Watson vs Mahomes vs Trubisky: 2017 1st Round QB Year 2 Reflection

remydat · Feb 13, 2019

Just to further illustrate this.

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-b...ns-offensive-coordinator-darkhorse-127482672/

There was talk of Ragone being a darkhorse candidate for the Titans job. Yet WCBF somehow thinks he did nothing under Fox and was just waiting for Nagy and Helfrich to arrive.

"Coach Ragone helps me with everything," Trubisky said Monday in Bourbonnais, via Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com. "He knows me better than anyone in the building because we've spent so much time together. He knows how I learn, he knows what drives me, what gets me going, and he comes out here and pushes me every day and expects the best out of me.

"We're pushing each other every day and he's definitely made me better, and I love learning from coach Ragone what drives him as well and how detailed he is in his work and how he expects it from me every single drill no matter what we're doing."

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-b...-Ragone-credit-for-his-improvement-118528169/

And here is Trubs giving Ragone (again the guy Fox brought in) credit for his improvement. So let's cut the bullshit. Fox surrounded Trubs with professional offensive coaches. The issue was Trubs was green as fuck and the WRs were absolutely shitty. I have no problem with Fox being replaced but this narrative that Fox did nothing for him is complete bullshit.

WestCoastBearsFan · Feb 13, 2019

remydat said:
Regression means something was at a certain level and then declined. So the point is Fox (more precisely Ragone and Loggains) worked on his footwork but then most likely due to his learning a new offense with new WRs his footwork declined from where it was in the previous year. Hence the term regression being used ie it was fine before but then got worse in the new offense.

Trubs has the same QB coach he had under Fox/Loggains ie Dave Ragone. It is absurd to think that Nagy would bring back the same QB coach who is the main guy for helping a QB learn mechanics and footwork but yet Ragone magically did nothing for Trubs footwork and mechanics before this season.

So again, your argument makes no sense. This is stuff Ragone worked on with Trubs last year and got to a certain point. Due to all the shit being thrown at him in a new offense, Trubs let his footwork slip or regress. That has nothing to do with Fox. Ragone then most likely had to work with him to get it back to the level it was before and that will probably be a constant work in progress for a young inexperienced QB.

And your original claim that Fox did nothing for him is just stupid. A college QB with 13 starts in college most certainly has a fuck ton to learn and he did not learn it all this year. Fox's biggest contribution seems to be having Logains and Ragone teach Trubs the fundamentals and how to be a professional. He did that by having an offense that was digestable which is the best he could do with such a shitty WR core. We know there was value in what the Fox regime taught Mitch because Nagy saw fit to keep the QB coach that was the main guy working with Trubs. You don't do that if the QB coach taught Trubs nothing.

You’re acting like his footwork was good in his rookie season. It was still awful. My point is it was never addressed in the one season he had with Fox but it was with Nagy. That’s a direct example of how Fox hindered his development since his staff was not able to address it. He is responsible for the performance of his staff.

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didshereallysaythat · Feb 13, 2019

bearmick said:
You're not rebutting my point. I didn't say 100% of the people would put Watson over Trubisky, I said that it's 100% certain that the overall order after all voting would be Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

In your scenario where 40% put Trubisky over Watson (which I think is high and would be closer to 10-20%, but regardless), the order would still be Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

It's a little bit homerish. Fans giving an up and coming player the benefit of the doubt. I don't think it's unrealistic for Trubisky to end up better than Watson. Full blown homerism would be people saying that either QB at this point will end up better than Mahomes since that is very unlikely based on his first year starting.

remydat · Feb 13, 2019

WestCoastBearsFan said:
You’re acting like his footwork was good in his rookie season. It was still awful. My point is it was never addressed in the one season he had with Fox but it was with Nagy. That’s a direct example of how Fox hindered his development since his staff was not able to address it. He is responsible for the performance of his staff.

This is just false. Again to pretend that Dave Ragone did nothing under Fox is stupid. You yourself have noted that progression is not linear. Trubs has been up and down in his mechanics and footwork just like he has been up and down in other areas.

Further, it is likely that next year he will still struggle with mechanics and footwork so you thinking Nagy just magically fixed everything is pretty dumb. He looked terrible from a footwork perspective as late as the Rams game and there were still throws in the Eagles game where his footwork was off. It happens in the heat of battle.

