Causation vs. Correlation

ClydeLee · Sep 18, 2013

Baltimore also happened to fire their OC during last season. I wonder if they improved, worsened, or stayed relatively the same from that transition alone.

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remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Rory,

I was referring to the drilling down on the differences between the Bears and the other teams penalties you noted. You claimed that I was suggesting the Bears players were better and I responded that no I am not because we would have to analyze the reasons for their respective penalties called such as crowd noise, etc.

Not every bad player is going to struggle with pre snap penalties because some of them still have the discipline or intelligence to not beat themselves mentally. And not every good player is going to excel with pre snap penalties because some of them might be good based on physical talent that overcomes the fact that they suck when it comes to concentration and focus.

So point out the Arizona line means nothing Rory. I did not ignore your post. You are trying to make this an either or proposition when I am saying it boils down to both the player and the coaching. There is nothing childish about that and the only thing childish is you thinking your opinion is better simply because you said it. When you can quantify to me how you can distinguish between the players own skills and intelligence affecting this vs his coach then let me know.

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Rory Sparrow said:
I don't know if Long is the most talented rookie lineman I've ever seen, but he DEFINITELY has the best hearing of any rookie lineman I've ever seen, and his memory skills are top notch as well. I went to the Bears-Bengals game, and when I yelled "Kyle!" from the stands, he turned and looked. Great hearing.

Not sure how you drew that conclusion when he has yet to really play in a hostile environment. Let's see how crowd noise affects him if for example we play in Seattle in the playoffs.

I didn't realize this was a ground breaking concept that crowd noise can result in penalties.

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

ClydeLee said:
Baltimore also happened to fire their OC during last season. I wonder if they improved, worsened, or stayed relatively the same from that transition alone.

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Well of course they got better but we are talking specifically pre snap penalties not overall offensive improvement. I think everyone argues overall the offense is better as I already said as it pertains to Cutler, I can see that argument since it is the same play and so I can compare his performance. A lot more difficult when the whole OL except Garza has been turned over and clearly some of the improvement has to be because they are better players.

remydat said:
I am not ignoring anything. You seemed to imply it is all Trestman and I am saying having good players obviously helps. I am not suggesting it is 100% down to the players. I am saying you can't ignore the fact that the players are much better and are potentially better suited for the type of offense being employed. Oregon and LA Tech both play up tempo high speed offenses that put a premium on not getting pre snap penalities. Highly possible the credit for Long and Mills goes to their college coaches as well. Bushrod is a Kromer guy and Slauson is a vet.

There is simply no real way to quantify how much of this is the result of coaching and how much of it is the result of the players since the entire line changed. Now with Cutler since it is the same guy I can see the argument that he looks to be playing better and saying that is the result of Trestman.

ClydeLee · Sep 18, 2013

remydat said:
Well of course they got better but we are talking specifically pre snap penalties not overall offensive improvement. I think everyone argues overall the offense is better as I already said as it pertains to Cutler, I can see that argument since it is the same play and so I can compare his performance. A lot more difficult when the whole OL except Garza has been turned over and clearly some of the improvement has to be because they are better players.

And that's what I'm talking about... Pre snap penalties.

Did I say a thing about overall offensive improvement?

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remydat · Sep 18, 2013

ClydeLee said:
And that's what I'm talking about... Pre snap penalties.

Did I say a thing about overall offensive improvement?

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But Caldwell had the same players. If there was any improvement in pre snap penalties while some of that may be due to just random variation, at the end of the day you are comparing the same players under different coaches.

As the bold points out, Lovie had shitty lineman and now Trestman has better lineman so trying to quantify players vs coaching is more difficult. Hence why I said in Cutler's case I can accept that argument (small sample size notwithstanding) because both Lovie and Trestman had Cutler.

ClydeLee · Sep 18, 2013

remydat said:
But Caldwell had the same players. If there was any improvement in pre snap penalties while some of that may be due to just random variation, at the end of the day you are comparing the same players under different coaches.

As the bold points out, Lovie had shitty lineman and now Trestman has better lineman so trying to quantify players vs coaching is more difficult. Hence why I said in Cutler's case I can accept that argument (small sample size notwithstanding) because both Lovie and Trestman had Cutler.

Yes, same players different coach... That's why that would be a good case study for evaluating impact. Which is the point.

