Ranking the Cubs best prospects

Jfinger2014 · Jun 30, 2014

Just wanna see everyone's personal rankings of the Cubs top 10 prospects along with estimated time of arrival to the Majors

1.) Kris Bryant -2015
2.) Javier Baez-2015
3.) C.J Edwards - 2015
4.) Jorge Soler - 2016
5.) Albert Almora - 2017
6.) Kyle Scwharber - 2017
7.) Arisemdy Alcantra - 2015
8.) Kyle Hendricks - 2016
9.) Arodys Vizcaino - 2015
10.) Pierce Johnson - 2016

this is just to see who everyone thinks are the Cubs best prospects and what year will the Cubs finally be able to push for a playoff spot

gotta be optimistic sorry if I misspelled some names lol

beckdawg · Jun 30, 2014

I really don't like to look at things in terms of top 10 lists. The reason is because people often have unrealistic expectations of what that means. Even when you're talking about a top 50 overall prospect that often just means they are a better than average starter. If we use mlb.com's scouting rankings Soler at #41 in their top 100 is the last 60 level prospect. A 60 rating is "above average." If you translate the 20-80 scale into WAR, you're talking likely something like this

20-30 = 0-1.5 WAR(Scrub/4A type)
31-50 = 1.5-2 WAR(Role Player)
51-60 = 2-3 WAR(Solid Starter)
61-70 = 3-4.5 WAR(Good Player/All-Star)
71-80 = 4.5-6+ WAR(Superstar/MVP)

While ratings vary from source to source, I think you can sort of group the players the cubs in that regard. Baez and Bryant are the only two with a realistic shot at being 5+ WAR players based off what we know now with their floor being something less but still decent. I'd put Soler, Almora, Alcantara and Edwards(assuming he stays a starter) in that 3-5 WAR range potential with their floor being something in the solid starter range. Schwarber I'm not going to speculate on because we've not seen nearly enough data. After that you're hoping guys are solid starters with floors at some where between 4A and role players. In the case of Vizcaino, I don't think he should really be all that high unless they eventually build him up to be a starter. Even the best reliever last year(Uehara) was a 3.3 WAR player and it falls off very quickly after him. The #7 WAR reliever was Trevor Rosenthal with 2.2 WAR which is roughly an average player if you're talking position wise.

As for ETA's, I think Alcantara and Bryant could legitimately be up this season whether or not the team promotes them. Based on what Baez has done I'd prefer him to stay in the minors for the rest of the AAA season at the minimum. Perhaps you give him a shot after the AAA season ends but I really don't think he's ready yet for MLB pitching. Soler it's tough to say on because his issue is less with how he's played and more with health. They've been trying to build him physically to sustain. If he stays healthy and continues to play well you could potentially talk about him around the all-star break next year. Keep in mind he's 22 so he's about the right age wise for AAA even if he's still in AA. Almora's likely 3 years away unless he forces the issue with play. Schwarber is 21 and assuming he hits could be up in 2 or so years. Edwards is 22 but given the worry about him as a long term starter I'd suggest he will probably be in the minors 2-3 more years to build him up physically especially after his injury set back this year. Hendricks will be up this year after trades most likely. Vizcaino could be up now if there weren't injury concerns. If they decide to give him a shot at starting maybe another year or two. Johnson is probably 2-3 years away.

Additionally, I just want to throw in that people shouldn't sleep on Alcantara. I think his ceiling is higher than Soler and Almora. His last 2 years have been spectacular. He gets over shadowed by Bryant and Baez the past two years. Of the players i lumped in that secondary group in terms of WAR, he's the one I'd put as having the best shot to reach the superstar level. Last year he hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 steals at 2B in AA. This year in roughly half a season he is hitting .303/.344/.544 with 10 HRs and 18 steals. The HR/SB combo at 2B is a huge value. As a comparison, Kipnis hit .284/.366/.452 with 17 homers and 30 steals and was a 4.5 WAR player. You're potentially talking about what Ian Kinsler was for the Rangers earlier in his career before injuries set him back.