CRM 114 · Feb 13, 2019

bearmick said:
The thread I got the biggest laugh from recently was the one about ranking these three, and while everyone knows what Mahomes is doing is absurd, the overwhelming majority of posters had Trubisky at #2 ahead of Watson. Just outrageous homerism at its finest, and typical of CCS.

You could poll the whole country and get every single analyst and fan to vote, and it's 100% certain that the order would be Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky. But this board over the last couple of years has turned into Trubisky fanboy central and an objective discussion about the position simply cannot occur here at this point.

They're probably basing their opinion of Watson solely off of the playoff game and assuming that's how he looked all season. That's easier for the uneducated meatballs here to do than actually look at the stats.

Rory Sparrow · Feb 13, 2019

bearmick said:
You're not rebutting my point. I didn't say 100% of the people would put Watson over Trubisky, I said that it's 100% certain that the overall order after all voting would be Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

In your scenario where 40% put Trubisky over Watson (which I think is high and would be closer to 10-20%, but regardless), the order would still be Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

We need to see one of those color-coded US maps that ESPN uses to show how different regions voted for the Heisman...like the question would be "Who is the better QB: Cam Newton or Jay Cutler?" and the entire screen is blue except for one little red blob in the middle that represents CCS/Illinois.

bearmick · Feb 13, 2019

didshereallysaythat said:
It's a little bit homerish. Fans giving an up and coming player the benefit of the doubt. I don't think it's unrealistic for Trubisky to end up better than Watson. Full blown homerism would be people saying that either QB at this point will end up better than Mahomes since that is very unlikely based on his first year starting.

Well whether it's a bit homerish or very homerish is open to debate. But as someone who deals in nothing but clean-as-a-whistle objectivity, I'll leave that debate to others.

modo · Feb 13, 2019

It seems many people are still taking a wait and see attitude to where Mitch will wind up. The minority of people have already made their mind up, but seem to be most vocal about it.

HeHateMe · Feb 13, 2019

CRM 114 said:
They're probably basing their opinion of Watson solely off of the playoff game and assuming that's how he looked all season. That's easier for the uneducated meatballs here to do than actually look at the stats.

this

CRM 114 · Feb 14, 2019

I neglected to mention MVP awards

Mahomes: 1
Watson: would have had 1 if not for an unfortunate non contact injury
Trubisky: has never even been seriously considered for one

remydat · Feb 14, 2019

CRM 114 said:
I neglected to mention MVP awards

Mahomes: 1
Watson: would have had 1 if not for an unfortunate non contact injury
Trubisky: has never even been seriously considered for one

Don't think you can claim Watson would have had one as you don't know how he would have played for rest of season. You can claim he was in contention at time of injury.

Les Grossman · Feb 14, 2019

CRM 114 said:
I neglected to mention MVP awards

Mahomes: 1
Watson: would have had 1 if not for an unfortunate non contact injury
Trubisky: has never even been seriously considered for one

They don't usually give MVPs to mediocre teams, and even with Watson putting up monster stats, I don't believe the Texans had a great record.

That said, it goes:

Mahomes, Watson, then Trubisky. It's pretty clear at this point.

botfly10 · Feb 14, 2019

remydat said:
Regression means something was at a certain level and then declined. So the point is Fox (more precisely Ragone and Loggains) worked on his footwork but then most likely due to his learning a new offense with new WRs his footwork declined from where it was in the previous year. Hence the term regression being used ie it was fine before but then got worse in the new offense.

Trubs has the same QB coach he had under Fox/Loggains ie Dave Ragone. It is absurd to think that Nagy would bring back the same QB coach who is the main guy for helping a QB learn mechanics and footwork but yet Ragone magically did nothing for Trubs footwork and mechanics before this season.

So again, your argument makes no sense. This is stuff Ragone worked on with Trubs last year and got to a certain point. Due to all the shit being thrown at him in a new offense, Trubs let his footwork slip or regress. That has nothing to do with Fox. Ragone then most likely had to work with him to get it back to the level it was before and that will probably be a constant work in progress for a young inexperienced QB.

And your original claim that Fox did nothing for him is just stupid. A college QB with 13 starts in college most certainly has a fuck ton to learn and he did not learn it all this year. Fox's biggest contribution seems to be having Logains and Ragone teach Trubs the fundamentals and how to be a professional. He did that by having an offense that was digestable which is the best he could do with such a shitty WR core. We know there was value in what the Fox regime taught Mitch because Nagy saw fit to keep the QB coach that was the main guy working with Trubs. You don't do that if the QB coach taught Trubs nothing.

lol this post

airtime143 · Feb 15, 2019

CRM 114 said:
They're probably basing their opinion of Watson solely off of the playoff game and assuming that's how he looked all season. That's easier for the uneducated meatballs here to do than actually look at the stats.

