What is the minimum you would accept for Howard?

What is the minimum pick you would accept for Howard?

  • 2nd

    Votes: 8 8.2%

  • 3rd

    Votes: 32 33.0%

  • 4th

    Votes: 34 35.1%

  • 5th

    Votes: 19 19.6%

  • 6th

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • 7th

    Votes: 3 3.1%
  • Total voters
    97

bearsfaninfl

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The only way trading Howard makes any sense is if:

1) We plan on signing someone to take that spot. This would obviously affect cap space, so it better be a significant improvement.

or

2) We plan on drafting a replacement, and are positive that we can do so with whatever round pick we get in the trade.

Very unlikely we would get an improvement at the same $800k that Howard costs next year, so it would probably have to be a pretty big jump. Even a guy like Hunt, you are going to be without for a significant portion of the season.

We don't have the cap space to replace a guy that is solid, and that cheap unless it's via the draft.

The problem on the draft side is that we have plenty of other holes to fill, it seems silly to create another one on a roll of the dice that you will get better at the position.

Best solution in my opinion, is an in season trade. There are teams every year that need help mid season for that last push towards the playoffs. This would allow either a rookie to get up to speed, or Hunt to become available, at which point you can then start fielding the calls. Since Howard is super cheap, his contract won't be a problem at all for mid season trade, which makes him super attractive if the team is short on cap space.

Only other thing I would consider is a player for player trade at a position we need to fill. That way we just shift the spot of need without creating an additional hole.
 
TexasBearfan

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WindyCity said:
What is the minimum draft pick you would accept for Howard to trade him in the offseason?
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I've contacted like 7 teams telling them i'd take a 3rd for him, 6 of them said who TF are you and one had me arrested
 
Broc

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WindyCity said:
I think we are investing at RB anyway
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Agreed, but hopefully that investment is to replace Cunningham and Mizzell on the depth chart this first. I think 2020 is where you look to use one of those 2nd rounders on replacing Howard.

WindyCity said:
it is clear that Howard does not have the big play ability that Nagy wants.
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True, but he's still of value to the team.

WindyCity said:
If we are investing, I think we need to explore recouping picks.
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Sure, it would be nice to recoup some draft capital before he walks for free but I don't think the situation is so dire that they need to jump on some low-ball offer just so they can recoup some additional 7th rounder that is unlikely to make the roster. Now if someone offers up a 2nd or two 3rds or something, then that's a different story.
 
bamainatlanta

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A 4th rounder. His lack of burst hinders the offense.
 
bamainatlanta

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msadows

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Broc said:
Agreed, but hopefully that investment is to replace Cunningham and Mizzell on the depth chart this first. I think 2020 is where you look to use one of those 2nd rounders on replacing Howard.



True, but he's still of value to the team.



Sure, it would be nice to recoup some draft capital before he walks for free but I don't think the situation is so dire that they need to jump on some low-ball offer just so they can recoup some additional 7th rounder that is unlikely to make the roster. Now if someone offers up a 2nd or two 3rds or something, then that's a different story.
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Does he, though? He isn't even a top 15 runningback in the league in this system. That puts him below average. I don't really think that brings much value to the team. Hes got zero burst and acceleration, has been very indecisive to the hole, has to slow down completely to make a cut, cant run any routes besides a basic swing pass/screen. Not to mention he's been going down a LOT this year from arm tackles and losing his balance, which didn't happen as much the last few years. Howard never had big play ability, and always lacked deep speed, but now he can't even regularly get those 3-4 yards he was known for.

