2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

beckdawg

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With I believe 16 games left I feel inclined to talk about next season at the moment. To start with let's look at where the cubs rank in NL stats.

runs/g - 3.77(12th 3.97 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(WAS), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 6th(LAD), and 10th(STL)
HRs - 143(2nd 123 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 6th(SFG), 12th(LAD), 15th(STL)
SBs - 59(12th 83 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 5th(PIT), 7th(WAS), 14th(STL), 15th(SFG)
walks - 383(11th 419 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 5th(WAS), 7th(STL), 10th(SFG)
k's - 1311(15th 1152 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(STL), 4th(PIT), 5th(LAD), 7th(SFG), 11th(WAS)
BA - .240(13th .249 is average) playoff candidates rank 2nd(LAD), 3rd(PIT), 4th(SFG), 5th(STL), 8th(WAS)
OBP - .298(14th .312 is average) playoff candidates rank 1st(PIT), 2nd(LAD), 4th(STL), 6th(WAS), 7th(SFG)
SLG - .385(7th .384 is average) playoff candidates rank 3rd(PIT), 4th(LAD), 5th(SFG), 6th(WAS), 10th(STL)

Here's a list of potential FAs.

I think they have to upgrade at C. Castillo is ok especially given his defense but Baker playing 60 or so games killed them hitting below .200. A.J. Pierzynski seems like he would make a ton of sense as a lefty back up catcher who's had playoff experience and is regarded as a team guy AFAIK. He also has a chicago connection from his time with the sox. Ryan Doumit is another option as a switch hitter but he's had a pretty down year.

I think it is pretty safe to assume Olt is a short term guy as a bridge to Bryant whenever they call him up next year and given Olt's defense he's not a bad option as a bench player especially if his .278/.316/.333 19 PA september is a real adjustment and not just sample size. Castillo, Rizzo and Castro seem pretty locked in at their various positions. I think Soler is a lock to start in RF given how well he has played and given they are paying him around $3 mil anyways. So, you're essentially talking about 2B, CF, and LF as possible upgrade positions.

I've said my piece on Baez so I'll leave that alone. But regardless of whether they do try to trade him as I've suggested or whether they do think he can work out of the funk he is in, I really don't see how he can start on the major league team at this point. At the very least, I think he needs maybe half a season at AAA to try and fix the issues he has similar to the way they let Olt go down and work on his issues. Additionally, it's not like they don't have options at 2B between Valbuena, Watkins, Alcantara, and Valaika. Additionally, if Baez is sent down you're talking about Russell and him as potential midseason types so they don't need a star there just someone who wont kill them early in the season. Valbuena in particular would seem to be a very solid option.

So, other than back up catcher the only places I see potential for upgrades are LF and CF. I think Alcantara may end up on the MLB roster next year despite his own struggles. If he hits like he did in AAA then he's an obvious person to keep up but even if he doesn't he gives you a valuable bench player who can play a number of positions. As for OF options the names that come to mind for me are Melky Cabrera, Denards Span, Michael Morse, Norichika Aoki and Nelson Cruz. I think Span in particular makes a crap ton of sense if the Nats don't pick up his option. He plays very good defense in CF and is a very good top of the order hitter. That lets you be very flexible with someone like Alcantara. There's 2B/LF/3B/SS/CF as options for him though as I have mentioned before I would prefer him to just stick at one position. Aoki if Span does get picked up option wise would work on a similar mindset. Melky also makes a lot of sense but given he's likely to be the premier OF bat on the market opposite Cruz he's going to be pricey and I'm not sure if you can get him and pitching. It might be one or the other. And with Coghlan playing well in LF if you got Span/Aoki you could have Alcantara, Cog, and Sweeney/Ruggiano as options.

Pitching stats
I'm not going to bother and look at the starters because with Hammel and Shark gone the numbers don't mean a lot anymore in comparison to the rest of the league. Additionally, it's likely that Jackson and Wood could end up out of the line up which would basically leave Arrieta the only one from those numbers still around. Relievers on the other hand are some what likely to be similar.

