beckdawg
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With I believe 16 games left I feel inclined to talk about next season at the moment. To start with let's look at where the cubs rank in NL stats.
runs/g - 3.77(12th 3.97 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(WAS), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 6th(LAD), and 10th(STL)
HRs - 143(2nd 123 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 6th(SFG), 12th(LAD), 15th(STL)
SBs - 59(12th 83 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 5th(PIT), 7th(WAS), 14th(STL), 15th(SFG)
walks - 383(11th 419 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 7th(STL), 10th(SFG)
k's - 1311(15th 1152 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(STL), 4th(PIT), 5th(LAD), 7th(SFG), 11th(WAS)
BA - .240(13th .249 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 5th(STL), 8th(WAS)
OBP - .298(14th .312 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(PIT), 2nd(LAD), 4th(STL), 6th(WAS), 7th(SFG)
SLG - .385(7th .384 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 4th(LAD), 5th(SFG), 6th(WAS), 10th(STL)
Here's a list of potential FAs.
I think they have to upgrade at C. Castillo is ok especially given his defense but Baker playing 60 or so games killed them hitting below .200. A.J. Pierzynski seems like he would make a ton of sense as a lefty back up catcher who's had playoff experience and is regarded as a team guy AFAIK. He also has a chicago connection from his time with the sox. Ryan Doumit is another option as a switch hitter but he's had a pretty down year.
I think it is pretty safe to assume Olt is a short term guy as a bridge to Bryant whenever they call him up next year and given Olt's defense he's not a bad option as a bench player especially if his .278/.316/.333 19 PA september is a real adjustment and not just sample size. Castillo, Rizzo and Castro seem pretty locked in at their various positions. I think Soler is a lock to start in RF given how well he has played and given they are paying him around $3 mil anyways. So, you're essentially talking about 2B, CF, and LF as possible upgrade positions.
I've said my piece on Baez so I'll leave that alone. But regardless of whether they do try to trade him as I've suggested or whether they do think he can work out of the funk he is in, I really don't see how he can start on the major league team at this point. At the very least, I think he needs maybe half a season at AAA to try and fix the issues he has similar to the way they let Olt go down and work on his issues. Additionally, it's not like they don't have options at 2B between Valbuena, Watkins, Alcantara, and Valaika. Additionally, if Baez is sent down you're talking about Russell and him as potential midseason types so they don't need a star there just someone who wont kill them early in the season. Valbuena in particular would seem to be a very solid option.
So, other than back up catcher the only places I see potential for upgrades are LF and CF. I think Alcantara may end up on the MLB roster next year despite his own struggles. If he hits like he did in AAA then he's an obvious person to keep up but even if he doesn't he gives you a valuable bench player who can play a number of positions. As for OF options the names that come to mind for me are Melky Cabrera, Denards Span, Michael Morse, Norichika Aoki and Nelson Cruz. I think Span in particular makes a crap ton of sense if the Nats don't pick up his option. He plays very good defense in CF and is a very good top of the order hitter. That lets you be very flexible with someone like Alcantara. There's 2B/LF/3B/SS/CF as options for him though as I have mentioned before I would prefer him to just stick at one position. Aoki if Span does get picked up option wise would work on a similar mindset. Melky also makes a lot of sense but given he's likely to be the premier OF bat on the market opposite Cruz he's going to be pricey and I'm not sure if you can get him and pitching. It might be one or the other. And with Coghlan playing well in LF if you got Span/Aoki you could have Alcantara, Cog, and Sweeney/Ruggiano as options.
Pitching stats
I'm not going to bother and look at the starters because with Hammel and Shark gone the numbers don't mean a lot anymore in comparison to the rest of the league. Additionally, it's likely that Jackson and Wood could end up out of the line up which would basically leave Arrieta the only one from those numbers still around. Relievers on the other hand are some what likely to be similar.
