jive
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Since it's the offseason, I've been doing some analysis and found that Ryan Pace is the best GM in terms of draft picks since Jerry Vanisi. What I did was count the number of draft picks made by each GM and determine how many exceptional players were picked by them as well as solid contributors. I defined an exceptional player as one who made All Pro, All Rookie, or stats worthy of either. How I defined a solid contributor was a combination of number of games played and stats, as well as whether they provided some value in trade. Exceptional players were included in the contributor category. Since Tobin and Vanisi had more rounds of drafts than the others, I just chose the first 8 rounds of picks for them. Here's the breakdown:
Ryan Pace (27 draft picks): 9 exceptional (33%) and 17 contributors (63%)
Notable picks: Roquan Smith, MitchellTrubisky, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, Cody Whitehair, Jordan Howard, Eddie Goldman, Leonard Floyd, Adrian Amos
Phil Emery (20 draft picks): 4 exceptional (20%) and 7 contributors (35%)
Notable picks: Kyle Fuller, Charles Leno, Kyle Long, Alshon Jeffery
Jerry Angelo (82 draft picks): 14 exceptional (17%) and 38 contributors (46%)
Notable picks: Henry Melton, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, Corey Graham, Devin Hester, Mark Anderson, Tommie Harris, Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Anthony Thomas, Chris Harris, Danieal Manning
Mark Hatley (40 draft picks): 7 exceptional (18%) and 14 contributors (35%) Includes one HOFer
Notable Picks: Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown, Marty Booker, Jerry Azumah, Olin Kreutz, Tony Parrish, Paul Edinger
Ron Graves (30 draft picks): 3 exceptional (10%) and 11 contributors (37%)
Notable picks: Walt Harris, Todd Sauerbrun, Curtis Conway
Bill Tobin (55 draft picks): 6 exceptional (11%) and 20 contributors (36%)
Notable picks: Mark Carrier, Donnell Woolford, Trace Armstrong, Jim Harbaugh, Jerry Fontenot, John Roper
Jerry Vanisi (20 picks): 4 exceptional (20%) and 10 contributors (50%)
Notable picks: Neal Anderson, Kevin Butler, Wilber Marshall, Shaun Gayle
*Corrected once I was reminded that Vanisi came in after the 83 draft*
I understand that these are not all on the GM, and that the head coach has influence on these picks. Ditka and Wannstedt were especially heavy handed in the draft and it showed in their horrible rates of finding great players. I truly believe that Wannstedt was instrumental in the Bears collapse in the 90s that took us years to recover from. Also, the rate of contributors for Pace is a little skewed as those players have not played as many games as other players that I counted as contributors in previous eras. That rate could drop since many contributors have played less than 3 seasons, and could fizzle out like many in the NFL do. However, when you look at the number of All Pro or All Rookie players that Pace has selected, only Vanisi exceeds him and no-one else comes close in percentage.
The main reason the Bears had success in the late 80s is because of the players that were drafted by Vanisi and Finks, not because of Tobin. The poor drafting during the Tobin era fueled the collapse of the Beloved in the 90s that Wanny threw a match on and played his fiddle while the Chi burned. The low number of draft picks that were solid contributors during the 90s, along with poor trades and free agent signings during that time as well, made for a painful downward spiral to experience. It's like watching your best friend forced to go shop lift tampons for his old lady, only to get busted by the cops and sent to prison and sold to Big Nate for a pack of Marlboros. We were crappy for a decade. Slick Jerry lasted a long time considering his mediocrity, but he was much better than his predecessors in selecting good players and players that could stick around. Heck, we even managed to get a Superbowl team together during that span. But, a string of bad drafts, and Jerry had to go bye-bye. In comes Emery who reverts to pre-Angelo ways. But at least he didn't last that long.
From a statistical standpoint, I think Pace is doing a good job. His first draft was iffy, but he was much better the following years. If you take away his first draft, Pace still has a 33% rate on exceptional players, and a whopping 71% on solid contributors. I hope he continues to improve, but hitting on 2/3rds of your draft picks is better than 1/3 during the Bears' Dark Ages. Although we had to endure 3 awful seasons of losing football, Pace quietly assembled a great team. Even though the record didn't show it during those years, he was getting players that were exceptional and were solid contributors. We just needed a coach and a scheme for them, and it was proven when the Bears went from cellar dweller to division winner in 2018.
Aside from just the draft, Pace has done a better job in free agency. I won't recount the numerous terrible trades and free agent busts from the Wannstedt era because it's too painful. It was awful. Interestingly, aside from Steve McMichael, we didn't have that many free agents that were starters until after Tobin. Angelo was certainly an improvement over his recent predecessors, but still mediocre IMO. I'll have to check that out another day. Aside from Pace's first year, his free agent and trade splashes have been pretty good. We have 1 pro bowler from FA, 1 pro bowler from a trade, and 4 solid starters.
