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After two seasons of injury-inflicted limbo, it's easy for a jaded NBA fan in Chicago to see this offseason as bittersweet. After winning more regular-season games than any team in the league during Tom Thibodeau's first two seasons as head coach, Chicago's vaunted depth fell victim to cap considerations and an injured knee. The Bulls made the playoffs each of the past two seasons and even won a postseason series, but it was the summer of 2014 that beckoned. This was going to be the time when the Bulls would not only welcome Derrick Rose back into the fold, but they'd be able to surround him with the star power that would propel Chicago into title contention.
The Bulls' offseason strategy drew some mixed reactions. The concern was that Chicago's contingency plan for missing out on Carmelo Anthony just wasn't sexy enough. By focusing on depth rather than star power, the Bulls risked getting stuck on the same plateau they were on before Rose's first knee injury. Good, but not great. It's a scenario we've seen before.
This has indeed been an epic offseason in the NBA, with top teams plummeting and new contenders taking aim at the crown. The two players who finished immediately behind Kevin Durant for tops in the league in wins above replacement (WARP) either changed teams, or soon will. Neither of those players -- LeBron James and Kevin Love -- will join Rose in Chicago. Instead, they will team up in Cleveland, setting up an eventual conference finals showdown with the Bulls that seems every bit as inevitable as the Miami-Indiana series was last season. Plan A didn't happen.
But the Bulls' Plan B included Pau Gasol successfully being wooed from the Lakers, Nikola Mirotic arriving from Spain and Kirk Hinrich sticking around. Aaron Brooks was added to back up Rose. Chicago re-created the depth plan that worked well before. That approach wasn't enough to overcome James in Miami, but there are compelling reasons to believe this time may be different.
Reasons to believe
A basic tenet of NBA analysis is that all teams exist to pursue championships, and strategies that seal a team off from that pursuit must be avoided. When Chicago signed Gasol, the fear was the Bulls had fallen into just such a strategy. But to avoid getting stuck, teams need to not only have a sturdy foundation in place, but they need to have upside on their roster beyond the core players. As the summer has progressed, it's become apparent that may be what's occurred in Chicago. The key developments:
Derrick Rose: Rose is the cornerstone, but after 10 subpar games in two years, he doesn't engender much optimism on the statistical front. His projection is not only less than half of Joakim Noah's, but it's lower than those of Mirotic and Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, Rose is back on the court and drawing plaudits for his performance with Team USA. Rose was worth 16.6 WARP during his last healthy season. While his full recovery might eat into the production of his teammates, it would also considerably boost Chicago's already excellent forecast.
Joakim Noah: For all the caterwauling about Chicago missing out on a second star, we need to remember that Noah was a first-team, All-NBA center last season, the Defensive Player of the Year and ranked 10th in the league in WARP. Chicago's solid early projection is a product of Noah's excellence, and depth. He has become that missing star.
[+] Enlarge
Jack Arent/NBAE via Getty Images
Doug McDermott lived up to his sharp-shooting reputation during the Summer League.
Nikola Mirotic: You want upside? Mirotic was MVP of a high-level European league at 22 years of age. He's long, with inside-outside skills, a reputation for unselfishness and a skill set that is ideally suited to work off Rose. His statistical translations are outstanding. Early SCHOENE has Mirotic at 5.2 WARP in just 25 forecasted minutes per game. That would make him the leading contender for Rookie of the Year.
Summer stars: We just finished watching Bulls first-rounder Doug McDermott light up the Las Vegas Summer League, and second-year wing Tony Snell play like a guy poised for a breakout sophomore season in the same circuit. In Mirotic and McDermott, the Bulls can feature two elite deep shooters who both have a number of value-added aspects to their arsenals. McDermott has the third-highest WARP projection among rookies, and that's in just 20 MPG. And if Snell's improvement is real, Chicago could have all 10 of its rotation players performing better than replacement.
San Antonio Spurs: No one can match the consistency and continuity of the Spurs. Still, San Antonio demonstrated that those traits along with selflessness, depth and coaching can trump star power and win championships. Given the max-level dollars Cleveland will be spending to keep its star trio intact, the Bulls should continue to have the depth and continuity that the Cavaliers will have to sacrifice. And while we're high on new Cavs coach Dave Blatt, Thibodeau is a proven commodity in Chicago.
New pecking order
Before the Love trade moved toward the realm of the real, Chicago appeared to be a bona fide Finals candidate, one of the five most improved teams in the league. The problem is by going LeBron-plus-one, a true powerhouse is forming in Cleveland. James, Love and Kyrie Irving alone accumulated 50 WARP between them a season ago, meaning that even if the rest of the Cleveland roster is merely replacement level, the Cavs would project to win 60 games. And this will be just the first season of Cleveland's new-found excellence. In effect, the vibe in the East could be the same as it's been, with Cleveland and Chicago replacing Miami and Indiana.
Let's be clear: The addition of Love makes Cleveland the clear favorite in the East, and probably in the NBA. The general lack of continuity on the Cavs' roster could be an issue that prevents them from getting past whichever power emerges from the West, and we all remember that it took a full season before the Heat really hit their stride with James. But that team did win its conference. The Bulls, meanwhile, are the clear-cut No. 2 team in the East, a clear rung below the Cavaliers. Yet there is no reason for Chicago to concede anything -- not that Thibodeau would ever let that happen anyway.
