Article: Castro's Slump Explained

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

Rice Cube said:
My opinion is that hitting coaches are there as another source of information but won't magically turn a shitty hitter into a great one. He merely finds flaws in the swing and helps fix it. But if the talent isn't there, there isn't much the hitting coach can do. The philosophy with Jaramillo seemed to be to swing at everything that was close to the strike zone, but just because something is a strike doesn't mean you can do anything with it. So it's possible Rowson has more of a patient approach with hitters where he teaches them which strikes are better to punish and which ones to lay off of. That's what players are supposed to learn as they mature.

For the most part, though, no coach or manager can turn shit into gold.

Yeah, that's kinda my take on it. But in regards to Castro and his slump, do you think maybe this guys "be patient" approach is hurting him? We all know he is a free swinger (like a lot of Dominican players are) so maybe they should just let Castro do his own kind of thing a little. I did notice on Gamecast last night Castro flew out on first pitch at least once maybe twice(And no good BABPIP there haha),so maybe he is still using his swing away mentality and is just slumping for real with no real reason behind it other than its just that, a slump.

dabynsky · Aug 8, 2012

Mr. Cub said:
Hopefully. He's been highly touted for years. But why did Jaramillo get fired? I thought he was a well regarded hit coach? And is this Rowson guy really an upgrade? And do hitting coaches really have that big of an impact on the players/team?

Rice touched on this and I did in what I wrote, but the switch wasn't about the abilties of the hitting coaches. Jaramillo might be the absolute best in the mechanics of hitting, but he is very much int he old scholl of swinging at strikes. What Brett Jackson does well is waiting for a pitch that he can drive, and that is the philosophy that Theo, Dale and Rowson have. With less than 2 strikes it is okay to take a borderline, pitcher's pitch strike. This is what the BoSox and Yankees do so well and cause games to go 4 hours long. I think Magadan might end up being the hitting coach next year or it might be Rowson, but the reason the switch was made was to get that philosophy taught consistenly from rookie ball to the major leagues. Lets not kid ourselves, Dale is the hitting coach of this team, just like Baylor was back then. The hitting coach is there to delegate the day to day responsibilities to someone else, but Sveum ultimately is the guy that is working with hitters.

To answer your finally question, the hitting coaches abilties to affect a player is probably minimal. They aren't unimportant, but no matter who was coaching this team they would suck to put runs on the board. The reason for the change was to get everyone on the same page for what this organization is going to focus on from hitters.

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

dabynsky said:
Rice touched on this and I did in what I wrote, but the switch wasn't about the abilties of the hitting coaches. Jaramillo might be the absolute best in the mechanics of hitting, but he is very much int he old scholl of swinging at strikes. What Brett Jackson does well is waiting for a pitch that he can drive, and that is the philosophy that Theo, Dale and Rowson have. With less than 2 strikes it is okay to take a borderline, pitcher's pitch strike. This is what the BoSox and Yankees do so well and cause games to go 4 hours long. I think Magadan might end up being the hitting coach next year or it might be Rowson, but the reason the switch was made was to get that philosophy taught consistenly from rookie ball to the major leagues. Lets not kid ourselves, Dale is the hitting coach of this team, just like Baylor was back then. The hitting coach is there to delegate the day to day responsibilities to someone else, but Sveum ultimately is the guy that is working with hitters.

To answer your finally question, the hitting coaches abilties to affect a player is probably minimal. They aren't unimportant, but no matter who was coaching this team they would suck to put runs on the board. The reason for the change was to get everyone on the same page for what this organization is going to focus on from hitters.

Yeah, that makes sense. It's just kind of weird that while everyone is freaking out about Castro, the team as a whole is struggling. We average like 5 hits a game. And barely any runs if any at all. And our AVG with RISP has got to be like .081. We have some talented players it's just funny how they all struggle at the same time. And LaHair.... He could be a thread on his own, but damn what happened to him? He started off tremendous and is now pretty bad.

