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Part 1
Pitching
Pitching was the undoing of the Cubs last year. This is such an odd thing for me to write after having spent the better part of the past 15 years lamenting the lack of offense with the terrific pitching. However, the injuries to Cubs starting pitching derailed whatever slim hope the Cubs had that season. This year Theo and Jed made a focus on depth. The Cubs didn’t add any impact pitching. They didn’t add any impact players anyway, but that was the strategy. Again buy low on some rebound candidates, turn short term assets into long term assets, etc.
1.Matt Garza- Garza took a huge step forward last year turning into the pitcher that many had predicted for a long time with him. Garza changed his pitch selection slightly and the results was tremendous when looking at the advanced and regular metrics that measure pitching. His ERA was a sparkling 3.32, but his FIP was an even better 2.95 indicating perhaps that the Cubs poor defense and a little luck might have prevented him from even more stellar results. Garza taking another step forward could turn him into a true ace type pitcher. The stuff has always been there, and more experience might net the Cubs the pitcher that was worth giving up a Hak-ju Lee and more.
2.Ryan Dempster- had an atrocious April. There is no sugar coating it. The start that Ryan Dempster had was worthy of the nickname many detractors of fond of using, Dumpster. Dempster however recovered quickly and the ERA continued to drop throughout the season. He finished the season with a well below average 4.80, but looking at the advanced stats paint the picture of a particularly unlucky pitcher. Dempster had an xFIP of 3.70, and prior to that had been the Cubs most consistent pitcher. A return to form isn’t out of the question, and that would be a legitimate 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation.
3.Jeff Samardzija- Samardzija finally found consistent success in a bullpen role last season. He came to camp determined to make the rotation, and he did that just that with a stellar spring. It would have been spotless if not for a blip against the Rockies. Samardzija doesn’t have enough of a track record to really know what we might get. The guy has only been a full time pitcher for five years now. The raw talent that is Jeff Samardzjija could be harnessed into a top of the rotation starter or who could be a backend of the rotation guy. He is likely to have some ups and downs, but he might be the biggest surprise for the Cubs. The guy has really good stuff, and if he has learned how to pitch we might really have something.
4.Chris Volstad- Volstad had a very strong rookie campaign in 2008, but has struggled ever since. Volstad had a 4.89 ERA last season. However, his advanced metrics also paint the picture of an unlucky starter. xFIP had his season at 3.64. He has good stuff as well, and has the body type you look for in a workhorse starter. He gets a ton of groundballs, and he is just 25. If he can keep a few more flyballs in the park he could be another nice option in the rotation.
5.Paul Maholm- Maholm is the sole southpaw in the rotation. Yet another buy low candidate that Theo and Jed specialized in the offseason. He actually is coming off of one his better seasons. He had a 3.66 ERA for the Pirates last season. Unfortunately a shoulder issue ended his season prematurely, and he only managed to make 26 starts for a little over 162 innings. Maholm has been a consistently below average to average starter. It is unlikely that he is going to perform much better than last season, but he doesn’t have to for the Cubs to succeed. If he just manages to stay healthy and perform like he did last season the Cubs will have a better back end of the rotation starter than most teams in the league.
The bullpen was also a problem area for the Cubs last season. Not nearly as much as a problem as the starting staff was, and the problems in the rotation magnified the issues in the bullpen. Better starting pitching will be a huge first step towards improving the bullpen. The second big improvement could come from Carlos Marmol. Marmol was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for several seasons in a row. The wheels fell off last season as his fastball velocity dipped and his slider tended to flatten and increased in velocity. The difference in velocity between the fastball and slider decreasing led to Marmol being hit harder than any other point in his career. Marmol is never going to have good control. The only way he is going to be successful is by striking a lot of guys out. The issues in velocity pointed to a possible injury, but Marmol managed to stay healthy last season. Perhaps the problem was dead arm or mental. Or perhaps it was dead arm that led to a loss of confidence. He struggled early in camp, but rebounded after new manager Dale Sveum pulled him aside. Marmol is going to be the closer and there really isn’t anyone to take the spot from him.