I'd much rather move on now and try to get a 4th or 5th for him, than keep hoping that he somehow becomes a good player in this system. Being 14th in yards on the 6th most carries in the league is something most runningbacks in this league are capable of, so nothing Howard did is special, thus is really has no value.
 
dennehy

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msadows said:
Does he, though? He isn't even a top 15 runningback in the league in this system. That puts him below average. I don't really think that brings much value to the team. Hes got zero burst and acceleration, has been very indecisive to the hole, has to slow down completely to make a cut, cant run any routes besides a basic swing pass/screen. Not to mention he's been going down a LOT this year from arm tackles and losing his balance, which didn't happen as much the last few years. Howard never had big play ability, and always lacked deep speed, but now he can't even regularly get those 3-4 yards he was known for.

I'd much rather move on now and try to get a 4th or 5th for him, than keep hoping that he somehow becomes a good player in this system. Being 14th in yards on the 6th most carries in the league is something most runningbacks in this league are capable of, so nothing Howard did is special, thus is really has no value.
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Here's my question: why would teams give up a 4th or 5th round pick for a player who has zero burst and acceleration, can't run routes or make good cuts, and goes down easily, plus is on the last year of his rookie deal and plays perhaps the most replaceable (via draft) position in the game? Why not a draft a player of your choice in the 4th or 5th and have him cost controlled for 4 years?

There really are only a handful of teams that will be in the market for an RB via free agency and I'm not that more than one or two will run outside zone primarily. San Francisco would be the best first, and maybe Houston or Tampa. No one looking for that RB to put them over the top. But I just don't see many teams in the market for Howard.
 
msadows

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dennehy said:
Here's my question: why would teams give up a 4th or 5th round pick for a player who has zero burst and acceleration, can't run routes or make good cuts, and goes down easily, plus is on the last year of his rookie deal and plays perhaps the most replaceable (via draft) position in the game? Why not a draft a player of your choice in the 4th or 5th and have him cost controlled for 4 years?

There really are only a handful of teams that will be in the market for an RB via free agency and I'm not that more than one or two will run outside zone primarily. San Francisco would be the best first, and maybe Houston or Tampa. No one looking for that RB to put them over the top. But I just don't see many teams in the market for Howard.
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Sure thing versus an unknown. Look at Langford, that dude didn’t work out for anyone. He was a 4th round pick that’s a practice squad level player. No guarantees in the draft.

The need around the league isn’t high, but I’m sure there will be someone wanting jhow. He has talent, he just needs to be put in a situation to succeed, that won’t be here ever evidently.
 
dennehy

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msadows said:
Sure thing versus an unknown. Look at Langford, that dude didn’t work out for anyone. He was a 4th round pick that’s a practice squad level player. No guarantees in the draft.

The need around the league isn’t high, but I’m sure there will be someone wanting jhow. He has talent, he just needs to be put in a situation to succeed, that won’t be here ever evidently.
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Unless you are an outside zone heavy team I'd say there aren't any guarantees with Howard either. Plus you've got Leveon Bell and Mark Ingram who are FAs plus at least a few high level RB prospects that will be valued more than Howard. Just don't see anything more than a 5th, tops.
 
msadows

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dennehy said:
Unless you are an outside zone heavy team I'd say there aren't any guarantees with Howard either. Plus you've got Leveon Bell and Mark Ingram who are FAs plus at least a few high level RB prospects that will be valued more than Howard. Just don't see anything more than a 5th, tops.
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Howard still has a year on his rookie contract, not a lot of teams are willing to pay bell/ingram. I personally think he can get a 4th, but I wouldn't doubt a 5ths all he's gonna go for.
 
Rory Sparrow

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msadows said:
Carlos Hyde was traded for a 5th round pick.

So you are telling me Carlos Hyde has the same worth as Jordan Howard.
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I know how your typical post has no actual research or thought put into them, but this comment is still funny. Hyde's 2017 season is almost a mirror image of Howard's 2018 season. Hyde's is slightly better, but still.
 
msadows

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Rory Sparrow said:
I know how your typical post has no actual research or thought put into them, but this comment is still funny. Hyde's 2017 season is almost a mirror image of Howard's 2018 season. Hyde's is slightly better, but still.
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Funny, because you just assume shit. Howard had 2 seasons that proved he was once a top 10 back in this league.

