PFF ranking Mitch

remydat

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Not confused. Expected Points still uses points as the measurement, and the vast majority of NFL plays, even successful ones, don't result in points. Its an all or nothing criteria, which is even more ridiculous when you consider its being used for an INDIVIDUAL metric. You have no idea what you are talking about, which isn't a surprise since we've delved into statistics.

Your repeated example of teams scoring 50% of the time from a certain down and distance is ridiculous. Please tell me what down-and-distance would actually have a team scoring a TD 20% of the time, a FG 30% of the time, and nothing 50% of the time. Is Marc Trestman sending his FG team out on 2nd down again?

Not sure what "historical data" you keep referring to, but I assure you that the EPA is statistically insignificant. You have explained nothing.

SMH! You are being dense. It is calculating the expected points of teams that have 1st and 10 at the 50. The 20% is not a function of them scoring a TD on the next play. It is a function of how often NFL teams score on a drive where they have 1st and 10 at the 50. So the 20% is based on all plays from that point and whether they led to a TD, FG or zero points. Doesn't matter if the score came on the next play or 5 plays from now. The play by play data would tell you how often teams scored once it was 1st and 10 at the 50. All you have to do is review drive summaries for all NFL games and you can calculate the percentages across the NFL for a given time period.
 

SugarWalls

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Can any of the PFF lords out there tell me why trubisky’s EP is up there with Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson... but then chase Daniels comes in and plays with the same supporting cast and the same scheme, and he plays shit teams like the lions, and his EP is there with Jeff Driskel and josh Mccown
 

modo

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Can any of the PFF lords out there tell me why trubisky’s EP is up there with Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson... but then chase Daniels comes in and plays with the same supporting cast and the same scheme, and he plays shit teams like the lions, and his EP is there with Jeff Driskel and josh Mccown


luck.....
 

Rory Sparrow

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No one is telling anyone to like any stat. In fact the only entertainment I get out of something like EPA is that it makes you try to think analytically about those outliers like Mahomes or Trubisky.

How can you, personally, think 'analytically' about something that you have no understanding or? I'm lost here.
 

xer0h0ur

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Yeah, remydat answered "ostensibly", but it made no sense. I guess I wasn't clear...I am seeking an answer that actually makes sense. Since you are so intelligent, I am sure you will be happy to provide an explanation. For the fourth time, please tell me what down-and-distance would actually have a team scoring a TD 20% of the time, a FG 30% of the time, and nothing 50% of the time.

I admit I've never heard of "EP" before, yet you criticize me for not knowing who Brian Burke is and that the stat was born in the 80's. Makes sense.

So, in sum, my understanding is that you posted some chart that compares one make believe "stat" (PFF grading) to another make believe "stat" (Doris Burke's EP), and then you are surprised that there isn't a 1:1 relationship between the "stats". Wow!

Boy, you need coffee or something? Because you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. I never posted any stat, picture, tweet or whatever the hell else you want to claim. Some dude at PFF thinks that EPA somehow substantiates their shit. Therefore he posted it. We have clearly established that nearly everyone on CCS hates PFF's subjective grading. So in summary, idk why you're even arguing.
 

Rory Sparrow

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SMH! You are being dense. It is calculating the expected points of teams that have 1st and 10 at the 50. The 20% is not a function of them scoring a TD on the next play. It is a function of how often NFL teams score on a drive where they have 1st and 10 at the 50. So the 20% is based on all plays from that point and whether they led to a TD, FG or zero points. Doesn't matter if the score came on the next play or 5 plays from know. The play by play data would tell you how often teams scored once it was 1st and 10 at the 50.

What?! That makes even less sense. Is it total points, or frequency of scoring? Why even bother parsing it out by down, yardage to go, and distance? Why not just use distance?
 

remydat

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remydat

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Can any of the PFF lords out there tell me why trubisky’s EP is up there with Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson... but then chase Daniels comes in and plays with the same supporting cast and the same scheme, and he plays shit teams like the lions, and his EP is there with Jeff Driskel and josh Mccown

Because Trubs is a better QB. To be clear, EPA is not PFF. EPA is saying Trubs has outperformed the historical EPs given the down, distance, and FP he has had. PFF is saying Trubs has graded out worse than his EPA.

