The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

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dabynsky

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CSF77

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CHICAGO -- The Cubs are counting on impact players coming up through their Minor League system, but that doesn't mean president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer won't be shopping for free agents for the 2014 season. They'll just do so very carefully.

"I don't think we're going to get to where we need to be through free agency for the short term, honestly," Epstein said. "Given the needs that we have and where we are, and the likely price tags on the market, I don't think we'll have the ability to add multiple impact pieces in free agency.

"We're going to have to take a multi-dimensional approach to changing things," Epstein said. "We won't solve our problems through free agency. It's a very viable and sometimes attractive way to add talent and to be a great organization you have to do it from time to time. Given our situation on a lot of fronts, it's not the cure for our ills."

What would make Cubs fans feel better after three straight 90-loss seasons is to have shortstop and No. 1 prospect (No. 9 overall) Javier Baez, third baseman Kris Bryant (No. 4/35) and outfielders Albert Almora (No. 2/21) and Jorge Soler (No. 3/25) in the lineup on Opening Day March 31 against the Pirates. That's not likely to happen. The Cubs' core four are getting close, and their pending arrival will influence what Epstein and Hoyer, the general manager, do this offseason in terms of player acquisitions.

For example, the Cubs need a third baseman, but don't want to commit to a long-term contract on a free agent with Bryant on the fast track. Mike Olt, acquired from the Rangers in the Matt Garza deal last July, may be Chicago's starter at third on Opening Day.

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series, and the list of 2013 Cubs who will be on the market include pitchers Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier and Kevin Gregg, and catcher Dioner Navarro. Baker, 32, spent all of the 2013 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but when he signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Cubs last November, the team held a news conference at Wrigley Field and made it clear the right-hander was the type of pitcher they'd like to have in the rotation.

Guerrier, 35, was acquired from the Dodgers in the Carlos Marmol deal, and the right-hander's season ended Aug. 8 after 15 games with Chicago due to right elbow soreness. He could sign a Minor League deal and compete for a spot in the bullpen.

Gregg, 35, saved the Cubs, who were scrambling to find a closer when Marmol struggled and Kyuji Fujikawa was injured. Gregg posted his third season of at least 30 saves, yet the year ended on an ugly note after some miscommunication about the right-hander's role and the Cubs' desire to look at Pedro Strop in the closer role.

Navarro, 29, was probably the only backup catcher to hit fourth in a Major League lineup. He batted .300 with a career-high 13 home runs, and filled the No. 4 spot in the batting order after Alfonso Soriano was traded to the Yankees. Navarro accepted his role, but may try to lobby for more playing time. The Cubs are commited to Welington Castillo as their regular catcher.

Using Navarro in the cleanup spot also revealed one of the issues the Cubs need to address this offseason, and that's finding more offense. They ranked 13th in the National League in batting average and were last with runners in scoring position.

Epstein and Hoyer appear likely to take the same approach they have the last two years in which the emphasis has been on acquiring players who can be flipped for prospects.

The Cubs got a head start in early October by signing potential free agent outfielder Ryan Sweeney to a two-year, $3.5 million contract. There's still a long check list of things to do, including hiring a manager. Dale Sveum was dismissed after two seasons, and Epstein said one of the strengths of the next manager has to be the ability to develop young players. As Epstein said when Sveum was dismissed, "the Cubs are coming fast and the Cubs are coming strong. That's the reality."

Contract issues

Free agents: RHP Scott Baker, RHP Matt Guerrier, RHP Kevin Gregg, C Dioner Navarro.

Eligible for arbitration: RHP Jeff Samardzija, OF Nate Schierholtz, RHP Daniel Bard, LHP James Russell, IF Luis Valbuena, 2B Darwin Barney, LHP Travis Wood, RHP Pedro Strop, IF Donnie Murphy.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Daniel Bard.

Club options: None.

Mutual options: None.

Areas of Need

Starting pitching: Wood, Samardzija and Edwin Jackson give the Cubs a good starting trio, but there are holes to fill. Is lefty Chris Rusin ready? Can Jake Arrieta consistently command his pitches? Or do the Cubs simply want to sign some free agents and then deal them at the Trade Deadline for prospects, which they've done the past two seasons? The Cubs could bring back Baker, who missed all of 2013 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Carlos Villanueva was a valuable swingman, and may be stretched out to start, as well.

