stuck eating his contract when spring training closes. The reason you make this sort of move now is every team thinks they can fix a guy. Well some just throw money at the problem and never worry about it but teams like Oakland and other small market teams specifically target guys like Chatwood because they are undervalued assets when you factor in how much a team like the cubs want to get rid of them. I mean the example I laid out is a perfect example. If SD likes Bote that much then where's the downside with them eating Chatwood? Best case they get Bote who they want really cheaply as well as maybe getting something out of Chatwood. Worst case they are effectively buying 6 years of team control for $25.5 mil and because they are running a young team that money doesn't matter so much. It's effectively the price they'd end up paying a FA 3B likely anyways. A dirt cheap starter is still likely to get $5-8 mil over 2-3 years.

Ultimately, if the cubs are going to try and stay under $246 mil and also actively want to do anything either in this offseason or during the trade deadline you gotta have more financial flexibility than they currently have.

 

[CSF77]

It's too late at that point. By the time you know whether he's broke or not you can't move him assuming he's broke. You're stuck eating his contract when spring training closes. The reason you make this sort of move now is every team thinks they can fix a guy. Well some just throw money at the problem and never worry about it but teams like Oakland and other small market teams specifically target guys like Chatwood because they are undervalued assets when you factor in how much a team like the cubs want to get rid of them. I mean the example I laid out is a perfect example. If SD likes Bote that much then where's the downside with them eating Chatwood? Best case they get Bote who they want really cheaply as well as maybe getting something out of Chatwood. Worst case they are effectively buying 6 years of team control for $25.5 mil and because they are running a young team that money doesn't matter so much. It's effectively the price they'd end up paying a FA 3B likely anyways. A dirt cheap starter is still likely to get $5-8 mil over 2-3 years.

Ultimately, if the cubs are going to try and stay under $246 mil and also actively want to do anything either in this offseason or during the trade deadline you gotta have more financial flexibility than they currently have.

Theo already said that the tax is not a factor this year. They do have a working budget and they can't spend what they don't have. So the 246 is honestly never going to come into play as from what we have seen to date they couldn't even add a 8 mil deal when they were 16M short of that peak.

I think that the budget is closer to 130M myself.

So flipping Chatwood and Bote for a arm or 2. Saves basically 13M which around 20M under budget. Not enough to nab Harper.

Like I said on this. I think that they should just fix him. That should be plan A there should be no plan b. Plan b is a escape clause for losers. As Arnold says winners fail but get back up. Losers quit.

If he lost velocity I would move on from him. Seeing how he was successful and then he comes over and flat out becomes a trainwreck? There are factors involved and it comes down to figuring out the why bit and then putting in the hard work.

 

[anotheridiot]

You have to work with in their 40 man.

Alzolay lost a year. He would have to out perform everyone to get the 12th spot. I see him in Iowa.
Maples is not a sane answer
Mills IMO should be looked at very hard.
Norwood feels filler.
Rosario has walk issues also. Not outrageous though.
Ryan has upside and it seems that do like him.
Steels is in Alozay's boat. I could see both in Iowa's rotation and they push Mills and Underwood into the pen.
Wick...again filler

So I honestly see their 12th man as a rotation spot as last year to bring up a fresh arm as needed. Mills maybe a interesting solution as a 2 inning guy. Which pushes Chatwood and Montgomery into late inning situations.

Now if Chatwood tanks 100%. They have to flip for a bad contract or do what Tor did. But I think that they have to let this situation work it self out first. Chatwood came from a place that he had to push max effort to gain movement. Then those restrictions went away and he had no command. So this feels mechanical more than anything.

Which is why I feel he needs to lessen himself and commit to 2 pitches. He needs to focus on throwing strikes more than anything right now and having less weapons will pay off more. I think that he would be better served with his 3/4 arm slot to become a slider/cutter spec. and work on playing his pitches off each other. Small slide to big slide. After that focus on location and speed.

How many years have we watched the cubs carry the extra pitcher. That is how it pans out right now
Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Quintana,
Monty, Dunce, Edwards, Strop, Ciscek, Kintzler, Chatwood, Morrow.

hoping for injuries is not a good strategy. and in Kintzler settles in to what he was in Minnesota and Washington, Edwards will be an extra guy.

 

[CSF77]

How many years have we watched the cubs carry the extra pitcher. That is how it pans out right now
Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Quintana,
Monty, Dunce, Edwards, Strop, Ciscek, Kintzler, Chatwood, Morrow.

hoping for injuries is not a good strategy. and in Kintzler settles in to what he was in Minnesota and Washington, Edwards will be an extra guy.

If you look at the data most of the season was injury ridden throughout baseball. Not having contingency plans in place is stupid. Teams are now utilizing their 40 man's for rotation. Keeping arms on a rotation promots development with limited exposure where they become viable assets vs hindrances

 

[anotheridiot]

If you look at the data most of the season was injury ridden throughout baseball. Not having contingency plans in place is stupid. Teams are now utilizing their 40 man's for rotation. Keeping arms on a rotation promots development with limited exposure where they become viable assets vs hindrances

Right, but my only point was the cubs are not going to all of the sudden start carrying only 12 pitchers and there are no jobs to win out of spring training with this roster without injuries period.

 

[CSF77]

Injury is always there. Morrow is the first in a trainride. But it is already in place so it is a pointless argument. They are going to end up with 16+ BP arms used

 

[CSF77]

I guess the way that I look at this situation is Morrow has created 1 opening. That is a opertunity for self development. Getting these younger pitchers some exposure is a good thing. I'm not a huge fan of signing AAAA cast off types. Wasted opertunity.

Now upgrading the other 7 takes trade. And let's face it these 7 are under Major league contracts so there is a trade or absorb contract and get no return value.

This is actually a issue that I have with tradeing Bote and Chatwood. You are downgrading your self just by packing up a AAAA depth player and a SP at his lowest value point. The return will end up garbage and the 13M saved is not going to improve your self.

I do feel that Harper would be a upgrade to Schwarber. But trading Schwarber and Chatwood moves 16+ mil vs 13 which becomes doable. Add to it your return wouldn't suck as bad. Chatwood is going to drag his return value down regardless but at least the players involved have a chance of making it vs never.