The Road to Victory: When the Cubs will be Competitive and/or Champions

[Jntg4]

I'm just trying to see where this organization is going, and to try to guess when we will be back to competition.

So, here is where we were at on 4/1/2010:
SP: Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Silva,
-DL: Lilly
C: Soto
1B: Lee
2B: Fontenot
SS: Theriot
3B: Ramirez
LF: Soriano
CF: Byrd
RF: Fukudome

Since then:
Zambrano moved to Bullpen, then back to Starter, then to Restricted List, then back to Bullpen.
Castro called up as SS, Theriot to 2B, Fontenot to Bench.
Cashner called up as Reliever.
Colvin Made Starting RF, Fukudome to Bench.
Lilly and Theriot traded for DeWitt (& Prospects), Diamond (to be) called up as an SP, DeWitt becomes 2B.

Now:
SP: Dempster, Wells, Silva, Gorzelanny, Diamond,
C: Soto
1B: Lee
2B: DeWitt
SS: Castro
3B: Ramirez
LF: Soriano
CF: Byrd
RF: Colvin

So, there were 4 new members of the Cubs starting staff. Let's take a look.

Diamond: He was the starter of the 2010 AAA All-Star Game, and will make his MLB Debut on Tuesday. Before he even throws a pitch, we know that this is a step towards the future, simply because of that. I don't know about you all, but someone starting the AAA All-Star Game sounds like a front-end to middle Staring Pitcher in the MLB.

(Cashner): Not a member of the starting staff, but he has been a big addition, despite his ERA being completely ruined in his last two outings. He projects to be a Starter, or a Closer, though the latter may be doubtful, as Marmol has that job locked up.

DeWitt: Basically, a younger, cheaper, slower Theriot with a better glove, and yet to peak. He projects to be the Cubs 2B until at least 2014, when hopefully, he will be in his prime.

Castro: What do I need to say? If the Cubs are EVER going to have a chance to win the World Series in the next 10-15 years (assuming he remains a Cub for a long time), Castro would have to play a big part of it. He's batting over .300 in his rookie campaign, and has 3 homers, though more will likely come with age, as he IS only 20, good range, though his defensive fundamentals have to be worked with, and super fast. He obviously projects to be a starting SS for an very long time.

Colvin: Who would have expected this, Tyler Colvin has 16 home runs, more than any other rookie, and his average is starting to rise again. The Cubs were looking for a left-handed power bat and went through several potential fits throughout the years, Fukudome who choked, Bradley who sucked and was hated by all, but they never found any good free agent fits, instead they got it from the farm system! he projects to be the Cubs starting RF (or and LF/CF) for an long time.

Looks like we are heading in the right direction IMO. So, when will these players (and others) be enough to lift the Cubs back to October?

Here is my prediction:
Over .500: 2011-2012
Playoffs: 2012-2013
World Championship: 2015-2016

How I see it, Ricketts won't spend too much NOW. But I think he will once we get back to competition.

What are your predictions?
(Over .500, Playoffs, World Championship)

 

[waldo7239117]

Like you said, Castro will be a better player as he gets older and the fundamentals will improve. I will add more to this post and will answer your question, when I get home from work.

 

[Jntg4]

BTW, my predictions were trying to be optimistic, but not too optimistic.

 

[EnjoyYourTiger]

i'd add a year or two onto each of your predictions.

or we could all agree on that the cubs will win a world championship when pigs fly.

 

[JB94]

Who's going to be 1B next year? Adam Dunn is the only decent player out there and he doesn't seem too interested in the Cubs. We don't really have a 1B prospect besides Russ Canzler, who isn't that great. Would it be worth resigning Lee for a year if we can't get Dunn and making a run at Fielder or Gonzalez during the 2011 offseason?

I'm not sure if I could see us over .500 next season with pretty much the same team and bad 1st baseman. (Although Lee hasn't been good this year).

 

[Jntg4]

Adam Dunn isn't the only decent player out there. There is also Carlos Pena.

