Week 1 Re-watch: Did GB win or did CHI Lose??

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

I broke the game down by quarters and tried to keep the "no duh" observations in regular type. The bold represents conclusions I made using coaches' film and all the bolded statements could also basically be collected together as a mini TL;DR for each quarter and analysis (analyses at half and at end of game).

FIRST QUARTER SUMMARY:

Nearly perfect start for the Bears. Rodgers converted on his first 3rd down pass in the first drive of the quarter, but that boils down to the only highlight all half for the GB offense. Mitch benefited from an excellent gameplan from Nagy. GB came out in single high safety coverage looks and "high" is being charitable as the safety was damn near close behind the LBs in the box. They got in even closer with successful runs by Howard and Cohen. Mitch hit Gabriel for 31 yards on that look in the first drive and ARob for 33 yards on that look in the 2nd drive. The 1st drive TD was set up beautifully as Nagy called a trips bunch with Leno (!) as one of the receivers out wide. He did this earlier in the drive as Mitch runs a read option from that formation either handing off to Howard (1st play) or keeping himself for a scramble (2nd play out of this SAME formation for the TD). On this play the left side buckles really fast (by design I imagine with Leno being out wide to the right of the line) but that's what makes the read so easy for Mitch so he can look at where it crumbles faster and decide who has the better angle for the yards, Howard or himself.

Defense played lights out outside of the one 3rd down pass for a 1st in the opening drive. On GB's second drive, they called a great play with deep routes run by 3 wideouts and kept 1 TE in doubling Mack that saw Montgomery torch Trevathan for a 48 yard gain. Hicks and Floyd however were rushing hard and the GB Center had to bear hug Hicks from behind for the holding call that killed the gain for GB. CHI pass rush was outstanding.

One bad note: Trubisky sailed an easy TD to ARob near the end of the 1st. A FG instead of a TD soured the end of the 1st (especially in light of the next 3 quarters).

SECOND QUARTER SUMMARY:

Parkey kicks the FG set up by the drive that was wrapping up in the redzone at the end of the 1st and that is all she wrote for the 2nd quarter scoring for the Bears offense (sad).

More dominating play from the defense. Sacking Rodgers, knocking him out of the game and making Kizer wish he were anywhere else when he comes in the game. We all know Mack's play in this quarter. There is no breakdown needed on those plays. Mack asserted his will on his blocker and then on Kizer. Pure and simple.

After ARob's 33 yard reception in the 2nd drive of the 1st quarter, GB went 2 high and actually backed the safeties further away from the box. The first drive of the 2nd quarter after the FG, Howard had what should have been a BIG run but then fell down to an arm tackle from a safety who came screaming up from deep to stop him. That 6 yard run should have been 16. Then on 3rd and one, Burton and Witzmann whiffed on blocks so Howard had no chance to gain the 1st. 3-and-out on 2Q's 1st drive with Nagy calling great plays to beat the GB defense but poor execution from Howard and his blockers respectively.

Next offensive drive, Howard rips a 9-yard gain on 1st down and Long blatantly holds negating it. It's 1st and 20 now and GB goes back to single high coverage. Dion Sims beats his guy to a wide open spot to the far right of the safety and alligator arms a good throw from Mitch.

Either GB no longer fears the Bears running game or they predict (quite correctly) that Nagy will abandon it to get more yards passing vs. the 2 high look. Nagy would only call one more run in this quarter (7 yard gain by Howard up the middle).

Mitch's deep shot in the middle of the field to Burton against that 2 high formation would have been picked off if Blake Martinez was even half aware of the play that was developing. And Burton acting like Martinez interfered when he was just "there" like a pylon in a route-running obstacle course was laughable.

FIRST HALF ANALYSIS:

The defense was awesome and Mack and Hicks were beast. The offense took advantage of a poor gameplan by GB to start the game: single high, crowd the box and (never mind the NBC intros) put more DBs than LBs to cover what they thought would be short-medium routes. Trubisky ate that defense alive in the 1st quarter with successful gap running by the RBs (underrated how well the running game did this first quarter due to GB guessing on defending short throws)followed by a successful "one-read-and-throw" deep passing attack that absolutely had GB defense on their heels all 1st quarter long.

The switch to 2 high and backing off after the FG was successful for GB but mostly due to poor execution by the running game in the 2nd quarter 1st drive and 2nd drive. The holes were there. Nagy's run calls were clearly beating the GB defense. Howard going down after 6 yards to a safety arm tackle in space. Poor blocking on 3rd and 1 and Long''s hold on the 9 yard run on the 2nd drive had Nagy saying "fuck it; I'm throwing" into the 2 high formation unsuccessfully with GB's medium and deep zones throttling the space for the receivers.

