Stern pours cold water on 2010 free agents

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LOS ANGELES – About an hour before the start of the NBA Finals, the stamp on what he called a "season for the ages," David Stern offered his most dire prediction yet for what the recession will do to the NBA.

"Our revenues will likely be down some percentage, I can say maybe as much as 10 percent [next season]," Stern said in his annual pre-Finals media address. "But that's a small amount in the landscape here."

Stern has been discussing the economy's impact on the NBA business for months, but it was the first time he'd assigned a number to the projected percentage decline in revenue for next season. Perhaps he deliberately chose a high number, because he backtracked in a more intimate session with reporters afterward.

"It's funny, I say 10 percent, but of course I'm going to work as hard as I can to make it not 10 percent," Stern said. "If it's 5 percent or 7 percent or 3 percent, don't hold me to it." Asked how this doomsday estimate might affect collective bargaining negotiations that are scheduled to begin after the Finals, Stern said, "We're going to share numbers and then we'll both make our own judgments about what the impact of that will be. ... That's not, ‘The sky is falling,' because we really do believe that our business is actually quite robust."

Stern already has admitted that the salary cap – which is calculated each year based on the previous season's revenues – is going down slightly in 2009-10 based on this season's revenue. But Stern's worst-case projection of a 10 percent decline next season would cause the 2010-11 cap to be slashed significantly. That just so happens to be the Summer of LeBron, when several of the league's biggest stars will have a chance to become free agents.

So essentially what Stern did Thursday night was throw another variable into what is already a very tough decision for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh: Sign an extension this summer before the cap gets slaughtered, or wait?

http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/15402300

They already projected the salary cap to be at $57.3 million for this coming year. If there's a 10% drop on that, it would be about a $51.6 million cap.

This could hurt us in terms of the luxury tax, but the team that would really be screwed is the Knicks.

Eddy Curry and Jared Jefferies will presumably pick up their player options. And the Knicks will presumably pick up the team options on Chandler and Gallinari. They have the 8th pick this year, and probably will get around the same next year.

So the Knicks will have about $27.9 million tied up in salaries for 5 players and their 2010 draft pick. Add on salary penalties (for not having 12 players signed) and the Knicks are already up to $30.7 million. Under that cap, the max for Lebron/Bosh/Wade/Amare would be $15.5 million. They'd have a measly $5.9 million left in capspace to put a team around that superstar.

The Knicks plan doesn't look all that brilliant any more.
 

dougthonus

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I believe they already announced the salary cap and it was 56.3 million for this coming season. Someone emailed DX about it anyway, but it may have been a rumor. I don't have my email sine I'm at Fred's house, but I'll check it out when I get home.

A 10% drop definitely will push guys like Bosh/Amare to get trade/extension combinations done this year rather than waiting a year.
 

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