JimJohnson
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Wrong thread bud
Wrong thread bud
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beckdawg
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The problem with this as I see it is he would have to have 21.9% k rate over the next 400ish PAs to have a 30% k rate in his first 600 PAs. I just don't see that happening.
JimJohnson
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CSF77
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I was thinking of a full year him getting 600 AB's. Not this year included. He was over matched this year but he should learn from it. He can't go up there thinking he can blast every pitch.
I would be happy seeing him go 1 for 3 single to RF and a BB with 1 SO a few times to prove that he can adapt. Let his HR's be on mistakes.
TC in Mississippi
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Brand new poster here, Cub fan since 1968. I haven't read this entire thread but the thoughts I've read here seem to be the same ones I've seen elsewhere on Baez. My thoughts are simple, you can't trade this kid until you know what you have. If Jed & Theo know what they have in him already and decide to move him I trust decision. Part of me hopes they do but the fact remains that of all the Cubs top prospects Baez is the only one with a generational gift and that's bat speed. It can't be taught and from every smart baseball mind I've ever spoken to it's something scouts only see once a decade or so and often those kids never make it out of A ball. Baez made it through the minors and is 21 years old. His ceiling is higher than any other prospect they have save Addison Russell, maybe. Yes the K rate is a problem but most people I've discussed this with think that he only needs to get it to about 30%. His ceiling is probably a slash line of .282/.330/.650 with 40 plus HR. That's a perennial All Star and 5.0 plus WAR player. Again if the brass is sure he's a bust out, but all means trade him because I guarantee that bat speed will lure some drooling GM's despite his 2014 numbers. The thing is there is a serious Brock for Broglio potential here. I don't have the answers and I'm damned glad I don't have to make that decision but unless they know who he is already, and they might, they have to give him every chance despite the risk of diminishing value. just my two cents.
brett05
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1) Welcome and sorry you've been a Cub fan for so long
2) I think your ceiling is way high on him. Only 95 "players" have slugged that high or better. I wouldn't put Baez there at all. Same with his ob%. But I understand your point.
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1) Welcome and sorry you've been a Cub fan for so long
2) I think your ceiling is way high on him. Only 95 "players" have slugged that high or better. I wouldn't put Baez there at all. Same with his ob%. But I understand your point.
If your talking true ceiling, it's actually low. His true top ceiling is that of .300 hitter but it's unlikely unless his k rate come
To around 20 percent or so
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brett05
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I never talked about BA. I think you quoted the wrong post.
TC in Mississippi
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It was my post I think you meant to quote. I hadn't heard anyone talk .300 for Baez mostly because I think most scouts expect at his best that he's going to have a 30% strikeout rate, or roughly 160-170 SO/year. Given that I don't think you're get much more than .280. It's the home runs where people seem to differ the most. I was chatting with 2 scouts at a AA game in 2013 and one said he was a 30 HR hitter the other said 40-45 per year easy. They then proceeded to argue among themselves which was kind of funny. The one who had him with the higher HR total said ceiling was a HoF player.
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Ive read a lot of things from he will never make it to the majors to he can be the next Miguel Cabrera. Now, the reason he could be a .300 hitter is because of his bat speed. He hits balls harder then a normal player. This should allow his BABIP to stay well over league average. Also, his bat speed allows him to make up for mistakes. He doesnt need to stop being aggressive. He needs to learn a zone he can handle though. His power is really legit. Not many players have that power at his age. He is a work in progress, but he has worked his ass off to prove people wrong.
beckdawg
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I categorically disagree with this assertion that people make. If a player fails he has no trade value. We can get into the semantics of differing value between Baez and Brett Jackson but the simple fact is Brett Jackson was a top 50 player and two years after his debut brought nothing of value in return. That's why the "wait and see" approach is conceptually flawed. You either trade a player on their potential or you ride it out until there's nothing left to do but release them or trade him for what essentially amounts to nothing or they inevitably make it. There's no value to be had if a player fails and you wait and see.
