Prolonged Losing Leading to Success?

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/history-indicates-cubs-competitive-cycle/?sm_id=social_20140725_28510716
Read this article from Baseball America about teams that have drafted in top 10 for 5 consecutive years which the Cubs are on the verge of doing.

Mongo_76 · Jul 25, 2014

All but two of the 10 teams went on to make the playoffs, the Cleveland Indians (1970-1975), an organization known for mismanagement during that era, and the Kansas City Royals (1997-2003),

This is straight from the article and is clearly another way of saying that losing doesn't guarantee success.

SilenceS · Jul 25, 2014

Mongo_76 said:
All but two of the 10 teams went on to make the playoffs, the Cleveland Indians (1970-1975), an organization known for mismanagement during that era, and the Kansas City Royals (1997-2003),

This is straight from the article and is clearly another way of saying that losing doesn't guarantee success.

i am almost positive you didnt read the whole thing. Straight from the article

Excluding the Indians and Royals, who had only one winning season in the following decade, all other teams combined to make the playoffs in 46 percent of their seasons over the next decade. Note, more than 60 percent of those seasons came in the divisional era before the wild card, or even the second wild card.

While this look is not predictive when looking at the Cubs and each team that met this criterion had its own unique competitive cycle, it indicates that the majority of teams in a similar situation to the Cubs have gone on to periods of success, most of them quickly.

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

Mongo_76 said:
All but two of the 10 teams went on to make the playoffs, the Cleveland Indians (1970-1975), an organization known for mismanagement during that era, and the Kansas City Royals (1997-2003),

This is straight from the article and is clearly another way of saying that losing doesn't guarantee success.

Where did I say guaranteed success?

Parade_Rain · Jul 25, 2014

What Mongo is looking for is verifiable proof that the long rewarding journey is truly rewarding. Anything less than that and this losing period to build the entire franchise from the ground up will seem foolish. So the reality is that until the Cubs are no longer obvious sellers at the deadline, he and others will remain very skeptical. I don't want to speak for him, but that's how I read his frustration through his posts.

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

Parade_Rain said:
What Mongo is looking for is verifiable proof that the long rewarding journey is truly rewarding. Anything less than that and this losing period to build the entire franchise from the ground up will seem foolish. So the reality is that until the Cubs are no longer obvious sellers at the deadline, he and others will remain very skeptical. I don't want to speak for him, but that's how I read his frustration through his posts.

No I realize that this is a pointless exercise engaging with him and others of ilk in these type of discussions. I didn't post the article specifically for him though, and I found it very interesting to see the almost immediate results teams have experienced following drafting that high for that long.

Mongo_76 · Jul 25, 2014

Parade_Rain said:
What Mongo is looking for is verifiable proof that the long rewarding journey is truly rewarding. Anything less than that and this losing period to build the entire franchise from the ground up will seem foolish. So the reality is that until the Cubs are no longer obvious sellers at the deadline, he and others will remain very skeptical. I don't want to speak for him, but that's how I read his frustration through his posts.

No. I don't want or expect verifiable proof. But hell yes I hope for a payoff. REmember, I'm the Cubs fans who thinks you should play to win...

dabynsky said:
Where did I say guaranteed success?

You didn't. I was referring to points I made elsewhere that throwing games only guarantees losing those games/seasons. Not success.

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

Mongo_76 said:
You didn't. I was referring to points I made elsewhere that throwing games only guarantees losing those games/seasons. Not success.

There are no guarantees in baseball, but empirical evidence provided in the article suggests probability is in the Cubs favor at this point.

Mongo_76 · Jul 25, 2014

There are no guarantees in baseball, but empirical evidence provided in the article suggests probability is in the Cubs favor at this point

Theos talent jettisoning these past few weeks (and years) suggests the probability that the Cubs will lose 30 to 40 more games this year.

It's not in the Cubs favor "at this point". Probably not 2015 either.

Icculus · Jul 25, 2014

Out of the nine teams on this list (The Braves twice) only three won the World Series and one other (Rockies in 2007) appeared in one. None of these teams captured more than one title. The probability is high for at least one playoff appearnce, but not as far as reaching the top of the mountain, just saying.

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

Mongo_76 said:
Theos talent jettisoning these past few weeks (and years) suggests the probability that the Cubs will lose 30 to 40 more games this year.

It's not in the Cubs favor "at this point". Probably not 2015 either.

This seems like willfully ignoring the text of the article at this point.

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

Ziggy said:
Out of the nine teams on this list (The Braves twice) only three won the World Series and one other (Rockies in 2007) appeared in one. None of these teams captured more than one title. The probability is high for at least one playoff appearnce, but not as far as reaching the top of the mountain, just saying.

I will take a 1 in 3 chance of winning the World Series, but as many have stated postseason success is often not the most talented team. The fact that 80% of the teams in this scenario immediately improved after drafting in the top 10 for five years is heartening.

Mongo_76 · Jul 25, 2014

dabynsky said:
This seems like willfully ignoring the text of the article at this point.

I don't disagree with the article.

Parade_Rain · Jul 25, 2014

Ziggy said:
Out of the nine teams on this list (The Braves twice) only three won the World Series and one other (Rockies in 2007) appeared in one. None of these teams captured more than one title. The probability is high for at least one playoff appearnce, but not as far as reaching the top of the mountain, just saying.

Yes. When you look at those teams, the one of interest is the Braves, IMHO.

brett05 · Jul 25, 2014

What's the balance between hitting and pitching with those teams???

Parade_Rain · Jul 25, 2014

Good question. With the Braves second run they had a fantastic pitching staff.

TL1961 · Jul 25, 2014

Parade_Rain said:
What Mongo is looking for is verifiable proof that the long rewarding journey is truly rewarding. Anything less than that and this losing period to build the entire franchise from the ground up will seem foolish. So the reality is that until the Cubs are no longer obvious sellers at the deadline, he and others will remain very skeptical. I don't want to speak for him, but that's how I read his frustration through his posts.

So when the article says "all but 2 of 10 made the playoffs", he sees the 2.

TL1961 · Jul 25, 2014

Ziggy said:
Out of the nine teams on this list (The Braves twice) only three won the World Series and one other (Rockies in 2007) appeared in one. None of these teams captured more than one title. The probability is high for at least one playoff appearnce, but not as far as reaching the top of the mountain, just saying.

How many teams have won more than one WS in the past 25 years?

Yankees with a dominant stretch and another later, of course.

Cards with 2 - in years not at all their best years, BTW.
SF (somehow)

Anyone else?

Am I missing someone obvious?

dabynsky · Jul 25, 2014

TL1961 said:
How many teams have won more than one WS in the past 25 years?

Yankees with a dominant stretch and another later, of course.

Cards with 2 - in years not at all their best years, BTW.
SF (somehow)

Anyone else?

Am I missing someone obvious?

Marlins won 2 in 6 years (97-03). The Red Sox have won 3 in the past decade (04-13)

nwfisch · Jul 25, 2014

It might.

it also might not, despite what the fanboys want to believe.

Prolonged Losing Leading to Success?

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