Garza isn't as bad as you think

Things change, and that doesn't mean simply the numbers.



Oh, sure, many numbers themselves have changed since last season. For instance, A.J. Burnett, who had the third-worst qualified ERA (5.26) in 2010, has a palatable 3-1 record and 3.52 ERA so far this year. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey, whose 2.84 ERA ranked 10th last season, has a 4.10 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in five games in 2011.



It happens. "Small sample size," "regression to the mean," "luck" or whatever casual rationale you prefer for random statistical fluctuations, numbers will always change. That's baseball. For every player who has experienced a numbers bump (or drop), there's always the possibility it's mere random, short-term fluctuation.



But it's the players whose statistics have changed for an identifiable reason that warrant our attention. These are your burgeoning buy-highs and sell-lows, your exploitable trends, your questions with an actionable answer. To put that another way, we get hundreds of questions about specific hot- or slow-starting players. Some of them deserve a pithy explanation like, "It's early," because there's no underlying evidence to alter our preseason opinion. For others, much has changed; there's a lot more to the story than mere statistics.



These are the players to latch on to (or, conversely, let go of).




TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS
Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.

Rnk Player, Team Prev
Rnk
1 Roy Halladay, PHI 1
2 Tim Lincecum, SF 2
3 Felix Hernandez, SEA 3
4 Jered Weaver, LAA 6
5 Cliff Lee, PHI 4
6 Josh Johnson, FLA 7
7 Clayton Kershaw, LAD 5
8 Dan Haren, LAA 9
9 Jon Lester, BOS 8
10 Justin Verlander, DET 10
11 CC Sabathia, NYY 11
12 David Price, TB 17
13 Roy Oswalt, PHI 16
14 Ubaldo Jimenez, COL 12
15 Matt Cain, SF 13
16 Cole Hamels, PHI 15
17 Chris Carpenter, STL 14
18 Tim Hudson, ATL 18
19 Tommy Hanson, ATL 19
20 Zack Greinke, MIL 20
21 Shaun Marcum, MIL 24
22 Chad Billingsley, LAD 21
23 John Danks, CHW 25
24 Max Scherzer, DET 26
25 Trevor Cahill, OAK 27
26 Jhoulys Chacin, COL 28
27 Yovani Gallardo, MIL 22
28 Mat Latos, SD 23
29 Matt Garza, CHC 29
30 Brett Anderson, OAK 36
31 Josh Beckett, BOS 38
32 Jaime Garcia, STL 32
33 Brandon Morrow, TOR 44
34 Jonathan Sanchez, SF 31
35 Hiroki Kuroda, LAD 35
36 Ricky Romero, TOR 37
37 Ricky Nolasco, FLA 40
38 Brett Myers, HOU 33
39 Anibal Sanchez, FLA 60
40 Gio Gonzalez, OAK 39
41 Ted Lilly, LAD 30
42 Jorge De La Rosa, COL 50
43 Derek Lowe, ATL 46
44 Wandy Rodriguez, HOU 41
45 Colby Lewis, TEX 34
46 Gavin Floyd, CHW 48
47 C.J. Wilson, TEX 54
48 Bronson Arroyo, CIN 49
49 Clay Buchholz, BOS 47
50 Daniel Hudson, ARI 45
51 Francisco Liriano, MIN 43
52 James Shields, TB 69
53 Alexi Ogando, TEX 56
54 Michael Pineda, SEA 64
55 Aaron Harang, SD 65
56 Kyle McClellan, STL 55
57 Edinson Volquez, CIN 68
58 Jordan Zimmermann, WAS 51
59 Ervin Santana, LAA 52
60 Ryan Dempster, CHC 53
61 Derek Holland, TEX 63
62 Ian Kennedy, ARI 61
63 Jeremy Hellickson, TB 57
64 Matt Harrison, TEX 71
65 Scott Baker, MIN 89
66 Edwin Jackson, CHW 42
67 Jeremy Guthrie, BAL 59
68 Brian Duensing, MIN 74
69 Wade Davis, TB 67
70 Justin Masterson, CLE 83
71 Carl Pavano, MIN 58
72 Carlos Zambrano, CHC 73
73 Jair Jurrjens, ATL 75
74 A.J. Burnett, NYY 79
75 Kyle Drabek, TOR 62
76 Zach Britton, BAL 80
77 Randy Wolf, MIL 97
78 Bud Norris, HOU 77
79 Kyle Lohse, STL 87
80 Brandon McCarthy, OAK 92
81 John Lackey, BOS 96
82 Jason Hammel, COL 94
83 Brandon Beachy, ATL NR
84 Fausto Carmona, CLE 76
85 Dallas Braden, OAK 70
86 Johnny Cueto, CIN 78
87 Travis Wood, CIN 66
88 Clayton Richard, SD 93
89 Jake Peavy, CHW 99
90 Johan Santana, NYM 82
91 Jeff Francis, KC 81
92 Chris Narveson, MIL 91
93 Kevin Correia, PIT 88
94 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS NR
95 Tim Stauffer, SD NR
96 Brian Matusz, BAL 72
97 Madison Bumgarner, SF 84
98 Chris Young, NYM NR
99 Jon Garland, LAD NR
100 Jesse Litsch, TOR NR



If you look at my top 100 starting pitcher rankings (at right) this week, one such example might stand out: Matt Garza, who is the only member of my top 30 to have scored a negative value on our Player Rater, or at least one that wasn't influenced by a smaller sample due to a disabled-list stint (Ubaldo Jimenez, Zack Greinke and Mat Latos, of course, have spent time on the DL). Garza's zero wins, 4.11 ERA and 1.47 WHIP might have soured some of his fantasy owners, especially those who play in rotisserie 4x4 formats (which was the original roto format).



