Jason Hammel Trade Rumor Thread

beckdawg

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Figured this trade is coming to so might as well have a topic for it. A trade could come as early as ~3 weeks given that's roughly when they dealt Feldman last year and they probably don't want to hold on to both him and Shark until the deadline because it will be competition with themselves if they decide to deal Shark. Peter Gammons hinted they could get a similar package to what they got out of Garza.

Cubs den approached the topic here
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/06/cubs-may-trade-jason-hammel-early/

Of the teams mentioned I kind of like the Jays potential better if they were willing to include Daniel Norris. His A+ numbers and age are similar to what Edwards were in A last season. Norris and Nolan would be a good start and shouldn't be that tough of a sell. If they could also manage to pry away Gose I'd consider that to be a pretty similar level deal to what Garza went for. I view Edwards and Norris at similar levels and Nolin is perhaps a bit better than either Grimm or Ramirez was.

As for why the Jays would do something like this, They wouldn't have to touch Sanchez and Stroman as well as Roberto Osuna who was actually a head of Norris on some lists but both had similar peaks with a 55-60 potential. Also, Alberto Tirado(similar potential to Nolin) was in their top 10 prospects going into this year as well as 6-7 other pitchers in their 10-20 range. They also drafted Jeff Hoffman with their first round pick who probably would have went top 5 if he didn't hurt his elbow. So, they definitely have plenty of pitching to replace Norris and Nolin.

I think the cubs probably will want more than just those two however and if not Gose I'm not sure what is interesting enough. Also, it might be prudent to avoid trading Hammel to the O's if possible since they appear to be one of the best suited to make a run at Shark. I think that the talks with Toronto have gone on long enough that if they haven't already come to a deal on Shark they aren't going to barring some sort of desperation move from either side. On the other hand, they have had enough talk and likely scouted enough to know the players they want from each other which would make framing a trade for Hammel easier.
 

CSF77

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The Blue Jays are deep with prospects and have an MLB ready starter in Sean Nolin, though his upside isn't the same as Jake Arrieta. Nolin has the ceiling of a #4 starter. The Jays also have two upside pitchers who are having disastrous years. Alberto Tirado cannot find the plate and Roberto Osuna is out for the season. It'd be high risk for upside, but it isn't like the Cubs are giving up more than 3 months of a pitcher in a non-contention year. Matt Boyd, a safer arm with modest upside, dominated Cubs affiliate Daytona last night.

The Yankees have some interesting arms and I'm sure the Cubs would love to get Dellin Betances or Ian Clarkin but the former is currently a key piece in the Yankees chances and the latter may end up being their best pitching prospect when the end of year rankings come out. The Cubs have shown interest in Manny Banuelos in the past. He has been pitching this season after battling through injuries but the Yankees likely aren't ready to give up on him yet.

The precedent has been established with the Feldman trade, can the Cubs front office get creative and pull of another deal for MLB ready talent? We many have to wait much longer to find out.


If they could get Manny Banuelos then I would be behind that trade. Jays I'm not excited about. No pitchers with top end.

Arrieta>Feldman. With Strop as a toss in. Solid return.

Garza: Ramirez solid. Grimm replacable. Edwards injured. Olt sucking.

More but Arrieta alone has more value than what Garza gave.

Reality is Olt may play himself out of baseball. Edwards may never get past his injuries. Ramirez becomes a closer. Grimm moves on.

So a #3 for a closer or a #5 for a #3 after it is said and done.
 

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More prospects.
 

beckdawg

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If they could get Manny Banuelos then I would be behind that trade. Jays I'm not excited about. No pitchers with top end.

MLB.com had Banuelos with these ratings
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50

Daniel Norris had these
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55

Both are lefties. Norris is 2 years younger. The two years Banuelos was over 90 IP he had 8.87/4.91 k/9 and bb/9 and 8.67/2.33 with 2.67 ERA and 3.59 at A and AA. His peak was as a 19 year old in A+ with 12.59/2.84 and a 2.23 ERA. Norris's last two lengthy stints anywhere he was 10.40/4.62 in A and 10.71/2.35 in A+ with 4.20 and 1.32 ERA's respectively.

Plus, there is the matter of Norris being on an upswing and Banuelos trending downward from what he was previously. The last time Banuelos had a bb/9 under 3.75 was in 2010(excluding the minimal 12.2 IP sample size from A+ this year). That's a giant problem for me. There's also the issue of what else the Yankees have to offer. Bryan Mitchell is in AA. Mark Montgomery is in AAA but is a reliever only. After those two they have no other pitcher above A+ in their top 20. Mitchell isn't as good of a prospect as Nolin is. I also don't like the idea of giving up Hammel for a guy who's missed the past 2 years and who even before he was hurt was struggling with control. I think it is a bad fit honestly.