So as glider was saying, PFF is arguing that is a function of scheme or luck but it could also simply mean their grades for Trubisky are wrong. The closer a player is to that blue line then the closer EPA and PFF are aligned. So for those guys, you can argue that there are 2 independent sources with a similar view on said player. However, for the guys that are far away from the blue line ie Trubs and Mahommes, what it is saying is that EPA holds them in higher regard than PFF. Or for Daniel it is saying PFF has Daniel rated higher than his EPA would suggest.

What I would take from all of this is that for guys where the EPA and PFF are close, you can probably say PFF does a fairly decent job grading them. For guys where the EPA and PFF grade are out of whack, there is a disconnect there that we don't have any good answers for and people are free to accept whatever theory they choose to explain that disconnect.
 

gilder121

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Well he graded out higher last year because his supporting cast was shit and so he had to make a lot of tight throws. By contrast, his supporting cast is better and guys are schemed open more so he is making easier throws. Same thing with Mahommes who if I recall has the most passes to wide open WRs as anyone in the NFL.
Yeah, that's consistent with the things the chart is supposed to tell you.

None of us has access to their raw data. The best we can do when trying to evaluate their data is look for things like consistency among outliers (not in any way limited to EPA) and postulate based on that.

I've mentioned my issue with them previously in this thread. My impression based on their outward communication is that they don't care all that much about identifying gaps in their data and almost never contemplate them publicly. When you consider the amount of context that's removed in grading players on that type of system (by design), it seems silly.

If we had access to their play by play grading, I have a feeling most would have less respect for them than they already do.
 

modo

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Trying to compare two subjective stats adds more shitty variables that may or may not be right is almost pointless. EPA and PFF could show some similarities but still both not jibe with reality....it doesn't mean they are right together, it could mean they are wrong together....
 

gilder121

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Trying to compare two subjective stats adds more shitty variables that may or may not be right is almost pointless. EPA and PFF could show some similarities but still both not jibe with reality....it doesn't mean they are right together, it could mean they are wrong together....

That's a problem with most NFL statistics. You could certainly do worse than comparing something that attempts to grade input, charting against how it compares to one that estimates output. That's also why you don't just compare to one measure and assume you know the whole story.
 

modo

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That's a problem with most NFL statistics. You could certainly do worse than comparing something that attempts to grade input, charting against how it compares to one that estimates output. That's also why you don't just compare to one measure and assume you know the whole story.

The problem with PFF is measuring inputs. They assume their measuring stick is correct when,in fact, it could be horribly flawed. Their are two many variables to understand and that they cannot account for.

They make assertions that Trubisky has regressed from year one to year two and that he is worse than 34 other QBs in the league. The eye does not match what they state so they just chalk it up to luck. That is a lazy way of defending their conclusion.
 

bearmick

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This is absolutely just mind blowing. Anyone on here who is not a fan of Mitch can even agree, this list is absolute shit. They put Mitch near the bottom, even behind Sam Darnold and Eli Manning. You can argue that he isnt even top 10 but not even top 20? But the top 30!?! Just wow.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-final-list-of-pffs-highest-graded-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl-in-2018

He isn't a top 20 QB. His inadequacies are masked by a great system with great play calling, and even then the offensive output is barely average when you factor in the amount of points they've gotten via turnovers, whether by defensive TDs or short fields. He's a bottom quadrant QB who will look like an average QB thanks to Nagy and the defense. He will be the second best QB on the field in any playoff game they may play.
 

bearmick

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PFF has never once been even close to accurate in their rankings.

Unless their numbers favor Bears players, in which case you homers suddenly agree with them.
 

Midway Fields

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He isn't a top 20 QB. His inadequacies are masked by a great system with great play calling, and even then the offensive output is barely average when you factor in the amount of points they've gotten via turnovers, whether by defensive TDs or short fields. He's a bottom quadrant QB who will look like an average QB thanks to Nagy and the defense. He will be the second best QB on the field in any playoff game they may play.

Hahahahahahaha
 

Kurtosis

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Good to see you back.
 

Midway Fields

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Thanks, but I won't be around much. The homerism on this board lately sickens me.

Bears are 12-4, what do you want?

You really expect for Bears fans to act like the QB is POS lol.
 

Kurtosis

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Thanks, but I won't be around much. The homerism on this board lately sickens me.

That’s too bad. I don’t necessarily agree with your take(s) on Trubisky, but opposing opinions are valuable for the sake of discourse on this board nonetheless.

Maybe things will get better around here moving forward.
 

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