Someone want to decode #1 overall pick smokescreens for me?

[xer0h0ur]

I can't for the life of me understand what the fuck the purpose of smokescreens are for any team that is ever holding the #1 overall pick? They can literally take whomever the hell they want. So exactly what purpose is there to it then?

 

[Ares]

You've been smokescreen'd on the purpose of smokescreens.... dayum

 

[HeHateMe]

I can't for the life of me understand what the fuck the purpose of smokescreens are for any team that is ever holding the #1 overall pick? They can literally take whomever the hell they want. So exactly what purpose is there to it then?

Trading potential.

 

[TL1961]

I can't for the life of me understand what the fuck the purpose of smokescreens are for any team that is ever holding the #1 overall pick? They can literally take whomever the hell they want. So exactly what purpose is there to it then?

My guess would be that if you leak that you are not taking Murray, for example, you would get some idea of what teams who do want him would be willing to give you. Or just getting an idea of which teams want which players, so if you were considering a trade down, it may help gauge who would be picked before the spot you move down to.

 

[gpphat]

To gauge trade interest

 

[HeHateMe]

To gauge trade interest

Trading potential.

Both of these ^^^

PLUS:

if there is some sort of trade in the works then why would they want other teams to know what they are doing with another team? Lack of discretion could blow up a deal they are working.

 

[gpphat]

Both of these ^^^

PLUS:

if there is some sort of trade in the works then why would they want other teams to know what they are doing with another team? Lack of discretion could blow up a deal they are working.

Think of it like this...I have zero interest in black friday deals, but let's say I decided to get the first spot at Best Buy and as the line starts wrapping around the building I send a friend of mine to go down the line to see what someone one would pay to take my spot in line. Then all I have to decide on is what is being offered worth more than a Toshiba TV. Chances are anything more than a crisp Ulysses S. Grant will get a deal done

 

[Dragon Slayer]

Think of it like this...I have zero interest in black friday deals, but let's say I decided to get the first spot at Best Buy and as the line starts wrapping around the building I send a friend of mine to go down the line to see what someone one would pay to take my spot in line. Then all I have to decide on is what is being offered worth more than a Toshiba TV. Chances are anything more than a crisp Ulysses S. Grant will get a deal done

And if you're real lucky, @xer0h0ur will be standing in line with literal hundreds of dollars on him

 

[gpphat]

And if you're real lucky, @xer0h0ur will be standing in line with literal hundreds of dollars on him

him or @zack54attack ....zack cant resist a Toshiba TV on black Friday

 

[Les Grossman]

To gauge trade interest

But like why do they have to interest? If anything that works against them. Some team would like try to lowball you if you don’t have a prospect you supposedly like.

 

[dabears70]

I can't for the life of me understand what the fuck the purpose of smokescreens are for any team that is ever holding the #1 overall pick? They can literally take whomever the hell they want. So exactly what purpose is there to it then?

To get the most they can to get a team to trade up for that pick. Come on now Xero you know this.

 

[gpphat]

But like why do they have to interest? If anything that works against them. Some team would like try to lowball you if you don’t have a prospect you supposedly like.

Just because they low-ball you does not mean you have to accept. Like I said, it's to gauge interest.

If the Cardinals are advertising that Murray is their pick and they love Murray, than anyone who would be interested in Murray knows it will take a Kings Ransom. But if the Cardinals are not interested in Murray and no one knows that, they may throw out an offer and it benefits the Cardinals to take that deal. Similar to the Bears trading up for Trubisky, everyone was certain the Niners likely werent taking Trubisky but the Bears offered them a deal and they were able to move down 1 spot and still get who they were originally wanting.

Let's go back to the black friday example, if I am sitting at the front of the line telling everyone that the doorbuster Toshiba TV is a literal piece of garbage, when I start seeking offers I may not get a stacks of hundred dollar bills. But if everyone behind me has no idea what my thoughts are on said Toshiba TV, then I will get some decent offers because there are always a group of people who think Toshiba TV's are quality

 

[Les Grossman]

Just because they low-ball you does not mean you have to accept. Like I said, it's to gauge interest.

If the Cardinals are advertising that Murray is there pick and they love Murray, than anyone who would be interested in Murray knows it will take a Kings Ransom. But if the Cardinals are not interested in Murray and no one knows that, they may throw out an offer and it benefits the Cardinals to take that deal. Similar to the Bears trading up for Trubisky, everyone was certain the Niners likely werent taking Trubisky but the Bears offered them a deal and they were able to move down 1 spot and still get who they were originally wanting.

