optimus prime
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f there were a particularly bold-yet-rational NFL team out there, it might very well be smart to use the first week of free agency as a mandatory vacation. The first day of free agency often produces a dizzying number of terrible contracts, and with the extra $10 million unexpectedly handed out by the league just before the market opened, this year looks like no exception. There’s still enough money being thrown around for the remainder of the first week to fill up anybody’s fair share of subprime deals; arguably the most-panned deal of free agency that actually stuck (besides the failed Raiders bid for Rodger Saffold) was the four-year, $20 million deal the Titans gave former Ravens tackle Michael Oher, and that didn’t come in until Friday, three days after the new league year began.
If history is any guide, it seems to take about a week for the bargains to start showing up. Players who are desperate to avoid losing the real-life game of roster musical chairs call their agents in a panic, insisting upon taking an offer that might have seemed anathema just a few days earlier. There are built-in advantages to those deals, too; they’re often one-year pacts designed to get the player back out into the free-agency market after a solid season, ensuring a motivated year while limiting the downside risk of dead money that lingers after a poor signing is cut. They’re also usually signed with the league’s smarter teams, organizations that leave themselves just enough money in their budget to add a valuable piece or two once those pieces’ prices have come down. Some of the best free-agent signings of the year come after the first week has come and gone. Think Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers in San Francisco in 2011, or Karlos Dansby and John Abraham in Arizona last year.
Monday marks the seventh day of free agency, which means we’re about to hit the point where bargains will begin to reveal themselves. Allow me to point out a few. You’ll notice a few trends in here — players who were hurt a year ago, guys who might be past their prime, even some who were benched last season — but at this point in the market, the guys in their prime who played great last year have already been overpaid. The only player like that left in the marketplace is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and he’s probably going to get snapped up Monday. Let’s run through some of the players left unemployed who could be the success stories of 2014, starting with one high-variance quarterback:
Michael Vick, QB: Even allowing that NFL franchises are the most risk-averse species known to man, I can’t fathom a world in which the likes of Matt Cassel and Charlie Whitehurst are signing two-year contracts ahead of Vick. You don’t need me to tell you about Vick’s strengths and weaknesses, but it certainly seems fair to say he has a much higher upside than those guys, right? If you’re a team like the Titans that has a young quarterback who probably isn’t going to make it, whom would you rather have as your backup? Whitehurst isn’t going to test anybody, and if you’re stuck playing him, you’re just as screwed as you would be picking up any schlub off the street. At least with Vick, there’s the possibility he stays healthy long enough to swing a few games in your favor. A middling team would be much better off giving Vick $6 million on a one-year deal with incentives than it would be signing Cassel to a two-year, $10 million contract. If it doesn’t work out, guess what? Cassel is not going to work out anyway, and you can find 10 more mediocre backup quarterbacks in free agency next year. The Raiders should wise up while they still have the chance.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB: Three years ago, MJD was the most productive back in the league, leading the NFL in rushing yards. He also led the league in carries, which might very well be related to his six-game season the following year. He was productive on a per-carry basis in both those seasons, though, before posting the worst season of his career by a wide margin — 3.4 yards per carry after never dipping below 4.2 yards per pop — last season. Is he done? Possibly. MJD was also playing behind a terrible line against nine-man fronts on a team with absolutely no interest in competing. He’s still on the right side of 30, and while he’s been around forever, he had only three seasons with the workload of a true no. 1 back. Jones-Drew is also a solid receiver and a willing pass-blocker (ask Shawne Merriman if you’ve forgotten), so he doesn’t necessarily have to be a dominant rusher to justify a deal. On a one-year contract, he would make for a useful second banana alongside Montee Ball in Denver.
Santonio Holmes, WR: Holmes’s numbers have dropped off precipitously since his glory days with the Steelers, as he followed a 1,248-yard breakout season in 2009 by being dismissed and sent to the Jets for a nominal return. Holmes has failed to top 746 yards since, and he suffered a Lisfranc injury that kept him out for most of the 2012 season. He also has, shall we say, an uneven reputation as a teammate. Now, may I remind you who his quarterbacks were during his time with the Jets? That, more than anything, dramatically depressed Holmes’s production. He just turned 30, and the Lisfranc injury should be all but gone after an offseason of rest. I don’t think Holmes would make sense for a team with no leadership in the locker room, but for a veteran team like the Chiefs, I can think of worse ideas than bringing him in on a one-year deal to see if he looks better with a competent quarterback around.
