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nice post joe
Got teeth? Keith doesn't.
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We're also 2nd in the majors in stealing, albeit at a subpar rate of 65%.
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we are aggresive that is for sure.
Got teeth? Keith doesn't.
JoeHawks is a fine gent
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Sure as hell is better than being in the bottom 5 in SB's with a subpar success rate.
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^^^^ thats for sure.
Lefty
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No, not really. With a low success rate, the more you try to steal, the more runs you cost yourself. A team with an inability to steal at a high rate (75% or higher for most cases), shouldn't be stealing a lot. Just because the Sox have a bunch of steals does not mean those CS's hurt less. In fact, they hurt more, because it means that the team had to sacrifice that many more runs just to get to their high SB total.
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i understand what you are saying, but im not crunching any numbers at the moment and since you are all numbers guy, isnt better to chance a pierre sb attempt and get caught at times and at times actually get the sb than to leave a man at first and hope to drive him in.....?
Lefty
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Yes, there are times when one-run strategies like stealing a base can be very beneficial to a team, and looking at the data yields certain "break even" points for stolen base success rate. At these points, even the CS's that come with any given SB% are acceptable because of the proportion of successes used to counter. That being said, the SOx are well below any acceptable threshold for stealing bases in almost any situation.
As of right now, this team has cost itself just over 8 marginal runs with how often they've been getting caught. So while they may be near tops in the league in SB's, they are actually second-to-last in the MLB in the runs they've gained from stealing so much.
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i take it you did the research? and put the numbers together? damn, thats interesting shit right there. hit and run failures taken into account as well?
Got teeth? Keith doesn't.
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I'm just saying, I'd rather us have a subpar success rate while stealing a lot of bases rather than not many. The difference in runs between two teams that steal bases at a 65% clip, one with say 120 steals, and the other with 60 steals, is pretty minimal I'm pretty sure.
Lefty
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Baseball Prospectus has up-to-date baserunning statistics, so if by "research" you mean "went to their site and looked it up" then yes, I did. And no, failed hit-and-run's are not taken into account simply because there is no way of knowing the difference between a failed hit-and-run and a regular old steal attempt.
That being said, if you take the CS's and SB's (if the team isn't going to be punished when a hit-and-run fails and the runner gets caught, they shouldn't be rewarded for having one fail but lucking out with a successful steal) for the guys that were more than likely going as part of a hit-and-run attempt more often than not (Quentin, Pierzynki, Konerko and Kotsay), the Sox are still looking at a 67% success rate, well below most established break even points. Any way you slice it, they are costing themselves runs. (this part I actually did do the math for)
Not at all. Take the Orioles, for example, they have a 67% success rate (compared with the Sox' 66%), but have only attempted to steal 75 times (Sox: 160). Because of those fewer steal attempts, they aren't costing themselves nearly as many runs (-3.44 runs, as opposed to the Sox' -8.14) by trying to steal at a lower success rate.
What's more, if you get into the allocation of scarce resources for an MLB team, spending--whether it be money or prospects--to add 30-40 steals when your success rate is likely to stay the same (like adding Juan Pierre) is foolish GMing.
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now it makes more sense! thx
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talk about killing an inning. rios and now pierre getting picked off.