ZAN · Jun 30, 2014

1.) Kris Bryant -2015 - cup of coffee in September '14 if he keeps his BA/OBP over .300/.350 in AAA
2.) Javier Baez- 2014 - call me crazy, but he's coming up this summer. .368 in his last 10 games. he's coming around.
3.) C.J. Edwards - 2015 - cup of coffee in September '14...maybe sooner if we unload Hammel/Arrieta/Shark
4.) Jorge Soler - 2016 - cup of coffee in September '15
5.) Kyle Schwarber - 2015 - this kid is hotter than hell (8 HR in 54 ABs between lo and high A ball). he's a fast-track college hitter. will be in Daytona by July. Start in Iowa next year...up on ML roster in August/Sept. no need for a 3 year minor-league plan
6.) Albert Almora - 2017 - cup of coffee in September '16
7.) Arismendy Alcantara - 2014 late summer - this kid is the disrespected player in the Cubs system. he'll could be up THIS year for that very reason. try him at 2B before Baez.
8.) Dan Vogelbach - I don't see Vogie ever playing a game in a Chicago Cubs uniform. We have our left handed 1st baseman of the future, which means Vogie has to go to a corner outfield spot. Between Soler, Bryant (possibly), Almora, Schwarber, and inevitably signing PROVEN corner OF talent...Vogelbach best serves us as a trade chip when we start to contend
9.) Arodys Vizcaino - 2015 - if he's healthy...
10.) Pierce Johnson - 2016 - cup of coffee/spot start call-up guy in 2015.

beckdawg · Jun 30, 2014

ZAN said:
5.) Kyle Schwarber - 2015 - this kid is hotter than hell (8 HR in 54 ABs between lo and high A ball). he's a fast-track college hitter. will be in Daytona by July. Start in Iowa next year...up on ML roster in August/Sept. no need for a 3 year minor-league plan

No way he starts in Iowa next year. Best case he's on the same path as Bryant and starts in AA after an AFL appearance. That said, I think Bryant should see time late this year so I think 2015 is fine if he plays like Bryant has or something less that resembles. However, I think you're probably going to see him 2016 most likely.

brett05 · Jun 30, 2014

beckdawg said:
I really don't like to look at things in terms of top 10 lists. The reason is because people often have unrealistic expectations of what that means. Even when you're talking about a top 50 overall prospect that often just means they are a better than average starter. If we use mlb.com's scouting rankings Soler at #41 in their top 100 is the last 60 level prospect. A 60 rating is "above average." If you translate the 20-80 scale into WAR, you're talking likely something like this

20-30 = 0-1.5 WAR(Scrub/4A type)
31-50 = 1.5-2 WAR(Role Player)
51-60 = 2-3 WAR(Solid Starter)
61-70 = 3-4.5 WAR(Good Player/All-Star)
71-80 = 4.5-6+ WAR(Superstar/MVP)

While ratings vary from source to source, I think you can sort of group the players the cubs in that regard. Baez and Bryant are the only two with a realistic shot at being 5+ WAR players based off what we know now with their floor being something less but still decent. I'd put Soler, Almora, Alcantara and Edwards(assuming he stays a starter) in that 3-5 WAR range potential with their floor being something in the solid starter range. Schwarber I'm not going to speculate on because we've not seen nearly enough data. After that you're hoping guys are solid starters with floors at some where between 4A and role players. In the case of Vizcaino, I don't think he should really be all that high unless they eventually build him up to be a starter. Even the best reliever last year(Uehara) was a 3.3 WAR player and it falls off very quickly after him. The #7 WAR reliever was Trevor Rosenthal with 2.2 WAR which is roughly an average player if you're talking position wise.

As for ETA's, I think Alcantara and Bryant could legitimately be up this season whether or not the team promotes them. Based on what Baez has done I'd prefer him to stay in the minors for the rest of the AAA season at the minimum. Perhaps you give him a shot after the AAA season ends but I really don't think he's ready yet for MLB pitching. Soler it's tough to say on because his issue is less with how he's played and more with health. They've been trying to build him physically to sustain. If he stays healthy and continues to play well you could potentially talk about him around the all-star break next year. Keep in mind he's 22 so he's about the right age wise for AAA even if he's still in AA. Almora's likely 3 years away unless he forces the issue with play. Schwarber is 21 and assuming he hits could be up in 2 or so years. Edwards is 22 but given the worry about him as a long term starter I'd suggest he will probably be in the minors 2-3 more years to build him up physically especially after his injury set back this year. Hendricks will be up this year after trades most likely. Vizcaino could be up now if there weren't injury concerns. If they decide to give him a shot at starting maybe another year or two. Johnson is probably 2-3 years away.