At this point, I'm willing to give Pace the benefit of the doubt. He's shown that he can marshall talent at a higher clip than his predecessors.
Ryan Pace (27 draft picks): 9 exceptional (33%) and 17 contributors (63%)
Notable picks: Roquan Smith, MitchellTrubisky, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, Cody Whitehair, Jordan Howard, Eddie Goldman, Leonard Floyd, Adrian Amos
Phil Emery (20 draft picks): 4 exceptional (20%) and 7 contributors (35%)
Notable picks: Kyle Fuller, Charles Leno, Kyle Long, Alshon Jeffery
Jerry Angelo (82 draft picks): 14 exceptional (17%) and 38 contributors (46%)
Notable picks: Henry Melton, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, Corey Graham, Devin Hester, Mark Anderson, Tommie Harris, Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Anthony Thomas, Chris Harris, Danieal Manning
Mark Hatley (40 draft picks): 7 exceptional (18%) and 14 contributors (35%) Includes one HOFer
Notable Picks: Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown, Marty Booker, Jerry Azumah, Olin Kreutz, Tony Parrish, Paul Edinger
Ron Graves (30 draft picks): 3 exceptional (10%) and 11 contributors (37%)
Notable picks: Walt Harris, Todd Sauerbrun, Curtis Conway
Bill Tobin (55 draft picks): 6 exceptional (11%) and 20 contributors (36%)
Notable picks: Mark Carrier, Donnell Woolford, Trace Armstrong, Jim Harbaugh, Jerry Fontenot, John Roper
Jerry Vanisi (20 picks): 4 exceptional (20%) and 10 contributors (50%)
Notable picks: Neal Anderson, Kevin Butler, Wilber Marshall, Shaun Gayle
*Corrected once I was reminded that Vanisi came in after the 83 draft*
I understand that these are not all on the GM, and that the head coach has influence on these picks. Ditka and Wannstedt were especially heavy handed in the draft and it showed in their horrible rates of finding great players. I truly believe that Wannstedt was instrumental in the Bears collapse in the 90s that took us years to recover from. Also, the rate of contributors for Pace is a little skewed as those players have not played as many games as other players that I counted as contributors in previous eras. That rate could drop since many contributors have played less than 3 seasons, and could fizzle out like many in the NFL do. However, when you look at the number of All Pro or All Rookie players that Pace has selected, only Vanisi exceeds him and no-one else comes close in percentage.
The main reason the Bears had success in the late 80s is because of the players that were drafted by Vanisi and Finks, not because of Tobin. The poor drafting during the Tobin era fueled the collapse of the Beloved in the 90s that Wanny threw a match on and played his fiddle while the Chi burned. The low number of draft picks that were solid contributors during the 90s, along with poor trades and free agent signings during that time as well, made for a painful downward spiral to experience. It's like watching your best friend forced to go shop lift tampons for his old lady, only to get busted by the cops and sent to prison and sold to Big Nate for a pack of Marlboros. We were crappy for a decade. Slick Jerry lasted a long time considering his mediocrity, but he was much better than his predecessors in selecting good players and players that could stick around. Heck, we even managed to get a Superbowl team together during that span. But, a string of bad drafts, and Jerry had to go bye-bye. In comes Emery who reverts to pre-Angelo ways. But at least he didn't last that long.
From a statistical standpoint, I think Pace is doing a good job. His first draft was iffy, but he was much better the following years. If you take away his first draft, Pace still has a 33% rate on exceptional players, and a whopping 71% on solid contributors. I hope he continues to improve, but hitting on 2/3rds of your draft picks is better than 1/3 during the Bears' Dark Ages. Although we had to endure 3 awful seasons of losing football, Pace quietly assembled a great team. Even though the record didn't show it during those years, he was getting players that were exceptional and were solid contributors. We just needed a coach and a scheme for them, and it was proven when the Bears went from cellar dweller to division winner in 2018.
Aside from just the draft, Pace has done a better job in free agency. I won't recount the numerous terrible trades and free agent busts from the Wannstedt era because it's too painful. It was awful. Interestingly, aside from Steve McMichael, we didn't have that many free agents that were starters until after Tobin. Angelo was certainly an improvement over his recent predecessors, but still mediocre IMO. I'll have to check that out another day. Aside from Pace's first year, his free agent and trade splashes have been pretty good. We have 1 pro bowler from FA, 1 pro bowler from a trade, and 4 solid starters.
At this point, I'm willing to give Pace the benefit of the doubt. He's shown that he can marshall talent at a higher clip than his predecessors.
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