ERA - 3.65(10th 3.51 is average)
FIP - 3.31(5th 3.52 is average)
xFIP - 3.58(6th 3.61 is average)
k/9 - 8.69(9th 8.62 is average)
bb/9 - 3.45(8th 3.36 is average)
From a bullpen perspective they arguably should be better given their FIP. Relievers in general are very volatile so it's hard to predict year to year. Ramirez has been stellar with a 1.38 ERA. Strop walks too many people but his 2.32 ERA is also very good. Rondon's 2.60 ERA also good. Wright and Grimm have been average but good enough. Assuming you go with 12 pitchers on the roster and 5 of those being starters and also assuming those players again play well you're talking about needing 2 more guys out of the pen. Grimm can replace Villanueva as a long relief type so it doesn't have to be that type for one of the last two. You also have Straily, Jokisch, Turner, Beeler, Doubront and hell even Jackson/Wood if you can't get rid of them or don't start them for that sort of option. You also have numerous power arms that were at AAA this year between Vizcaino, Armando Rivero, Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, Marcus Hatley, Marcos Mateo, and Alberto Cabrera so it really doesn't seem like that's an area they have to address in FA.
From a starter standpoint, I think Arrieta and Hendricks are the only two locks. I would put Wada in there as well but given his age(will be 34) I think it's hard to consider him a lock. My opinion would be that Wada, Wood, Jackson, Doubront, Straily, Turner, and maybe Beeler are competing for the #5. It might be them competing for 4 and 5 but I think ideally the cubs would like to pick up two starters. If you pair a Lester/Scherzer as your #1 option with a Shields/Liriano/Yovani Gallardo type as your #2 option that would seem like a pretty solid rotation.
Conservatively, if we say the cubs have $50 mil to spend(I think that's low end) I think you're looking at something like $25 mil/year for a Lester/Scherzer type. You're probably talking $15-18 mil/year(might be a bit high here but its hard to say who will be coveted) for a second starter. I think you can get a decent backup C for $3-5 mil. I think a Span/Aoki type would cost you $7-10 mil. Top end you're talking about around $58 mil there. That much might push them closer to $120 mil opening day payroll but they have suggested they have some flexibility from last year and they should get a bit more from the WGN tv contract. Upping payroll max by about $10 mil doesn't seem that crazy.
runs/g - 3.77(12th 3.97 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(WAS), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 6th(LAD), and 10th(STL)
HRs - 143(2nd 123 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 6th(SFG), 12th(LAD), 15th(STL)
SBs - 59(12th 83 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 5th(PIT), 7th(WAS), 14th(STL), 15th(SFG)
walks - 383(11th 419 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 7th(STL), 10th(SFG)
k's - 1311(15th 1152 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(STL), 4th(PIT), 5th(LAD), 7th(SFG), 11th(WAS)
BA - .240(13th .249 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 5th(STL), 8th(WAS)
OBP - .298(14th .312 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(PIT), 2nd(LAD), 4th(STL), 6th(WAS), 7th(SFG)
SLG - .385(7th .384 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 4th(LAD), 5th(SFG), 6th(WAS), 10th(STL)
Here's a list of potential FAs.
I think they have to upgrade at C. Castillo is ok especially given his defense but Baker playing 60 or so games killed them hitting below .200. A.J. Pierzynski seems like he would make a ton of sense as a lefty back up catcher who's had playoff experience and is regarded as a team guy AFAIK. He also has a chicago connection from his time with the sox. Ryan Doumit is another option as a switch hitter but he's had a pretty down year.
I think it is pretty safe to assume Olt is a short term guy as a bridge to Bryant whenever they call him up next year and given Olt's defense he's not a bad option as a bench player especially if his .278/.316/.333 19 PA september is a real adjustment and not just sample size. Castillo, Rizzo and Castro seem pretty locked in at their various positions. I think Soler is a lock to start in RF given how well he has played and given they are paying him around $3 mil anyways. So, you're essentially talking about 2B, CF, and LF as possible upgrade positions.