At halftime, Nagy had a 2nd quarter offense struggle to move the ball after dominating in the 1st quarter. He needed to either commit to the run and know his guys won't always hold, or fall down, and/or miss blocks back-to-back-to-back EVERY drive or dial up some passing plays he knows will hurt the GB 2 high zone they switched to after they got trashed in their 1 high man defense (preferably both).

At halftime, GB offense needed desperately to find a way to stop the Bears' pass rush. Their defense switched from 7-8 in the box single high man to 5-6 in the box 2 high zone and the defense settled down after a 1st quarter 10 point onslaught from the Bears (mostly with some help by incompetence spread out across the Bears offense).

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

THIRD QUARTER SUMMARY:

Bears get the ball on offense and Nagy comes out hitting quick throws and Howard runs (nice cut back and he broke arm tackles for a big gain too!). The 1st drive of the 3rd quarter was a success and it was obvious that Nagy communicated no turnovers on that short pass attempt on 3rd and 9 and played for the FG after a long sustained drive. With 9:14 to go and up 20 - 0, I remember the feeling: we got them!

It is NOT because Rodgers can't come back and throw 3-4 TDs, but more because if Nagy can call his offense and chew clock like that every time we have the ball, we can outlast even Rodgers. Look at how Nagy adjusts to GB defensive adjustments. That was well done.

On offense, GB changed up the blocking assignments and went no huddle. Mack was in the first few plays and they doubled Hicks and left Mack one-on-one while hitting slants if Mack was coming hard and fast in the area where Mack started from. (they did that on Floyd's side too). On the big passing play in the 3rd Q, Mack and Hicks were both doubled and Mack was tackled from behind in a blatant missed call. But that happens. The rest of the 3Q GB 1st drive, Lynch replaced Mack and Rodgers was more comfortable and still going no huddle. This is where Floyd stands out as not doing much on his side. Still with Mack on the sideline, the secondary covered in the redzone very well and Rodgers had tiny windows he really could not hit resulting in the FG and 20 -3.

3-and-out for CHI due to a new fake blitz scheme added to the 2 high formation. Showing aggressiveness pre-snap but staying home and flowing in the correct direction of the play by the LBs (especially Martinez) resulted in GB guessing correctly the direction of the play by simply seeing what side Cohen was lined up.

Rodgers' new no huddle and doubling either Hicks or Mack meant he could keep the pass rush on their heels and the double assignment has Rodgers pre-determining his pocket by stepping up when Hicks is doubled and moving left when Mack is single blocked (Floyd anyone?), moving right when Mack is doubled or swinging a throw around Mack or THROUGH Mack's original position. (Mack was also clearly winded due to no TC and preseason).

FOURTH QUARTER SUMMARY:

Let's talk the 39-yard TD to Allison. Fuller had tight coverage in case of a back shoulder and had make-up speed that Rodgers would have to throw perfectly to back corner of endzone if he wanted to complete to Allison at all (which he did). Fuller had no safety help because the 1 high safety moved to his right away from Fuller to cover Adams (?) the other WR up top who TOASTED Amukamara (?) and FORCED the single high safety to go away from Allison as Fuller had far tighter coverage on Allison than the other outside corner (who had ZERO coverage on the top GB WR).

Again, the running game started the 4th not too bad but inconsistently called and quickly abandoned. After a 5 yard gain and 4 yard gain by Howard, it's 3rd and 1 and Nagy calls a short passing play doomed to fail in the new GB shutdown of all things short passed. (Also Trubisky has audibled only once all game long and I wondered out olud if he even HAD an audible package available or he just thought he could "see" where the first down could be had? What is in his head is unknown.)

With Mack a fraction of himself and Hicks doubled or let go quickly for a swing pass or screen, Fangio has no answer for GB's new offensive strategy (all shotgun all no-huddle) and the defense really needs the offense to get OUT of their 3-and-out funk.

They do finally hit some short-medium gainers until it's 3rd and 2. And Mitch tries to hit Miller dragging across his defender but throws way too soon and unnecessarily so. The last FG is kicked and the defense will go on to give up the BIG 75 yarder to Cobb.

So now we are down 23-24. Now Nagy has no luxury of playing safe (every Bears fan already knew he never had that luxury). The 2-minute drive. Nice 1st down play. Great coverage by GB and Mitch has elite pocket awareness and escapability (yes that part of his game is elite) and hits Gabriel for a 1st down. Whitehair though.

For the rest of this abortion of a 2-minute drive, GB covers well and Mitch makes poor reads. When the GB defender has the deep position on ARob, Mitch tries to throw over-the-top instead of a back shoulder hit that would be there.

