2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

beckdawg

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Vogelbach's walk/k rates suggest someone who will be a decent hitter at the major league level. The biggest issue for him will be position because some don't view him even as a 1B. That being said, most scouts view him as having at least average MLB player potential.
 

CSF77

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Just because Schawarber hit 10 homers in 160 ABs does not mean he will continue to hit homers at the same rate. Odds are he is not going to be close to a 40 HR hitter. HR ratios are not constant in that small of a sample, not to mention it is only a piece of the puzzle when determining the overall makeup of a hitter, not the end all be all. That's the same thinking that had some people thinking Matt Murton would be a power hitter when he first came up. Look, I am totally with you about Vogelbach being a question mark and needing to hit more to be a useful player because of his other attributes. All I am saying is that I think his performance next year will be a better indicator of his future performance. I think you underrate the effect of hitting in the FSL. Look at this, http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130225&content_id=41998650&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_share. The FSL is the worst full season league to hit in terms of power. You say his HR rate was poor, but it was still one of the best in the FSL among players who played there the majority of the season. Actually if you break Vogelbach's season into first half and second half, his HR rate doubled the second half from the first half. Is that just noise or did he figure things out? Let's see what he does next year.

As I said. He is limited by his D. He is a DH competing against aging vets looking to end their careers.

You know how rare it is for a young bat to break in at DH...Even 1B is rare with aging players IE Pujos etc getting pushed over. Rizzo has GG quality D. That is why he is there.

\Again he is a limited player. Yes his SO/BB ratios are good but still the situation stands.

The only way this changes is if he bangs out 30 dinngers next year at AA. Then teams will start to take notice. Right now he is on no ones radar.
 

CSF77

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Speak of the devil....Welcome back Rizzo...#31
 

CSF77

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NL Central Notes: Cubs, Castillo, Martin, Bourjos
By Steve Adams [September 16, 2014 at 9:16am CDT]
Cubs catcher Welington Castillo wants to be part of the future in Chicago, but he understands that in order for that to happen he likely has some more improvement to do, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Castillo, 27, is entering his prime-age seasons but doesn’t hear his name mentioned alongside younger core players like Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro. Castillo specifically mentions that he recognizes the fact that baseball is a business and he can’t assume that he will be in a starting role. Cubs GM Jed Hoyer again said to Wittenmyer that the team plans to add at least one everyday veteran this winter, leading Wittenmyer to speculate on Russell Martin, who would give the Cubs a major defensive boost behind the plate. While catching coach Mike Borzello feels that Castillo is “the best in the business” at blocking pitches, Castillo ranks at the bottom of Baseball Prospectus’ Blocking Runs Added stat and ranks 72nd among 97 catchers in extra strikes via pitch framing (also via B-Pro). Hoyer, however, did give Castillo a vote of confidence: “I really believe in Welly. … He doesn’t get mentioned a lot when we talk about our established young veterans, but he can be in that mix as well.”

Here’s more from the NL Central…

ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers also has quotes from Hoyer on his desire for veteran leadership, and Rogers wonders if the club would pursue a veteran such as Jonny Gomes to help out in left field. While he notes that Gomes, of course, wouldn’t be an everyday player, “a quasi-starter who has winning experience might be the best option” given the lack of starting-caliber bats at positions of need for the Cubs, Rogers opines. He, too, notes that Martin would be a good fit in Chicago, though.
Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks at the extraordinary preparation and conditioning that have contributed to Russell Martin‘s brilliant season. Brink spoke to Martin’s coaches and teammates about what he means to the club, with GM Neal Huntington stating that the club is going to do everything it can to re-sign its catcher. Perhaps most interesting, however, is the fact that Brink notes that the Pirates offered Martin a two-year, $17MM deal and a three-year, $21MM deal when signing him prior to the 2013 season. Martin explains to Brink that he didn’t want to sign for three years, because he felt he could improve his stock on a two-year pact, which he has done in dramatic fashion.
One veteran scout tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Cardinals outfielder Peter Bourjos is the best defensive center fielder he’s seen in 38 years as a scout. Bourjos and Randal Grichuk were acquired from the Angels with the idea that one of them would be the team’s everyday center fielder in 2015, writes Hummel, but Jon Jay‘s solid offense has muddied the picture and left the Cardinals with choices to make. Bourjos has hit better of late, boosting his season batting line to .241/.305/.367, and he drew praise from manager Mike Matheny as well. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cardinals decide to proceed, not only in the next few weeks, but in the offseason as well.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/nl-central-notes-cubs-castillo-martin-bourjos.html
 

CSF77

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Was wondering. Colby Rasmus in LF? I believe he would be up for a 1 year deal to establish value.

