Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 7th Seed.

cool007

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Current Seeding:

Team Seed Record Game-Behind
Philadelphia 6th 37-35 22.5
Detroit 7th 36-37 24.0
Chicago 8th 36-39 25.0
Charlotte 9th 33-40 27.0



Games to watch Tonight:

Detroit @ Cleveland

Atlanta @ Philly (although I don't think we can catch Philly/Miami)

Lakers @ Charlotte (Big game. Hopefully Lakers come to play tonight)

Chicago @ Indiana (Big game. Hopefully Bulls come to play tonight)
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

It would require an enormous collapse for the Bulls to miss the playoffs right now. Even though we don't own the tiebreaker, our schedule relative to Charlotte's is a cake walk. If they win 2 more games than us the rest of the way that would mean they were either playing incredible, or we completely tanked.

7th may be determined largely on whether we beat Detroit in Detroit. That game will determine the tiebreaker as well as one game in the standings, so it's effectively a two game swing vs that team based on the winner.

The game we have remaining against Philly is a must win if we have any hope at all of getting to the 6th seed. Even with a win there our hopes are fairly dim as Philly will hold the tiebreaker against us most likely.

Our one chance at the 6th seed will be if Philly, Detroit, and Chicago all finish up tied and we win the final game against Detroit and the final game against Philly. In that scenario the tie breaker is handled by record amongst the top three teams rather than conference record or division record.

In which case, we'd win the three way tie breaker even though we'd lose the tiebreaker to Philly individually, we'd beat them in the threeway. However, I don't think there's any real upside to be the 6th seed vs the 8th seed, so I'm not too worried. As long as we don't fall behind Charlotte then I'm not going to complain one way or the other.

Especially the gap between 6 and 7 is non existent. You don't even know which team you're going to play in either case, and if you prefer one of them then 7 may be better than 6 or vice versa anyway.
 

ryguy24

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Yeah, i'd say Philly is pretty much out of the question. While it's fun to root for certain scenarios to play out, i'll just be happy with making it whether it's 7th or 8th. I still prefer Orlando if I have a choice though.
 

collisrost

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

I think the Bulls are obviously locked into 8th or 7th. There's less than a 1.7% chance of moving into 6th and there's just as little chance of Charlotte going on an amazing run. My money's on 7th just because of the schedule.
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

I'd give us a slightly better than 1.7% chance based purely on the three way tie possibility, but yeah, it's pretty dim.

In some respects, I think having the 8th spot and getting the 15th pick is more valuable than the 6th spot and the 17th pick though. If you prefer Orlando then they are percentage points ahead of Boston, so I think it's highly likely that:

Orlando + pick 16 is better than Boston + pick 17.

I still think we have as good a chance against Cleveland as Orlando / Boston. The only way one of those teams becomes preferable to me is if they have a major injury.
 

cool007

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

dougthonus wrote:
I'd give us a slightly better than 1.7% chance based purely on the three way tie possibility, but yeah, it's pretty dim.

In some respects, I think having the 8th spot and getting the 15th pick is more valuable than the 6th spot and the 17th pick though. If you prefer Orlando then they are percentage points ahead of Boston, so I think it's highly likely that:

Orlando + pick 16 is better than Boston + pick 17.

I still think we have as good a chance against Cleveland as Orlando / Boston. The only way one of those teams becomes preferable to me is if they have a major injury.

I think with that 1.7% chance he wanted to point out how 1.7% chance can not be ignored as we won the 1st pick in Rose?
 

cool007

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

dougthonus wrote:
I'd give us a slightly better than 1.7% chance based purely on the three way tie possibility, but yeah, it's pretty dim.

In some respects, I think having the 8th spot and getting the 15th pick is more valuable than the 6th spot and the 17th pick though. If you prefer Orlando then they are percentage points ahead of Boston, so I think it's highly likely that:

Orlando + pick 16 is better than Boston + pick 17.

I still think we have as good a chance against Cleveland as Orlando / Boston. The only way one of those teams becomes preferable to me is if they have a major injury.

Agree but what if Boston moves up and Orlando moves down???

Orlando + 17th pick + chance at winning 2 or more games >>>>>> Boston + 16th pick + sweep or winning barely 1 game.
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

I think with that 1.7% chance he wanted to point out how 1.7% chance can not be ignored as we won the 1st pick in Rose?

I know.

I was just saying it's not THAT big a long shot. Rose was a miracle forcing me to reevaluate my religious thinkings.
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Agree but what if Boston moves up and Orlando moves down???

Orlando + 17th pick + chance at winning 2 or more games >>>>>> Boston + 16th pick + sweep or winning barely 1 game.

But what if that doesn't happen? I guess my point is it's hard to get too amped up to win the 6th seed given that:
1) It's a longshot.
2) It might end up being significantly worse than the 7th seed anyway.

Personally, I think we have no chance to win 2 games against Orlando. At least, no more chance than we do to win 2 against Boston or Cleveland.
 

cool007

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

dougthonus wrote:
I think with that 1.7% chance he wanted to point out how 1.7% chance can not be ignored as we won the 1st pick in Rose?

I know.

I was just saying it's not THAT big a long shot. Rose was a miracle forcing me to reevaluate my religious thinkings.

:laugh:

I call it a God-Send.
 

cool007

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Tonight's Games to watch:

Detroit @ New Jersey

Charlotte @ Boston


Hoping for both Nets and Celtics to win tonight. :pray:
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Amazing that so far the Charlotte blogger called the Bulls loss to Indy and the Bobcats win over the Lakers.
 

Dpauley23

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

He also called us to lose to Nets
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Dpauley23 wrote:
He also called us to lose to Nets

We'll hope he's wrong ;)

I don't think the guy is omniscient or anything. I just thought calling a Bobcats win over the Lakers was crazy regardless of how they had faired over their last 6 games. They only play twice a year, and the last 3 games were the only ones the Lakers would have had a good team for.
 

Dpauley23

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Well it seems like the Bobcats have given them problems. I remember they beat the Lakers at the Staples Center when they had Bynum too
 

cool007

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Yes. Bobcats is one of those pesky teams that a lot of teams don't get up for and they caught him off guard and beat them.

All the games against Celtics have been really close as well and I bobcats did beat Celtics 1 or 2 times already this season I believe.

I hope Celtics and Heat put Bobcats away for good. ;)
 

Jamfan

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Charlotte 33, Boston 28 2nd

Detroit 23, New Jersey 32 2nd
 

Dpauley23

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

I will be pissed if the Bobcats win over the Celtics
 

Jamfan

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

Bobcats up 6 with 4:00 left. If they win this then we're in trouble.
 

dougthonus

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Re:Official Playoff Watch Thread. Bulls: 8th Seed.

DerrickRose1 wrote:
Bobcats up 6 with 4:00 left. If they win this then we're in trouble.

Ray Allen just hit a 3 with 2 seconds left to give the Celtics a 2 point lead in double OT. Looks promising.

Detroit lost today, also good.
 

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