But Mitch had no guys open in that last drive. At all. For a system designed to get 3.6 yards of separation, the receivers had zero separation all across the field. Whether that is bad design by Nagy or bad route running on the WRs (both?) I cannot know and will not pretend to.

FINAL ANALYSIS:

This game is referred to by some here as "A Tale of Two Halves" with collective memories regarding the 17-0 halftime score as pure awesome by the Bears and the 24- 6 2nd half score as a letdown by the Bears. It is and isn't. It is more correct to say the offense had 1 great drive in teh 1st (TD) and 1 ok drive in the 1st (FG). Mitch missing a wide open Robinson on that drive for another TD was inexcusable. One decent drive in teh 3rd for a FG and one frustrating drive that stalled in the 4th for a FG (again on Mitch and his bad timing with Miller throwing too soon unnecessarily).

Mack was out more than in in the 2nd half and his absence was keenly felt. Even when Mack was in, Rodgers' no huddle and quick slants was gashing the Bears in the 2nd half and when out, Rodgers took deep shots that were open and hit them. Not bad defense on Allison (unless you want to fault Fangio for going 1 high instead of 2 high) but the TD happened anyway. On the 75 yarder, Eddie Jackson goes for the INT but a TD for Cobb instead. And yeah, Fuller's INT drop killed what could have been a W.

Looking back, Nagy deserved every drop of criticism for skipping preseason Week 3 especially with Mitch and his short timing and apparent lack of audible packages (Mitch either did not have audibles or GB showed a defense so well that convinced Mitch he need NOT audible but was constantly mistaken the entire game)

At the end of the game, everyone pointed here and there: if Fuller caught the INT, or if that last 3rd down and 2 was converted, or insert whatever key play in a one-point game.

But the bottom line was when Mitch was reading well and hitting open guys, the offense was fine and when Mack was flying around the field the defense was fine. GB flipped that script and neither Nagy nor Fangio could keep up with the adjustments. It is an odd feeling: You can easily feel we were the better team, but no one on offense or defense stepped up to do enough to win when they could have so it was not like GB did not step up and win either. They did. They won more drives vs. the Bears on offense and defense.

I hope with all my heart that the Bears REMEMBER this game on Sep. 5 2019. Never let this happen again. Go Bears!

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Nice effort post and I appreciate that, although I didn't read any of it. TLDR - GB won and the Bears lost.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Nice effort post and I appreciate that, although I didn't read any of it. TLDR - GB won and the Bears lost.

I am not surprised. You never wanted to re-live that one, but thanks for the pat on the back anyway.

 

[Calabis]

Simple...Bears defense ran out of gas and were out of shape. Offense didnt fo them any favors

 

[Mdbearz]

Great break down, OJC... we tend to remember the big plays that could have won the game, but forget the flow of the game. Momentum was huge in this game, and we just did not have enough experience to make the adjustments.....

I agree, I hope we go out and are prepared to take it to GB for 4 quarters with more experience at both the coaching staff and the players.

My BLUF (bottom line up front) - Nagy got out coached, but he learned a lot from that game.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Great break down, OJC... we tend to remember the big plays that could have won the game, but forget the flow of the game. Momentum was huge in this game, and we just did not have enough experience to make the adjustments.....

I agree, I hope we go out and are prepared to take it to GB for 4 quarters with more experience at both the coaching staff and the players.

My BLUF (bottom line up front) - Nagy got out coached, but he learned a lot from that game.

He did get out-coached overall. For all the "If Fuller catches that INT" talk, then the hypothetical win would still come down to what the Bears would have "gotten away with" from an overall perspective.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Simple...Bears defense ran out of gas and were out of shape. Offense didnt fo them any favors

Outside of Mack, I did not see that to be true. Bad angles on passes and a steady GB no-huddle that was absolutely effective at negating the Bears pass rush up front

 

[PrideisBears]

Offense did the defense no favors but the fact the bears defense couldnt get to a crippled Rodgers irks me. Thankfully we won the 2nd game

 

[CNiel36]

Winning teams learn to step on teams throats when they are down and not let them off the mat. This Bears team did not have the killer instinct. And I would say they stick lacked that when they lost to the Eagles in the WC round. One of the biggest things I want to see from Trubs in year #3 is become a vocal leader and taking charge of the O. A QB with control of the huddle could have calmed that O and at least killed the clock or pumched one last TD in.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Winning teams learn to step on teams throats when they are down and not let them off the mat. This Bears team did not have the killer instinct. And I would say they stick lacked that when they lost to the Eagles in the WC round. One of the biggest things I want to see from Trubs in year #3 is become a vocal leader and taking charge of the O. A QB with control of the huddle could have calmed that O and at least killed the clock or pumched one last TD in.