Third base: In 2012, Cubs third basemen combined for 12 home runs and 55 RBIs. In 2013, they totaled 30 home runs, second most in the National League among third basemen, and 70 RBIs. but also batted .221, worst in the NL. Valbuena got the most at-bats among the six players who took their turns at third, and led the field with 12 home runs. He also batted .218. With No. 1 Draft pick Bryant moving up fast, the Cubs don't want to commit to anyone on a long-term deal. The Cubs may have an in-house option for Opening Day in Olt, who has overcome vision problems.

Second base: Barney, who won a Gold Glove Award in 2012, had another solid year defensively, but wasn't able to contribute much at the plate, batting a career-low .208. Barney is arbitration-eligible, and there's a chance he is non-tendered. The Cubs could shift Valbuena to second or go young with rookie Logan Watkins, who compiled a .365 on-base percentage in the Minors.

Bullpen: With Gregg a free agent and Fujikawa not expected to be ready after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, the Cubs need a closer. Strop is one possibility. They also are in the market for another lefty, especially after James Russell's second-half struggles (2.78 ERA in 35 2/3 innings pre All-Star break; 5.29 ERA in 17 innings post).

Outfield: If the next Cubs manager platoons as Sveum did, then he'll need at least one right-handed hitting outfielder to share right field with Nate Schierholtz. David DeJesus epitomized what the Cubs want in terms of his approach at the plate, and would be welcomed back, and not just for what he did on the field, but his veteran presence in the clubhouse.

2014 payroll

This summer, the Cubs did get approval from the city for a proposed $500 million renovation plan at Wrigley Field. However, the work has not begun because the team is waiting for assurances from rooftop owners that they will not pursue legal action. The payroll is not expected to increase until the changes proposed for the ballpark -- which include a video scoreboard -- begin to generate revenue. There's also a new TV deal on the horizon. That means the Cubs won't be bidding for high-priced free agents like Robinson Cano this offseason. The Cubs have committed nearly $50 million in payroll for 2014, and that includes $14 million they are paying to the Yankees as part of Alfonso Soriano's contract. If they tender contracts to the nine arbitration-eligible players, that could be another $21.5 million. The 2013 payroll was nearly $107 million.
 

CSF77

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Carrie put up 2 things that I could see happening. 1 Olt at 3B 2. Resigning Dejesus to lead off again for less than his 6.5 mil option.

I believe if they are going to make an investment it will be in the rotation.

Something like:
Dejesus CF
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Olt 3B
Sweeney RF
Lake LF
Watkins or Valbuena 2B
Castillo C

It would free up Schierholtz for trade and free up the Cubs from platoons.
 

chibears55

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looks like the cubs have made 3 player moves so far this off season...

1. Claimed INF Mat Gamel off waivers from Milwaukee

2. Agreed to terms with OF Ryan Sweeney a two-year contract

3. Outfielder Aaron Cunningham has agreed to a minor league deal with the Cubs
 

daddies3angels

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looks like the cubs have made 3 player moves so far this off season...

1. Claimed INF Mat Gamel off waivers from Milwaukee

2. Agreed to terms with OF Ryan Sweeney a two-year contract

3. Outfielder Aaron Cunningham has agreed to a minor league deal with the Cubs

all those make you want to :cum: dont they?
 

Flacco4Prez

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Yankees said they will not lose out on Tanaka. Not encouraging
 

waldo7239117

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I thought the Yankees wanna to shed payroll, but it sure doesn't look that way. That's prolly how they kept Girardi in New York.
 

daddies3angels

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I thought the Yankees wanna to shed payroll, but it sure doesn't look that way. That's prolly how they kept Girardi in New York.

They just want to stay under 189 mil to reset Tax %. They have only around 100 mil locked up in payroll and if A-rod gets suspended thats another 25 mil. So they can go nuts in FA and keep under the 189 mil easy. Plus the IFA bid dont count against cap. So they can sign him to 6-66 mil then thats only 11 mil on paryoll. Alot of reports they plan on spending 300-400 mil this offseason. They will just keep under the 189 for 1 yr. They doing what BIG Market suppose to do.
 

patg006

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I thought the Yankees wanna to shed payroll, but it sure doesn't look that way. That's prolly how they kept Girardi in New York.

Right now, before Arbitration they are at 84 million with all the FA hitting the market. And still may find a way to dump Vernon Wells and his 18 mil.

And if the MLB gives them a 'get out of jail free' card on ARod's salary--oh shit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dHlNa3NEdk5laU5raUVXX0FSQ2ZQV0E&output=html

There is a lot the yankees can do this offseason. Tanaka looks like a good bet as they pay the exorbitant posting fee then pennies of a 5 year deal. So does resigning Bobi Cano, and adding another premier FA outfielder, catcher, and lower starting pitcher. On 100 mil? They can do it.
 