Hyde never had one. Hyde wasn't on his rookie deal, Howard is.

Howard was bad this year, Hyde's been bad pretty much his entire career.

Yes we are selling low but better not to sell at all.

Go fuck off.
 
Sculpt

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The team will have to go with the flow on this issue, see what opportunities do or don't materialize...

1. Offer up Howard to teams, expect a 5th.

2. See when Hunt is available

3. See what FA like Hunt are available (we can't afford much)

4. Plan on drafting a Hunt type RB

If we trade Howard and draft a Hunt-type, we're in good shape, even if we pick up Hunt. Nothing wrong having a rookie Hunt-type and Hunt, not only because of his suspension, more off-the-field could happen, injury backup, Returns and ST coverage, semi-change of pace rushing. Drop Mizzel or Cunningham, 4 RBs.
 
Broc

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msadows said:
Does he, though? He isn't even a top 15 runningback in the league in this system. That puts him below average. I don't really think that brings much value to the team.
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When I say he has value to the team it's mainly in regards to the role he fills on the roster. Neither Cohen, Cunningham, or Mizzell are capable feature backs who can carry the load if need be in games where we have to lean on the running game whether that's due to weather conditions late in the season or defensive schemes. People are undervaluing what Howard brings to the table in my opinion. Just because he didn't constantly break off dazzling big plays this past season doesn't mean he has no value to the team. He's still a solid contributor that fills a valuable role at a bargain price. Plus, it's much easier to find Cohen type scat backs late in the draft then it is to find 6'0+ feature back types like Howard.

So like I said, unless someone made me an offer I couldn't refuse I'd hold onto Howard for one more year, then draft his replacement with one of the 2nd rounders next year.
 
Sculpt

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Broc said:
When I say he has value to the team it's mainly in regards to the role he fills on the roster. Neither Cohen, Cunningham, or Mizzell are capable feature backs who can carry the load if need be in games where we have to lean on the running game whether that's due to weather conditions late in the season or defensive schemes. People are undervaluing what Howard brings to the table in my opinion. Just because he didn't constantly break off dazzling big plays this past season doesn't mean he has no value to the team. He's still a solid contributor that fills a valuable role at a bargain price. Plus, it's much easier to find Cohen type scat backs late in the draft then it is to find 6'0+ feature back types like Howard.

So like I said, unless someone made me an offer I couldn't refuse I'd hold onto Howard for one more year, then draft his replacement with one of the 2nd rounders next year.
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No doubt you wouldn't trade Howard without replacing him -- a Hunt type is 5'10" 216lbs who could run between the tackles.

I'd like to keep Howard for $750k in 2019 for short-yardage and change of pace, even if we draft a decent sized back with burst... but not only would that be professionally discourteous to Howard, considering our lack of draft picks, might as well straight-up replace Howard with a trade draft pick. Pace has done well with 5ths.
 
WindyCity

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The 3rd and 4th round are essentially 50/50 on landing a starting calibre player depending on the position to a degree.

I am going to crunch some numbers on the 5th round and see what percentage, but it would be less than 50% based on first glance. Obviously, Pace has done really well in that round, but I may amend my position to a 4th round pick.
 
msadows

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Sculpt said:
No doubt you wouldn't trade Howard without replacing him -- a Hunt type is 5'10" 216lbs who could run between the tackles.

I'd like to keep Howard for $750k in 2019 for short-yardage and change of pace, even if we draft a decent sized back with burst... but not only would that be professionally discourteous to Howard, considering our lack of draft picks, might as well straight-up replace Howard with a trade draft pick. Pace has done well with 5ths.
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Thats what I'm getting at.

Obviously I don't want to deal howard and rely on mizzell and cohen. Trading howard is only an option if we replace him with either a rookie we think can be all purpose for us or a FA like spencer ware/Hunt.