 

[JB94]

Adam Dunn isn't the only decent player out there. There is also Carlos Pena.

Yeah, I must have skipped over him on the list. With him, it's pretty much home run or nothing. About every 1 out of 3 hits for him over the past three years has been a home run, lol. He is a gold glover though.

 

[herky]

I don't think they are that far away from competing for NL Central titles. Starting pitching is there, bullpen is getting much needed innings and experience. If the offense was ever consistent, added some speed and started producing runs rathar than waiting for the 3run heomer I think a couple solid moves in the off season could push this club up a bit. There is only going to be a couple spots in the everday lineup where we can get younger and better depending on what they decide to do with Colvin. For my money moving him to 1B would be better for the team because finding a corner OF or possibly a CF that can lead off would be easier and cheaper.

 

[JustinTCB]

There is only going to be a couple spots in the everday lineup where we can get younger and better depending on what they decide to do with Colvin. For my money moving him to 1B would be better for the team because finding a corner OF or possibly a CF that can lead off would be easier and cheaper.

If doesn't really get easier or cheaper than using a minor league guy from your system to play that RF spot.

Depending on Brett Jackson's development Colvin will probably end up at first, I still think he ends up as Rick Ankiel though (Colvin that is).

If Jackson is MLB ready next season (very unlikely until September) then Colvin plays first and he plays RF. If not, keep Colvin in right and go scrap heap hunting for a passable 1 year 1B.

 

[Jntg4]

I just can't believe we are this bad, when we have all these good players. Castro, Colvin, Cashner, now DeWitt, Lee, Ramirez, Byrd, Gorzelanny, Dempster, Wells, Marmol, etc.

That's why I think we aren't far off.

 

[waldo7239117]

It's just a down year for all Cubs and that's never good for a team.

Look for a rebound year next year but...that depends on the changes the FO makes.

There will be a new manager, the owner finally will have his feet under him as the owner, Lee may be gone, Lilly could be back but depends, RP is a mess, Guzman will be back if healthy, Colvin will be the starting RF next year, Castro will be up for whole year, Cashner may be a starter. And on and on.

 

[Jntg4]

And diamond. We have 3 Killer C's, and if Diamond does well, we could have two Killer D's, now we need a Killer E.

 

[JB94]

Our farm system has even turned it around lately. Colvin wasn't even in our top 10 prospects after last season and he has turned around, looking better each day. We only graduated two of our top 10 as of last year in Castro and Cashner. Players like Trey McNutt, Chris Archer, Junior Lake, Matt Szczur have shown positive results this year. We also have intriguing new comers next year in Reggie Golden, Hayden Simpson, and Kim Jin-Yeong.

We have produced a deep enough farm system that we could make a blockbuster deal if we wanted to. Unlike the middle to late 2000s, where we had terrible luck with prospects, we've been able to produce some players who have impacted the team as rookies. This team could become very interesting within a couple of years.

 

[Jntg4]

Juan Yasser Serrano too

 

[JB94]

Juan Yasser Serrano too

He hasn't been that great. His numbers aren't that eye opening for a 22 year old in A- Boise. He was ranked 50 on a recent prospect list I saw, but he's somebody to keep an eye on. I just listed the players from the top of my head who were within most peoples top 20 that weren't in BA's top 10 last year.

 

[Jntg4]

Dae-Eun Rhee, Robinson Chirinos, and Welington Castillo.

Chirinos and Castillo should be traded when we are ready to compete, they are blocked by Soto.

 

[JB94]

Dae-Eun Rhee, Robinson Chirinos, and Welington Castillo.

Chirinos and Castillo should be traded when we are ready to compete, they are blocked by Soto.

Or they can be a backup catcher instead of worthless Hill. Castillo isn't projected to be much more than an above average backup catcher. Chirinos is 26 in AA, but he has the offensive ability to start.

 

[waldo7239117]

Don't forget about Brett Jackson.

 

[DewsSox79]

cubs are not that far off.

 

[Jntg4]

Thanks dewssox