I think Norris will jump up a lot of prospect lists around the all-star break when people start revising preseason lists. MLB had him at 98 prior to the season. You could make an argument he'll be in the 50ish range similar to the way Edwards jumped up on lists. He has two potential plus offerings and 2 other average pitches. If he can locate he's going to be a pretty decent starter. You compare his offerings with Hunter Harvey who Keith Law had in a revised top 25 and they are favorable. Harvey as graded by mlb.com had a 65 FB, 55 CU, 45 CH with 50 control and 55 overall. Harvey has 10.29/3.88 with a 3.13 ERA with a 3.81 FIP. Granted he's 19 and Norris is 21 but even then last year Norris as a 20 year old in A had 10.40/4.62 with a 4.20 ERA and 3.62 FIP. Norris probably doesn't have the command to be a #1 but then I don't think Banuelos has that sort of potential anymore either and anyone else you're likely talking about for Hammel is unlikely to have it either. That said, Norris profiles as a 2/3 starter.
 

chibears55

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It wont bother me if they trade him because I think its only a matter of time before he reverts to pitching to his career numbers.
I just hope when they do trade him its for someone who gonna make an impact in 2015 , not for low end prospects we have to wait and hope they make a difference in a few years.

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beckdawg

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It wont bother me if they trade him because I think its only a matter of time before he reverts to pitching to his career numbers.

It's not just that. He's also a FA after this season. Had you suggested prior to the season that Jason Hammel should get a long term deal you would have been rightly mocked. 3 months of pitching shouldn't change that.
 

beckdawg

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HBT believes that Hammel ends up in Seattle.

I don't really get that. Presumably they aren't trading Walker since they wouldn't have for Price and Hammel isn't Price. Paxton is an ok piece but probably not more than a 3/4 and on top of that he's hurt. They do have some lower level arms but I'm not really seeing the main piece of a trade. Maybe I'm overvaluing Hammel but given what they got out of Garza with similar stats and a similar injury track record and team control that seems like where the cubs would start their asking price. Edit: I forgot that also had Danny Hultzen but he too is still hurt.

The way Wittenmyer's column was worded is hard to read.
Sources say the Cubs already have had trade talks with multiple teams regarding Samardzija and right-hander Jason Hammel. The Braves, Mariners and Blue Jays are among the most interested, with one source suggesting offers already have been made by at least two teams.

And one major-league source said he expects Hammel to end up in Seattle.

They don't indicate which of the players the offers were for. Presumably you would expect Shark but I suppose you could also argue that Hammel is the easier of the two pieces to move and it's unlikely the cubs would be moving Shark this early unless someone totally blew them away.
 

chibears55

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Heard the Giants were interested in samardzija ..

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I don't really get that. Presumably they aren't trading Walker since they wouldn't have for Price and Hammel isn't Price. Paxton is an ok piece but probably not more than a 3/4 and on top of that he's hurt. They do have some lower level arms but I'm not really seeing the main piece of a trade. Maybe I'm overvaluing Hammel but given what they got out of Garza with similar stats and a similar injury track record and team control that seems like where the cubs would start their asking price. Edit: I forgot that also had Danny Hultzen but he too is still hurt.

The way Wittenmyer's column was worded is hard to read.


They don't indicate which of the players the offers were for. Presumably you would expect Shark but I suppose you could also argue that Hammel is the easier of the two pieces to move and it's unlikely the cubs would be moving Shark this early unless someone totally blew them away.


Isn't it always good to give up quality players and get something in return, when the primary goal at this time is not success?
 

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I don't really get that. Presumably they aren't trading Walker since they wouldn't have for Price and Hammel isn't Price. Paxton is an ok piece but probably not more than a 3/4 and on top of that he's hurt. They do have some lower level arms but I'm not really seeing the main piece of a trade. Maybe I'm overvaluing Hammel but given what they got out of Garza with similar stats and a similar injury track record and team control that seems like where the cubs would start their asking price. Edit: I forgot that also had Danny Hultzen but he too is still hurt.

The way Wittenmyer's column was worded is hard to read.


They don't indicate which of the players the offers were for. Presumably you would expect Shark but I suppose you could also argue that Hammel is the easier of the two pieces to move and it's unlikely the cubs would be moving Shark this early unless someone totally blew them away.

hammel is not garza. please dont cherry pick.


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beckdawg

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hammel is not garza. please dont cherry pick.


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That's your opinion and you're welcome to it. However, numbers wise they are quite similar this year. Additionally, Gammons has hinted at that being the asking price for him. I mean I'm willing to humor the idea that they wont get as much as Garza did but simply put Hammel also isn't Feldman either. At the very least he's worth an Edwards level prospect. Perhaps you don't get Olt-level with him. I could see something like an Edwards level prospect with one or two minor fillers similar to what Ramirez and Grimm were.
 

CSF77

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MLB.com had Banuelos with these ratings
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50

Daniel Norris had these
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 45 | Overall: 55

Both are lefties. Norris is 2 years younger. The two years Banuelos was over 90 IP he had 8.87/4.91 k/9 and bb/9 and 8.67/2.33 with 2.67 ERA and 3.59 at A and AA. His peak was as a 19 year old in A+ with 12.59/2.84 and a 2.23 ERA. Norris's last two lengthy stints anywhere he was 10.40/4.62 in A and 10.71/2.35 in A+ with 4.20 and 1.32 ERA's respectively.

