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Introduction
So I undertake this exercise to justify my heart’s desire to still root for the major league team. To hold onto that impossible hope of this team being good enough to grab at least one of the two wildcard spots in a weak National League and an even weaker Central Division. So I set out to look at this team with the most rose colored glasses that I can muster, and see what might be possible.
The Lineup
1.RF David DeJesus- One Epstein/Hoyer buy low acquisition on the offensive side was David DeJesus. DeJesus had a down year with a .323 OBP, but prior to that season he had never had an OBP below .347. Asked to be the Cubs leadoff hitter a return to that .347+ version isn’t out of the question and would be more than welcome. His BABIP was also the lowest in his entire career and while his K% did jump his walk rate was in line with previous seasons. A few more balls falling into place should see his OBP and AVG climb back into the range we are used to. Also DeJesus has always struggled with lefties, and with the Cubs current configuration of the bench he shouldn’t have to start against any lefties with Reed Johnson, Joe Mather, and Jeff Baker all available to take those at bats. DeJesus did hit 10 homeruns with Oakland which isn’t exactly easy playing half your games in the Coliseum. HSL*-.285/.345/.445
2.2B Darwin Barney- Darwin Barney started last season on a tear and formed a dangerous 1-2 combination with Castro at the beginning of the year, but as teams found out that Barney couldn’t drive the ball over most OFs head and didn’t like to take walks his offense declined rapidly after that hot start. Barney did walk at the lowest rate in his career last season at 3.9%. Every other season the walk rate was over 4.5%. Also his BABIP was lower than his LD% +.120 (.310 to .330). It isn’t impossible that Barney could hit .300 which combined with his defense would make him a slightly above average player.
HSL-.290/.335/.370
3.SS Starlin Castro- The best hitter is unquestionable Starlin Castro who more than likely will be asked to carry the weight of a middle of the order hitter, a role that he struggled with when he was thrust into last season. Castro has hit for a high average without a ton of power in a position that is defense first. Castro’s homerun total did jump from 3 to 10 last year and that came with Castro hitting slightly fewer groundballs. Castro could take a huge step forward if that power continues to develop into the 15-20 range this season. That increase in power should also result in an increase in walks as teams begin to pitch around Castro more if he is a more consistent threat to drive the ball out of the ballpark.
HSL-.315/.355/.470
4.1B Brian LaHair- Brian LaHair might be the biggest question mark on the team this season. The dude has crushed the ball in the hitting friendly environs of the PCL the past several seasons. Unfortunately those seasons were his fourth through sixth run through the Pacific Coast League and ages 26 to 28. However, Brian LaHair’s friend and fellow Mariners farmhand Michael Morse followed a similar career path to becoming a legitimate power hitter. LaHair is going to be counted on as the cleanup hitter. He led the PCL in homeruns last season, and hitting 30 homeruns isn’t out of the question given the regular at bats LaHair should get this season.
HSL-.270/.350/.500
5.LF Alfonso Soriano- Alfonso Soriano has to be the most maligned Cub in history, and I understand why with the historic contract he received which was promptly followed by his legs leaving him. Soriano was unlucky with the BABIP as well. .266 was the lowest amongst Cubs that played a full season last year. There is a good chance that the average should rebound a little, and if his power continues from this spring he could have a really nice rebound season. Soriano started last season with a ton of power, but it tailed off the rest of the year. He has had a ton of power this spring as well, and a return to 30 homeruns and a .270 average isn’t impossible with a few more balls falling for him this year.
HSL-.260/.320/.500
6.3B Ian Stewart- Ian Stewart is a guy that confuses me. He has always been young for the league he has played in, but his numbers have never been that great. He had a solid season two years ago where he hit 25 homeruns, but he does have a lot of Carlos Pena in him that he isn’t going to hit for a high average, strikeouts and walks a lot. His BABIP was also terribly low last year when he hit below the Mendoza line in 40 some odd games. Stewart was also hampered by a wrist injury throughout the season. This season, if healthy, we could see a big rebound on this buy low candidate.
HSL-.250/.340/.450
7. CF Marlon Byrd- Byrd is in the final year of his contract that he netted from the Cubs after a big year in Texas. He has yet to deliver the 20 homerun power he flashed in Arlington, but he has been consistent the past couple of seasons. Last year saw a dip in his overall numbers, but given his face was obliterated by a fastball in the middle of the year I think we can excuse the dip. A return of a little more power should see a boost in average and OBP.
HSL-.290/.345/.470
8.C Geovany Soto- Soto was another player that was a bit unlucky with the BABIP. He was incredibly unlucky to start the year, but as the year wore on the numbers started to even out some. Soto has followed the Kyle Farnsworth pattern of being amazing one year and not so amazing the following year. Soto has come into camp in great shape, who doesn’t I know. But that adds to the possibilities of Soto returning to the form of 2008 and 2010. That version of Soto is a middle of the order hitter that this team needs.
HSL-.280/.370/.500
Baserunning
The Cubs lack speed to really challenge teams on the basepaths, but the focus during spring training has been the attention to detail and work on fundamentals. The Cubs avoiding mistakes that cost them the most precious of baseball commodities, outs, than this would be an improvement over last year. The Cubs did an average job of converting baserunners into runs, and being able to maximum these chances would help further mask the lack of legitimate impact bats. But that is also the beauty of the game of baseball. Every player has to take a turn in the batting order, and so despite the fact that Cubs lack true impact bats a smart, fundamental lineup without holes can still be dangerous.Overall
This gets us to the heart of the matter. If the Cubs lineup gets rebound years from Soto, Soriano, DeJesus and Stewart with the continued development of Castro and Barney and the emergence of a 29 career minor leaguer into Michael Morse, the lineup could actually be dangerous. That lineup would have two guys capable of hitting 30+ homeruns (LaHair, Soriano), two guys capable of hitting 20 plus homeruns (Stewart, Soto), and the rest, except for Barney, capable of hitting more than 10. While the lineup would lack that guy you fear that can be masked by not having holes in the lineup. If a high contact guy like Darwin Barney is the offensive hole in the lineup than it will be a more productive lineup than last year despite the loss of two of its most productive hitters.*HSL=Hope Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is my predicted best case for each player based on previous history, projections, and my delusional hope that this year won’t be a waste.
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