His career 162 avg is: .246/.314/.438 24 HR 72 RBI.

If they added him then I'm thinking of a line up like:

SS: Castro (Replaced by Russell)
CF: Alcantara
1B Rizzo
RF: Soler
LF: Rasmus
2B: Baez
3B: Valbuena
C: Castillo

I don't think they will spend on a C right after dedicating a draft on 2 and adding another one after. Makes little sense to do that.

I believe after getting burnt on Schierholtz and Sweeney this year I doubt they are going to trust Coghlan's resurgence as being long term sustainable.
 

CSF77

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By Phil Rogers / MLB.com | @philgrogers | 6:22 PM ET + 0 COMMENTS
CHICAGO -- As baffling as it was for Cincinnati Reds hitters to anticipate what was coming from Jake Arrieta, some things were clear watching the Cubs on Tuesday night.

As the third season under the watch of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod ends, you can see where the road they have so painfully cleared is leading. It may not be all downhill from here, but the fun is definitely coming back for fans of Major League Baseball's most long-suffering franchise.
"We're right there," Arrieta said. "I think it's obvious for the guys in the clubhouse. A lot of the young guys know there are adjustments that have to be made moving forward, which is just part of it. The transition from Triple-A to the big leagues is the biggest jump in all of sports. ... You're going to take your lumps and if you can stay even keel, be the same guy on a daily basis, put your work in with the ability you have, the talent, it's going to pan out. We have a lot of high-quality guys."
While the development of prospects like Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara has been encouraging, the emergence of the 28-year-old Arrieta has been just as significant in positioning the Cubs to view themselves as a 2015 surprise team and a definite contender by 2016.
Their viability in the immediate future is at least somewhat dependent on acquiring a top starter this offseason -- free agents Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields and Kenta Maeda (who must go through the posting process in Japan) would fill that bill -- but Arrieta continues to show that he's capable of becoming a No. 1 starter.
Less than 15 months ago, Arrieta was discarded by the Baltimore Orioles in a rental trade for Scott Feldman. Now he's ready to be a rotation cornerstone. You can call him an ace if you want to.
"It's not going to frighten me, if that's what you're asking," said Arrieta, who was a fifth-round pick out of TCU in 2007. "It is what it is. I've overcome a lot of things in my career, started to establish myself, put myself in a position like this. That's kind of the territory I'm in. I welcome it."
Arrieta, who is 9-5 with a 2.65 ERA in 24 starts, used his mid-90s fastball and the electrifying movement of his pitches to mount his third significant bid for a no-hitter Tuesday. Todd Hollandsworth, the MLB Network Radio host who doubles as a Cubs analyst, said Arrieta was making the baseball move like a Wiffle ball, and that's an apt description.
While his old team was in the process of clinching the American League East, Arrieta struck out a career-high 13 in a one-hit shutout, with Brandon Phillips' one-out double in the eighth coming on the only one of 110 pitches that Arrieta would want back.
"The movement is reflected in the body language of the hitters," Cubs manager Rick Renteria said. "You see some of the swings these guys take, it tells you."
Arrieta got 18 swinging strikes overall, including seven to finish off hitters. But the elusive nature of his pitches was as evident on some takes as the futile swings.
After Phillips' double in the eighth, which was just beyond the reach of a diving Matt Szczur, and getting Chris Heisey on a popup, Arrieta fell behind Ramon Santiago 3-0. The Cincinnati infielder took the next three pitches, all of which came clattering into umpire Mike Everitt's zone for called strikes.
"I was able to come out and pound everything down in the strike zone," Arrieta said. "When I missed, I missed out of the strike zone, not over the heart of the plate. If you want to have success at a high level, to pitch games like that, that's what you've got to do."
Arrieta had taken a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Reds on June 24 at Wrigley and came back six days later to get a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Because he opened the season on the disabled list with a shoulder that was sore from his constant workouts throughout the offseason, Arrieta is just shy of being an ERA qualifier. Among qualifiers, his 1.02 WHIP would rank third in the NL, behind Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto; his ratio of 9.44 strikeouts per nine innings would also be third, behind Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg.
Arrieta's sixth in the NL in WAR, joining the Nationals' Tanner Roark as a fresh face on a list topped by Kershaw, Cueto, Cole Hamels and Adam Wainwright. That's excellent company to keep.
This isn't the first time in the Epstein regime that the Cubs have had a top pitcher. His presence made it easier to trade Jeff Samardzija to the A's, after Samardzija had turned down long-term contracts, and that deal brought the Cubs two more highly regarded prospects in shortstop Addison Russell (ETA late 2015) and outfielder Billy McKinney (ETA late 2016).
Even without Samardzija, the Cubs are closer to having a solid rotation than you might think. Dartmouth product Kyle Hendricks has outperformed expectations in going 6-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 11 big league starts entering Wednesday, Japanese lefty Tsuyoshi Wada has pitched like a keeper and veterans Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood join midseason acquisitions Felix Doubront, Jacob Turner and Dan Straily in adding depth.
This might be a good time to point out that none of the guys named above -- Arrieta included -- have compiled the long track record of success that makes them truly known commodities.
But like his franchise, Arrieta is announcing his presence. Renteria believes it's only a matter of time until he finishes off one of these no-hitters, and he seems to as well.
"I think I'll be able to put myself in these type situations," Arrieta said. "Obviously not on a game-to-game basis. This game has a strange way of teaching you lessons, whether it's something like this [on Tuesday] or the game in Colorado where I gave up nine runs, there's always something to learn, always a way to benefit from it. I just continue to grind, put in the work and the time and hopefully [can] be in these situations again."
This might have been the last time he's in one for a last-place team.
Phil Rogers is a columnist for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/...ieta-looks-like-pitching-cornerstone-for-cubs
 