Kerry Wood returns to make all of us feel better about this season, myself included. Wood is still an average reliever, and a veteran presence. James Russell had a bipolar season. He was beyond terrible as a starting pitcher, but he was quite good as a reliever. He is going to be counted on as the only left hander in the bullpen. This means that he is likely to be very busy, but he was effective in the role last season. Rafael Dollis is likely to land one of the spots in the bullpen. He has a live arm, and could be a nice addition. He has a good spring and with how volatile relievers are it is hard to predict exactly what you will get from him. He could be another solid arm. Sean Camp was added late. He was a surprise cut from Mariners camp coming off a solid season in Toronto last season, getting a major league contract, and having a decent spring. Camp could help fill in as another veteran presence that has had success in the much tougher AL East. Rodrigo Lopez has had a good spring, and is probably going to make the club as a swing/long man in the bullpen. Lopez should flashes last seasons, but clearly doesn’t have the stuff to make it more than once through the rotation. Lendry Castillo was the Cubs Rule 5 pick. Castillo is newish to pitching, and is probably going to struggle at times. However, he has a good fastball and has held his own in spring training so far. Manny Corpas is another reclamation project in the bullpen. He has a history of success, but he has quite a few years removed from it. Maybe Chris Bosio can work some magic.
The starting staff is a lot like the lineup in the sense that depth is going to have to make up for the lack of elite talent at any spot. The rotation does not have that elite Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, etc. type ace. However, there Is the potential for the Cubs to have five average to above average starters in the rotation, and if you have 5 guys that can give quality starters more times than not you are going to be in a lot of ballgames. The nice thing for the Cubs is that there is actual depth with their rotation this season. A guy that last season was being counted on to hold down a turn in the rotation every fifth day is now going to be waiting in Iowa. Randy Wells really struggled last season but had a really good season two years ago and an average one the year before. Wells finished last season fairly strong, and had a nice spring before being optioned to Iowa. There is a big difference in counting on Randy Wells as your sixth starter than a Doug Davis. Travis Wood has struggled, but is just 25. There is time for him to figure things out and again the difference between him and Doug Davis is pretty clear. Casey Coleman has shown some flashes as a reliever. A fastball that struggled to reach 90 consistently as a starter was clocking at 93-94 as a reliever. Coleman might actually be a useful arm in the bullpen if one of the many gambles in the pen doesn’t work out.
The only thing worse than the Cubs pitching last season was the defense. Now defense isn’t unimportant, but the poor defense only magnified the flaws of this team. The flaws on defense didn’t create the mess that was the 2011 Cubs. However, Dale Sveum has shown an attention to detail, and much has been made about the various creative ways the staff has focused on fundamentals. Every Cubs manager has talked about fundamentals and accountability, but the keystone cops performance have been a common treat for visitors to Wrigley Field. Perhaps this time will be different. I certainly don’t recall as many different ways that we have heard about them working on fundamentals prior to this spring. The actual players on the field are pretty similar to last season. Out of the eight position players five will be returning. Soriano is what he is, which is not very good on defense, and only getting worse as his legs degrade. However, a new administration that has new need to cater to Soriano should be more willing to remove Soriano when the situation is calls for it. Byrd is a solid if unspectacular center field. DeJesus is a decent defensive OF. Fukudome was rated poorly by previous defensive metrics so DeJesus might actually be an upgrade on the field. It won’t be by much, but every little bit helps I guess.
The only player more scrutinized for his glove than Soriano was Starlin Castro. Castro made a ton of errors, but he has a cannon for an arm. He will still make some errors, but as countless examples have shown shortstops tend to get better as they age. The natural progression, combined with Sveum’s attention to detail, should help Castro cut down on those errors. Add in that Castro will make some plays that only he and a handful of other guys are capable, and we could see a significant improvement in the up the middle defense of the Cubs. Darwin Barney is a nice defensive 2B. With an improved Castro, the Cubs double play combination could be one of the better ones in the National League. Ian Stewart is the one true huge defensive upgrade the Cubs made. Aramis Ramirez has always been a bat first 3B, who at best was a below average defensive 3B. Ian Stewart brings a steady glove and better range to the position than Ramirez provided the year before. Soto is a steady defensive catcher behind the plate. The difference in defense is going to have to be made, for the most part, by the coaching staff. Sveum has already hinted at that better positioning of the defenders should occur this season than last. Hopefully this is true because the Cubs are going to need every edge they can get.
