Monsieur Tirets
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There is always an element of luck involved. I am sure Sam Bradford looked like a no miss QB. Sanchez looked to be the man in New York. San Diego got rid of Brees to get Rivers. Ponder was supposed to be the savior in Minnesota. Brett Favre was looking to be a career backup until he was traded to Green Bay. I highly suspect that if Favre hadn't retired that Rodgers wouldn't have even stayed in Green Bay (he was in a contract year when Favre retired). The simple fact is that more high QB drafts bust out rather than work out. It is always a crapshoot and for every Manning, Rodgers or Luck you have the Bradfords, the Alex Smiths (a solid QB but not a 1st overall pick talent), Tim Couches and Ryan Leafs.
An element of luck playing into something is not the same as it simply coming down to lucking out.