CSF77

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2015 obligations:
E. Jax: 11 mil
Castro: 6.857 mil
Rizzo: 5.286 mil
Soler: 2.667 mil
Sweeney 1.5 .il
Fuji: .5 mil buy out.
Veras: 150k pay off

Arb cases:
Wood Arb 2. 3.9 mil paid 2014 I'm expecting a cut
Ruggiano: arb 2 2 mil. I expect a cut. I can't see a part timer getting more.
Valbuena arb3. 1.71 mil 2014 he should get a raise. He could be traded though with his playing time looking to be cut and getting a pay hike. Having Valikia and Watkins frees up for a move like that.

Arrieta will be hitting Arb1. I would be surprised if he doesn't get a 5 year offer this off season.

So looking the team over:

Every day players:
LF: Now Coghlan, Ruggiano, Lake, Sczur, Sweeney
CF Alcantara
RF: Soler

3B: Valbuena, Olt
SS: Castro
2B: Baez, Watkins
1B: Rizzo, Valikia
C: Castillo

So they need a catcher. I'm ok with Lopez as a back up. He hit well in Iowa.
Now with Bryant a 1/3 of the season in Iowa it makes sense to trade Valbuena. Watkins and Valikia both can handle backing up 3B. IMO they should let Olt run with it for the time being.

LF is the biggest on going question. I would almost be ok with Coghlan next year if he had more of a track record going. They are stuck with Sweeney regardless. Szczur is a 4th OF who can cover CF. I'm fine with Sweeney and Szczur as the back ups. The question is if they want to roll with Coghlan.

pitching: I see right now Arrieta, Hendricks and Doubront as the keepers. If they went and investing here and let the farm provide for the O it would not be a dumb choice.

Lets say they eat Jacksons deal. 11 mil added to the base of 31 mil next year. add 4 mil first year for a multi on Arrieta. Cut/trade Valbuena, Coghlan and Ruggiano.