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remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Rory Sparrow said:
Good point. Perhaps Kyle Long's hearing is superhuman, like Michael J Fox in Teen Wolf. When Seattle's crowd is 136 db and people are blowing dog whistles, I expect Long to continually jump offsides, because there is a great variance among rookie OLs when it comes to hearing skills. You make a good point...a normal rookie OL would be fine playing in Seattle, but because of Long's superhuman hearing, its actually a detriment on the road, which is highly unusual for a rookie OL.

So yeah, if Kyle Long false starts in a game against Seattle, the conclusion we draw is that perhaps his hearing and overall talent levels are overrated, because its unique for a rookie OL to false start in Seattle.

On a side note, when I try to judge things, instead of looking at what actually happened (Bengals and Vikings game), I instead conjure up the most extreme example I can think of (road playoff game in Seattle), and then base my judgement off of that extreme example. I've found those conclusions are usually much more accurate than those based on actual events.

You are comparing 16 games that includes games in more hostile environments to 2 games one of which was at home. And what actually happened is that the Bears improved the talent on the OL considerably making the comparison more tenuous.

Tell you what, at the end of the year, let's see how many pre snap penalties they have and compared to the rest of the league and previous years because right now 2 games is just 2 games. These guys haven't even played in Green Bay yet.

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

ClydeLee said:
Yes, same players different coach... That's why that would be a good case study for evaluating impact. Which is the point.

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Yes I agree it would be a good case study.

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Rory Sparrow said:
This is beyond Special person...you previously said...

So if the Cardinals have one of the least talented OLs in the NFL, as is proven statistically, you'd expect them to have a ton of pre snap penalties. If the Niners have one of the most talented OLs in the NFL, as is proven statistically, you'd expect them to have the fewest pre snap penalties. Yet the opposite was the case in 2012. By your logic, this discrepency is caused by SFs inability to actually draft good players, and Jim Harbaugh's terrible coaching.

Got it.

I thought I already told you that the 49ers rated great run blocking but only average pass blocking if I recall so would need to know whether their penalties were in pass or run blocking. I feel like I see more false start in pass blocker but I haven't tried to actually quantify it.

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Incidentally, the 49ers had 17 false starts to 25 by the Bears. So their pre snap penalty number is higher because of other pre snap penalties (11 delay of games, 3 illegal formation and 1 illegal motion). As we were discussing lineman I don't really consider those latter 3 pre snap penalties as the fault of the lineman. In looking at the numbers Iupati who is a ridiculous run blocker but not a great pass blocker had 4 false starts and Staley had 2 while every other starter had 1. The rest of the penalties are from backups like Leonard Davis who had 2 in just 141 snaps.

Contrast that with the Bears who had 25 in total with Carimi and Garza leading the way with 4 followed by Webb and Rachel with 3 apiece. To me the big difference here is the Niners main culprits and even Webb and Garza are getting those numbers while playing 1,000 snaps while guys like Rachel and Carimi got theres in basically half a season and a little over half a season. The only other item of note is we had 4 false starts from Davis and Spaeth combined. Again two plays gone and replaced by Bennet.

So yeah there is your answer on the Niners. They really didn't have more pre snap penalties by the OL ie false starts. Oh and didn't go into as much detail as the Cardinals but they had 18 false starts so again more than the Niners albeit not by much.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/chicago-bears?year=2012

http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/seattle-seahawks?year=2012

http://www.nflpenalties.com/team/arizona-cardinals?year=2012

remydat · Sep 18, 2013

Russel Okung just had 8 false starts this year and 6 the year before. He seems to be a bit of an outlier in being a great OL who gets a lot of false starts. Not sure I would say his false starts have anything to do with the lack of coaching. Giacomini had 4 he had an overall rating on PFF of -11.6 overall and -5.3 in pass blocking last year. In fact, Okung and Unger are great (20+ rating on PFF) but the rest of the Seatle OL has a grade of -5 or worse.

And again no one said every bad OL will get false starts or that every good lineman won't. We would need to see the data over a large enough sample size to try and form a conclusion not just try and cherry pick. So sorry you brought up the Niners, Bears, and Cardinals based on 32 pre snap penalties for the Niners when the reality was they actualy only had 17 false starts. Kind of reinforces my point that you have to actually analyze things in detail.

At the end of the dat we need more data and once again you can't simply quantify the effect of players vs coaching easily.

Bearly · Sep 18, 2013

This is the new Doc averaging thread.

JDB_219 · Sep 18, 2013

ClydeLee said:
Yes, same players different coach... That's why that would be a good case study for evaluating impact. Which is the point.

