Castro

**Jntg4** · 08-05-2012, 10:31 PM

Slumping a lot, does he turn it back on? Poll for final BA (lol, turrible stat) to be attached.

**TheChicagoFan** · 08-05-2012, 10:35 PM

Does it matter? I'm not being a hater or anything, but does his final BA or OBP or SLG or anything really matter? The Cubs aren't winning anything and he's still pretty raw. I think he'll be really good in the future, but I think we all know that the Cubs window for winning is still a few years away. He's only going to get better, in my opinion.

**Rice Cube** · 08-05-2012, 10:37 PM

It's mostly an ego thing. I think he'll learn to be more patient as he develops the power and pitchers work around him more. Right now he's pressing too much. His OBP is barely above .300 at this point and that's more annoying to me than his batting average.

**dabynsky** · 08-05-2012, 10:45 PM

The walks have been creeping back up, and his BABIP is lower than any point in his career. If the power keeps developing the way it has been then we have a special player on our hands.

**Jntg4** · 08-05-2012, 10:52 PM

The BABIP is what I've been noticing, he hasn't been K'ing at an absurd pace or anything

**Jntg4** · 08-05-2012, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by TheChicagoFan

Does it matter? I'm not being a hater or anything, but does his final BA or OBP or SLG or anything really matter? The Cubs are winning anything and he's still pretty raw. I think he'll be really good in the future, but I think we all know that the Cubs window for winning is still a few years away. He's only going to get better, in my opinion.

Might want to rephrase to the "Cubs aren't winning anything"

**TheChicagoFan** · 08-05-2012, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by dabynsky

The walks have been creeping back up, and his BABIP is lower than any point in his career. If the power keeps developing the way it has been then we have a special player on our hands.

I think you already have that. Not saying he'll be a legend or anything, but he's a SS with some power already developed and he's only going to get better and more patient. His defense has also improved greatly.

**TheChicagoFan** · 08-05-2012, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

Might want to rephrase to the "Cubs aren't winning anything"

This is awkward...

**Jntg4** · 08-05-2012, 10:54 PM

Originally Posted by TheChicagoFan

I think you already have that. Not saying he'll be a legend or anything, but he's a SS with some power already developed and he's only going to get better and more patient. His defense has also improved greatly.

Everyone here knows that, except Capt. Serious, but a lot of dumb fans don't realize it.

**TheChicagoFan** · 08-05-2012, 10:55 PM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

Everyone here knows that, except Capt. Serious, but a lot of dumb fans don't realize it.

That's true. But whoever it was that mentioned that Castro was a better fielder than Ramirez is a little crazy. Castro has been much much better this year, but Ramirez is still one of the most underrated SS in the league.

**Uman85** · 08-05-2012, 10:58 PM

He's shown much better patience at the plate recently and the recent power increase is also encouraging. He's progressed well this year. No idea what he'll finish with in BA, but his .OBP and K/BB rate as well as his defense is a bigger concern for me. Those are the things I want to see continued improvement in.

**dabynsky** · 08-05-2012, 10:58 PM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

The BABIP is what I've been noticing, he hasn't been K'ing at an absurd pace or anything

His K rate is up this year and his BB rate is down this year, and combine that with the BABIP being about 40 points lower than the previous seasons. However, the positives are the power numbers. HIs ISO and HRs are up for the third consecutive year. Should hit 15+ at this rate, and with the increased power should come more walks as we've seen since Rowson took over.

**dabynsky** · 08-05-2012, 11:01 PM

Originally Posted by TheChicagoFan

I think you already have that. Not saying he'll be a legend or anything, but he's a SS with some power already developed and he's only going to get better and more patient. His defense has also improved greatly.

Eh some people want to argue that point because he was largely a guy that piled up lots of singles, and the value of that could be debatable. With the improving defense and power he has a chance to move into the upper echelon of SS.

**Jntg4** · 08-05-2012, 11:03 PM

Originally Posted by TheChicagoFan

That's true. But whoever it was that mentioned that Castro was a better fielder than Ramirez is a little crazy. Castro has been much much better this year, but Ramirez is still one of the most underrated SS in the league.

If you believe in UZR, then Castro's UZR/150 is 11.7, while Ramirez is 4.9, but I know a lot of people don't here.

Using same stats, Soriano and Barney lead their positions as well this year. (Soriano 5th overall, Barney 13th overall, Castro 19th overall, 3rd at position behind Ryan and Barmes).

Not using it religiously, but the argument can be made... all fielding metrics suck though.

**TheChicagoFan** · 08-05-2012, 11:06 PM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

If you believe in UZR, then Castro's UZR/150 is 11.7, while Ramirez is 4.9, but I know a lot of people don't here.

Using same stats, Soriano and Barney lead their positions as well this year. (Soriano 5th overall, Barney 13th overall, Castro 19th overall, 3rd at position behind Ryan and Barmes).

Not using it religiously, but the argument can be made... all fielding metrics suck though.

Exactly. All fielding stats are terrible and either screw one guy who is good or make a bad fielder look good.

Using the eye test isn't great because opinion has a lot to do with it and maybe that's why I think Ramirez is better, but I've seen both play and that's just what I believe. I'm willing to admit that Castro has been a TON better though. Last year was just bad.

**dabynsky** · 08-05-2012, 11:07 PM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

If you believe in UZR, then Castro's UZR/150 is 11.7, while Ramirez is 4.9, but I know a lot of people don't here.