Rest of the arb cases: 5 total avg 1.5 mil each: 7.5 mil

Total: 53.5 mil. Sure they have to add around 3-5 mil for league m in deals still under 60 mil right now.

So if they add Lester at 130 mil for 6 years: avg 21 mil. So around 80 mil payroll.

Now the question here is do they trust Turner? Personally I do not. But they have a 2015 option. I wouldn't pull it. He has a 1.50 WHIP with the Cubs and that is just not trust worthy.

So say they add a 2nd arm to Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks and Doubront. Or they could add a bat. I'm expecting payroll to sit at 110 mil. This gives them 30 mil to cover it.

So for 8 mil they could buy Rasmus for LF then they could go after Madea. Posting feel would be 20 mil. I would expect the bidding to get into the 100 mil range for him.

IMO the Cubs would be better with Hendricks as the 4th best pitcher on the staff. So I would do it. Even if it meant no bat and keeping Coghlan in LF.
 

CSF77

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SP FIP:

Jake Arrieta: 2.30
Felix Doubront: 3.12
Kyle Hendricks: 3.22
Tsuyoshi Wada: 3.83
Edwin Jackson: 4.33
Travis Wood: 4.47
Jacob Turner: 4.58

So with league avg being 4.00. Wada is under but his age works against him. Other 3 need to go. Which is a big reason why I said who they should retain. FIP backs it.

They need to add 2 arms.
 

Parade_Rain

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I believe after getting burnt on Schierholtz and Sweeney this year I doubt they are going to trust Coghlan's resurgence as being long term sustainable.
Coghlan's situation isn't similar, imho. High draft pick who had injury/health issues. He's had a good year. I'm not sure they will replace him.

LF is the biggest on going question. I would almost be ok with Coghlan next year if he had more of a track record going. They are stuck with Sweeney regardless. Szczur is a 4th OF who can cover CF. I'm fine with Sweeney and Szczur as the back ups. The question is if they want to roll with Coghlan.
Szczur needs to change his swing plane significantly.
 
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CSF77

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Coghlan's situation isn't similar, imho. High draft pick who had injury/health issues. He's had a good year. I'm not sure they will replace him.

Szczur needs to change his swing plane significantly.

He would be out there for his glove and legs not his bat.

Chris Coghlan:

Career avg:
.270 hitter. .337 OBA .397 SLG
K%: 17.1 BB%: 8.6% around league avg stats.

wOBA: .324

This year:
BB%: 8.9% Right at his career avg. expect this avg.
K%: 18.6% little higher than his career.
OBA: .338 right on the mark for his career.
SLG: .422 .025 higher than his career avg.
BABIP: .325 avg .319 so little higher than his career.

Sure he could sustain his current numbers. The only stat that has improved significantly is his SLG. That is due to his 2B at 25. I would expect 10 HR's and 30 2B in 400-500 ab's from him.

Still is that what you want out of LF production? .270/.337/.422 10 HR's and 30 2B's at a primary power position.

Teams with power at a non power position can sacrifice power from a corner spot. So if Baez turns into a 30 HR guy at 2B then is is fine if they lose power at LF to get a OBA bat. Even though .337 OBA is really not what I would call a OBA bat.

At the end of the day my opinion is he is equal to David DeJesus in terms of value. Not bad but I wouldn't long term him.
 

Parade_Rain

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Still is that what you want out of LF production? .270/.337/.422 10 HR's and 30 2B's at a primary power position.
I'm not a believer in "primary power position" nonsense. It's silly. Baez is playing 2B as a potential 30-40 HR guy. Are you going to move him to LF because his power is too much for 2B?
 

CSF77

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I'm not a believer in "primary power position" nonsense. It's silly. Baez is playing 2B as a potential 30-40 HR guy. Are you going to move him to LF because his power is too much for 2B?

Did I say that? No I said you can sacrifice a primary power spot if you are getting power out of a non power spot.

Power spots: 3B, 1B, LF, RF
non power spots: C, SS, 2B, CF

This ties to spray charts and also the catcher being a primary D position. If you get power out of one of these spots then you can lose power to add another element like OBA out of a primary power spot.