A QB with control of the huddle could have calmed that O and at least killed the clock or pumched one last TD in.

You aren't wrong, but Mitch seemed to have no audible package or at least saw no need for audibles during the drives to kill clock.

On that last 2-minute drive to go down and get a FG attempt for the win, he had no receivers open at all. He had nowhere to throw play after play after play. Again, whether that is on Nagy's playcalls vs. GB defense or on the WRS not getting open (or a bit of both), I don't know, but on the last drive, Mitch had nothing to work with. Maybe he could have thrown a guy open here or there, I don't even know that

... but that last drive was bad. It looked like GB effortlessly shut down the offense to seal the win and had every confidence that they would.

 

[DC]

I remember being pissed at Fangio this game. I mean, there was so much pressure on Mitch and Nagy for their first game, in goddamn Green Bay of all places. Why couldn't Fangio get to #12? He was literally limping.

 

[Adipost]

At second glance, Trubisky played much worse than I remembered. So much so that it’s probably unfair to put any blame on anyone else for this loss.

 

[EVERYBODY]

I broke the game down by quarters and tried to keep the "no duh" observations in regular type. The bold represents conclusions I made using coaches' film and all the bolded statements could also basically be collected together as a mini TL;DR for each quarter and analysis (analyses at half and at end of game).

FIRST QUARTER SUMMARY:

Nearly perfect start for the Bears. Rodgers converted on his first 3rd down pass in the first drive of the quarter, but that boils down to the only highlight all half for the GB offense. Mitch benefited from an excellent gameplan from Nagy. GB came out in single high safety coverage looks and "high" is being charitable as the safety was damn near close behind the LBs in the box. They got in even closer with successful runs by Howard and Cohen. Mitch hit Gabriel for 31 yards on that look in the first drive and ARob for 33 yards on that look in the 2nd drive. The 1st drive TD was set up beautifully as Nagy called a trips bunch with Leno (!) as one of the receivers out wide. He did this earlier in the drive as Mitch runs a read option from that formation either handing off to Howard (1st play) or keeping himself for a scramble (2nd play out of this SAME formation for the TD). On this play the left side buckles really fast (by design I imagine with Leno being out wide to the right of the line) but that's what makes the read so easy for Mitch so he can look at where it crumbles faster and decide who has the better angle for the yards, Howard or himself.

Defense played lights out outside of the one 3rd down pass for a 1st in the opening drive. On GB's second drive, they called a great play with deep routes run by 3 wideouts and kept 1 TE in doubling Mack that saw Montgomery torch Trevathan for a 48 yard gain. Hicks and Floyd however were rushing hard and the GB Center had to bear hug Hicks from behind for the holding call that killed the gain for GB. CHI pass rush was outstanding.

One bad note: Trubisky sailed an easy TD to ARob near the end of the 1st. A FG instead of a TD soured the end of the 1st (especially in light of the next 3 quarters).

SECOND QUARTER SUMMARY:

Parkey kicks the FG set up by the drive that was wrapping up in the redzone at the end of the 1st and that is all she wrote for the 2nd quarter scoring for the Bears offense (sad).

More dominating play from the defense. Sacking Rodgers, knocking him out of the game and making Kizer wish he were anywhere else when he comes in the game. We all know Mack's play in this quarter. There is no breakdown needed on those plays. Mack asserted his will on his blocker and then on Kizer. Pure and simple.

After ARob's 33 yard reception in the 2nd drive of the 1st quarter, GB went 2 high and actually backed the safeties further away from the box. The first drive of the 2nd quarter after the FG, Howard had what should have been a BIG run but then fell down to an arm tackle from a safety who came screaming up from deep to stop him. That 6 yard run should have been 16. Then on 3rd and one, Burton and Witzmann whiffed on blocks so Howard had no chance to gain the 1st. 3-and-out on 2Q's 1st drive with Nagy calling great plays to beat the GB defense but poor execution from Howard and his blockers respectively.

Next offensive drive, Howard rips a 9-yard gain on 1st down and Long blatantly holds negating it. It's 1st and 20 now and GB goes back to single high coverage. Dion Sims beats his guy to a wide open spot to the far right of the safety and alligator arms a good throw from Mitch.

Either GB no longer fears the Bears running game or they predict (quite correctly) that Nagy will abandon it to get more yards passing vs. the 2 high look. Nagy would only call one more run in this quarter (7 yard gain by Howard up the middle).

