BA's and BP's top 50 midseason lists

Parade_Rain

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theberserkfury said:
I'm not saying comfort doesn't have an impact on performance... but what exactly are you basing this comment off of: "LOL. If he doesn't like 3B, how well do you think a player's D is going to be at the corner?" The implication is that his D won't be good/great, right? I don't think his possible stated preference of playing 2B is nearly enough to laugh at the notion of him being a decent defender at 3rd.
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The implication is that if he's been somewhere before it's going to be easier to transition to that previous position than a completely new one.

theberserkfury said:
As for the "dead horse" remark, I really have no idea what you're trying to refer to.
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I didn't create the strawman that needed to be beaten.

theberserkfury said:
You're the one forming strong opinions on his willingness/ability/comfort to play 3rd based on a random not-even-quote from CFS...
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I fomed an opinion based upon the comment in BA that Bryant is doing better than expected at 3B. If that's the case, why would Baez move to a position he hasn't played when 2B would be indicated to be open (Alcantara is playing more CF now)? If he (Bryant) is not going to be called up at the same time, Valbuena has value to hold down 3B and Baez shifts to 2B. I don't find it difficult to connect the dots, but if he goes to 3B, I will be the first to admit I was wrong. ;)
 

beckdawg

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Parade_Rain said:
I fomed an opinion based upon the comment in BA that Bryant is doing better than expected at 3B.
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I found their comment there slightly odd on BA's part. I wouldn't really consider his Tenn. performance good. Maybe their expectation was he has 0 shot at sticking I'm not sure. That being said, it's really hard to judge minors. Maybe he's had better range than they thought and the errors were just mental mistakes...etc. Who knows? My worry with him is that he's at best going to be average there and like Castro he may end up being below average. With run totals getting lower from steroid-era that lack of defense could come back to bite them.

If Bryant were Scott Rolen out there then I could buy Baez to 2B more. However, as I view him not likely to stick there based on his error totals thus far it leaves me wondering who will be there. And given Baez hits more like a 3B than a 2B and given numerous high profile SS have shifted to 3B despite not playing there much in the minors it seems like an obvious fit to me. That plus the fact corner OF probably makes Bryant a better defender, 3B or 2B likely makes Baez a better defender and 2B should be easier than CF for Alcantara given there's a lot fewer great CF defenders. Perhaps that's me connecting dots that aren't there like I said but if I'm right it sure seems like the best option.
 
SilenceS

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beckdawg said:
Ironic this comment is in this thread. If you believe baseball prospectus you're talking about the #5 talent vs the #18 talent. Even if you want to use BA who's more conservative, it's #7 vs #33. Again, I think people are overlooking Alcantara because he was in the 80's+ preseason and Alcantara likely would be higher if he had played a premium position to start with SS(moved off obviously)/CF. If you compare Russell's and Alcantara's numbers they are relatively similar albeit Russell doing it as a 19 year old. Same case with Joc Pederson and they are the same age.
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A 5 talent to an 18 talent is pretty huge in the prospect world.
 

beckdawg

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SilenceS said:
A 5 talent to an 18 talent is pretty huge in the prospect world.
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Realistically top 15 are roughly the same tier players. Granted 18 is just outside of that. But again, if Alcantara was listed as a CF or a SS and had the stats he did we'd be talking about a much higher ranking. Additionally, you're talking about a risky talent vs one who's been fairly steady. Not saying Baez is a homerun or a bust as the only two outcomes but his bust factor is higher than likely any other prospect in the top 10. As an example, Parks(BP) has compared Alcantara to Jose Reyes. He may not get there but he's not just a guy hoping to be a MLB starter. He has star potential. Also, even if Baez isn't an outright bust, it's likely he may not reach his full potential. If Baez only ever is a .250/.330/.500 hitter with 25-30 HRs it's significantly different than .280/.346/.500 with 35+ HR power and that gap between the two is less especially if Alcantara does reach his full potential.
 
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JZsportsfan said:
Soler can't be too far off from the list. He just hasn't been healthy. Same goes for Edwards
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If still on the team and not traded, Soler is going to be a lot better than most think, and he will be one of the better prospects coming out of the organization IMO. Two years ago, I had said to watch out for Alcantara with his skill level and surprising power. I hope I'm right on Soler too.

I know it's a good thing to have surplus, but sometimes I think about which ones I would trade.

Not sure out of Baez, Bryant, Soler, Alcantara, and Schwarber, which, if any I would give up considering you also have Russell, Almora, Vogelbach, and McKinney in the system.
 