Also this potential 5+ WAR player is a huge stretch in my mind. If you want to talk realistic upside seasons I think you start with something like these
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=20736&players=0
If we exclude rookie/low/mid A ball, Baez's best season was easily last year in AA where he had a 7.9% walk rate, a 28.8% k rate and a .346 OBP. So, filtering on <= 9% walk rate, >= 25% k rate and <= .360 OBP seems quite generous for expectations. What you'll note about the first 6 seasons on that list is all of them were significantly above average defensively. The data thus far albeit small sample doesn't suggest Baez is even average. But for the sake of argument, let's assume he can improve and call him average going forward. At that point you're still talking about someone likely to be similar to 2013 Mark Trumbo/Pedro Alvarez or 2001 Richie Sexson which is roughly a 3 WAR player.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to talk down those players. Sexson was a 2x All-Star. The point I'm trying to make here is that talking about Baez's potential in say the top 10 players in the league or hell even Rizzo level(5.6 fWAR this season) is beyond a stretch at this point. If someone wants to make the claim that Baez's has yet to play up to his tools potential even in the minors and thus something like that list of players from fangraphs shouldn't apply fine. But that's still relying on hope that a player reaches a level that they have never shown in 1400ish PAs. As for the Brock comment, I don't have to go back to the mid 60's to find a case of a top 10 player never reaching that level people thought they would get to. Does anyone want to trade for Jesus Montero(BA's #6 2012) now? What about Domonic Brown(BA's #4 2011)? Mike Moustakas(BA's #9 2011)? Pedro Alvarez(#8 2010)?
Simply put, I believe Baez's current trade value is higher than what he'll ever really produce. Do you trade Baez to just get rid of him for whatever a team will give you? Of course not. The entire point of this is capitalizing on a player's peak value and frankly the only way you're not doing that is if Baez becomes a superstar. I'll humor the argument that he does become a 5 WAR player. If you deal him for a 4 WAR pitcher(Sharks value) is that really "losing" the trade? There were 24 positional players with 5+ fWAR. There were only 15 pitchers with 4+ fWAR. Additionally, you're talking about dealing from a position of strength and getting a player at a weakness. And I say that not just because Russell is behind Baez. You have any number of potential MLB regulars in Alcantara, Valbuena who's put up 6.2 fWAR over the past 1241 PAs(~2 seasons) as well as a number of players in the minors.
To me there's relatively few cases where you lose on trading him while there's an enormous risk of him being nothing two years from now. And if that nets you a player at a less crowded position who's already passed the unknown prospect phase that's all the better. I don't want to cast everyone in the same group but I honestly think this has become a case of many people having nothing to look forward to besides these prospects which has made the idea of trading them impossible to some. The irony here is that a large part of the reason for that was that your Brett Jackson's and Josh Vitters of the world didn't become those players. All I'm trying to do is point out to people that if the cubs can can get a younger all-star player(Heyward/Strasburg/whomever) for Baez you'd be silly to risk that for the hope that Baez becomes one.
TC in Mississippi
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I am not opposed to trading Baez in theory but my gut tells me he's going to improve in 2015, not get worse. Now if Philly would take something like Baez, McKinney and Vogelbach in a trade for Cole Hamels I'd make that deal yesterday the thing is I don't see that deal happening. Philly wants Russell and probably won't back off of that. I'm probably more on the side of the people that Baez is going be a generational player than I am on the side of him being a bust but I can see it either way. Opinions on the kid are really evenly split but everyone agrees that his bat speed is something that only comes along once a decade or so in a prospect. I see that as a lure for potential trading partners as much as I see it as a reason he could be in Wrigley for the next ten years. As far as his value never being better I disagree with that mainly because I don't see a 30% K rate over a full season as an impossibility in 2015 while hitting 25 plus home runs. That makes him more valuable at the deadline in 2015 or in the offseason next year. Here's the one place where I can get on board with your point of view though and that's if Theo & Jed are more towards your side than the side where Baez become a superstar. That's what they get paid the big bucks for and if they believe that then they should be hyping him to the heavens and trying to make a sweetheart deal. Only they know that though and again they get paid for that.
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Without risk there is no reward. Round and round it goes. Im going to enjoy watching Baez next year. Thats all I know.
beckdawg
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Well let's be real here you don't get "worse" from a 40%+ k rate. It's quite literally the worst any player has ever had over at least 200 PAs. So that's not really even in question. The question is whether or not he gets better and if so how much. You're welcome to your opinion but I honestly don't agree with your value placement on him if he's at 30% K rate. Just doing the math, if you assume he gets 600 PAs that means he's k'ing 180 times. Let's assume a 7% walk rate as that's splitting the difference between his 6.6% this season and his 7.8% in the minors. That's 42 walks giving him 378 more opportunities. You're going to have something in the neighborhood of 15 sac's and HBP which wont count as AB's. So let's conservatively call that 600 PAs 540 ABs however given we've established 180 k's that's actually 360 more chances. If we're generous and assume a BABIP of .330 you're talking about something like 120 hits giving him something like a .222 average with roughly a .290ish OBP if my math is correct. Looking for players to put up similar numbers it appears to be close. Jason Castro for example had 512/465 PAs/ABs with a 6.6% walk rate and a 29.5% k rate with a .222/.286/.366 triple slash and a .294 BABIP.