I've said my piece on Baez so I'll leave that alone. But regardless of whether they do try to trade him as I've suggested or whether they do think he can work out of the funk he is in, I really don't see how he can start on the major league team at this point. At the very least, I think he needs maybe half a season at AAA to try and fix the issues he has similar to the way they let Olt go down and work on his issues. Additionally, it's not like they don't have options at 2B between Valbuena, Watkins, Alcantara, and Valaika. Additionally, if Baez is sent down you're talking about Russell and him as potential midseason types so they don't need a star there just someone who wont kill them early in the season. Valbuena in particular would seem to be a very solid option.
So, other than back up catcher the only places I see potential for upgrades are LF and CF. I think Alcantara may end up on the MLB roster next year despite his own struggles. If he hits like he did in AAA then he's an obvious person to keep up but even if he doesn't he gives you a valuable bench player who can play a number of positions. As for OF options the names that come to mind for me are Melky Cabrera, Denards Span, Michael Morse, Norichika Aoki and Nelson Cruz. I think Span in particular makes a crap ton of sense if the Nats don't pick up his option. He plays very good defense in CF and is a very good top of the order hitter. That lets you be very flexible with someone like Alcantara. There's 2B/LF/3B/SS/CF as options for him though as I have mentioned before I would prefer him to just stick at one position. Aoki if Span does get picked up option wise would work on a similar mindset. Melky also makes a lot of sense but given he's likely to be the premier OF bat on the market opposite Cruz he's going to be pricey and I'm not sure if you can get him and pitching. It might be one or the other. And with Coghlan playing well in LF if you got Span/Aoki you could have Alcantara, Cog, and Sweeney/Ruggiano as options.
Pitching stats
I'm not going to bother and look at the starters because with Hammel and Shark gone the numbers don't mean a lot anymore in comparison to the rest of the league. Additionally, it's likely that Jackson and Wood could end up out of the line up which would basically leave Arrieta the only one from those numbers still around. Relievers on the other hand are some what likely to be similar.
ERA - 3.65(10th 3.51 is average)
FIP - 3.31(5th 3.52 is average)
xFIP - 3.58(6th 3.61 is average)
k/9 - 8.69(9th 8.62 is average)
bb/9 - 3.45(8th 3.36 is average)
From a bullpen perspective they arguably should be better given their FIP. Relievers in general are very volatile so it's hard to predict year to year. Ramirez has been stellar with a 1.38 ERA. Strop walks too many people but his 2.32 ERA is also very good. Rondon's 2.60 ERA also good. Wright and Grimm have been average but good enough. Assuming you go with 12 pitchers on the roster and 5 of those being starters and also assuming those players again play well you're talking about needing 2 more guys out of the pen. Grimm can replace Villanueva as a long relief type so it doesn't have to be that type for one of the last two. You also have Straily, Jokisch, Turner, Beeler, Doubront and hell even Jackson/Wood if you can't get rid of them or don't start them for that sort of option. You also have numerous power arms that were at AAA this year between Vizcaino, Armando Rivero, Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, Marcus Hatley, Marcos Mateo, and Alberto Cabrera so it really doesn't seem like that's an area they have to address in FA.
From a starter standpoint, I think Arrieta and Hendricks are the only two locks. I would put Wada in there as well but given his age(will be 34) I think it's hard to consider him a lock. My opinion would be that Wada, Wood, Jackson, Doubront, Straily, Turner, and maybe Beeler are competing for the #5. It might be them competing for 4 and 5 but I think ideally the cubs would like to pick up two starters. If you pair a Lester/Scherzer as your #1 option with a Shields/Liriano/Yovani Gallardo type as your #2 option that would seem like a pretty solid rotation.
Conservatively, if we say the cubs have $50 mil to spend(I think that's low end) I think you're looking at something like $25 mil/year for a Lester/Scherzer type. You're probably talking $15-18 mil/year(might be a bit high here but its hard to say who will be coveted) for a second starter. I think you can get a decent backup C for $3-5 mil. I think a Span/Aoki type would cost you $7-10 mil. Top end you're talking about around $58 mil there. That much might push them closer to $120 mil opening day payroll but they have suggested they have some flexibility from last year and they should get a bit more from the WGN tv contract. Upping payroll max by about $10 mil doesn't seem that crazy.