Mitch's deep shot in the middle of the field to Burton against that 2 high formation would have been picked off if Blake Martinez was even half aware of the play that was developing. And Burton acting like Martinez interfered when he was just "there" like a pylon in a route-running obstacle course was laughable.

FIRST HALF ANALYSIS:

The defense was awesome and Mack and Hicks were beast. The offense took advantage of a poor gameplan by GB to start the game: single high, crowd the box and (never mind the NBC intros) put more DBs than LBs to cover what they thought would be short-medium routes. Trubisky ate that defense alive in the 1st quarter with successful gap running by the RBs (underrated how well the running game did this first quarter due to GB guessing on defending short throws)followed by a successful "one-read-and-throw" deep passing attack that absolutely had GB defense on their heels all 1st quarter long.

The switch to 2 high and backing off after the FG was successful for GB but mostly due to poor execution by the running game in the 2nd quarter 1st drive and 2nd drive. The holes were there. Nagy's run calls were clearly beating the GB defense. Howard going down after 6 yards to a safety arm tackle in space. Poor blocking on 3rd and 1 and Long''s hold on the 9 yard run on the 2nd drive had Nagy saying "fuck it; I'm throwing" into the 2 high formation unsuccessfully with GB's medium and deep zones throttling the space for the receivers.

At halftime, Nagy had a 2nd quarter offense struggle to move the ball after dominating in the 1st quarter. He needed to either commit to the run and know his guys won't always hold, or fall down, and/or miss blocks back-to-back-to-back EVERY drive or dial up some passing plays he knows will hurt the GB 2 high zone they switched to after they got trashed in their 1 high man defense (preferably both).

At halftime, GB offense needed desperately to find a way to stop the Bears' pass rush. Their defense switched from 7-8 in the box single high man to 5-6 in the box 2 high zone and the defense settled down after a 1st quarter 10 point onslaught from the Bears (mostly with some help by incompetence spread out across the Bears offense).

Thank You

 

[EVERYBODY]

Winning teams learn to step on teams throats when they are down and not let them off the mat. This Bears team did not have the killer instinct. And I would say they stick lacked that when they lost to the Eagles in the WC round. One of the biggest things I want to see from Trubs in year #3 is become a vocal leader and taking charge of the O. A QB with control of the huddle could have calmed that O and at least killed the clock or pumched one last TD in.

This Team has still not had that "defining" moment like that Franco Harris immaculate reception. When it happens we will know that the BEARs are truly destiny's child. Otherwise we might be perpetual playoff contenders/pretenders.

I "feel" we will become Destiny's Child but will it be this year ? Maybe. Can't wait for the season to start at Soldier

 

[Bearly]

Winning teams learn to step on teams throats when they are down and not let them off the mat. This Bears team did not have the killer instinct. And I would say they stick lacked that when they lost to the Eagles in the WC round. One of the biggest things I want to see from Trubs in year #3 is become a vocal leader and taking charge of the O. A QB with control of the huddle could have calmed that O and at least killed the clock or pumched one last TD in.

He really didn't have that early last season and looked to be in over his head. That seemed to change 5th game in or so. The review of the GB game was fine but even without rewatching it, I can tell you that Mitch was not elite as a scrambler that game with moving off his mark too quickly at times and generally having happy feet. That got so much better later in the year.

 

[Leomaz]

Chicago lost it.

 

[PrideisBears]

At second glance, Trubisky played much worse than I remembered. So much so that it’s probably unfair to put any blame on anyone else for this loss.

Oh Mitch was terrible. He was bad for the first three weeks of the season

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

I remember being pissed at Fangio this game. I mean, there was so much pressure on Mitch and Nagy for their first game, in goddamn Green Bay of all places. Why couldn't Fangio get to #12? He was literally limping.

Why couldn't Fangio get to #12? He was literally limping.

Kind of answered in my post. No huddle shotgun all second half and throwing into the rush that was being sent. When Fangio backed off, Rodgers simply had more time to make pinpoint throws. Mack being tired and in-and-out meant that (for Week 1 anyway), the defense needed help from the offense in the second half and Pettine absolutely out-coached Nagy in the second half, shutting him down with Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverage schemes that smothered the receivers. There were holes in those schemes but hardly any receiver got there.

I suspect Nagy coached Mitch to hit safe short throws that guaranteed no turnovers to help the GB comeback, but (Catch-22) also gave up critical 3-and-outs when the defense was being mauled.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

At second glance, Trubisky played much worse than I remembered. So much so that it’s probably unfair to put any blame on anyone else for this loss.

He played terrible, but I have no problem putting blame also on Nagy and Fangio for completely failing to adjust at all.