I wouldnt doubt it. those same people would probably flip out if the Rams game was used to judge Trubisky.
Watson was steady and produced well all year.

With this season said and done, I like the results of the team but I am a touch wary bout mitch, and would love to see him improve.
Looking at JUST the stats without context, he turned in a good season.
Looking at the stats with context, there is slight concern.

Lucky for our comparison purposes here, both Trubisky and Watson had 1 huge day as outliers this season. Eliminating those and looking at normal production begins to separate the 2.

Take away Trubiskys big 6 td day... which accounted for 25% of his td passes this season, he sits with an 18 td to 12 picks... not to great.
Take away Watsons big 5 td day, (17%) Watson still sits with a respectable 21 tds and 9 ints.

I dont really consider that to be a cherry picked stat. Both guys get their huge outlier tossed and the remaining games paint a large difference in productivity.

After years of dealing with Jay and his penchant for beating up on bums and performing mediocre at best against average to good teams, I am a little hesitant to have faith in Mitch until the point he can hit the 2-1 ratio without a huge day vs. a bum. He might get there next year, it is looking fairly positive... but Watson very much seems like a more polished player at this point and a more consistent one as well.

r1terrell23 · Feb 15, 2019

@airtime

If you take away their best games you need to take away their worst game. Also, Trusbisky's stats in your scenario are over 13 games.

He got better after the first few weeks of the season, but he needs to hit his open WRs more often. I can live with the picks, but hit those wide open big plays.

bamainatlanta · Feb 15, 2019

r1terrell23 said:
@airtime

If you take away their best games you need to take away their worst game. Also, Trusbisky's stats in your scenario are over 13 games.

He got better after the first few weeks of the season, but he needs to hit his open WRs more often. I can live with the picks, but hit those wide open big plays.

I love that only positive outliers are to be removed.

JP Hochbaum · Feb 15, 2019

These comparisons are stupid.

Unless you get LUCKY and happen to pick the best player at the position you draft you can do this for every player and kill yourself over it.

No GM has ever done this in the history of the game and never will.

bamainatlanta · Feb 15, 2019

JP Hochbaum said:
These comparisons are stupid.

Unless you get LUCKY and happen to pick the best player at the position you draft you can do this for every player and kill yourself over it.

No GM has ever done this in the history of the game and never will.

That's incorrect. The armchair GMs on this board have never been incorrect.

airtime143 · Feb 15, 2019

r1terrell23 said:
@airtime

If you take away their best games you need to take away their worst game. Also, Trusbisky's stats in your scenario are over 13 games.

He got better after the first few weeks of the season, but he needs to hit his open WRs more often. I can live with the picks, but hit those wide open big plays.

Taking out the worst games barely moves the needle-
Trubs would be at 17-9, Watson at 20 and 7.

You reference Trubs being 13 games, and that is actually what is concerning... that is about a pick a game.

Lets take it the other way. Lets leave in the good, toss out the worst... will that cut the bitching? (never mind the fact I pulled a 5 td game from Watson...whatever helps you sleep at night).

Take out trubs worst game, leave in the best, he sits at 23 and 9.... while doing the same for watson puts him at 25 and 7.
Take out the 2 worst games for each puts mitch at 21 and 7, Watson at 24 and 5.....
Leave in the good games... the separation is there on the td to int ratio. take out the good games, it remains. take the top and bottom out, it remains. no matter how you slice it, Watson comes out on top currently.

Point being, it is all fine and good, fun to watch trubs put up 6 tds on a day when he needs 1 to win... but the other 12 weeks were fairly mediocre no matter how you slice it.
I would guess the ones complaining about it being unfair omitting the 6 td game in an overview of mitches career production are the same guys that would scream bloody murder if someone tried to point out Flynn was pretty good since he had a 14-7 td to int ratio for his career from his 6 td game out.

Irrational homers will homer.

Les Grossman · Feb 15, 2019

Dude those numbers you posted above are pretty darn similar. Especially considering all the other things besides looking a ONlY two stats. Not sure what your point is?

Yes Watson is better, but I think most here act like he’s a whole galaxy better.

Watson vs Mahomes vs Trubisky: 2017 1st Round QB Year 2 Reflection

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