Fast forward 5 years

Morten Jensen

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Derrick Rose, with another 4 off-seasons under his belt and quite possibly a better coach who emphasize defense as well as offense;

How good and why? Analysis will be deeply appreciated.

This post is inspired by Doug's latest Bulls Beat, which gave us an optimistic view of Derrick.
 

dougthonus

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Morten Jensen wrote:
Derrick Rose, with another 4 off-seasons under his belt and quite possibly a better coach who emphasize defense as well as offense;

How good and why? Analysis will be deeply appreciated.

This post is inspired by Doug's latest Bulls Beat, which gave us an optimistic view of Derrick.

Derrick Rose in four years will be a faster, but less physical version of Dwyane Wade. I don't know if he'll be as good as Dwyane at his peak, but he'll get into the lane at will and score on guys. He'll have a great mid range game, but still not be much of a 3 point shooter, and he'll live at the free throw line.

I expect him to become a good defender in his 3rd or 4th season (I think he'll still struggle next year). I expect him to start getting the calls next season, and by the third season I expect 7+ attempts per game from the FT line.

He's already shown he can shoot for a high FG%, but I expect that his mid range jumper will improve and the extra calls that are presently misses, will raise his FG% over 50%.

He'll push the ball hard off the break every time and give you that really fast action like Jason Kidd does on the break by always pushing the action (though I don't think he'll be a Jason Kidd type point guard vision guy on the break).

His passing skills should become more refined as he figures out how to take advantage of what the defense gives him and improves at throwing lobs. Despite what whomever said when he threw the lob to Tyrus in the Heat game, Rose did not throw lobs much at Memphis at all, in fact he hardly ever threw them, I'm struggling to remember more than one lob pass he completed there especially in the half court.

I also expect that as he adjusts to the rigors of the NBA, you'll see him use a lot more energy on defense and the glass resulting in better board numbers and more steals.

I expect in 4 years Rose will average something like:
38 minutes per game
23 points per game
7.5 assists per game
4.5 rebounds per game
2.5 turnovers per game
 

sdeezy

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I see Tony Parker on steroids. The best scoring PG in the league. A 23-25ppg/7-8 apg/ 4-5 rpg guy. He is already the most physically gifted player at his position, he is extremely hard to stay in front off and his jumpshot is already better than most of us expected. His playmaking ability seems to have improved over the course of the season and he's getting guys easy baskets.

His defense is a worry right now but from all indications, he has very good head on his shoulders and i'm sure he will work hard on his weaknesses during offseasons. If he's surrounded by the right personnel and put in the right offensive scheme (a transition based one), we could see a 20pt scorer early as next year. Getting that elite big man is key though.
 

Ralphb07

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dougthonus wrote:
Morten Jensen wrote:
Derrick Rose, with another 4 off-seasons under his belt and quite possibly a better coach who emphasize defense as well as offense;

How good and why? Analysis will be deeply appreciated.

This post is inspired by Doug's latest Bulls Beat, which gave us an optimistic view of Derrick.

Derrick Rose in four years will be a faster, but less physical version of Dwyane Wade. I don't know if he'll be as good as Dwyane at his peak, but he'll get into the lane at will and score on guys. He'll have a great mid range game, but still not be much of a 3 point shooter, and he'll live at the free throw line.

I expect him to become a good defender in his 3rd or 4th season (I think he'll still struggle next year). I expect him to start getting the calls next season, and by the third season I expect 7+ attempts per game from the FT line.

He's already shown he can shoot for a high FG%, but I expect that his mid range jumper will improve and the extra calls that are presently misses, will raise his FG% over 50%.

He'll push the ball hard off the break every time and give you that really fast action like Jason Kidd does on the break by always pushing the action (though I don't think he'll be a Jason Kidd type point guard vision guy on the break).

His passing skills should become more refined as he figures out how to take advantage of what the defense gives him and improves at throwing lobs. Despite what whomever said when he threw the lob to Tyrus in the Heat game, Rose did not throw lobs much at Memphis at all, in fact he hardly ever threw them, I'm struggling to remember more than one lob pass he completed there especially in the half court.

I also expect that as he adjusts to the rigors of the NBA, you'll see him use a lot more energy on defense and the glass resulting in better board numbers and more steals.

I expect in 4 years Rose will average something like:
38 minutes per game
23 points per game
7.5 assists per game
4.5 rebounds per game
2.5 turnovers per game

Wow Doug you switch boards and write something positive about Rose:woohoo: only kidding
 

jgonboricua

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i think you are underrating his assits alil bit...he may not be a Cp/Dwill guy and average 11-12 assits per game but with our fast pace and his increase in learning the game more i would atleast think he could average 23 and 9...
 

dougthonus

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jgonboricua wrote:
i think you are underrating his assits alil bit...he may not be a Cp/Dwill guy and average 11-12 assits per game but with our fast pace and his increase in learning the game more i would atleast think he could average 23 and 9...

If he plays in a fast paced system then he could average 9 or 10.

I don't really care about raw numbers either, I just threw them out there. What will matter is how efficient he is and how efficient he makes others. I think he'll be extremely efficient on his own in five years, and I think he'll be very good, but not elite at helping others become more efficient.

More or less, I think he'll be an A+ scorer and a B+ passer.
 

DASMACKDOWN

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I am the type thats says your first impression is something that is hard to break unless you come out right away the next year and change it for most of the season.