Additionally, I just want to throw in that people shouldn't sleep on Alcantara. I think his ceiling is higher than Soler and Almora. His last 2 years have been spectacular. He gets over shadowed by Bryant and Baez the past two years. Of the players i lumped in that secondary group in terms of WAR, he's the one I'd put as having the best shot to reach the superstar level. Last year he hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 steals at 2B in AA. This year in roughly half a season he is hitting .303/.344/.544 with 10 HRs and 18 steals. The HR/SB combo at 2B is a huge value. As a comparison, Kipnis hit .284/.366/.452 with 17 homers and 30 steals and was a 4.5 WAR player. You're potentially talking about what Ian Kinsler was for the Rangers earlier in his career before injuries set him back.

Floor or ceiling? I'm confused as everyone's floor would be the same right? 100% bust.

ZAN · Jun 30, 2014

beckdawg said:
No way he starts in Iowa next year. Best case he's on the same path as Bryant and starts in AA after an AFL appearance. That said, I think Bryant should see time late this year so I think 2015 is fine if he plays like Bryant has or something less that resembles. However, I think you're probably going to see him 2016 most likely.

I could see a similar timetable to Bryant. Let him rake for 200-250 ABs at Tennessee to start next year.

But if the kid keeps raking like he, wouldn't you think he'd will be in Tennessee by year's end? If he's still clubbing .375+ with his huge power numbers through July...I see no reason not to get him there. Especially considering the FO would like to get an ETA for the big 4 (possibly big 5) to be end of 2015 at the latest (with Almora probably being a good bet for 2016).

beckdawg · Jun 30, 2014

brett05 said:
Floor or ceiling? I'm confused as everyone's floor would be the same right? 100% bust.

Well perhaps I should put it this way, there's a floor assuming they are major league players. Yes, every player may not make the majors/bounce down quickly and there's your 100% bust. However, assuming those players make the majors, their skill set likely puts them where I had them. What I was trying to get at is, if Bryant is a disappointment he's still likely to be an above average player just not a super star. Someone like Almora should still be a starter even if he doesn't reach his ceiling because of his defense. So on and so forth.

SilenceS · Jun 30, 2014

Alcantara will be on the team at some point this year. Bryant and Baez have a good shot of not seeing any major league time. They arent on the 40 man roster. Alcantara is on the 40 man.

I posted a breakdown of halves in the first half of the season. Baez since May 15 had been pretty good. His K rate was still at 31% percent that was 7% down from earlier in the season. He has also walked a good bit lately and the K's havent been overwhelming. He seems to be adjusting and I read the Cubs have him working on specific things, so stat lines is usually not always the way to go with prospects. We will see what the Cubs do.

As a top 10

Baez
Bryant
Alcantara
Almora
Schwarber
Soler
Edwards
Volgelbach
Vizcaino
Jen Ho Tseng

Baez and Bryant are 1A and 1B. Im going with the potential of Baez to also be a gold glover at third or second. Bryant is all bat. Baez has more to his game. Bryant is the safer pick.

brett05 · Jun 30, 2014

beckdawg said:
Well perhaps I should put it this way, there's a floor assuming they are major league players. Yes, every player may not make the majors/bounce down quickly and there's your 100% bust. However, assuming those players make the majors, their skill set likely puts them where I had them. What I was trying to get at is, if Bryant is a disappointment he's still likely to be an above average player just not a super star. Someone like Almora should still be a starter even if he doesn't reach his ceiling because of his defense. So on and so forth.

OK so you are saying at what level you would be disappointed, not what a player's floor is. Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying.

brett05 · Jun 30, 2014

SilenceS said:
Alcantara will be on the team at some point this year. Bryant and Baez have a good shot of not seeing any major league time. They arent on the 40 man roster. Alcantara is on the 40 man.

I posted a breakdown of halves in the first half of the season. Baez since May 15 had been pretty good. His K rate was still at 31% percent that was 7% down from earlier in the season. He has also walked a good bit lately and the K's havent been overwhelming. He seems to be adjusting and I read the Cubs have him working on specific things, so stat lines is usually not always the way to go with prospects. We will see what the Cubs do.

