PFF ranking Mitch

[bearmick]

Bears are 12-4, what do you want?

You really expect for Bears fans to act like the QB is POS lol.

Do you have to respond to every post I make? Go find another bad QB to idolize; you're due for a new name.

 

[gilder121]

They assume their measuring stick is correct when,in fact, it could be horribly flawed.

I tend to agree with everything you said, but just to clarify, this really isn't that different than traditional scouting where certain scouts may just not be very good at evaluating some things. The key is to find the strengths and weaknesses. I tend to think the PFF model DOES have strengths, but it isn't worth anyone's time to try and convince a forum of people that have already made final conclusions years ago.

 

[Penny Traitor]

Thanks, but I won't be around much. The homerism on this board lately sickens me.

I could deal with the homerism, but this new breed of Militant Meatballs that wish to hang you with barbed-wire these days is borderline frightening.

Much love Mick, but just run....

 

[Midway Fields]

Do you have to respond to every post I make? Go find another bad QB to idolize; you're due for a new name.

Quit being a little bitch.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Boy, you need coffee or something? Because you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. I never posted any stat, picture, tweet or whatever the hell else you want to claim. Some dude at PFF thinks that EPA somehow substantiates their shit. Therefore he posted it. We have clearly established that nearly everyone on CCS hates PFF's subjective grading. So in summary, idk why you're even arguing.

Between you and remydat, I am truly lost in this thread. I keep saying "I don't know what EPA is, you apparently do as you claim it makes you think analytically...could you please explain it to me?" You refuse to offer any explanation whatsoever, which leads me to believe you are completely ignorant on the subject and are just trying (lamely) to appear smart. The pointlessness of remydat's "explanations" is matched only by its shiftiness..."its points per play...I can't believe you aren't understanding this, its points per drive....wait, now its frequency of scoring...I can't believe you aren't catching on to this....here is an ESPN link..."

 

[Bearly]

Almost everyone here has Mitch in the middle 3rd of QBs. If that's being a homer, sign me up.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

You can't be this dense. Here is ESPN's version. Feel free to write them a letter if you are still confused.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8379024/nfl-explaining-expected-points-metric

Holy cow! That explanation had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR "EXPLANATION"! WHAT ON EARTH WERE YOU TALKING ABOUT????

Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The value it puts out is on a scale from about minus-3 to 7, and it basically represents "which team is likely to score next, and how many points?" It represents the likely points not just on the current drive but also on the next drive or any subsequent drive until the score changes or the half ends. A lower value indicates a more favorable situation for the defense (i.e. fourth-and-20 from your own 1-yard line could be close to minus-3 EP), and a higher value represents a more favorable situation for the offense (i.e. first-and-goal is generally worth 6 EP).

 

[Rory Sparrow]

and here is an explanation of why there are issues with EPA

warning...you really need to care about the math and not what some talking head tells you........EPA is very complicated

http://jhermsmeyer.com/why-expected-points-are-broken

Thanks, that is what I expected. remydat's example of how often a team scores from the opponent's 1 yard line was perhaps the worst hypothetical a person with any statistical sense could have come up with. It completely glosses over the issue with EPA, which is the "data system" is already derivative in itself, and when you continue to layer in more complexity/variables, you get so far away from hard data and have enlarged your margin of error to the point where the EPA is almost random.

As the author said in the conclusion, the whole basis of EPA is to show how much an individual player is helping his team win, and EPA does not show this any more definitively than your general counting stats. Its just an exercise of statistical futility, which seems right up remydat's alley.


Finally, LOL at xer0h0ur thanking your post. I don't think words can describe his ignorance on this subject.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Quit being a little bitch.

Hard to when the bitch is in your blood.

 

[remydat]

Holy cow! That explanation had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR "EXPLANATION"! WHAT ON EARTH WERE YOU TALKING ABOUT????

Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The value it puts out is on a scale from about minus-3 to 7, and it basically represents "which team is likely to score next, and how many points?" It represents the likely points not just on the current drive but also on the next drive or any subsequent drive until the score changes or the half ends. A lower value indicates a more favorable situation for the defense (i.e. fourth-and-20 from your own 1-yard line could be close to minus-3 EP), and a higher value represents a more favorable situation for the offense (i.e. first-and-goal is generally worth 6 EP).

You struggle with reading comprehension.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

You struggle with reading comprehension.

great

/end thread

 

[Quik_7_Devin]

Almost everyone here has Mitch in the middle 3rd of QBs. If that's being a homer, sign me up.