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Different players in Baltimore too. They inserted McKinley, shifted other guys around and got a hell of a lot better. I don't think saint Phil even called. McKinney when he got cut and was on the street after the lockout

ijustposthere · Sep 19, 2013

cobbland said:
Outside of Terry Shea, all of his first year coordinators had winning records.

Ron Turner 11-5 (along with a division title and 1st round bye, with a rookie QB at the helm for a majority of the games)

Mike Martz 11-5 (along with a division title and NFC Championship game appearance). IMO Martz should have stayed.

Mike Tice 10-6 (despite having a subpar o-line and offensive execution issues), but at least Jeremy Bates worked as a QB whisperer.

So, there is a good chance he would have had success with a new coordinator.

:andruw:

ijustposthere · Sep 19, 2013

remydat said:
2 of those starters are vets and one of those vets is intimately familiar with the system. Not sure why I would expect them to have pre snap penalties. Long and Mills both played in up tempo systems at Oregon and Louisiana Tech in which they are used to quick play calling. Finally, we have yet to play in a really loud environment like say the Seahwaks home.

So sure I can make some broad generalization that since they are new it must mean they should struggle with this stuff or I can look at this and see 2 vets and 2 rookies uniquely suited to playing in up tempo offenses none of whom appear to be head cases like Webb, Davis, Rachel, and Spencer were.

ijustposthere · Sep 19, 2013

remydat said:
Once again, Bushrod gets a penalty a little over once ever 3 games, Garza, once every 4 games, and Slauson once ever 8 games. If we go by snaps, Bushrod is once every 188 snaps, Garza once every 268 snaps and Slauson once every 417 snaps. The Bears are at 131 snaps this year.

What is hard to understand? Based on their historical averages, none of them should have committed a false start yet. I repeat, none of them should have committed a false start. Bushrod has 57 more snaps to go, Garza, 137 more snaps and Slauson a whopping 286 more snaps. So 3 out of 5 guys would not have committed a penalty based on their rate of committing such penalties lasy year. That is not surprising. That is the basic math of their historical performance.

As for the rookies, well we have no data to track it so again, there is no proof for none of this shit you guys are going on about.

Finally I asked for someone to explain why a new QB, system, or players affects the snap count. How does any of that affect them remembering the snap count that is said in the huddle?

This is fucking comical right here. Do you think they count the snaps and suddenly say, "gee, I'm due for a false start according to my past season averages?" LOL

remydat · Sep 19, 2013

ijustposthere said:
This is fucking comical right here. Do you think they count the snaps and suddenly say, "gee, I'm due for a false start according to my past season averages?" LOL

If a guy gets a false start once ever 3 games then the fact he hasn't received a false start after two games is not unusual. It has nothing to do with him counting when to committ one and to suggest it does is just fucking stupid. It's basic fucking math. Bushrod, Slauson, and Garza are not outside their career norms when it comes to getting a penalty so it is too early to make any inferences that it is because of Trestman.

Of course, I assume you aren't a fucking idiot and already know this but just want to pretend for shits and giggles so carry on.

ijustposthere · Sep 19, 2013

remydat said:
If a guy gets a false start once ever 3 games then the fact he hasn't received a false start after two games is not unusual. It has nothing to do with him counting when to committ one and to suggest it does is just fucking stupid. It's basic fucking math. Bushrod, Slauson, and Garza are not outside their career norms when it comes to getting a penalty so it is too early to make any inferences that it is because of Trestman.

Of course, I assume you aren't a fucking idiot and already know this but just want to pretend for shits and giggles so carry on.

LOL, no shit, so why suggest it does? If Bushrod gets a false start after 189 snaps are we going to throw some kind of party because he's improving? Can we credit Trestman? You and Rodney just completely slay me.

remydat · Sep 19, 2013

ijustposthere said:
LOL, no shit, so why suggest it does? If Bushrod gets a false start after 189 snaps are we going to throw some kind of party because he's improving? Can we credit Trestman? You and Rodney just completely slay me.

Why would I credit Trestman for the lack of Bushrod false starts if at the end of the year he gets roughly the same number he has typically received in his career? Same for Garza and Slauson. If at the end of the year they end up with less then fair point. Right now, it's just trying to give Trestman credit for everything.

Are we going to credit Trestman with the Sun rising in the east as well (that's hyperbole)? There are enough things that you can see a tangible effect of Trestman that we don't have to give him credit for every fucking thing as if Bushrod, Slauson, and Garza would be tripping all over themselves getting false starts without him.

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