SilenceS

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beckdawg said:
Realistically top 15 are roughly the same tier players. Granted 18 is just outside of that. But again, if Alcantara was listed as a CF or a SS and had the stats he did we'd be talking about a much higher ranking. Additionally, you're talking about a risky talent vs one who's been fairly steady. Not saying Baez is a homerun or a bust as the only two outcomes but his bust factor is higher than likely any other prospect in the top 10. As an example, Parks(BP) has compared Alcantara to Jose Reyes. He may not get there but he's not just a guy hoping to be a MLB starter. He has star potential. Also, even if Baez isn't an outright bust, it's likely he may not reach his full potential. If Baez only ever is a .250/.330/.500 hitter with 25-30 HRs it's significantly different than .280/.346/.500 with 35+ HR power and that gap between the two is less especially if Alcantara does reach his full potential.
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What has been more consistent about Alcantara? He has had one good year with walk rate and strikes out a good bit as well. He doesnt have near the power or the hit tool to bat for real high average. Your realistic ceiling for Alcantara is Castro right now with 30 bags a year stolen. Baez ceiling is considerably higher and even his middle ground would be considerably higher then that. HE has a BABIP of .380 right now which is ridiculous. I like Alcantara, but people need to pump the brakes on him.
 
SilenceS

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Boobaby1 said:
If still on the team and not traded, Soler is going to be a lot better than most think, and he will be one of the better prospects coming out of the organization IMO. Two years ago, I had said to watch out for Alcantara with his skill level and surprising power. I hope I'm right on Soler too.

I know it's a good thing to have surplus, but sometimes I think about which ones I would trade.

Not sure out of Baez, Bryant, Soler, Alcantara, and Schwarber, which, if any I would give up considering you also have Russell, Almora, Vogelbach, and McKinney in the system.
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Soler just has to stay healthy. He has performed when healthy. I have always wanted to trade Almora. I never truly cared for the pick.
 
Boobaby1

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SilenceS said:
Soler just has to stay healthy. He has performed when healthy. I have always wanted to trade Almora. I never truly cared for the pick.
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Wish he would start to elevate everything so he becomes a good candidate in the event of a trade. Got to say that I am a little disappointed that he is still in A ball. Apparently he still has issues to work out.

Yes, he is young, but he was thought to be the one with the least amount of worries. Now it kind of seems he is the one who has the farthest to go.
 

beckdawg

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SilenceS said:
What has been more consistent about Alcantara? He has had one good year with walk rate and strikes out a good bit as well. He doesnt have near the power or the hit tool to bat for real high average. Your realistic ceiling for Alcantara is Castro right now with 30 bags a year stolen. Baez ceiling is considerably higher and even his middle ground would be considerably higher then that. HE has a BABIP of .380 right now which is ridiculous. I like Alcantara, but people need to pump the brakes on him.
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This seems odd coming from you who tells me that I'm constantly undervaluing Castro. A more valuable Castro would be a pretty great player. Also what's this talk of "one good year?" He hit .302/.339/.447 with 7 HRs and 25 SBs as a 20 year old in A+. Last year he hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 SB as a 21 year old in AA. And this year he's hitting .307/.353/.537 with 10 HRs and 21 SB as a 22 year old in AAA. That's 2.5 years of solid play. If you're suggesting his walk rate has only been good for the AA year perhaps but since mid May he's been in the 10% range in bb rate. And even if you take 2014 as a whole, 7% walk rate isn't bad. It's within range of what Baez has done.

As for Baez, I acknowledged his higher ceiling but you have to acknowledge him reaching that is far more risky. That's not talking down Baez because I hope he's everything we think he can be but we saw how AAA pitcher exploited him early in the year. It's good to see him adjusting since then but we've seen enough guys who K at his rates inevitably fail in the majors. Even a player like Brett Jackson looked like he had it figured out in AAA despite his 29.8% k rate when he hit .297/.388/.551 in 2011. Baez at 31.7% and .242/.308/.453 should worry people some. And what I mean about him making it but not quite what people think is to say what if he's Pedro Alvarez? Alvarez was the #12 BA prospect in 2008 and the #8 prospect in 2009. So, we're talking similar top end. And similar to Baez he's had high K rates and high power. Alvarez has been a career .236/.309/.438 hitter with roughly 30 HR's year. If Baez is that and Alcantara is even slightly below that Castro like top end it's a likely a roughly equivalent player.
 

beckdawg

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Boobaby1 said:
Wish he would start to elevate everything so he becomes a good candidate in the event of a trade. Got to say that I am a little disappointed that he is still in A ball. Apparently he still has issues to work out.