Pitching
Pitching was the undoing of the Cubs last year. This is such an odd thing for me to write after having spent the better part of the past 15 years lamenting the lack of offense with the terrific pitching. However, the injuries to Cubs starting pitching derailed whatever slim hope the Cubs had that season. This year Theo and Jed made a focus on depth. The Cubs didn’t add any impact pitching. They didn’t add any impact players anyway, but that was the strategy. Again buy low on some rebound candidates, turn short term assets into long term assets, etc.
1.Matt Garza- Garza took a huge step forward last year turning into the pitcher that many had predicted for a long time with him. Garza changed his pitch selection slightly and the results was tremendous when looking at the advanced and regular metrics that measure pitching. His ERA was a sparkling 3.32, but his FIP was an even better 2.95 indicating perhaps that the Cubs poor defense and a little luck might have prevented him from even more stellar results. Garza taking another step forward could turn him into a true ace type pitcher. The stuff has always been there, and more experience might net the Cubs the pitcher that was worth giving up a Hak-ju Lee and more.
2.Ryan Dempster- had an atrocious April. There is no sugar coating it. The start that Ryan Dempster had was worthy of the nickname many detractors of fond of using, Dumpster. Dempster however recovered quickly and the ERA continued to drop throughout the season. He finished the season with a well below average 4.80, but looking at the advanced stats paint the picture of a particularly unlucky pitcher. Dempster had an xFIP of 3.70, and prior to that had been the Cubs most consistent pitcher. A return to form isn’t out of the question, and that would be a legitimate 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation.
3.Jeff Samardzija- Samardzija finally found consistent success in a bullpen role last season. He came to camp determined to make the rotation, and he did that just that with a stellar spring. It would have been spotless if not for a blip against the Rockies. Samardzija doesn’t have enough of a track record to really know what we might get. The guy has only been a full time pitcher for five years now. The raw talent that is Jeff Samardzjija could be harnessed into a top of the rotation starter or who could be a backend of the rotation guy. He is likely to have some ups and downs, but he might be the biggest surprise for the Cubs. The guy has really good stuff, and if he has learned how to pitch we might really have something.
4.Chris Volstad- Volstad had a very strong rookie campaign in 2008, but has struggled ever since. Volstad had a 4.89 ERA last season. However, his advanced metrics also paint the picture of an unlucky starter. xFIP had his season at 3.64. He has good stuff as well, and has the body type you look for in a workhorse starter. He gets a ton of groundballs, and he is just 25. If he can keep a few more flyballs in the park he could be another nice option in the rotation.
5.Paul Maholm- Maholm is the sole southpaw in the rotation. Yet another buy low candidate that Theo and Jed specialized in the offseason. He actually is coming off of one his better seasons. He had a 3.66 ERA for the Pirates last season. Unfortunately a shoulder issue ended his season prematurely, and he only managed to make 26 starts for a little over 162 innings. Maholm has been a consistently below average to average starter. It is unlikely that he is going to perform much better than last season, but he doesn’t have to for the Cubs to succeed. If he just manages to stay healthy and perform like he did last season the Cubs will have a better back end of the rotation starter than most teams in the league.
Bullpen
The bullpen was also a problem area for the Cubs last season. Not nearly as much as a problem as the starting staff was, and the problems in the rotation magnified the issues in the bullpen. Better starting pitching will be a huge first step towards improving the bullpen. The second big improvement could come from Carlos Marmol. Marmol was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for several seasons in a row. The wheels fell off last season as his fastball velocity dipped and his slider tended to flatten and increased in velocity. The difference in velocity between the fastball and slider decreasing led to Marmol being hit harder than any other point in his career. Marmol is never going to have good control. The only way he is going to be successful is by striking a lot of guys out. The issues in velocity pointed to a possible injury, but Marmol managed to stay healthy last season. Perhaps the problem was dead arm or mental. Or perhaps it was dead arm that led to a loss of confidence. He struggled early in camp, but rebounded after new manager Dale Sveum pulled him aside. Marmol is going to be the closer and there really isn’t anyone to take the spot from him.
