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With the Bears doing their key draft work in the 3rd and 4th round of the draft this year I decided to look and see if there was any real difference between teams success in each round. I looked at the 2014, 15, and 16 drafts to see whether you saw an appreciable difference between the quality of the players that came out of those rounds.
Some of the labeling of the players was very subjective but this is how I did it,
Elite: perhaps not an All Pro or even Pro Bowl player, but a productive starter, or someone who has been given a significant contract or extension. Elite in relation to the rounds they were picked in. Example: OLB Za'Darius Smith was graded as an elite 4th round pick, coming off an 8.5 sack season, and about to sign a big deal with someone.
Good: This is a player that starts, but is not as productive, or someone who is a starting calibre player that may be backing up on the drafting team because of circumstance. Example: WR John Brown who has been productive and is a locked in starter, but not a big time difference maker.
Bad: Someone who is not a starter or developing potential starter, or someone who has already been released or changed teams for minor money or compensation. Example: Deinodre Hall, special teamer only and has been traded for a 7th round pick.
2014
3rd [34]
Elite: 3 [9%]
Good: 11 [32%]
Bad: 20 [59%]
4th [40]
Elite: 2 [5%]
Good: 15 [37.5%]
Bad: 23 [57.5%]
2015
3rd [35]
Elite: 4 [11%]
Good: 11 [32%]
Bad: 20 [57%]
4th [37]
Elite: 4 [11%]
Good: 8 [22%]
Bad: 25 [67%]
2016
3rd [35]
Elite: 6 [17%]
Good: 12 [34%]
Bad: 17 [49%]
4th [40]
Elite: 2 [5%]
Good: 20 [50%]
Bad: 18 [45%]
3rd Round
Elite: 12%
Good: 33%
Bad: 55%
4th Round
Elite: 7%
Good: 37%
Bad: 56%
Observations
There really is not an observable difference between the 3rd and 4th round in terms of the starting calibre talent that comes out of them, or the failure rate across all positions.
There is a noticeable difference in the likelihood that you are drafting an elite/difference making player. The 3rd round had a much better percentage of very good players.
Both rounds are about 50/50 in terms of getting a starting quality player.
Some of the labeling of the players was very subjective but this is how I did it,
Elite: perhaps not an All Pro or even Pro Bowl player, but a productive starter, or someone who has been given a significant contract or extension. Elite in relation to the rounds they were picked in. Example: OLB Za'Darius Smith was graded as an elite 4th round pick, coming off an 8.5 sack season, and about to sign a big deal with someone.
Good: This is a player that starts, but is not as productive, or someone who is a starting calibre player that may be backing up on the drafting team because of circumstance. Example: WR John Brown who has been productive and is a locked in starter, but not a big time difference maker.
Bad: Someone who is not a starter or developing potential starter, or someone who has already been released or changed teams for minor money or compensation. Example: Deinodre Hall, special teamer only and has been traded for a 7th round pick.
2014
3rd [34]
Elite: 3 [9%]
Good: 11 [32%]
Bad: 20 [59%]
4th [40]
Elite: 2 [5%]
Good: 15 [37.5%]
Bad: 23 [57.5%]
2015
3rd [35]
Elite: 4 [11%]
Good: 11 [32%]
Bad: 20 [57%]
4th [37]
Elite: 4 [11%]
Good: 8 [22%]
Bad: 25 [67%]
2016
3rd [35]
Elite: 6 [17%]
Good: 12 [34%]
Bad: 17 [49%]
4th [40]
Elite: 2 [5%]
Good: 20 [50%]
Bad: 18 [45%]
3rd Round
Elite: 12%
Good: 33%
Bad: 55%
4th Round
Elite: 7%
Good: 37%
Bad: 56%
Observations
There really is not an observable difference between the 3rd and 4th round in terms of the starting calibre talent that comes out of them, or the failure rate across all positions.
There is a noticeable difference in the likelihood that you are drafting an elite/difference making player. The 3rd round had a much better percentage of very good players.
Both rounds are about 50/50 in terms of getting a starting quality player.