As a top 10

Baez
Bryant
Alcantara
Almora
Schwarber
Soler
Edwards
Volgelbach
Vizcaino
Jen Ho Tseng

Baez and Bryant are 1A and 1B. Im going with the potential of Baez to also be a gold glover at third or second. Bryant is all bat. Baez has more to his game. Bryant is the safer pick.

First I am reading Baez has a good glove. For me Bryant is so far and away ahead of every single guy the Cubs have right now and if I think back so far and away ahead of every single guy that has ever been in the cubs system as a prospect in the 30ish years that I have known about prospects. He's laps ahead of the next guy.

SilenceS · Jun 30, 2014

brett05 said:
OK so you are saying at what level you would be disappointed, not what a player's floor is. Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying.

What are you asking? When you are talking about players floors and ceilings. They are talking about talent wise. Albert Almora is considered the highest floor of the Cubs prospects. What they are saying is he is the safest to make it to the majors. He has some sort of tool set that would play in the majors now. In Almora case is defense, he also isnt a high strikeout guy which means he will make contact most of his career. He doesnt have a lot of swing and miss to his game which makes him a safer prospect hence the higher floor. Now, Baez has the highest ceiling because his tool set can allow for 30 plus homer seasons with 20 stolen bases. But, because Baez game has a lot of swing and miss. His floor can be that of a major bust. People dont realize how talented and close all these guys really are in the scheme of things. I know a couple of major leaguers and they told me that everyone is extremely talented its just little things that make a .260 hitter not a .300 hitter and so forth.

There are safe picks and then there are all potential picks. McLeod article of fangraphs talked about this. You can draft a college player who is close to major league ready, but doesnt have much room for growth. That would be high floor, low ceiling. Then, you can take a prep athlete who can be a superstar or never see a minute in the majors. Thats high ceiling, low floor.

SilenceS · Jun 30, 2014

brett05 said:
First I am reading Baez has a good glove. For me Bryant is so far and away ahead of every single guy the Cubs have right now and if I think back so far and away ahead of every single guy that has ever been in the cubs system as a prospect in the 30ish years that I have known about prospects. He's laps ahead of the next guy.

He is far and away cause he is having a great season. Baez season last year made him great as well. Baez is the youngest active players in AAA. First time you are reading Baez has a good glove? Scouts have always talked about him being a potential gold glover if he moved to the hot corner. Baez has incredible instincts on the field and on the basepaths. HE is over 80% successful on stolen bases in the minors. Baez problem is they think he will outgrow short and lose quickness for the spot. HE also has problem with slow plays. He is better at reacting. He also has a strong arm. I am ok with Bryant being the number 1 prospect in the farm, but far and above is a stretch. People are looking at stat lines to much.

dabears253313 · Jun 30, 2014

Jfinger2014 said:
Just wanna see everyone's personal rankings of the Cubs top 10 prospects along with estimated time of arrival to the Majors

1.) Kris Bryant -2015
2.) Javier Baez-2015
3.) C.J Edwards - 2015
4.) Jorge Soler - 2016
5.) Albert Almora - 2017
6.) Kyle Scwharber - 2017
7.) Arisemdy Alcantra - 2015
8.) Kyle Hendricks - 2016
9.) Arodys Vizcaino - 2015
10.) Pierce Johnson - 2016

this is just to see who everyone thinks are the Cubs best prospects and what year will the Cubs finally be able to push for a playoff spot gotta be optimistic sorry if I misspelled some names lol

I think that's a good list. I wish CJ Edwards would be in AA already. I think Kyle Hendricks is going to the pretty good, he isn't hyped up like some of the other players. I hope Hendricks gets his chance before 2016, he'll be turning 27 that year.

brett05 · Jun 30, 2014

SilenceS said:
He is far and away cause he is having a great season. Baez season last year made him great as well. Baez is the youngest active players in AAA. First time you are reading Baez has a good glove? Scouts have always talked about him being a potential gold glover if he moved to the hot corner. Baez has incredible instincts on the field and on the basepaths. HE is over 80% successful on stolen bases in the minors. Baez problem is they think he will outgrow short and lose quickness for the spot. HE also has problem with slow plays. He is better at reacting. He also has a strong arm. I am ok with Bryant being the number 1 prospect in the farm, but far and above is a stretch. People are looking at stat lines to much.