Rice Cube · Aug 8, 2012

Mr. Cub said:
Yeah, that makes sense. It's just kind of weird that while everyone is freaking out about Castro, the team as a whole is struggling. We average like 5 hits a game. And barely any runs if any at all. And our AVG with RISP has got to be like .081. We have some talented players it's just funny how they all struggle at the same time. And LaHair.... He could be a thread on his own, but damn what happened to him? He started off tremendous and is now pretty bad.

MLB adjusted to him and he couldn't adjust back. That's part of the reason he was a minor leaguer for so long. Baseball is a cruel game.

dabynsky · Aug 8, 2012

Batting average and especially when you slice it to RISP is a pretty small part of the picture. RISP fluctuates so widely from year to year due to sample size. I can't think of a player that has ever shown the ability to hit better with RISP than his career average. Look the reason the Cubs are bad right now is because the limited amount of talent the y have has very little experience. I think we will see improvements, but ultimately what fixes the Cubs is better talent whether it comes from within, trades or free agency.

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

Rice Cube said:
MLB adjusted to him and he couldn't adjust back. That's part of the reason he was a minor leaguer for so long. Baseball is a cruel game.

That's funny to me too. How can you hit baseballs and then get figured out to where you can't hit anymore. And I guess that's the same with pitchers too. Travis Wood is a good example. I guess it makes you appreciate the players like Pujols, Cabrera, Braun and those dudes that put up numbers every year. Either they can't be figured out or they just adjust to anything.

dabynsky · Aug 8, 2012

There is a reason why Pujols, Cabrera and Braun are special players. And also a reason why most baseball players take longer to develop than other sports. It is such a cruel but beautiful game.

Jntg4 · Aug 8, 2012

I sent both articles to BN's writer hoping for a review/shout-out... didn't get one AFAIK, but he was writing his own when he got them I guess.

http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/08/08/starlin-castros-slump-bad-luck-bad-approach-or-both/

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

Castro's slump also seemed to really take off around the time Rizzo was inserted into the lineup as well. You would have that maybe having that protection behind you that he would have been alright. Could the Rizzo addition have anything to do with his struggles?

Jntg4 · Aug 8, 2012

Mr. Cub said:
Castro's slump also seemed to really take off around the time Rizzo was inserted into the lineup as well. You would have that maybe having that protection behind you that he would have been alright. Could the Rizzo addition have anything to do with his struggles?

Probably not, but maybe he has gotten used to the spotlight, which also provided more motivation whenever he was called out for something...

2SeamHeat · Aug 8, 2012

dabynsky said:
Rice touched on this and I did in what I wrote, but the switch wasn't about the abilties of the hitting coaches. Jaramillo might be the absolute best in the mechanics of hitting, but he is very much int he old scholl of swinging at strikes. What Brett Jackson does well is waiting for a pitch that he can drive, and that is the philosophy that Theo, Dale and Rowson have. With less than 2 strikes it is okay to take a borderline, pitcher's pitch strike. This is what the BoSox and Yankees do so well and cause games to go 4 hours long. I think Magadan might end up being the hitting coach next year or it might be Rowson, but the reason the switch was made was to get that philosophy taught consistenly from rookie ball to the major leagues. Lets not kid ourselves, Dale is the hitting coach of this team, just like Baylor was back then. The hitting coach is there to delegate the day to day responsibilities to someone else, but Sveum ultimately is the guy that is working with hitters.

To answer your finally question, the hitting coaches abilties to affect a player is probably minimal. They aren't unimportant, but no matter who was coaching this team they would suck to put runs on the board. The reason for the change was to get everyone on the same page for what this organization is going to focus on from hitters.

The patient approach is also why Perry was successful with his time here. We saw guys who seemed incapable of walking or taking a patient approach suddenly start taking walks and more pitches... waiting for that pitch to drive, rather than just swinging at what the pitcher offered.

