Why Trubisky Won't Put Up Big Numbers This Season

[xer0h0ur]

I think 30 tds and 4K is a pretty good year.

Especially since that would likely be accompanied by a whole mess of yardage on the ground as well. I would say that isn't a bad season at all.

 

[bearmick]

This is definitely one of the more creative preemptive QB excuses I've heard. If he doesn't put up big numbers it's because they weren't trying to. If he does, he must just be extra good. I like it.

With a couple of notable, whiny exceptions, Trubisky fanboys are definitely better than Cutler fanboys were. They just had the same shit every year.

Kudos to the OP.

 

[r1terrell23]

Agreed. Nagy is going to want to continue to make a name for himself in this league, and he's going to do that by putting up a lot of points. I don't think he has much to do with the defense, so his baby is going to be the offense, and he wants to make a statement.

Great teams always put up offense. Remember that Packers and Patriots run? They didn't let up at all. In the NFL you don't stop until you are up 42 or it's late in the game.

 

[Visionman]

Especially since that would likely be accompanied by a whole mess of yardage on the ground as well. I would say that isn't a bad season at all.

But is that worth a 25m (or more) per season contract? Is that production good enough to win with, considering the players you are likely to lose to pay that QB?

 

[xer0h0ur]

But is that worth a 25m (or more) per season contract? Is that production good enough to win with, considering the players you are likely to lose to pay that QB?

As has been said multiple times before, I don't even give a shit about the stats. I only care that he improves from last season and transitions more into commanding the game than being protected as Nagy himself put it. Namely I want him to be more of the reason why we are winning games.

1. More progress
2. Less hand holding his play, cut him loose and if he fucks up he fucks up - sink or swim
3. Being a larger factor in winning games

If he satisfies those conditions I have no qualms about making him our guy for the foreseeable future.

 

[Visionman]

As has been said multiple times before, I don't even give a shit about the stats. I only care that he improves from last season and transitions more into commanding the game than being protected as Nagy himself put it. Namely I want him to be more of the reason why we are winning games.

1. More progress
2. Less hand holding his play, cut him loose and if he fucks up he fucks up - sink or swim
3. Being a larger factor in winning games

If he satisfies those conditions I have no qualms about making him our guy for the foreseeable future.

In order for that type of contract to be worth it, he would have to be THE factor in us winning games.

 

[Chicago Staleys]

Last year proved that the defense can only get you so far. However, his number were good in the Eagles game but the play calling and a kicker fucked that up.

 

[jive]

Don't care about the numbers. Wanna see him not badly miss wide open receivers. Continue the great 3rd down %. Get more comfortable leading receivers. And process the defense better.

That's what it's really about, missing open receivers and making poor reads. Even if he improves statistically, but still has those problems, we won't improve.

 

[jive]

This is definitely one of the more creative preemptive QB excuses I've heard. If he doesn't put up big numbers it's because they weren't trying to. If he does, he must just be extra good. I like it.

With a couple of notable, whiny exceptions, Trubisky fanboys are definitely better than Cutler fanboys were. They just had the same shit every year.

Kudos to the OP.

It's not so much an apology for Trubisky, but a discussion of game flow. If a team is up, and the defense is dominating they won't pass as much. If a team has a defense that gives up points and they have to play from behind, they will pass more. There's lots of QBs with better stats because they face more prevent Ds and garbage time. But those guys also have losing records. If the game is close or the team is playing from behind, then they will pass more.

Even if Trubisky improves, I probably wouldn't pick him high for fantasy football because of game flow. If the defense dominates, and Trubisky cuts down his mistakes, he won't be passing much in the 4th quarter. Better to go for a guy with a good offense and terrible defense like Mahomes (DEF #24), Ryan (DEF #25), or Goff (DEF #20). But the NFL isn't fantasy football, so defense matters and has an effect on game flow.

 

[Bearly]

It's a good point but one some on here just won't be able to understand. Now there are some offenses/Coaches who just love to put up huge points on offense no matter how many points the other team has on the board but it didn't seem like Nagy was that kind of coach which is kinda surprising coming from the A.Reid tree cause he loves putting up points.

This would not even be a good joke.

 

[Mydiktaisbiggerthanyours]

The reason why Trubisky won't put up big numbers this season: He doesn't have to.

Our defense is really good, and that's the reason why Trubisky won't have to put up big numbers to win games. If our running game improves as well, even more so.
Not to take anything away from Mahomes, but one of the reasons why he put up big numbers is because he had to. The defense in KC was bad, and they had to score alot of points to win. If you take a look at QBs purely from stats, you'll see many top performers come from either losing teams or teams with bad defenses. Garbage time, playing against a prevent defense, and calling more passing plays due to game flow, all pad stats.

If you have a strong lead, and your defense is playing well, then all the offense has to do is kill time and give the defense a rest from there. No need for long bombs, high risk passes, or no huddle offenses. I would be concerned if we're making 40+ passing attempts a game consistently, because it's usually an indicator that were playing from behind. A dominant win is where you get your 3-4 TDs, punish the opponent to the point they become one dimensional, and then tee off on the QB if they try for a big play. Maybe give them a little underneath stuff to kill time and give false hope, and then run the ball down their throats until you take 3 victory formation plays.

If Mitch can eliminate his mistakes like poor reads and over throwing receivers, while continuing what he does well, we'll be just fine. If the running game improves, even better. Mitch doesn't need to lead the league in passing or TDs. It probably won't happen anyway because our defense is so good and may even be better this coming season.