Everything else about Garza's game, however, signals positive things ahead. Compare his 2011 peripherals to 2010's and you'll see why:



K's per nine: 6.60 in 2010 (and 7.30 career), 12.03 in 2011
Walks per nine: 2.77 in 2010 (3.15 career), 2.64 in 2011
Ground ball rate: 35.8 percent in 2010 (40.1 career), 50.6 in 2011
FIP: 4.42 in 2010 (4.14 career), 1.25 in 2011
xFIP: 4.31 in 2010 (4.25 career), 1.93 in 2011
Swinging-strike rate: 7.5 percent in 2010 (8.0 career), 10.0 in 2011



One possible rationale for Garza's increased strikeout rate is more reliance on his slider; among pitchers who have thrown a slider 60 or more times, per Inside Edge, he has the highest rate of strikeouts per plate appearance (59 percent), and opponents have batted .103 BA/.125 OBP/.154 SLG against that particular offering. Garza has also thrown his slider almost twice as often this season as he did in any of his three years in Tampa Bay, 22.7 percent of the time, compared to 13.0, 13.1 and 14.0 from 2008 to 2010, per FanGraphs.



And with those facts, you've got a reasonable explanation for why Garza's 2011 performance appears so radically different, statistically speaking, from his 2010 performance. This is no "random fluctuation;" this might be new growth for the right-hander, who at age 27 is in his prime, an understandable time for it to happen. The league switch only fuels such momentum. It's for that reason I keep Garza high in my rankings, and why he's a smart buy-low right now.

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Captain Obvious said:

He has been great. In fact, he's been if not the best pitcher in baseball, certainly one of the top few.

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DewsSox79 said:

:rofl:

what a homer.

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Captain Obvious said:

Yes! I was hoping you would post... just so I could do this....

FIP: 1.24; 1st
xFIP: 1.93; 1st
WAR: 1.6; T-1st
K/9: 12.03; 1st
HR/9: 0; T-1st
BABIP: .414; last(says something, doesn't it?)
FB%: 21.7%; 6th(this is from a fly ball pitcher, I might add. See homeruns.)

Okay, now I have used multiple stats to evaluate a player. Flatter me.

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DewsSox79 said:

haha! yeah great choices cherry picking stats once again!

bold see LD %

lol @ WAR

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DewsSox79 said:

1) you have to be the biggest homer

2) you cherry pick saberstats to back up your "claims"

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daddies3angels said:

i have liked Garza....has had alot of balls fallen in..once that comes back to normal i think he still wins 12-15

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Captain Obvious said:

Exactly. But it's not his fault that those balls fell. He is control of HRs(0), K's(12.03/9), and BB(2.64/9). He has pitched phenomenally.

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DewsSox79 said:

king of excuses.

oh and WAR, ummm lets see, IT HAS TOO MANY FLAWS!

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Captain Obvious said:

Or I simply know how to look at a pitcher and tell how good he is.

You used one stat Dewey. I thought you couldn't use one stat to evaluate a player? Your words, not mine.

No one is saying WAR is perfect. However, it is all-inclusive. It allows us to include everything about a player.

Plus, it's not like you use anything better. Or anything at all.

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DewsSox79 said:

"Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

WAR can be calculated for both pitchers and position players. It goes a step further than the defense-independent pitching stats listed above, to calculate exactly how many wins an individual pitcher is worth to his team above the replacement level. “Replacement level” refers to a caliber of talent that is readily available to any team in a given league, and is typically well below what would be considered average. To figure out WAR, the general standard is to use a replacement level winning percentage of .380.



To calculate WAR, you start by determining how many runs equal one win. This utilizes an extremely complicated formula that incorporates a pitcher’s FIP (or DERA), as well as his average innings pitched per start. The resulting number reflects how many runs that pitcher must save in order to get credit for one win.

Then take the pitcher’s FIP and subtract it from the league-average FIP, and then divide that number by the number of runs needed for one win (from the previous paragraph). The result will be a fraction; add that to .500 to find the pitcher’s winning percentage. Then subtract .380 from that number to find the pitcher’s winning percentage above replacement level per nine innings. Finally, multiply the resulting figure by the pitcher’s total innings pitched, and then divide by nine. The result is WAR, expressed as the number of wins that pitcher is worth."

Technically WAR is a combo of stats in a formula, so using each variable to add to a specific stat is NOT seperate stats.

But keep thinking that Garza is the best or one of the best pitchers right now.

I also like how you defend sorianos defense with UZR and numbers and think that eyes dont matter but than you state in the chatbox that dempster has pitched better than his numbers indicate, wait wait was it because some balls left the yard on a windy day at wrigley....how windy is it in AZ tonight? you say one thing to back up your arguement than contradict it with another point. you do this on a regular basis.

but like you say like the child you are "prove me wrong prove me wrong"

dope

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Captain Obvious said:

What should I use to see who the best pitchers are? ERA? LOL. You're fucking clueless.

So we should use our eyes for everything now? Yeah, that's real smart.

When did I say Demp pitched better than his number indicate?

Bro, you say all the time how you need to use more than one stat. I used fucking 7! 4 of them have nothing to do with saber. You used one stat. You used one when you say not to use one. If that isn't contradicting yourself, then I don't know what is.

It's cool that you want to live in your own little world where baseball is the same game that it was 25 years ago, but it's not. It's completely different. We have a shitload more knowledge and we're using that. No one is saying that you have to, but don't call people stupid and act like you know everything, when you clearly don't. You can ignore these stats all you want, but they are very good stats. If you're going to go against them, at least use something else to back your point up with.

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