beckdawg
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This came up in the Hammel thread I believe and perhaps the Shark rumor thread. For those who are unaware, the new CBA set up a system similar to the draft slot allotment for international FAs. These slots are tradeable assets if you remember as the cubs traded for/away some last year. What the cubs also did was went ape-shit on spending last season to the point where they can't sign any single international FA over $250k. Why this matters is because as the 4th worst team last year the cubs have a shit load of international slot money. The 4th slot is worth $2,288,700. They also have the 34nd slot worth $458,000, the 64th worth $309,300, and the 94th worth $206,700. As a reference, the 30th ranked IFA last year got $300k. So, the cubs are unlikely to sign much of anything there this year in terms of name recognition. As another reference, they signed Jen-Ho Tseng who was #23 for $1.625 mil(he's a pitcher so he got significantly more). MLB.com had Tseng as a 45 ranking(50 is average) and 19th in the cubs top 20. So, anything below the #30 prospect is hoping for someone to develop skills rather than someone who has them.
The way trading these slots works is you can't trade part of the money. You trade the slot and all the money associated with it. Given they are so limited in terms of max they can offer, the first 2 slots almost assuredly will be traded because there's very little chance they spend the ~$500k they have with the last two slots. Maybe they go a scatter shot approach and sign a lot of lessor guys but i'm honestly not even sure what the full pool of IFA players would be. In other words, there may only be 50 guys worth even giving IFA money to and the top 30 may all be $300k or more.
Placing value on those slots is difficult. The easiest case is the cubs/astros trade for Ronald Torreyes for the Astros #2/3 slots. The 2 and 3 slots from the astros last year were worth $468,400 and $316,300. So, the #4 overall slot is worth roughly 3.5x as much value. Torreyes isn't a huge prospect and never was. Bleacher nation had him at 35 going into 2013 though keep in mind 35 in the cubs system might be 30ish in some other systems though. What's 3.5x that worth? Hard to say. To a team like the yankees likely something mildly decent seeing as they plan to spend heavy there this year according to reports. I'd argue the cubs first two slots are worth something in the range of a #15 prospect in an average system and possibly more. Last year the ~$2.8 mil for the cubs first two slots was almost enough to sign Eloy Jimenez for $2.8 mil who was rated the cubs #12 prospects coming into this year according to mlb.com and was the #1 overall IFA.
With the #5 team(Twins) only having $3,686,600 total there's not a ton of top end money to be traded. In other words, a team hunting for a lot of money may pay a premium since the high end slots are scarce. Those teams with the scarce slots would be Astros, Cubs, W. Sox, Miami and Twins. Last season, Houston traded all but their #1 slot. The twins kept all their slots last season. Miami traded their 4th slot. Sox kept all their slots.
Why all of this matters is the start of the IFA signing period is july 2 which means in about 10 days teams will start trying to sign these guys and you have to have the slots to sign them. As such, trade talks will heat up with regard to them. Last year the ones that were traded were more often throw in pieces. For example, the cubs got 2 from the O's as an additional part of the Feldman trade. One went to the dodgers with Nolasco in that trade and so on. The astros/cub trade i mentioned was the only player for slot trade. So, perhaps any trade the cubs make will come with another player.
The Yankees have been typically labeled as big spenders coming into this year. If they want to spend to the same level the cubs did last year, you're likely talking the cubs top two slots plus the Astro's 2, 3 and 4 slots and maybe another $300-800k in slots. It's been suggested by some as a sweetener in a Hammel trade. However, I honestly don't think they have enough to get him without the slots. I think a better case is for something like Valbuena and the slots for <x>. Roberts is playing second for them and is hitting .239/.323/.337 and at the very least Valbuena would be a better bench piece than Kelly Johnson to have as a backup at 2B/3B. What exactly that nets you I'm not sure but it should be worth a top 10 prospect in their system.
The way trading these slots works is you can't trade part of the money. You trade the slot and all the money associated with it. Given they are so limited in terms of max they can offer, the first 2 slots almost assuredly will be traded because there's very little chance they spend the ~$500k they have with the last two slots. Maybe they go a scatter shot approach and sign a lot of lessor guys but i'm honestly not even sure what the full pool of IFA players would be. In other words, there may only be 50 guys worth even giving IFA money to and the top 30 may all be $300k or more.
Placing value on those slots is difficult. The easiest case is the cubs/astros trade for Ronald Torreyes for the Astros #2/3 slots. The 2 and 3 slots from the astros last year were worth $468,400 and $316,300. So, the #4 overall slot is worth roughly 3.5x as much value. Torreyes isn't a huge prospect and never was. Bleacher nation had him at 35 going into 2013 though keep in mind 35 in the cubs system might be 30ish in some other systems though. What's 3.5x that worth? Hard to say. To a team like the yankees likely something mildly decent seeing as they plan to spend heavy there this year according to reports. I'd argue the cubs first two slots are worth something in the range of a #15 prospect in an average system and possibly more. Last year the ~$2.8 mil for the cubs first two slots was almost enough to sign Eloy Jimenez for $2.8 mil who was rated the cubs #12 prospects coming into this year according to mlb.com and was the #1 overall IFA.
With the #5 team(Twins) only having $3,686,600 total there's not a ton of top end money to be traded. In other words, a team hunting for a lot of money may pay a premium since the high end slots are scarce. Those teams with the scarce slots would be Astros, Cubs, W. Sox, Miami and Twins. Last season, Houston traded all but their #1 slot. The twins kept all their slots last season. Miami traded their 4th slot. Sox kept all their slots.
Why all of this matters is the start of the IFA signing period is july 2 which means in about 10 days teams will start trying to sign these guys and you have to have the slots to sign them. As such, trade talks will heat up with regard to them. Last year the ones that were traded were more often throw in pieces. For example, the cubs got 2 from the O's as an additional part of the Feldman trade. One went to the dodgers with Nolasco in that trade and so on. The astros/cub trade i mentioned was the only player for slot trade. So, perhaps any trade the cubs make will come with another player.
The Yankees have been typically labeled as big spenders coming into this year. If they want to spend to the same level the cubs did last year, you're likely talking the cubs top two slots plus the Astro's 2, 3 and 4 slots and maybe another $300-800k in slots. It's been suggested by some as a sweetener in a Hammel trade. However, I honestly don't think they have enough to get him without the slots. I think a better case is for something like Valbuena and the slots for <x>. Roberts is playing second for them and is hitting .239/.323/.337 and at the very least Valbuena would be a better bench piece than Kelly Johnson to have as a backup at 2B/3B. What exactly that nets you I'm not sure but it should be worth a top 10 prospect in their system.