Using same stats, Soriano and Barney lead their positions as well this year. (Soriano 5th overall, Barney 13th overall, Castro 19th overall, 3rd at position behind Ryan and Barmes).

Not using it religiously, but the argument can be made... all fielding metrics suck though.

The issue most have with UZR is that it takes a ton of data before it becomes accurate, read in multiple places that it really takes 2 seasons worth. Castro's improvement defense is there for everyone who is watching, but I really wouldn't put a ton of stock in those metrics.

**Mr. Cub** · 08-05-2012, 11:09 PM

I think we are watching his star(lin) fizzle and will now be an average to below average player from here on out. Or maybe it's his "sophmore slump" season since he didn't really have one last year. I think he will be just fine in the future, he is still very young and learning.

**Rice Cube** · 08-05-2012, 11:14 PM

I think he's just swinging at everything because he thinks he has to get a hit no matter what. If he relaxes a bit he'll probably get back to what we've been used to the past couple years.

**ZDemp34** · 08-05-2012, 11:47 PM

He'll probably settle down once we have more good hitters in the lineup.

**X-Factor** · 08-05-2012, 11:51 PM

honestly, I think Castro's accepted that, like it or not, he's "the vet" on this team going forward...and seems to have willingly sacrificed comfort level if it means giving other players their reps. He batted 5th today, and I believe they said pre-game that this is his 6th spot in the Batting Order this season...not that it's a huge deal, but a lot of players don't like sacrificing their spot in a line-up...especially if they go lower. Castro hasn't mentioned it once though, and I like that. He's not using anything as an excuse...just putting his head down and grinding.

**DewsSox79** · 08-06-2012, 12:03 AM

he is still quite raw. His ceiling is still very high, but no one knows....no one. He has age on his side and MLB experience being so young. He can go either way. He could flop, He could be the best ss in the game or just another MLB player. Lots of time to decide with him being young.

As far as Castro being better at defense than ramirez that was USC. Using UZR or UZR/150 has to be out of all the metrics the most unreliable. I talked to Dan Hayes from CSN about it on Twitter and he believes as do I and a lot of fans that MLB Scouts and the front offices are using proprietary metrics, and the stuff that we see is purely horrible. What makes USCs debate even worse is he said that ramirez couldnt play 2b for the cubs because of his 2008 UZR. hey brainiac, its 2012 and he plays SS and plays a better d than castro. Also the same guy who says de az is just a guy and is comprable to Jordan Danks.

Originally Posted by USCChiFan

Let's go player by player on the Sox's "prospects"

Gordon Beckham: Beckham has been a massive disappointment in the majors. He was supposed to be a disciplined hitter who could hit for a high average and hit for power. Carrer ISO of .134, O-Swing% of 33.5% this season after being 37% last season which is bad.

Alexei Ramirez: Already have Castro. He could move to 2nd but he was horrible defensively when he played 2nd in 2008. -5 DRS, -7 UZR, -9.3 UZR/150.

Viciedo: A power hitting OF who will always be below average defensively and doesn't walk at all and has little plate discipline. 41.2 O-Swing% and a 13.2 F-Strike% is bad.

Morel: Below average offensively,couldn't take a walk if his life depended on it, little power, but is a good defender.

De Aza: Cubs have a lot of CF prospects in the minors. No need and I doubt they'd want him either. Also like it has been stated he's 28. Not a prospect

Jones: Reliever w/ spotty control but he can throw hard and has a great curveball. Okay he's a good prospect not a great one.

Septimo: Lefty specialist

Jordan Danks: See De Aza. Danks also strikes out a lot is probably no more than a 4th outfielder.

Addison Reed: Closers are replaceable. But he's a solid reliever.

Sale: Great young pitcher.

Quintana: Back of the rotation pitcher who relies on good command to pitch effectively w/ his average stuff.

Flowers: Strikeout machine and a bad defensive catcher.

**Jntg4** · 08-06-2012, 02:23 AM

I think Castro decided to dig a hole so that he actually has to try before he finishes the season with a .357 average and 40 Hr

**Mr. Cub** · 08-06-2012, 02:30 AM

Originally Posted by Jntg4

I think Castro decided to dig a hole so that he actually has to try before he finishes the season with a .357 average and 40 Hr

I want some of whatever you are smoking.

**vick27m** · 08-06-2012, 02:48 AM

He'll be fine, probably a top 10 SS for his career as well.

**dabynsky** · 08-06-2012, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by DewsSox79

he is still quite raw. His ceiling is still very high, but no one knows....no one. He has age on his side and MLB experience being so young. He can go either way. He could flop, He could be the best ss in the game or just another MLB player. Lots of time to decide with him being young.

I agree that we don't know what his ceiling is because he might continue this slow growth of power that we've seen each year until his physical peak. This could be it in terms of power and the walks never develop. I am confused as to what you think a flop might be. The player we see is a guy that is capable of playing SS and hit at least 700 OPS. That player can play in the bigs for a long time. So I am guessing what you mean by a flop is basically what we are seeing this year. Or do you think he is suddenly not going to be able to hit at all?

I'm going to skip the debate about defense because until fieldf/x data is available to the public it is pointless. What is not debatable is that Castro has the physical tools to play SS at the big league level, and he has been flashing those tools on a regular basis since the first week of May this season.