It's the age that's the big thing for me. At 23, he's younger than Hendricks who's obviously made his big step forward this year. Additionally, if you compare him to say Aaron Sanchez who's 22 and had roughly a 7 k/9 and 4.5-5.5 bb/9 in AA and AAA this year it's kind of nuts that they cut him lose for next to nothing. At 6.20 k/9 and 2.64 bb/9 it's really not that far off Sanchez's numbers. To be fair, I am a Sanchez hater or more accurately stated I don't see the numbers to back up the supposed scouting of his 3 plus pitches.
Other top 100 pitchers at 23 include Andrew Heaney(5.66/2.61 in 20 MLB innings), Eddie Butler(3.38/5.06 in 5 MLB innings), Alex Meyer(24 and yet to appear in the majors), Mark Appel(yet to appear above AA), Jimmy Nelson(25 7.88/3.15 over 40 MLB innings), Allen Webster(24 and 6.57/6.81 over 28 MLB innings), and Anthony Ranaudo(3.00/6.00 over 6 MLB innings).
Not to over sell him but at this point I'd consider his value of Edwards or Johnson and they gave up so little. That being said, as a numbers guy I'm having trouble seeing where this top 25 status ever came from. His 8.50 k/9 over 50 innings in A as a 19 year old was good but not "amazing." He then posted roughly a 7 k/9 in A+ and AA at 19 and 20. You can argue that given his age that's good. To me his minor league stats make him look like more of a #2. But it does go to show the difference in perception based on scouting. For example take this comparison
Turner in A as 19 year old
54.0 IP 2-3 with a 8.50 k/9 1.50 bb/9 0.67 hr/9 64.5% strand rate and 3.67 ERA 3.28 FIP
Jen-Ho Tseng in A as a 19 year old
81.0 IP 6-1 with a 7.89 k/9 1.22 bb/9 0.44 hr/9 74.2% strand rate and 2.56 ERA 2.83 FIP
After the 2010 season MLB.com had Turner ranked as the #7 overall prospect. BA had him ranked #26. Baseball prospectus had him #23. I get that Tseng doesn't have "amazing" stuff and that's why he's not viewed as highly. And I'm not trying to beleaguer the point about how I feel about Tseng but I feel like Turner is a good illustration of why it's important to consider what the players did rather than just what they might be able to do. I'd argue that Turner was probably ranked too high as most 2/3 type starters end up in the 50 range. On the other hand, as I have argued I think Tseng is underrated.
Either way, between Turner, Tseng, Edwards and Johnson they now have some pretty interesting 2/3 starter options. Duane Underwood might be another name to toss into that list at 19 with 7.55/3.08 rates and a 2.44/4.48 ERA/FIP. He's also got better "stuff." Blackburn, Corey Black, and Rob Zastryzny might also figure into that mix. So, despite the lament some have about the pitching in the system it's really not *that* bad. They just lack a projectable #1 type. But that's the case for what? 20-25 MLB teams?
