Morten Jensen wrote:
Derrick Rose, with another 4 off-seasons under his belt and quite possibly a better coach who emphasize defense as well as offense;
How good and why? Analysis will be deeply appreciated.
This post is inspired by Doug's latest Bulls Beat, which gave us an optimistic view of Derrick.
Derrick Rose in four years will be a faster, but less physical version of Dwyane Wade. I don't know if he'll be as good as Dwyane at his peak, but he'll get into the lane at will and score on guys. He'll have a great mid range game, but still not be much of a 3 point shooter, and he'll live at the free throw line.
I expect him to become a good defender in his 3rd or 4th season (I think he'll still struggle next year). I expect him to start getting the calls next season, and by the third season I expect 7+ attempts per game from the FT line.
He's already shown he can shoot for a high FG%, but I expect that his mid range jumper will improve and the extra calls that are presently misses, will raise his FG% over 50%.
He'll push the ball hard off the break every time and give you that really fast action like Jason Kidd does on the break by always pushing the action (though I don't think he'll be a Jason Kidd type point guard vision guy on the break).
His passing skills should become more refined as he figures out how to take advantage of what the defense gives him and improves at throwing lobs. Despite what whomever said when he threw the lob to Tyrus in the Heat game, Rose did not throw lobs much at Memphis at all, in fact he hardly ever threw them, I'm struggling to remember more than one lob pass he completed there especially in the half court.
I also expect that as he adjusts to the rigors of the NBA, you'll see him use a lot more energy on defense and the glass resulting in better board numbers and more steals.
I expect in 4 years Rose will average something like:
38 minutes per game
23 points per game
7.5 assists per game
4.5 rebounds per game
2.5 turnovers per game