Based on passing stats and all around playmaking, Mitch is safely middle of the pack, arguably just outside the top 10.

This Sunday Trubs will face the 30th ranked pass D, its set up for him to "level up" and hopefully a long Bear playoff run.

 

[Bearly]

Because Trubs is a better QB. To be clear, EPA is not PFF. EPA is saying Trubs has outperformed the historical EPs given the down, distance, and FP he has had. PFF is saying Trubs has graded out worse than his EPA.

So as glider was saying, PFF is arguing that is a function of scheme or luck but it could also simply mean their grades for Trubisky are wrong. The closer a player is to that blue line then the closer EPA and PFF are aligned. So for those guys, you can argue that there are 2 independent sources with a similar view on said player. However, for the guys that are far away from the blue line ie Trubs and Mahommes, what it is saying is that EPA holds them in higher regard than PFF. Or for Daniel it is saying PFF has Daniel rated higher than his EPA would suggest.

What I would take from all of this is that for guys where the EPA and PFF are close, you can probably say PFF does a fairly decent job grading them. For guys where the EPA and PFF grade are out of whack, there is a disconnect there that we don't have any good answers for and people are free to accept whatever theory they choose to explain that disconnect.

Better to be perceived lucky and winning tgan oerceived good and losing.

 

[Mongo_76]

You are confused. If it is first and 10 at the 50 yard line, there is still historical data on the expected points teams for teams based on that down, distance and FG. If historically they ended up scoring a TD 20% of the time, a FG 30% of the time or nothing 50% of the time, the EP would be 2.1.

If a QB then throws a 20 yard pass and it is now 1st and 10 at the 30, you can then calculate the expected points for a team historically at the 30 yard line and then the difference between the EP at the 50 and the EP at the 30 would be how many expected points the QB added. So for every down, distance and FP, you calculate the EPA by a given player based on the new EP of the new down, distance, FP that a give play yielded.

Also, PFF doesn't use this. Separate system. I think what Glider was saying is that PFF was claiming their grading was consistent with this EPA model not that they use this model. In any event, you asked what EP was and I have now explained it to you.

Why do you so vehemently defend PFF?

I'm just curious because this has been going on for years now.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Why do you so vehemently defend PFF?

I'm just curious because this has been going on for years now.

Are you really asking someone who is an auditor for a living why they love data? You are actually dumber than I thought.

 

[Mongo_76]

Are you really asking someone who is an auditor for a living why they love data? You are actually dumber than I thought.

Hmm...

Not even close to what I asked.

So, maybe you're dumber than you thought. But not dumber than I thought. You've set a low bar.

Carry on.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Are you really asking someone who is an auditor for a living why they love data? You are actually dumber than I thought.

If remydat is indeed an auditor (he once claimed that he had 'multiple' masters degrees), then the real question is how someone with absolutely no understanding of mathematics became an auditor. You don't seem to be very good with statistics, either, FWIW. Yet here you are. Again.

 

[Bearly]

Based on passing stats and all around playmaking, Mitch is safely middle of the pack, arguably just outside the top 10.

This Sunday Trubs will face the 30th ranked pass D, its set up for him to "level up" and hopefully a long Bear playoff run.

Eagles have come around and just got done beating Goff and Watson. They've been great at shutting down the run and keeping you one dimensional of late. You'll get passing stats but still lose. We will need to try and maintain some balance on O and stop a quick passing attack on D. Something we've had trouble with this year. I expect to win but the game should prove more interesting than some expect.

 

[bearmick]

Hard to when the bitch is in your blood.

I pay you absolutely no heed whatsoever, yet you take every opportunity to issue personal insults towards me (and countless others) on a daily basis on this forum.

Doesn't take a professional psychologist to figure out who the real life bitch is around here. You are clearly an insecure and deeply unhappy man.

 

[Monster]

The Bears top ranked offensive players on PFF by position...

21 - TE. Burton
25 - RB. Cohen
33 - QB. Trubisky
33 - WR. Robinson
34 - RB. Howard

For perspective:

2 - TE. OJ Howard (above Ertz/Kelce)
29 - RB. Ezekiel Elliot (1 is Chubb)
10 - QB. Fitzpatrick (Big Ben 16 - Brees 1)
25- WR. Antonio Brown (Hopkins 1 - Edelman 30)