Let's go back to the black friday example, if I am sitting at the front of the line telling everyone that the doorbuster Toshiba TV is a literal piece of garbage, when I start seeking offers I may not get a stacks of hundred dollar bills. But if everyone behind me has no idea what my thoughts are on said Toshiba TV, then I will get some decent offers because there are always a group of people who think Toshiba TV's are quality

And that's the point. If I was trading away the #1 pick, I sure as hell wouldn't waste my time with offers that are testing the waters. Meh.

 

[gallagher]

So recall that the plans for the teams owning the second, third, and fourth picks (and so on) are all built on conditions because they don't know what you're going to do. Those teams are rivals to you, and also your trading partners.

If they don't know who you are looking at, then there is more time they spend looking at the guy you want to take, and less time they spend scouting others. Your smokescreen is a small way of helping them make a mistake down the road just because of time constraints.

Further, if you want to trade down, you want no part of your hand tipped. If the trading partner thinks you're interested in their guy, they'll offer more to get him. Plus, your trading partner also view the people behind your pick as rivals. The less your rivals know about your plans, the more likely they are to make a mistake or overcommit.

And finally, it's good press. This is the entertainment industry and people like drama.

 

[gpphat]

And that's the point. If I was trading away the #1 pick, I sure as hell wouldn't waste my time with offers that are testing the waters. Meh.

I guess it comes down to who is offering the trade, let's say the Giants are making an offer and it's not breaking the bank but a solid offer. If AZ is not interested in Murray but have Josh Allen at the top of their draft board and they feel they can still get him with the Giants pick and net a few more picks in the process, why not take that. But if the Giants know that AZ wants Murray, then it is likely to take an unrealistic offer to make that move. NYG might as well stand pat and hope Haskins falls to them

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Just because they low-ball you does not mean you have to accept. Like I said, it's to gauge interest.

If the Cardinals are advertising that Murray is their pick and they love Murray, than anyone who would be interested in Murray knows it will take a Kings Ransom. But if the Cardinals are not interested in Murray and no one knows that, they may throw out an offer and it benefits the Cardinals to take that deal. Similar to the Bears trading up for Trubisky, everyone was certain the Niners likely werent taking Trubisky but the Bears offered them a deal and they were able to move down 1 spot and still get who they were originally wanting.

Let's go back to the black friday example, if I am sitting at the front of the line telling everyone that the doorbuster Toshiba TV is a literal piece of garbage, when I start seeking offers I may not get a stacks of hundred dollar bills. But if everyone behind me has no idea what my thoughts are on said Toshiba TV, then I will get some decent offers because there are always a group of people who think Toshiba TV's are quality

You never tell a team who the other teams are nor how many teams want to trade up. You sure as hell tell them that your phone is ringing like crazy and several very good offers have come in, but you just think that you will draft him yourself. That way, teams have to outbid some unknown quantity of teams plus having to get to a certain level where you are willing to give up such a prized player.

You could have zero interest or calls for this player. They don't know.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Lets be real here. No NFL team gives a shit about taking Kyler Murray #1 overall other than the Cardinals. I don't even know if he would be drafted in the first round by anyone else to be honest. IMO Dwayne Haskins is the better pick of the two anyways. But I'm no QB whisperer so won't act like I know better than everyone. So to me "smokescreens" being thrown out that the Cardinals are taking Murray are worthless...because of the fact I can't see anyone else wanting to pay the price to take #1 overall and pick him.

 

[Bearly]

Maybe another team is willing to trade ahead of 2 and 3 for a Bosa or Williams. If AZ still thinks they can get Murray in the trade down, they get extra draft capital and still get their guy. All benefit. Why show your hand if you're considering trades? There's good reason that teams do it this way. I've seen much stranger trades so your view is a bit myopic in terms of possibilities. We don't even know if AZ would have been willing to pass on Murray given enough on trade, That team has a lot to fix.

If Murray was consensus #1 and AZ wasn't going to accept anything but him, then the secrecy was a waste but that wasn't the case. This wasn't a smokescreen. There was no disinformation. They simply played it close to the vest... as they should have if entertaining offers... as they did.

 

[xer0h0ur]

IMO the cards didn't play shit close to the vest though. Everyone knew they were taking Kyler, they took Kyler. If you're talking about playing it close to the vest then its Gruden's sending everyone home except for his puppet GM.

 

[Alterego]

I miss the days of Jake Long when he was signed to a deal before the draft.