ERA - 3.65(10th 3.51 is average)
FIP - 3.31(5th 3.52 is average)
xFIP - 3.58(6th 3.61 is average)
k/9 - 8.69(9th 8.62 is average)
bb/9 - 3.45(8th 3.36 is average)

From a bullpen perspective they arguably should be better given their FIP. Relievers in general are very volatile so it's hard to predict year to year. Ramirez has been stellar with a 1.38 ERA. Strop walks too many people but his 2.32 ERA is also very good. Rondon's 2.60 ERA also good. Wright and Grimm have been average but good enough. Assuming you go with 12 pitchers on the roster and 5 of those being starters and also assuming those players again play well you're talking about needing 2 more guys out of the pen. Grimm can replace Villanueva as a long relief type so it doesn't have to be that type for one of the last two. You also have Straily, Jokisch, Turner, Beeler, Doubront and hell even Jackson/Wood if you can't get rid of them or don't start them for that sort of option. You also have numerous power arms that were at AAA this year between Vizcaino, Armando Rivero, Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, Marcus Hatley, Marcos Mateo, and Alberto Cabrera so it really doesn't seem like that's an area they have to address in FA.

From a starter standpoint, I think Arrieta and Hendricks are the only two locks. I would put Wada in there as well but given his age(will be 34) I think it's hard to consider him a lock. My opinion would be that Wada, Wood, Jackson, Doubront, Straily, Turner, and maybe Beeler are competing for the #5. It might be them competing for 4 and 5 but I think ideally the cubs would like to pick up two starters. If you pair a Lester/Scherzer as your #1 option with a Shields/Liriano/Yovani Gallardo type as your #2 option that would seem like a pretty solid rotation.

Conservatively, if we say the cubs have $50 mil to spend(I think that's low end) I think you're looking at something like $25 mil/year for a Lester/Scherzer type. You're probably talking $15-18 mil/year(might be a bit high here but its hard to say who will be coveted) for a second starter. I think you can get a decent backup C for $3-5 mil. I think a Span/Aoki type would cost you $7-10 mil. Top end you're talking about around $58 mil there. That much might push them closer to $120 mil opening day payroll but they have suggested they have some flexibility from last year and they should get a bit more from the WGN tv contract. Upping payroll max by about $10 mil doesn't seem that crazy.
 

SilenceS

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I still think you pencil in Baez at second and Alcantara in CF. AAA would do very little for Baez. He needs to see major league pitching and learn to channel his aggressiveness. He has things to work on, but he is also not controlling the plate like he can when he is zoned in. If this was first half of the season, I can see them sending him down to work on things there. I dont see them doing that when he has a whole off season to work on what he needs to work on. I would think him and Manny are going to become best friends in the off season. 200 at bats as a 21 year old kid isnt enough to deter the Cubs of their plan with him. I would say the same about Alcantara. I can see them signing a bat to play left and signing two pitchers. One a middle of the rotation inning eaters type or a Madea type. Then, I see them going after one of the big fish. As I said in another thread, I dont see much of a match with Cabrera. He is 30 and is looking for his final big pay day. the Jays are going to give him a qualifying offer and his bat is just like Castros but he doesnt play a premium defensive position. Add in his past Ped use. Being hurt for half the season last year and now getting hurt in the final month. I just dont see a match for the type of contract he is going to be looking for.
 

beckdawg

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I still think you pencil in Baez at second and Alcantara in CF. AAA would do very little for Baez. He needs to see major league pitching and learn to channel his aggressiveness. He has things to work on, but he is also not controlling the plate like he can when he is zoned in.

I can see where you're coming from but I just don't think you can get what you're getting now for 2 months or however long it would be to start next year. Maybe he rakes out of spring training and it is an easy decision. I think that's especially true if they intend to continue hitting him in the 2 hole because you're throwing away a lot of at bats if he's bad. I would compare it to what Barney gave you only Barney was hitting pretty low in the order. Again, that's dependent on him hitting like he is now and not what people think he can be. Just saying that if he's not hitting well in spring training I'm not sure how you can realistically let him go given what we're currently seeing. People can say there's nothing left for him in AAA but I'm not sure that's true. He never really dominated that level. Sure he hit a lot of homers but this is Baez we're talking about here. His potential is 40's+ and he only hit 26. Additionally, if you look at his triple slash it was .260/.323/.510. The slugging is obviously nice but that's sort of to be expected given his power. Comparatively, if you look at a similar level prospect in Bryant he hit .295/.418/.619. That's not to crap on Baez as I can be prone to do but just to say there's a lot of room to grow. Baez just isn't going to be a .400 OBP and he's not going to hit .300. But something like .280-.290 with a .350-.360 OBP would still be room to grow.
 

CSF77

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I would lose Wood and Jackson to start. Felix and Turner would be safe place holders. Wada the whole age thing is over played. It comes down to getting outs and he has done that.