Plus, there is the matter of Norris being on an upswing and Banuelos trending downward from what he was previously. The last time Banuelos had a bb/9 under 3.75 was in 2010(excluding the minimal 12.2 IP sample size from A+ this year). That's a giant problem for me. There's also the issue of what else the Yankees have to offer. Bryan Mitchell is in AA. Mark Montgomery is in AAA but is a reliever only. After those two they have no other pitcher above A+ in their top 20. Mitchell isn't as good of a prospect as Nolin is. I also don't like the idea of giving up Hammel for a guy who's missed the past 2 years and who even before he was hurt was struggling with control. I think it is a bad fit honestly.

I think Norris will jump up a lot of prospect lists around the all-star break when people start revising preseason lists. MLB had him at 98 prior to the season. You could make an argument he'll be in the 50ish range similar to the way Edwards jumped up on lists. He has two potential plus offerings and 2 other average pitches. If he can locate he's going to be a pretty decent starter. You compare his offerings with Hunter Harvey who Keith Law had in a revised top 25 and they are favorable. Harvey as graded by mlb.com had a 65 FB, 55 CU, 45 CH with 50 control and 55 overall. Harvey has 10.29/3.88 with a 3.13 ERA with a 3.81 FIP. Granted he's 19 and Norris is 21 but even then last year Norris as a 20 year old in A had 10.40/4.62 with a 4.20 ERA and 3.62 FIP. Norris probably doesn't have the command to be a #1 but then I don't think Banuelos has that sort of potential anymore either and anyone else you're likely talking about for Hammel is unlikely to have it either. That said, Norris profiles as a 2/3 starter.

That is why Manny would be easier to attain. Perceived value.

After injury recovery.

A+ 2.84 ERA .947 WHIP. 9.9 SO/9
AA: 3.66 ERA 1.169 WHIP 9.2 SO/9

It looks like he is getting back to pitching form post T.J.

Even in 2010 he was 2.51 ERA 1.222 WHIP 11.8 SO/9

He is in the right direction right now and seeing how he is in AA now he would be running with Edwards and Johnson in Tenn then Iowa next year.

That would put them 1 2 3 on SP prospects hitting at the same time. Right now the best they have is Wada....ya ex Japanese vet. Hendricks has not looked as dominate against replacement level talent in Iowa. They need a quality arm in return.

The way I look at it. Baez and Alcantara will promote this year with Hendricks. Hammel is 100% traded. Barney traded. Bonifacio traded.

I see Alcantara moved to CF. Lake in LF and RF is under debate.

Shark is a trickier question. He can get a top 100 pitching prospect. Not an ex-100 prospect who is making a come back.

I wouldn't accept any less for shark. Hammel is not going to net a top 100 pitcher but he could get a pitcher like Arrieta who needed a change but had talent or a pitcher like Manny who would have been a MLB player by now except for a injury.
 

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With Shark I would set the bar at Aaron Sanchez from the Jays.

Balt Kevin Gausman

Yanks I would not offer Shark to them and I would focus Hammel for Manny.

KC is having a little run. I would think of Sean Manaez and Boni's kid brother Jorge.

Seattle would be interesting but I believe they will be in the Hammel sweepstakes more. Shark will be talent pricey.


NL I would target Col for Grey. He would be my #1 target.

NL east

Braves Lucas Sims.

Nats Lucas Giolito.

Guy I would want the most is Grey. Guy I think they could get is Kevin Gausman. They have done business many of a time and Gausman has had a taste of MLB action. He would slot right into the rotation this year.
 

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The Cubs have another year of service plus money to spend. The only way they should trade Shark is if they get absolutely everything they want for him. Anything else would be a disgrace to the organization and fans.
 

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The Cubs have another year of service plus money to spend. The only way they should trade Shark is if they get absolutely everything they want for him. Anything else would be a disgrace to the organization and fans.

They haven't worried about disgracing the organization and the fans the last 3 years, why start now?
 

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I don't really get that. Presumably they aren't trading Walker since they wouldn't have for Price and Hammel isn't Price. Paxton is an ok piece but probably not more than a 3/4 and on top of that he's hurt. They do have some lower level arms but I'm not really seeing the main piece of a trade. Maybe I'm overvaluing Hammel but given what they got out of Garza with similar stats and a similar injury track record and team control that seems like where the cubs would start their asking price. Edit: I forgot that also had Danny Hultzen but he too is still hurt.
Don't get locked into the notion that they have to get arms. Nick Franklin is a very interesting piece that has struggled a ton in Seattle. However, he hits left handed and can play SS, 2B and some OF, and is just 23 years old. Get him out of Safeco and he might blossom. I would say that is a hell of return on a 30 year old rental starting pitcher with an up and down career/checkered health history.
 

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