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Mooney ‏@CSNMooney 35m

Boras skeptical of Cubs plan: "Their general managers tell us that their budget only allows them to do certain things.”
 

beckdawg

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Apparently Rick Porcello is available along with Scherzer. I think he is a very interesting pitcher. If you look at the standard numbers he doesn't appear all that special. He's got a 61-50 career record with a 4.51 career ERA. However, he'll only be 25 next year and his xFIP last season was 3.19. His k/9 went up from his 5.45 career mark to 7.22 last year. He very well could be coming into his prime years. Now I'm not sure he's a #1 but it appears he could very well be a #2/3 type and his age range fits the time frame of the younger guys.

The question then becomes cost. I can't say for certain, but something revolving around Vogelbach would make some sense. Most of their positional prospects are in the OF and they don't appear to have a 1B guy in their top 20 unless there's some OF who could play 1B and he's a guy that would fit in the time frame when Prince/Miggy would start to decline some. There's also the DH option which would be available in the AL. Maybe I'm giving Porcello too little value in a trade but honestly I've not heard a ton of hype around him.

At the very least he's the type of guy I'd hope the FO would take a look at.
 

CSF77

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Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs
By Tim Dierkes [October 1, 2013 at 3:00pm CST]
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Cubs are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Jeff Samardzija (4.028): $4.9MM
Nate Schierholtz (5.078): $3.8MM
Travis Wood (3.004): $3.6MM
Darwin Barney (3.053): $2.1MM
Daniel Bard (3.079): $1.8625MM
James Russell (4.000): $1.7MM
Luis Valbuena (3.148): $1.5MM
Pedro Strop (2.156, Super Two): $1MM
Donnie Murphy (4.043): $1MM
Darnell McDonald (3.130): $700K
Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency. Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare. Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory. If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.

Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two. Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.

We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare. The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut. Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.

Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year. However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season. A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup. The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter. McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.
 

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Apparently Rick Porcello is available along with Scherzer. I think he is a very interesting pitcher. If you look at the standard numbers he doesn't appear all that special. He's got a 61-50 career record with a 4.51 career ERA. However, he'll only be 25 next year and his xFIP last season was 3.19. His k/9 went up from his 5.45 career mark to 7.22 last year. He very well could be coming into his prime years. Now I'm not sure he's a #1 but it appears he could very well be a #2/3 type and his age range fits the time frame of the younger guys.

The question then becomes cost. I can't say for certain, but something revolving around Vogelbach would make some sense. Most of their positional prospects are in the OF and they don't appear to have a 1B guy in their top 20 unless there's some OF who could play 1B and he's a guy that would fit in the time frame when Prince/Miggy would start to decline some. There's also the DH option which would be available in the AL. Maybe I'm giving Porcello too little value in a trade but honestly I've not heard a ton of hype around him.

At the very least he's the type of guy I'd hope the FO would take a look at.

The Tigers have no need for Vogs w fielder and Cabrera

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Boobaby1

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The Tigers have no need for Vogs w fielder and Cabrera

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Cabrera is only on contract for two more years with the Tigers. To say that he is going to re-sign with them and not explore the free agent market is just guessing.

Detroit is going to have to look past Cabrera because there are no guarantees of keeping him. I am not saying that Chunk is a fit in Detroit, but you better believe that Detroit has to start also thinking longer than just a two year window with Cabrera or not.

Detroit is a classic team that needs to start thinking a little younger. They are turning into the Phillies and Yankees, minus the WS victory, and that window of opportunity is closing fast.
 

brett05

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Cabrera is only on contract for two more years with the Tigers. To say that he is going to re-sign with them and not explore the free agent market is just guessing.

Detroit is going to have to look past Cabrera because there are no guarantees of keeping him. I am not saying that Chunk is a fit in Detroit, but you better believe that Detroit has to start also thinking longer than just a two year window with Cabrera or not.

Detroit is a classic team that needs to start thinking a little younger. They are turning into the Phillies and Yankees, minus the WS victory, and that window of opportunity is closing fast.

Short of a WS win no team has been more dominant the past 3 years imo. Its wishful thinking at this point that Miggy becomes available. And whose to say Detroit doesn't have internal options?

They've shown over and over a willingness to spend. I think Cub fans need to look elsewhere in fleecing a team with sub star prospects.

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patg006

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Cubs sign Eli Whiteside and Walter Ibarra!

:fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap:
 
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