As for Castro, his reduced BABiP suggests that he could be hitting into bad luck situations. I also wonder how much shifting is going on with the defense when he comes up. Sometimes it's obvious to see IF shifts even by just a few feet... but OF shifts aren't quite so obvious. Maybe other teams have figured out something, and he just hasn't adjusted to it yet. Everything else is pretty much in the same lines as he's had before. The primary difference being reduced walks and heightened Ks. However, those have somewhat cancelled each other out in terms of altering his frequency of putting balls in play. He's still hitting line drives and solid fly balls. So, I'd think that it's not necessarily Rowson's effects on his approach (as his Ks are starting to drop and BBs are starting to rise), but more the effects of defensive attributes of the other team and hitting the ball right at people more than he usually does.

2SeamHeat · Aug 8, 2012

Mr. Cub said:
That's funny to me too. How can you hit baseballs and then get figured out to where you can't hit anymore. And I guess that's the same with pitchers too. Travis Wood is a good example. I guess it makes you appreciate the players like Pujols, Cabrera, Braun and those dudes that put up numbers every year. Either they can't be figured out or they just adjust to anything.

It's not so difficult to figure out a way to pitch to a hitter that reduces the odds of him getting a hit. To go with that, you can shift your defense to heighten the odds against the hitter. That's how the league adjusts to a hitter. At that point, the hitter has to adjust to what's being set up against him. If he does not, as has been a big part of LaHair's failure over the past 2-3 months, he won't last very long.

As for a pitcher, it doesn't take much to figure out what a pitcher typically throws to certain types of hitters... or what he does in certain situations. You can create a game plan around that that is generally quite successful. You coach hitters to wait for certain pitches that you know are going to come, and you end up hitting the pitcher quite well. At that point, the pitcher and his coaches have to figure out how the league adjusted to him, then change his pitching approach in order to work around that adjustment.

As for LaHair, I also think he's been given the short end of the stick here too. He was thriving with protection behind him, as pitchers had to actually throw to him in most situations. His struggles deepened when he was taken out of the spot right in front of Soriano and moved right behind him. There was no one behind LaHair that was a threat, so there was no reason to pitch to him unless you had bases loaded. So, you pitch around him. Instead of adjusting to that and forcing pitchers into counts that would make them throw to him, he began swinging wildly at pitches he could never hit. Perhaps part of that has been pressing to keep his impact high with Rizzo's debut and excellent start, but I think he just wasn't prepared for a league to adjust to him as the MLB has.. and he doesn't know how to handle it.

DewsSox79 · Aug 8, 2012

I think the article is well written.

With that said. The debate on whether a player is good or not good is invalid when using UZR. That variable is not a variable at all since it isnt true, and is far from real when it comes to defense.

Jntg4 · Aug 8, 2012

DewsSox79 said:
I think the article is well written.

With that said. The debate on whether a player is good or not good is invalid when using UZR. That variable is not a variable at all since it isnt true, and is far from real when it comes to defense.

I know, that's why I kept it brief... just wanted to point out how his defense had obviously improved by a very large amount, so I picked a stat saber-people like to add to it. :shrug:

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

2SeamHeat said:
It's not so difficult to figure out a way to pitch to a hitter that reduces the odds of him getting a hit. To go with that, you can shift your defense to heighten the odds against the hitter. That's how the league adjusts to a hitter. At that point, the hitter has to adjust to what's being set up against him. If he does not, as has been a big part of LaHair's failure over the past 2-3 months, he won't last very long.

As for a pitcher, it doesn't take much to figure out what a pitcher typically throws to certain types of hitters... or what he does in certain situations. You can create a game plan around that that is generally quite successful. You coach hitters to wait for certain pitches that you know are going to come, and you end up hitting the pitcher quite well. At that point, the pitcher and his coaches have to figure out how the league adjusted to him, then change his pitching approach in order to work around that adjustment.