End of the day Cog is a league avg player. OK across the board but lacks a plus tool. He is a stop gap player.
 

CSF77

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Take this year:
Cubs power spots: 1B, RF, SS (Baez)
Non power spots: 3B, LF, 2B (Watkins), CF, C

So 3 power spots and 5 non power spots.

Out of the 5 non power spots Cog is at .337 OBA. Watkins not enough data. Alcantara .261 OBA, Valbuena: .332 OBA, Castillo .299 OBA.

Just looking it over it looks pretty crappy and it makes sense why this team is broken right now.
 

Parade_Rain

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Take this year:
Cubs power spots: 1B, RF, SS (Baez)
Non power spots: 3B, LF, 2B (Watkins), CF, C

So 3 power spots and 5 non power spots.

Out of the 5 non power spots Cog is at .337 OBA. Watkins not enough data. Alcantara .261 OBA, Valbuena: .332 OBA, Castillo .299 OBA.

Just looking it over it looks pretty crappy and it makes sense why this team is broken right now.
This year isn't next. The kids will struggle some. They will have pop, though. Alcantara may very well figure things out and has better pop than I was aware of. Rizzo, Soler, Baez, Bryant, Castro (on a lesser scale). There are going to be plenty of hits and plenty of struggles. The grace is having the pitching while they grow as position players. Coghlan brings some age/wisdom to the clubhouse. What Coghlan can provide is a bit older player who has been through some struggles personally and doesn't hurt the club. Now I'm not guaranteeing that they won't sign an OF, but I don't believe it's necessary. Outside of the beginning of the season, even with this team's shortcomings, they were close to .500 for a long time. I haven't seen a compelling reason to believe they need to add something other than a couple of solid SP to be much improved and in the WC picture.
 

CSF77

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What I would do:
I would run Olt at 3B, Baez at 2B and Alcantara at CF. Let them adjust. AAA Bryant at LF and Russell at 3B. Get ready for the promotion. Schwarber full time C at AA. Almora a full year at AA.

I would add 2 SP. Turner I would decline his option. Wood not offer arb. eat the 22 mil on Jackson. Valbuena trade or decline. Same with Ruggiano.

Basically free up resource for 2 SP.

Now next year they would have out of S.T.
LF: Cog .337 OBA most likely.
SS: Castro .339 OBA
1B: Rizzo (best player over all)
RF: Soler (2nd best player)
2B: Baez (let him adjust)
CF: Alcantara
3B: Olt
C: Castillo

You add Russell at 3B and Bryant at LF:

Line up becomes:

3B: Russell
SS: Castro
1B: Rizzo
LF: Bryant
RF: Soler
2B: Baez
CF: Alcantara
C: Castillo

Then the following year they add Schwarber to split up some of the RH bats.

That is a plan that in theory should work as long as none of them fall off of the truck.
 

CSF77

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This year isn't next. The kids will struggle some. They will have pop, though. Alcantara may very well figure things out and has better pop than I was aware of. Rizzo, Soler, Baez, Bryant, Castro (on a lesser scale). There are going to be plenty of hits and plenty of struggles. The grace is having the pitching while they grow as position players. Coghlan brings some age/wisdom to the clubhouse. What Coghlan can provide is a bit older player who has been through some struggles personally and doesn't hurt the club. Now I'm not guaranteeing that they won't sign an OF, but I don't believe it's necessary. Outside of the beginning of the season, even with this team's shortcomings, they were close to .500 for a long time. I haven't seen a compelling reason to believe they need to add something other than a couple of solid SP to be much improved and in the WC picture.

we agree then
 

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The Cubs are gonna strike out a ton and hit a ton of homers. That I am certain of. Everything else will work itself out.
 

CSF77

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The Cubs are gonna strike out a ton and hit a ton of homers. That I am certain of. Everything else will work itself out.

Maybe. You add Schwarber and Russell it improves. Bryant should run 30% SO and 15% BB. Still a 2:1 ratio. Schwarber almost runs 1:1 with some LH power.
 

CSF77

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If it was 30% SO and 5% BB in the line up over all it would get scared.
 

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