Kerry Wood returns to make all of us feel better about this season, myself included. Wood is still an average reliever, and a veteran presence. James Russell had a bipolar season. He was beyond terrible as a starting pitcher, but he was quite good as a reliever. He is going to be counted on as the only left hander in the bullpen. This means that he is likely to be very busy, but he was effective in the role last season. Rafael Dollis is likely to land one of the spots in the bullpen. He has a live arm, and could be a nice addition. He has a good spring and with how volatile relievers are it is hard to predict exactly what you will get from him. He could be another solid arm. Sean Camp was added late. He was a surprise cut from Mariners camp coming off a solid season in Toronto last season, getting a major league contract, and having a decent spring. Camp could help fill in as another veteran presence that has had success in the much tougher AL East. Rodrigo Lopez has had a good spring, and is probably going to make the club as a swing/long man in the bullpen. Lopez should flashes last seasons, but clearly doesn’t have the stuff to make it more than once through the rotation. Lendry Castillo was the Cubs Rule 5 pick. Castillo is newish to pitching, and is probably going to struggle at times. However, he has a good fastball and has held his own in spring training so far. Manny Corpas is another reclamation project in the bullpen. He has a history of success, but he has quite a few years removed from it. Maybe Chris Bosio can work some magic.
Overall
The starting staff is a lot like the lineup in the sense that depth is going to have to make up for the lack of elite talent at any spot. The rotation does not have that elite Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, etc. type ace. However, there Is the potential for the Cubs to have five average to above average starters in the rotation, and if you have 5 guys that can give quality starters more times than not you are going to be in a lot of ballgames. The nice thing for the Cubs is that there is actual depth with their rotation this season. A guy that last season was being counted on to hold down a turn in the rotation every fifth day is now going to be waiting in Iowa. Randy Wells really struggled last season but had a really good season two years ago and an average one the year before. Wells finished last season fairly strong, and had a nice spring before being optioned to Iowa. There is a big difference in counting on Randy Wells as your sixth starter than a Doug Davis. Travis Wood has struggled, but is just 25. There is time for him to figure things out and again the difference between him and Doug Davis is pretty clear. Casey Coleman has shown some flashes as a reliever. A fastball that struggled to reach 90 consistently as a starter was clocking at 93-94 as a reliever. Coleman might actually be a useful arm in the bullpen if one of the many gambles in the pen doesn’t work out.
Defense
The only thing worse than the Cubs pitching last season was the defense. Now defense isn’t unimportant, but the poor defense only magnified the flaws of this team. The flaws on defense didn’t create the mess that was the 2011 Cubs. However, Dale Sveum has shown an attention to detail, and much has been made about the various creative ways the staff has focused on fundamentals. Every Cubs manager has talked about fundamentals and accountability, but the keystone cops performance have been a common treat for visitors to Wrigley Field. Perhaps this time will be different. I certainly don’t recall as many different ways that we have heard about them working on fundamentals prior to this spring. The actual players on the field are pretty similar to last season. Out of the eight position players five will be returning. Soriano is what he is, which is not very good on defense, and only getting worse as his legs degrade. However, a new administration that has new need to cater to Soriano should be more willing to remove Soriano when the situation is calls for it. Byrd is a solid if unspectacular center field. DeJesus is a decent defensive OF. Fukudome was rated poorly by previous defensive metrics so DeJesus might actually be an upgrade on the field. It won’t be by much, but every little bit helps I guess.
The only player more scrutinized for his glove than Soriano was Starlin Castro. Castro made a ton of errors, but he has a cannon for an arm. He will still make some errors, but as countless examples have shown shortstops tend to get better as they age. The natural progression, combined with Sveum’s attention to detail, should help Castro cut down on those errors. Add in that Castro will make some plays that only he and a handful of other guys are capable, and we could see a significant improvement in the up the middle defense of the Cubs. Darwin Barney is a nice defensive 2B. With an improved Castro, the Cubs double play combination could be one of the better ones in the National League. Ian Stewart is the one true huge defensive upgrade the Cubs made. Aramis Ramirez has always been a bat first 3B, who at best was a below average defensive 3B. Ian Stewart brings a steady glove and better range to the position than Ramirez provided the year before. Soto is a steady defensive catcher behind the plate. The difference in defense is going to have to be made, for the most part, by the coaching staff. Sveum has already hinted at that better positioning of the defenders should occur this season than last. Hopefully this is true because the Cubs are going to need every edge they can get.
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