As for LaHair, I also think he's been given the short end of the stick here too. He was thriving with protection behind him, as pitchers had to actually throw to him in most situations. His struggles deepened when he was taken out of the spot right in front of Soriano and moved right behind him. There was no one behind LaHair that was a threat, so there was no reason to pitch to him unless you had bases loaded. So, you pitch around him. Instead of adjusting to that and forcing pitchers into counts that would make them throw to him, he began swinging wildly at pitches he could never hit. Perhaps part of that has been pressing to keep his impact high with Rizzo's debut and excellent start, but I think he just wasn't prepared for a league to adjust to him as the MLB has.. and he doesn't know how to handle it.

I see what you're saying. It makes pretty good sense. Maybe if Vitters gets going he can be a guy to add some protection behind LaHair. Then we could have a pretty solid middle of the order. At least for now until Theo trades off everyone.

Jntg4 · Aug 8, 2012

LaHair just sucks

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

Jntg4 said:
LaHair just sucks

Pretty much. At least he got a fluke AS appearance this year. Cool for him, but now he is pretty bad. This team doesn't even have a bright spot anymore this year, except maybe Barney's stellar D.

Jntg4 · Aug 8, 2012

Mr. Cub said:
Pretty much. At least he got a fluke AS appearance this year. Cool for him, but now he is pretty bad. This team doesn't even have a bright spot anymore this year, except maybe Barney's stellar D.

Rizzo says hi?

Mr. Cub · Aug 8, 2012

Jntg4 said:
Rizzo says hi?

Yeah, we have him but he is still having his struggles. But it's to be expected from the young guys. He should, I hope, be awesome in the coming years. He could be our white, left handed Derrek Lee.

2SeamHeat · Aug 8, 2012

Something else I find quite interesting with Castro... and I think suggest teams might be shifting the IF a bit on him.

BA Hit trajectories:
2010 LD: .738 (80 AB), 2011: .739 (115 AB), 2012: .735 (68 AB)
2010 FB: .223 (103 AB), 2011: .205 (176 AB), 2012: .252 (119 AB)
2010 GB: .271 (207 AB), 2011: .300 (287 AB), 2012: .223 (175 AB)

In 2010 he had 463 AB. LDs were 17.3%, FBs 22.2%, GBs 44.7%. In 2011 he had 674 AB. LDs were 17.1%, FBs 26.1%, GBs 42.6%. In 2012 he has had 437 AB so far (26 less than his rookie season). LDs are 15.6%, FBs are 27.2%, and GBs are 40.0%. With the majority of his balls in play going on the ground... a radical drop of 48 points from 2010 and 73 points from last year in his BA would suggest that maybe teams are shading him slightly in one way or another. When you consider his BABiP has dipped 40 points from last season, and 43 from his rookie year.. and the BA drop in his GBs form his rookie year to this year is almost the same rate... this is where his struggles are.

I watch most of the games via mlb.tv... and the views aren't really that good to catch anything short of obvious IF defensive shifts. In his career, he's hit the ball up the middle 786 (779 AB) times in 1683 PA (1574 AB). That's 46.7% of his PA (49.5% of his AB) going up the middle. With the stat-oriented coaching staffs and managers that litter most dugouts these days... I'm sure they've caught onto this well before now.

Article: Castro's Slump Explained

2016 World Series Champs!

Fringe Average Mod

2016 World Series Champs!

World Series Dreaming

Fringe Average Mod

2016 World Series Champs!

Fringe Average Mod

Fire Forum Moderator

My favorite teams

2016 World Series Champs!

Fire Forum Moderator

My favorite teams

I Know Nuffing!!!!!

I Know Nuffing!!!!!

CCS Donator

Fire Forum Moderator

My favorite teams

2016 World Series Champs!

Fire Forum Moderator

My favorite teams

2016 World Series Champs!

Fire Forum Moderator

My favorite teams

2016 World Series Champs!

I Know Nuffing!!!!!