Wade Smith, G: Nobody in Houston looks particularly appetizing after last year’s 2-14 campaign, but the 32-year-old Smith held down left guard on one of the league’s best lines for several years and was a Pro Bowler in 2012. He was athletic and versatile enough to play tackle earlier in his career, and while Smith might not be an every-down option there anymore, there’s still enough here to justify bringing him in as a utility lineman, especially for a zone-blocking team like the Seahawks.
Anthony Spencer, DE/LB: The last time we saw Spencer was in 2012, when he produced 11 sacks for the Cowboys and made it to Hawaii for the first time. Well, on a trip paid for by the NFL. He might have gone on his own before. The Cowboys franchised him for the second consecutive season, only for Spencer to undergo an offseason knee scope that didn’t take, leading to season-ending microfracture surgery after one game. Now, seven months later, Spencer is yet to sniff an offer. I used to argue that Spencer was overvalued by the Cowboys because he played across from DeMarcus Ware, but this is a totally different price point. Some team is going to give him a one-year deal with incentives and a small amount of guaranteed money, and it might very well get eight or nine sacks out of it. An organization like the Colts would have little to lose on such an offer.
Will Smith, DE: Likewise, Smith tore his ACL in August while being stretched into a new role as a 3-4 outside linebacker, one which hardly played to his strengths as a pass-rusher. The Saints were always going to cut him this offseason given his $11.5 million cap hit, but it’s hard to imagine the 32-year-old won’t be able to help somebody as a situational end this year.
Henry Melton, DT: Arguably the highest-upside player left on the market, Melton is another one who tore his ACL in 2013 after a Pro Bowl season the year before. He really found a role in Chicago as a penetrating defensive tackle in its 4-3 alignment, which is why the idea of suiting him up in Seattle has been so tantalizing. There doesn’t appear to be a financial fit there, but with rumors currently linking Melton to the Cowboys to play Jason Hatcher’s old role, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to outbid the cap-strapped Cowboys if they so desired. If Melton is willing to take a one-year deal to reestablish himself, they would be wise to do so.
Thomas DeCoud, S: DeCoud struggled notably at times during 2013 and was released by the Falcons to clear up much-needed cap space. He was also, for one, playing free safety behind two rookie cornerbacks for virtually the entire season. All the way back in 2012, the Falcons liked DeCoud enough to give him a five-year, $17.5 million extension, and he responded to the new deal by picking off six passes and making his first Pro Bowl. DeCoud turns 29 on Wednesday, but there is still enough here for a safety-poor team like the Bills, Chiefs, or Lions to try to buy low.
http://grantland.com/features/open-bargain-season/
If history is any guide, it seems to take about a week for the bargains to start showing up. Players who are desperate to avoid losing the real-life game of roster musical chairs call their agents in a panic, insisting upon taking an offer that might have seemed anathema just a few days earlier. There are built-in advantages to those deals, too; they’re often one-year pacts designed to get the player back out into the free-agency market after a solid season, ensuring a motivated year while limiting the downside risk of dead money that lingers after a poor signing is cut. They’re also usually signed with the league’s smarter teams, organizations that leave themselves just enough money in their budget to add a valuable piece or two once those pieces’ prices have come down. Some of the best free-agent signings of the year come after the first week has come and gone. Think Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers in San Francisco in 2011, or Karlos Dansby and John Abraham in Arizona last year.
Monday marks the seventh day of free agency, which means we’re about to hit the point where bargains will begin to reveal themselves. Allow me to point out a few. You’ll notice a few trends in here — players who were hurt a year ago, guys who might be past their prime, even some who were benched last season — but at this point in the market, the guys in their prime who played great last year have already been overpaid. The only player like that left in the marketplace is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and he’s probably going to get snapped up Monday. Let’s run through some of the players left unemployed who could be the success stories of 2014, starting with one high-variance quarterback:
Michael Vick, QB: Even allowing that NFL franchises are the most risk-averse species known to man, I can’t fathom a world in which the likes of Matt Cassel and Charlie Whitehurst are signing two-year contracts ahead of Vick. You don’t need me to tell you about Vick’s strengths and weaknesses, but it certainly seems fair to say he has a much higher upside than those guys, right? If you’re a team like the Titans that has a young quarterback who probably isn’t going to make it, whom would you rather have as your backup? Whitehurst isn’t going to test anybody, and if you’re stuck playing him, you’re just as screwed as you would be picking up any schlub off the street. At least with Vick, there’s the possibility he stays healthy long enough to swing a few games in your favor. A middling team would be much better off giving Vick $6 million on a one-year deal with incentives than it would be signing Cassel to a two-year, $10 million contract. If it doesn’t work out, guess what? Cassel is not going to work out anyway, and you can find 10 more mediocre backup quarterbacks in free agency next year. The Raiders should wise up while they still have the chance.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB: Three years ago, MJD was the most productive back in the league, leading the NFL in rushing yards. He also led the league in carries, which might very well be related to his six-game season the following year. He was productive on a per-carry basis in both those seasons, though, before posting the worst season of his career by a wide margin — 3.4 yards per carry after never dipping below 4.2 yards per pop — last season. Is he done? Possibly. MJD was also playing behind a terrible line against nine-man fronts on a team with absolutely no interest in competing. He’s still on the right side of 30, and while he’s been around forever, he had only three seasons with the workload of a true no. 1 back. Jones-Drew is also a solid receiver and a willing pass-blocker (ask Shawne Merriman if you’ve forgotten), so he doesn’t necessarily have to be a dominant rusher to justify a deal. On a one-year contract, he would make for a useful second banana alongside Montee Ball in Denver.