Broc thinks I'm undervaluing Howard, I'm not. The guy is a good back in the right situation, but this isn't the right one. If he replicates the current season next year he will end up hamstringing our offense. The run game NEEDS to take a big step forward if we want to be a better offense next year, I just don't see howard being part of that solution.
 
Broc

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msadows said:
Broc thinks I'm undervaluing Howard, I'm not.
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:thinking:

msadows said:
He isn't even a top 15 runningback in the league in this system. That puts him below average. I don't really think that brings much value to the team.
Click to expand...

msadows said:
Hes got zero burst and acceleration, has been very indecisive to the hole, has to slow down completely to make a cut, cant run any routes besides a basic swing pass/screen.
Click to expand...

msadows said:
Not to mention he's been going down a LOT this year from arm tackles and losing his balance, which didn't happen as much the last few years. Howard never had big play ability, and always lacked deep speed, but now he can't even regularly get those 3-4 yards he was known for.
Click to expand...

msadows said:
nothing Howard did is special, thus is really has no value.
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Yeah totally not undervaluing him at all lol... :bizarro::bizarro::bizarro:

msadows said:
If he replicates the current season next year he will end up hamstringing our offense. The run game NEEDS to take a big step forward if we want to be a better offense next year, I just don't see howard being part of that solution.
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So to summarize: you think he's slow, indecisive, can't make cuts, can't run routes, hamstrings the offense, and has no real value.

Yup, I can't imagine how anyone would get the impression that you undervalue him lol.
 
msadows

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Broc said:
:thinking:









Yeah totally not undervaluing him at all lol... :bizarro::bizarro::bizarro:



So to summarize: you think he's slow, indecisive, can't make cuts, can't run routes, hamstrings the offense, and has no real value.

Yup, I can't imagine how anyone would get the impression that you undervalue him lol.
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Because in this offense he is below average to bad. Those are all facts I listed, it's not undervaluing a player. He is a bad fit, but he has shown in the past if put in a position to succeed he can be a good back.

Issue is not too many nfl teams run an offense to put him in a position to succeed. He's an old school back in the modern day nfl. He has a place, but it isn't here.

Saying he isn't explosive and versatile enough to be a plus player in this offense isn't undervaluing him, it's being damn realistic.

Howard never has been a guy who can hit the home run, he hit the designated hole with one cut and got yardage on a regular basis. This year he was indecisive and chose the wrong hole plenty of time.
 
Broc

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msadows said:
Because in this offense he is below average to bad. Those are all facts I listed, it's not undervaluing a player.
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Oh I see, you're not undervaluing him, he's just average to bad. Makes perfect sense. :bizarro:

msadows said:
He is a bad fit, but he has shown in the past if put in a position to succeed he can be a good back. Issue is not too many nfl teams run an offense to put him in a position to succeed. He's an old school back in the modern day nfl. He has a place, but it isn't here.
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Howard fits just fine when Nagy actually utilizes him correctly(i.e week 17). He doesn't need a new team and some special old school offense to succeed, he needs his head coach to do his job better and stop smashing his square peg into a round hole.

msadows said:
Saying he isn't explosive and versatile enough to be a plus player in this offense isn't undervaluing him, it's being damn realistic. Howard never has been a guy who can hit the home run, he hit the designated hole with one cut and got yardage on a regular basis. This year he was indecisive and chose the wrong hole plenty of time.
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It's almost like you don't watch the games. Howard's decision making is fine, I'd say it's Nagy's decision making and play calling that needs to improve.

Less lead block gap:
giphy.gif


More inside/outside zone:
giphy.gif


The Bears don't need to desperately move on from Howard. He's perfectly suitable when Nagy utilizes him correctly and cost peanuts. Moving him just for the sake of recouping some 5th or 7th rounder seems counter productive. Utilize him correctly and enjoy that contract year production, let him leave Chicago a SB winner, then replace him in 2020 with one of the 2nd rounders.
 
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