Yes, he is young, but he was thought to be the one with the least amount of worries. Now it kind of seems he is the one who has the farthest to go.
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He's still 20 which isn't just young it's young for A+. And Daytona is in the FL St. league which is the toughest minor league to hit in. We saw Vogelbach who's a full year older than him struggle this year as well. I never thought Almora was going to be an elite level player. I figured he'd be a more Crisp like player at his top end. But even having said that, Almora has hit .275/.299/.385. His on base obviously needs some work and with his 3.1% bb rate.

Overall, I wouldn't really worry about Almora. He has great contact putting 85.5% of balls in play and he doesn't k all that much at around 11%. But like I said, his top end isn't really "amazing." He's also been quite good lately.
 

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TL1961 said:
Good grief, he's #3. What's the complaint?
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I think there's legitimate reason to believe he's a better hitter than Correa or Buxton (both of which have had injury ridden seasons).
 
SilenceS

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beckdawg said:
This seems odd coming from you who tells me that I'm constantly undervaluing Castro. A more valuable Castro would be a pretty great player. Also what's this talk of "one good year?" He hit .302/.339/.447 with 7 HRs and 25 SBs as a 20 year old in A+. Last year he hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HRs and 31 SB as a 21 year old in AA. And this year he's hitting .307/.353/.537 with 10 HRs and 21 SB as a 22 year old in AAA. That's 2.5 years of solid play. If you're suggesting his walk rate has only been good for the AA year perhaps but since mid May he's been in the 10% range in bb rate. And even if you take 2014 as a whole, 7% walk rate isn't bad. It's within range of what Baez has done.

As for Baez, I acknowledged his higher ceiling but you have to acknowledge him reaching that is far more risky. That's not talking down Baez because I hope he's everything we think he can be but we saw how AAA pitcher exploited him early in the year. It's good to see him adjusting since then but we've seen enough guys who K at his rates inevitably fail in the majors. Even a player like Brett Jackson looked like he had it figured out in AAA despite his 29.8% k rate when he hit .297/.388/.551 in 2011. Baez at 31.7% and .242/.308/.453 should worry people some. And what I mean about him making it but not quite what people think is to say what if he's Pedro Alvarez? Alvarez was the #12 BA prospect in 2008 and the #8 prospect in 2009. So, we're talking similar top end. And similar to Baez he's had high K rates and high power. Alvarez has been a career .236/.309/.438 hitter with roughly 30 HR's year. If Baez is that and Alcantara is even slightly below that Castro like top end it's a likely a roughly equivalent player.
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I dont get the Alvarez comparison. 1. Baez is way more athletic. 2. I never seen Alvarez have the same hit tool. 3. I think they are compared because they have lots of power and strikeout.

As for Alcanatara, yes, pump the brakes. The guy hasnt had one major league at bat and you think he is this all star. He K's a lot and still doesnt walk much. He wont have the same power in the majors. I like Alcantara. I was one of the first guys on his bandwagon, but people are going over board on what these prospects will most likely become.
 
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ZAN

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I view Alcantara as early BJ Upton with less power and more contact as a fair comp.
 
dabynsky

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SilenceS said:
I dont get the Alvarez comparison. 1. Baez is way more athletic. 2. I never seen Alvarez have the same hit tool. 3. I think they are compared because they have lots of power and strikeout.

As for Alcanatara, yes, pump the brakes. The guy hasnt had one major league at bat and you think he is this all star. He K's a lot and still doesnt walk much. He wont have the same power in the majors. I like Alcantara. I was one of the first guys on his bandwagon, but people are going over board on what these prospects will most likely become.
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The other reason Alvarez is a terrible comp is that Alvarez despite striking out a ton has a way better eye at the plate. His walks rates in the majors are higher than Baez's have ever been in the minors.
 

beckdawg

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SilenceS said:
I dont get the Alvarez comparison. 1. Baez is way more athletic. 2. I never seen Alvarez have the same hit tool. 3. I think they are compared because they have lots of power and strikeout.