Santonio Holmes, WR: Holmes’s numbers have dropped off precipitously since his glory days with the Steelers, as he followed a 1,248-yard breakout season in 2009 by being dismissed and sent to the Jets for a nominal return. Holmes has failed to top 746 yards since, and he suffered a Lisfranc injury that kept him out for most of the 2012 season. He also has, shall we say, an uneven reputation as a teammate. Now, may I remind you who his quarterbacks were during his time with the Jets? That, more than anything, dramatically depressed Holmes’s production. He just turned 30, and the Lisfranc injury should be all but gone after an offseason of rest. I don’t think Holmes would make sense for a team with no leadership in the locker room, but for a veteran team like the Chiefs, I can think of worse ideas than bringing him in on a one-year deal to see if he looks better with a competent quarterback around.
Wade Smith, G: Nobody in Houston looks particularly appetizing after last year’s 2-14 campaign, but the 32-year-old Smith held down left guard on one of the league’s best lines for several years and was a Pro Bowler in 2012. He was athletic and versatile enough to play tackle earlier in his career, and while Smith might not be an every-down option there anymore, there’s still enough here to justify bringing him in as a utility lineman, especially for a zone-blocking team like the Seahawks.
Anthony Spencer, DE/LB: The last time we saw Spencer was in 2012, when he produced 11 sacks for the Cowboys and made it to Hawaii for the first time. Well, on a trip paid for by the NFL. He might have gone on his own before. The Cowboys franchised him for the second consecutive season, only for Spencer to undergo an offseason knee scope that didn’t take, leading to season-ending microfracture surgery after one game. Now, seven months later, Spencer is yet to sniff an offer. I used to argue that Spencer was overvalued by the Cowboys because he played across from DeMarcus Ware, but this is a totally different price point. Some team is going to give him a one-year deal with incentives and a small amount of guaranteed money, and it might very well get eight or nine sacks out of it. An organization like the Colts would have little to lose on such an offer.
Will Smith, DE: Likewise, Smith tore his ACL in August while being stretched into a new role as a 3-4 outside linebacker, one which hardly played to his strengths as a pass-rusher. The Saints were always going to cut him this offseason given his $11.5 million cap hit, but it’s hard to imagine the 32-year-old won’t be able to help somebody as a situational end this year.
Henry Melton, DT: Arguably the highest-upside player left on the market, Melton is another one who tore his ACL in 2013 after a Pro Bowl season the year before. He really found a role in Chicago as a penetrating defensive tackle in its 4-3 alignment, which is why the idea of suiting him up in Seattle has been so tantalizing. There doesn’t appear to be a financial fit there, but with rumors currently linking Melton to the Cowboys to play Jason Hatcher’s old role, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to outbid the cap-strapped Cowboys if they so desired. If Melton is willing to take a one-year deal to reestablish himself, they would be wise to do so.
Thomas DeCoud, S: DeCoud struggled notably at times during 2013 and was released by the Falcons to clear up much-needed cap space. He was also, for one, playing free safety behind two rookie cornerbacks for virtually the entire season. All the way back in 2012, the Falcons liked DeCoud enough to give him a five-year, $17.5 million extension, and he responded to the new deal by picking off six passes and making his first Pro Bowl. DeCoud turns 29 on Wednesday, but there is still enough here for a safety-poor team like the Bills, Chiefs, or Lions to try to buy low.
http://grantland.com/features/open-bargain-season/