An example, when Rose came in, people said he was a bad shooter. But Rose came out of the gates killing his jumper and people really backed off that claim. Even if he goes in dry spells, he now gets the respect that he has a jumper and people wont think the other way around.

But right now, Rose has shown that he is bad on defense. This is something that will be hard for him from a Bulls fans perspective unless he just is a defensive animal next year.

For instance in Ben Gordon's case, he will probably always known as a bad defender. Even though since his rookie year, he has been an average defender. ie not great, not bad either, but is always called bad.

And in the NBA no matter how good you are defensively, you can and will still get burnt.

So what happens is, the moment that person gets burnt, people will revert back to saying, see he is bad defensively.

I do think however, Rose will be treated differently that Gordon was.

Gordon is always looked at as being undersized and more one dimensional whereas Rose is considered elite everything for his position. I think even a slight improvement from Rose defensively would go a long way in most peoples eyes.
 

Ralphb07

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I don't see Rose as a 10-11 assist guy. I see him more at 7-9 but scoring more. I agree with Doug that Rose will be a 23 point scorer and I see it being 22 @ the low and 25 being his high.
 

dougthonus

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DASMACKDOWN wrote:
I am the type thats says your first impression is something that is hard to break unless you come out right away the next year and change it for most of the season.

An example, when Rose came in, people said he was a bad shooter. But Rose came out of the gates killing his jumper and people really backed off that claim. Even if he goes in dry spells, he now gets the respect that he has a jumper and people wont think the other way around.

But right now, Rose has shown that he is bad on defense. This is something that will be hard for him from a Bulls fans perspective unless he just is a defensive animal next year.

For instance in Ben Gordon's case, he will probably always known as a bad defender. Even though since his rookie year, he has been an average defender. ie not great, not bad either, but is always called bad.

And in the NBA no matter how good you are defensively, you can and will still get burnt.

So what happens is, the moment that person gets burnt, people will revert back to saying, see he is bad defensively.

I do think however, Rose will be treated differently that Gordon was.

Gordon is always looked at as being undersized and more one dimensional whereas Rose is considered elite everything for his position. I think even a slight improvement from Rose defensively would go a long way in most peoples eyes.

I think you are dead on with your perception vs reality discussion.

Perception has never been too important to me except to the extent you believe officials change calls based on it. I think Rose will become a very good defender in time. You never know because he's lacking in both fundamentals and awareness, but guys who are that athletic will usually get it eventually if they want to. I think Rose will want to.
 

cool007

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Doug, I agree with the most of what you said except the stats.

In his 4th year, I see Rose putting up 22+ppg 8apg 4rpg 50%+ fg 33%3pt.

in 5 years, I see him as considered BEST PG in the East and 2nd best PG in the league.

I see his averages to be: 24ppg 9apg 4.5rpg 53%fg 36%3pt 1.5spg and will be mentioned a lot in the MVP candidates talk.

We can save this thread and come back in 5 years. I would love to say "Told you so".
 

cool007

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Edit:

If not, then I will be happy to eat crow and eat my words. But I can pretty much guarantee this as long as D-Rose is healthy.
 

dougthonus

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cool007 wrote:
Doug, I agree with the most of what you said except the stats.

In his 4th year, I see Rose putting up 22+ppg 8apg 4rpg 50%+ fg 33%3pt.

in 5 years, I see him as considered BEST PG in the East and 2nd best PG in the league.

I see his averages to be: 24ppg 9apg 4.5rpg 53%fg 36%3pt 1.5spg and will be mentioned a lot in the MVP candidates talk.

We can save this thread and come back in 5 years. I would love to say "Told you so".

I don't think the gap is so big between what you said and I said that I'd be thinking "Told you so" either way. I agree that he can be an MVP candidate in 5 years. The actual stat line isn't that important to me and will be influenced tremendously by the pace the team sets and the head coach it has.

He could have a difference of 2-3 points per game 1 assist per game and 1 rebound a game entirely due to pace while playing at the exact same efficiencies per minute. It wouldn't make one stat line better or worse than the other. It'd just make one look better than the other.
 

HeavyC

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So after 5 seasons, how many all star teams has he made?

I'll set the over/under at 2 and a half. Discuss.
 

dougthonus

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Over.

I guess the max is 4. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make at least 3.
 

HeavyC

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I'd like to say he's a lock to make it next season, but with Iverson still being voted in, I don't put a lot of faith in the whole process.
 

cool007

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As far as all-star, I say 1 as a reserve 2 as a starter.

I think he will make the all-star team next year as a reserve (unless Arenas goes off big time next year and Devin Harris and somebody else plays much better and their team is better than ours).

If he makes it as a reserve and have a better season and better playoffs, he might just be popular enough to make the starting lineup in the all-star game. *(we have a game in Europe and they will know who this player is - so voting will help).
 

Dpauley23

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I think next he make it and in 2 years overtake A.I. as the starter
 

sdeezy

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Now that i think about it, it might take a while before he makes it.Looking at his competition

D. Harris
Mo Williams
D.Wade
Ray Allen
Joe Johnson
Gilbert Arenas
Allen Iverson
Jameer Nelson
Vince Carter

Most of these guys will probably be on better teams than we will be, the other guys are either a mainstay in the All Star game or have popularity on their side. Unless he truly explodes, we might not see him in there for the next couple of years
 

Dpauley23

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6 guards usually make it though so he only has to beat out 4 guys which he could easily overtake Mo Williams, Allen, Arenas and Carter
 

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