As for Alcanatara, yes, pump the brakes. The guy hasnt had one major league at bat and you think he is this all star. He K's a lot and still doesnt walk much. He wont have the same power in the majors. I like Alcantara. I was one of the first guys on his bandwagon, but people are going over board on what these prospects will most likely become.
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As for Alvarez, I'm not saying they are identical players. Alvarez is likely what you're talking about Baez being if his K's stop him from being the player his potential is. I'm not sure what's confusing about that. If he isn't able to overcome them he's going to have a poor average in the majors but still has the power tool. That's Alvarez in a nutshell as a hitter. Sure Baez is more athletic but that doesn't change him as a hitter. Alvarez is the type of player who feasts off mistakes but doesn't put enough balls into play with a career 9.2%/29.5% bb/k rate. Baez at 8.4%/31.7% in AAA is dangerously close to that. I'm not guaranteeing that's what Baez will be. But it definitely is a possibility.

The reason I am talking Alcantara up in the first place is the very flip side of why you think I hate Castro. Many people overvalue the player Castro is. He's probably a top 5 SS when you consider both hitting and defense but some act like he's an untouchable superstar when he's not been that level of player. On the other hand, many people are entirely undervaluing Alcantara. The words "super-utility player" generally aren't viewed as a complement for someone with the potential to be an all-star level player. Emilio Bonifacio is a super utility player and at 29 he's on his 5th major league team. Mark DeRosa another name you brought up in another thread played for 6 major league teams. Ryan Freel played for 6 major league teams. If any other prospect who was a top 100 or top 50 prospect became a player bouncing from team to team we'd be talking about how they were a terrible bust. Don't believe me? What about Corey Patterson who's played for multiple major league teams? Or how about Felix Pie who believe it or not is still on a major league team.

All I'm saying is Alcantara deserves to be in the conversation of players like Baez because while he may not have Baez's top end, he's also a hell of a lot more likely to fill out his potential. And as of today, Alcantara has been the better AAA player. So, when we bring up Alcantara's name with super-utility it bugs me. If you're saying he's going to be Ben Zobrist or Prado then fine, say he's that type of player. But putting a "super-utility" label on him means something entirely different to me at the very least.
 
SilenceS

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beckdawg said:
As for Alvarez, I'm not saying they are identical players. Alvarez is likely what you're talking about Baez being if his K's stop him from being the player his potential is. I'm not sure what's confusing about that. If he isn't able to overcome them he's going to have a poor average in the majors but still has the power tool. That's Alvarez in a nutshell as a hitter. Sure Baez is more athletic but that doesn't change him as a hitter. Alvarez is the type of player who feasts off mistakes but doesn't put enough balls into play with a career 9.2%/29.5% bb/k rate. Baez at 8.4%/31.7% in AAA is dangerously close to that. I'm not guaranteeing that's what Baez will be. But it definitely is a possibility.

The reason I am talking Alcantara up in the first place is the very flip side of why you think I hate Castro. Many people overvalue the player Castro is. He's probably a top 5 SS when you consider both hitting and defense but some act like he's an untouchable superstar when he's not been that level of player. On the other hand, many people are entirely undervaluing Alcantara. The words "super-utility player" generally aren't viewed as a complement for someone with the potential to be an all-star level player. Emilio Bonifacio is a super utility player and at 29 he's on his 5th major league team. Mark DeRosa another name you brought up in another thread played for 6 major league teams. Ryan Freel played for 6 major league teams. If any other prospect who was a top 100 or top 50 prospect became a player bouncing from team to team we'd be talking about how they were a terrible bust. Don't believe me? What about Corey Patterson who's played for multiple major league teams? Or how about Felix Pie who believe it or not is still on a major league team.

All I'm saying is Alcantara deserves to be in the conversation of players like Baez because while he may not have Baez's top end, he's also a hell of a lot more likely to fill out his potential. And as of today, Alcantara has been the better AAA player. So, when we bring up Alcantara's name with super-utility it bugs me. If you're saying he's going to be Ben Zobrist or Prado then fine, say he's that type of player. But putting a "super-utility" label on him means something entirely different to me at the very least.
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So, Castro is over valued and Alcatara is under valued? One is 3 time major league all star. The other hasnt taken a ML at bat.
 

beckdawg

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SilenceS said:
So, Castro is over valued and Alcatara is under valued? One is 3 time major league all star. The other hasnt taken a ML at bat.
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Again, you're missing my point. It's a difference in perceived value. By saying Castro is over valued that doesn't mean he's a bad player. It means people think he's worth more than he is. I've used the comparison to Ian Desmond before. By any statistical measure, Desmond last year was as good as Castro has been this year or any point in his career. Desmond likely is going to hit FA because the Nats and him are at an impasse contractually. Players that are untouchable like some suggest Castro is don't reach FA. Desmond as a similar level player likely will.
 
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