Our schedule is much, much harder this year. I think our games our going to be closer this year with less wins too. But he will grow. Offense will be better while possible the defense could slide down a bit. But I think the harder schedule could make him have to learn how to take games over. Winter is coming and it’s going to be fun. Can’t wait. But I do have new news.... the Detroit Lions have been eliminated from next year playoffs...

 

[TheWinman]

A good qb is going to put up "numbers" regardless of his team.

He may not have to be Dan Fouts but he will still put up numbers.

Thats what he said

 

[Toast88]

Even if he “doesn’t have to,” he still will.

Nagy isn’t going to suddenly turn into a guy who doesn’t want to call pass plays if the Bears are up. The Bears won’t be a big running team as long as Nagy is the coach.

Plus, it’s cyclical. If you have a good defense, your offense is more comfortable. If your offense is more comfortable, they’ll probably play more efficiently. If they play more efficiently, the numbers will come.

 

[number51]

If he expects to get that fat QB cash Maserati Mitch better step up and be the reason the Bears win some games. A QB that can't take over and win a game is just another guy.

 

[jive]

I'll agree that Nagy would still want to score points when they are up. But, it won't necessarily be from passing.
Here's the number of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the games the Bears won:
SEA: 4
ARZ: 5
TB: 3
NYJ: 5
BUF: 4
DET: 4
MIN: 10
DET: 6
LAR: 0
GB: 6
SF: 10
MIN: 8

Number of 4th quarter pass plays in games lost:
GB: 14
MIA: 13
NE: 16
NYG: 23

In the games we won, we threw 10 or less times in the 4th quarter. In the games we dominated, it was less than 5. In the games we lost, we threw for 13 or more times. It's basic Football 101. It doesn't matter how aggressive of a play caller you are, the more of a lead that you have, the more conservative your play calling will be. Quite honestly, if the Bears lead the league in pass attempts next year, it means we have other problems.

 

[number51]

I'll agree that Nagy would still want to score points when they are up. But, it won't necessarily be from passing.
Here's the number of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the games the Bears won:
SEA: 4
ARZ: 5
TB: 3
NYJ: 5
BUF: 4
DET: 4
MIN: 10
DET: 6
LAR: 0
GB: 6
SF: 10
MIN: 8

Number of 4th quarter pass plays in games lost:
GB: 14
MIA: 13
NE: 16
NYG: 23

In the games we won, we threw 10 or less times in the 4th quarter. In the games we dominated, it was less than 5. In the games we lost, we threw for 13 or more times. It's basic Football 101. It doesn't matter how aggressive of a play caller you are, the more of a lead that you have, the more conservative your play calling will be. Quite honestly, if the Bears lead the league in pass attempts next year, it means we have other problems.

Solid post, thanks. My opinion, If in his 3rd year, 2nd in Nagy's system, If Mitch can't take over a game and win it, he's Grossman. Just another guy, no big payday.

Next up, before this great defense gets old. I'm so sick of watching this cycle of great D's rotting on the vine while we wait for a QB, and then repeat. This franchise, I kid you not.

 

[Visionman]

I'll agree that Nagy would still want to score points when they are up. But, it won't necessarily be from passing.
Here's the number of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the games the Bears won:
SEA: 4
ARZ: 5
TB: 3
NYJ: 5
BUF: 4
DET: 4
MIN: 10
DET: 6
LAR: 0
GB: 6
SF: 10
MIN: 8

Number of 4th quarter pass plays in games lost:
GB: 14
MIA: 13
NE: 16
NYG: 23

In the games we won, we threw 10 or less times in the 4th quarter. In the games we dominated, it was less than 5. In the games we lost, we threw for 13 or more times. It's basic Football 101. It doesn't matter how aggressive of a play caller you are, the more of a lead that you have, the more conservative your play calling will be. Quite honestly, if the Bears lead the league in pass attempts next year, it means we have other problems.

And it's not just pass vs. run plays either. It's the type of pass plays called. In most cases, much more conservative with a lead, which had a tendency to hurt the flow of the offense overall.

There werent many games where he kept the pedal down like he did against Arizona. That was the anomaly...

 

[legendxofxlink]

I'll agree that Nagy would still want to score points when they are up. But, it won't necessarily be from passing.
Here's the number of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the games the Bears won:
SEA: 4
ARZ: 5
TB: 3
NYJ: 5
BUF: 4
DET: 4
MIN: 10
DET: 6
LAR: 0
GB: 6
SF: 10
MIN: 8

Number of 4th quarter pass plays in games lost:
GB: 14
MIA: 13
NE: 16
NYG: 23

In the games we won, we threw 10 or less times in the 4th quarter. In the games we dominated, it was less than 5. In the games we lost, we threw for 13 or more times. It's basic Football 101. It doesn't matter how aggressive of a play caller you are, the more of a lead that you have, the more conservative your play calling will be. Quite honestly, if the Bears lead the league in pass attempts next year, it means we have other problems.

Good post, but Nagy has some growing to do too. Too many times he was trying to hold on to the win, trying to milk the clock and the run game got stuffed giving the other team chance after chance. It's too predictable.

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

If he expects to get that fat QB cash Maserati Mitch better step up and be the reason the Bears win some games. A QB that can't take over and win a game is just another guy.

Maserati being a much more preferable outcome than Mole Eye!

@Warden of the Northeast

 

[xer0h0ur]

Good post, but Nagy has some growing to do too. Too many times he was trying to hold on to the win, trying to milk the clock and the run game got stuffed giving the other team chance after chance. It's too predictable.

Nagy has to trust Mitch and the offense as a whole more instead of trying to protect them. I believe its safe to say we are all expecting them to push the envelope more than last season.