The question becomes how much his power offsets that as HRs disproportionately change value. Chris Carter of the 'stros hit 37 HRs with a .227/.308/.491 with a 9.8%/31.8% and was worth 1.7 fWAR. Granted I believe he played LF/1B so there's that consideration but again you're talking roughly an average player here not a star. Chris Davis hit 26 HRs with a .196/.300/.404 triple slash 11.4%/33.0% walk/k rate and was worth 0.5 fWAR again at 1B. Brandon Moss hit 25 with .234/.334/.438 11.6%/26.4% walk/k rate and was worth 2.3 fWAR. Put simply, the players who are successful currently and K at a 30% rate are almost universally walking at a higher rate than Baez. And even then when you talk about those players you're talking about 2-3 fWAR players which is to say above average not "stars." So when we talk about current value, would you say a top 10 prospect is more well thought of than a 2-3 WAR player generally? This is what I mean by his value being the highest now.
The problem for Baez and anyone else who strikes out that much like him is that if you're going to K 180 times in a full season that leaves you very little wiggle room in order to be a high average hitter because you're just not going to often hit for better than a .350 BABIP with .300 being average. And if you're also not someone who walks much that just tanks your OBP which in turn kills your value according to WAR and just in general. Fangraphs doesn't have batted ball data for the minors but if you contrast Baez with say Bryant I have to imagine that Bryant's line drive rate is through the roof. You can sort of see this in his BABIP as it was .367 in AAA this year and has solidly been over .400 at various other stops. The difference here is that even if Bryant's BABIP takes a nose dive to the .300 range in the majors you'd still be talking about a .230-.240 hitter with a .360ish OBP because he's walking at ridiculous rates.
In order to be in that 3-5 WAR range, Baez almost certainly will have to be in the 25-30% K rate range and his walk rate most likely will also need to climb probably to the 8-9% range. If he gets to 25% k rate, then you're talking about 150 K's a season with say 50 walks leaving you say 375 chances with say 125 hits. That'd be roughly a .240/.325ish hitter. You get that with 30-35 HRs especially out of 2B and you'll take that every day. This is where I was hoping his AAA would take him but clearly it went the other way and that's what disappoints me so much about him. If he'd even held steady at the 28.8% k rate he had in AA you could make the obvious argument that it's tougher pitching and he's not getting worse. However in AAA that went up to 30.0% and it ballooned to 41.5% in the majors. His walk rate didn't change much in AAA but fell obviously as he struggled in the majors to 6.6%. The biggest problem for me is cutting 16.5% off your K rate isn't a small feat. People have often brought up Rizzo's first stint as a comparison but the difference here is you're talking about someone who was at 21.5% in AAA and struggled to 30.1% in the majors. Since then it's gone down to a career average of 19.2% or -10.9%. And that's also likely talking best case scenario here. Cutting roughly 11% off Baez still makes him a 31%ish k rate hitter and I just don't see that being that valuable even with his home runs because as I said earlier his average will be killed by the K's and he doesn't walk enough to make up for it. I could easily see him reaching levels similar to Chris Carter has but to me at least that's not as valuable as what you should be able to get out of a top 10 prospect in trade.
Also, keep in mind here I'm just taking for granted that he improves with most of this discussion because I think that is probable. But one could easily make the argument that he wont get better. They've talked about tinkering with his swing to help fix some of his obvious issues. Sometimes that works and sometimes you get 2013 Castro. Either way, to get where the Baez hype has been built up to you're talking about him fundamentally being a different player than he's been while still keeping his immense power. I'm not suggesting it's impossible for him to get there because by all accounts his tools are well regarded. My problem is hoping a player becomes something you haven't seen because you think that's what his tools should allow him to be often just flat out doesn't happen. And even if it does eventually happen, how long does that take? Jose Bautista didn't put it all together until he was 29. Too me there's far to many if's and maybe's with regard to him and if you can turn him into an all-star caliber player today it's well worth it. And to be clear, I wouldn't trade him for Cole Hamels or David Price because while they are good players they help you today not so much 3 years from now when hopefully all the other pieces are in place. Ideally, you'd get someone like Jason Heyward or Strasburg but even someone like Mat Latos who's 27 would be someone I'd consider as a solid #2 on a good team.
JimJohnson
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beckdawg, your posts are way too long. Please consolidate your thoughts into 5 sentences or less and then post.
beckdawg
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Don't read them?
JimJohnson
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You have some good thoughts. But there is no way I'm going to read that long of a post. Other likely will skip it as well.
Just helping you out bro.
theberserkfury
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Don't change a thing, beckdawg... you da man.
brett05
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