Hitting:

last 30 days:

Baez: 113 AB's. 52 SO 16 hits, 10 BB. He has sucked. He needs more time to develop.

Alcantara: 111 AB's: 39 SO's. 21 hits 5 BB. He needs to draw BB bottom line here.

Coghlan 107 AB 26 SO 26 hits 7 BB I could see a upg in LF.

Valbuena: 96 AB 27 hits 20 SO 7 BB little better than Coghlan over the last month.

Castillo 73 AB 18 hits 16 SO 4 BB.

There is a trend going on here all are under 10% BB rate. Baez is the closest but he is SO at 46% so it matters little.

If I had to make an early call I believe Baez will get past this. His BB% has been decent and when he starts to cut down on his SO's it will become more noticeable.

Soler: 45 AB 16 hits, 12 SO 2 BB. Small sample size right now. Too early to make a call.

Olt: 18 AB 5 hits 7 SO 1 BB. We will see how he turns out.


I would run out:
Castro SS
Valbuena 2B
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Olt 3B
Alcantara CF
? LF
Castillo C

Not getting into who is playing LF. It matters little right now. Just right now these guys seem more major league ready and the others need more maturing.

They should have promoted Bryant with the kids but as we have seen they are scared of losing service time and there is a 100% chance he will be a super 2.
 

beckdawg

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I would lose Wood and Jackson to start. Felix and Turner would be safe place holders. Wada the whole age thing is over played. It comes down to getting outs and he has done that.

I'm not sure it is that easy. And if they are forced to eat a ton of Jackson's deal that's in theory less money to spend next off season.

If I had to make an early call I believe Baez will get past this. His BB% has been decent and when he starts to cut down on his SO's it will become more noticeable.

The counter argument here is that pitchers aren't throwing him strikes comparative to other hitters. So, the fact that they are avoiding his strike zone means he's going to walk more. If nothing else that's what bothers me about his K's because he should know that's what they are trying to do to him. I mean at the moment you're talking about 38.0% of pitches are in the zone for him. If he qualified in PAs that would be the second lowest in the majors behind Pablo Sandoval at 35.9%. Arguably he should have a rather great walk rate.
 

JP Hochbaum

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There is no way we sign anyone to more than a one year deal for a position player, so doubtful we get anyone better than average there.

The focus in the offseason will be Lester, and if that works out maybe PRice the following year.

We won't be flipping anyone next trade deadline but we will be signing similar type players as they could be let go in FA the following year and not effect payroll.
 

chibears55

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There no way Baez starts 2015 back in AAA, despite his struggle.

Now if he still struggling come may/june, then yes he should go back down.

I really don't see them doing much this off season as far as adding position players, I think their pretty content on building their starting 8 with the players in their system for 2015.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they decided to go with coghlin in LF if they don't get the Japanese kid Tomas.

I think for 2015 they will open the season like this..

C. Castillo 1B Rizzo 2B Baez SS Castro 3B Olt/Valbuena
LF Coghlin CF Alcantara RF Soler

Bryant will probably get the call up for 3B in May

I can see them going hard for Lester and if they don't get him then possibly Maeda.. I do see them adding at least 1 FA starter to go with Arrieta and Hendricks and possibly a 2nd one if their able to move one or both of Wood and Jackson. I think they might give Wood another chance to bounce back.
 

JZsportsfan

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To really become competitive. Have to sign Lester to replace Jackson. Then trade Wood (or hope he returns to 2013 form).

A rotation of

Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Wada ?
Turner ?
Dubront ?
Wood?

It is at least a respectable rotation. As for the positional players I would just put Bryant in LF, and have Valbuena or Olt play 3B for now. This is assuming they keep all their SS. Obviously if they trade a SS, Bryant takes over at 3B and perhaps sign a guy for a 1-year deal in LF. I don't know if I want Coghlan to have a starting gig. Would love to have him back as a #4 OF though. Overall a 1 year upgrade at LF, and C would be ideal but it will be hard to sign a significant upgrade to a 1 year deal. Hoping Schwarber does well this winter as a C.
 

daddies3angels

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Do I think Ricketts will spend money?


[video=youtube;3zNjQecyjE8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zNjQecyjE8[/video]
 

CSF77

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I'm not sure it is that easy. And if they are forced to eat a ton of Jackson's deal that's in theory less money to spend next off season.

Wood all they have to do is not offer him Arb. 5 mil it too much to pay for that crap.