Not I

brett05 · Jun 30, 2014

SilenceS said:
What are you asking? When you are talking about players floors and ceilings. They are talking about talent wise. Albert Almora is considered the highest floor of the Cubs prospects. What they are saying is he is the safest to make it to the majors. He has some sort of tool set that would play in the majors now. In Almora case is defense, he also isnt a high strikeout guy which means he will make contact most of his career. He doesnt have a lot of swing and miss to his game which makes him a safer prospect hence the higher floor. Now, Baez has the highest ceiling because his tool set can allow for 30 plus homer seasons with 20 stolen bases. But, because Baez game has a lot of swing and miss. His floor can be that of a major bust. People dont realize how talented and close all these guys really are in the scheme of things. I know a couple of major leaguers and they told me that everyone is extremely talented its just little things that make a .260 hitter not a .300 hitter and so forth.

There are safe picks and then there are all potential picks. McLeod article of fangraphs talked about this. You can draft a college player who is close to major league ready, but doesnt have much room for growth. That would be high floor, low ceiling. Then, you can take a prep athlete who can be a superstar or never see a minute in the majors. Thats high ceiling, low floor.

Don't reallt recall anyone speaking of floor

remixdjinx · Jun 30, 2014

You said personal..so here's my personal, of the above...

1. Bryant 14
2. Scwharber 15
3. Baez 14
4. ALmora 15
5. Hendricks 15
6. Edwards 16
7. Johnson 16
8. Alcantra 15
9. Vizcaino 15
10. Soler ?????? never? traded? Scwharber, Bryant, Lake, and Almora....Where do you put Solar?

Captain Obvious · Jun 30, 2014

remixdjinx said:
You said personal..so here's my personal, of the above...

1. Bryant 14
2. Scwharber 15
3. Baez 14
4. ALmora 15
5. Hendricks 15
6. Edwards 16
7. Johnson 16
8. Alcantra 15
9. Vizcaino 15
10. Soler ?????? never? traded? Scwharber, Bryant, Lake, and Almora....Where do you put Solar?

In Lake's spot.

However, I think Soler is going to be a bust. I think that his injuries are going to catch up to him. Theo said they are working on a re-program of his body that changes the way his feet work and hit the ground to combat the hamstring injuries. I am very skeptical of that and think Soler will end up bouncing around the minors for his career.

SilenceS · Jun 30, 2014

I still think Soler will be a solid major leaguer one day. In fact, I still believe in him more than Almora. The only thing to stop Soler is Soler himself.

beckdawg · Jun 30, 2014

Even if you're talking SS, the defensive issues people talk about with Baez are sort of over blown. If you look at the numbers, last year he had I think 31 errors in Daytona in 70ish games. The rest of his minor league career he had something like 40 in 200 games. To see if it was him or potentially something like poor A ball infields, I looked at Castro's numbers in Daytona. He also had like 30 errors in 90 games which was far and away his worst fielding in the minors. His numbers in AAA suggest he's at least average there maybe better. I doubt Baez ever ends up in that very good to gold glove level at short because let's be honest, it's not really what his focus on like many other SS would be.

However, if you look at someone like Troy Tulowitzki who hopefully is a similar career to Baez hitting wise, Tulow had 34 errors in 655 chances for a fielding% of .948 in the minors. Baez has 78 in 1294 chances for a fielding% of .940. Tulow has won 2 gold gloves. As far as skill set, Baez has a near elite level arm(65 rating according to mlb.com) and when you add in he's got 25 SB potential, he's probably got pretty decent range.

I honestly think Baez playing SS in the majors has less to do with him and more to do with other parts. I've made the argument that you could consider trading Castro before. But even before considering that you'd really have to have a lot of stuff go right to really NEED to trade him. Even if Baez, Alcantara and Bryant all pan out you can easily get by playing Alcantara at 2B, Baez at 3B and Bryant in RF or if you are like some(definitely not me) Baez at 2B, Bryant at 3B and Alcantara some where in the OF. Basically, to warrant having to play Baez at SS you'd need those 3 to pan out plus Schwarber and likely Soler to play well and get to the majors in the next two years. At that point you'd have two corner OF's, Bryant likely having to play 3B, and only 2B to play Alcantara/Baez.

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