Chicago can't match the star power in Cleveland, so perhaps it was best not to try. Alternatively, the Bulls created a deep and versatile roster that combines the certainty of veterans and the upside of youth. The full range of the Bulls' potential outcomes means they haven't consigned themselves to the second tier by any means. In the end, a great new rivalry between Chicago and Cleveland should emerge -- one which may turn out to be more sweet than bitter for the Bulls.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11337607/the-chicago-bulls-contingency-plan-take-far-nba
The Bulls' offseason strategy drew some mixed reactions. The concern was that Chicago's contingency plan for missing out on Carmelo Anthony just wasn't sexy enough. By focusing on depth rather than star power, the Bulls risked getting stuck on the same plateau they were on before Rose's first knee injury. Good, but not great. It's a scenario we've seen before.
This has indeed been an epic offseason in the NBA, with top teams plummeting and new contenders taking aim at the crown. The two players who finished immediately behind Kevin Durant for tops in the league in wins above replacement (WARP) either changed teams, or soon will. Neither of those players -- LeBron James and Kevin Love -- will join Rose in Chicago. Instead, they will team up in Cleveland, setting up an eventual conference finals showdown with the Bulls that seems every bit as inevitable as the Miami-Indiana series was last season. Plan A didn't happen.
But the Bulls' Plan B included Pau Gasol successfully being wooed from the Lakers, Nikola Mirotic arriving from Spain and Kirk Hinrich sticking around. Aaron Brooks was added to back up Rose. Chicago re-created the depth plan that worked well before. That approach wasn't enough to overcome James in Miami, but there are compelling reasons to believe this time may be different.
Reasons to believe
A basic tenet of NBA analysis is that all teams exist to pursue championships, and strategies that seal a team off from that pursuit must be avoided. When Chicago signed Gasol, the fear was the Bulls had fallen into just such a strategy. But to avoid getting stuck, teams need to not only have a sturdy foundation in place, but they need to have upside on their roster beyond the core players. As the summer has progressed, it's become apparent that may be what's occurred in Chicago. The key developments:
Derrick Rose: Rose is the cornerstone, but after 10 subpar games in two years, he doesn't engender much optimism on the statistical front. His projection is not only less than half of Joakim Noah's, but it's lower than those of Mirotic and Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, Rose is back on the court and drawing plaudits for his performance with Team USA. Rose was worth 16.6 WARP during his last healthy season. While his full recovery might eat into the production of his teammates, it would also considerably boost Chicago's already excellent forecast.
Joakim Noah: For all the caterwauling about Chicago missing out on a second star, we need to remember that Noah was a first-team, All-NBA center last season, the Defensive Player of the Year and ranked 10th in the league in WARP. Chicago's solid early projection is a product of Noah's excellence, and depth. He has become that missing star.
[+] Enlarge
Jack Arent/NBAE via Getty Images
Doug McDermott lived up to his sharp-shooting reputation during the Summer League.
Nikola Mirotic: You want upside? Mirotic was MVP of a high-level European league at 22 years of age. He's long, with inside-outside skills, a reputation for unselfishness and a skill set that is ideally suited to work off Rose. His statistical translations are outstanding. Early SCHOENE has Mirotic at 5.2 WARP in just 25 forecasted minutes per game. That would make him the leading contender for Rookie of the Year.
Summer stars: We just finished watching Bulls first-rounder Doug McDermott light up the Las Vegas Summer League, and second-year wing Tony Snell play like a guy poised for a breakout sophomore season in the same circuit. In Mirotic and McDermott, the Bulls can feature two elite deep shooters who both have a number of value-added aspects to their arsenals. McDermott has the third-highest WARP projection among rookies, and that's in just 20 MPG. And if Snell's improvement is real, Chicago could have all 10 of its rotation players performing better than replacement.
San Antonio Spurs: No one can match the consistency and continuity of the Spurs. Still, San Antonio demonstrated that those traits along with selflessness, depth and coaching can trump star power and win championships. Given the max-level dollars Cleveland will be spending to keep its star trio intact, the Bulls should continue to have the depth and continuity that the Cavaliers will have to sacrifice. And while we're high on new Cavs coach Dave Blatt, Thibodeau is a proven commodity in Chicago.
New pecking order
Before the Love trade moved toward the realm of the real, Chicago appeared to be a bona fide Finals candidate, one of the five most improved teams in the league. The problem is by going LeBron-plus-one, a true powerhouse is forming in Cleveland. James, Love and Kyrie Irving alone accumulated 50 WARP between them a season ago, meaning that even if the rest of the Cleveland roster is merely replacement level, the Cavs would project to win 60 games. And this will be just the first season of Cleveland's new-found excellence. In effect, the vibe in the East could be the same as it's been, with Cleveland and Chicago replacing Miami and Indiana.
Let's be clear: The addition of Love makes Cleveland the clear favorite in the East, and probably in the NBA. The general lack of continuity on the Cavs' roster could be an issue that prevents them from getting past whichever power emerges from the West, and we all remember that it took a full season before the Heat really hit their stride with James. But that team did win its conference. The Bulls, meanwhile, are the clear-cut No. 2 team in the East, a clear rung below the Cavaliers. Yet there is no reason for Chicago to concede anything -- not that Thibodeau would ever let that happen anyway.
Chicago can't match the star power in Cleveland, so perhaps it was best not to try. Alternatively, the Bulls created a deep and versatile roster that combines the certainty of veterans and the upside of youth. The full range of the Bulls' potential outcomes means they haven't consigned themselves to the second tier by any means. In the end, a great new rivalry between Chicago and Cleveland should emerge -- one which may turn out to be more sweet than bitter for the Bulls.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11337607/the-chicago-bulls-contingency-plan-take-far-nba
BTW I agree with your last sentence.