They ate Z's 18 mil for a turd of a return. I'm predicting Jackson for Brown. Cubs pay Brown's arb case and diff on Jackson this year. Next year they could split it 5.5 mil each. Would be a bargain.

I would then make a opening day line up of:
SS Castro
2B Valbuena
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
LF Brown
3B Olt
CF Alcantara
C Castillo

Not much better than now but Brown has the chance of bouncing back thus adding a 2nd LH bat in the middle.


The counter argument here is that pitchers aren't throwing him strikes comparative to other hitters. So, the fact that they are avoiding his strike zone means he's going to walk more. If nothing else that's what bothers me about his K's because he should know that's what they are trying to do to him. I mean at the moment you're talking about 38.0% of pitches are in the zone for him. If he qualified in PAs that would be the second lowest in the majors behind Pablo Sandoval at 35.9%. Arguably he should have a rather great walk rate.

BB ration factors into knowing the strike zone. Baez waits for his pitch. IIR he was up with Valbuena with pitches seen per at bat. The difference is to be honest experience. I think he has the basic skill set to be good there. He just needs more time to adjust.

That is why I want him back at Iowa when the season starts. He is not ready and to be honesdt he was just starting to hit AAA pitching and the jump is a bit bigger than that.

He needs to stop the movement and just focus on timing mechanics before the pitch. His bat speed has carried him through but in the bigs every one is talented. He needs to perfect his approach at the plate and learn how to adjust on each pitch.
 

JZsportsfan

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What do you think a reasonable return for Stanton would be? Almora, Castro/Baez, and Schwarber?
 

SilenceS

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What do you think a reasonable return for Stanton would be? Almora, Castro/Baez, and Schwarber?

I may be crazy but I am very skeptical of Stanton staying healthy. I know the other day was a freak accident but he has knee issues and it scares me


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Parade_Rain

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My favorite teams
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What do you think a reasonable return for Stanton would be? Almora, Castro/Baez, and Schwarber?
You're wanting to trade away a 3x All Star and 2 top prospects for a guy who may never play well in the show again due to an injury?
 

beckdawg

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I may be crazy but I am very skeptical of Stanton staying healthy. I know the other day was a freak accident but he has knee issues and it scares me


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I've heard a lot of mention about his past injuries limiting him to 1B in the nearish future.
 

chibears55

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What do you think a reasonable return for Stanton would be? Almora, Castro/Baez, and Schwarber?
Thought I just heard the Marlins were going to offer him a multi yr contract this off season



Edit: found it

The*Marlins*plan to*offer*Giancarlo Stanton*a deal that would make him the highest-paid player in team history,*according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com*reported*back in August that Miami would try to lock up its 24-year-old star for the long term, though the team was not necessarily optimistic of reaching agreement. For his part, Stanton tells Nightengale that he is willing to hear offers, but still wants to see*“some progression moving forward.”“It will be interesting to hear what they have to say when the time comes,”*he said,*“but right now, I’m not worrying about it. I mean, we’re still in this season. When this season is over, then we can start thinking about 2015.”


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/giancarlo-stanton
 

JZsportsfan

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You're wanting to trade away a 3x All Star and 2 top prospects for a guy who may never play well in the show again due to an injury?

Yes. Almora is far from a given, and Schwarber is still a couple years away from having any impact. Castro although a very good young player, starts at a position of surplus for the Cubs. Stanton is the best player in the NL. I think he will recover from his recent injury just fine.
Thought I just heard the Marlins were going to offer him a multi yr contract this off season

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/giancarlo-stanton

Doubt he signs it though. They won't compete with what the Yankees or Cubs could offer him
 

chibears55

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Yes. Almora is far from a given, and Schwarber is still a couple years away from having any impact. Castro although a very good young player, starts at a position of surplus for the Cubs. Stanton is the best player in the NL. I think he will recover from his recent injury just fine.


Doubt he signs it though. They won't compete with what the Yankees or Cubs could offer him
Ok.. and the cubs would wait til he a FA before they trade multiple top players for him
 

JZsportsfan

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Ok.. and the cubs would wait til he a FA before they trade multiple top players for him

Yes, but eventually they have to stop waiting for every target to hit FA. Not saying they do it, was just curious as to what people perceived his value to be
 

Boobaby1

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Ok.. and the cubs would wait til he a FA before they trade multiple top players for him

If he hits free agency, the Cubs will never get him because they don't offer what the big boys do which is boatloads of money, years, and no-trade clauses.

The only way the Cubs ever get him (if they want him) is via the trade route.
 

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