The Bears Playoff Breakdown

WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
Your numbers make no sense. You pick 10 years for 1 thing and 7 years for another thing.

And your not even using real stats. I project that the Packers will win the Super Bowl this season. That means the Packers will have won 40% of the Super Bowls in the last 5 years! Ha! Take that!

Just see how it plays out. Perhaps your genius Wonka rain man will surprise. And if not then post some actual numbers.
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What numbers are you upset about? I included the numbers with no projection. Does the difference between 14% and 12.5% really upset you that much?

I broke it down into 3 time frames, after Superbowl, 10 years and 20 years.

The Bears playoff expectancy is almost 0%, and the Packers Superbowl expectancy is not even close to that definitive.
 
Mongo_76

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Well written, well thought out OP.

The only thing I don't get with the post that is that it bases a thesis off a lot of statistics reliant on numbers, and...








...all the numbers are wrong.


Otherwise, well done.
 
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WindyCity said:
What surprised me was that in the last 10-12 years the Bears, despite not really being super competitive, have clung to mediocrity. There was no real time where they were really bad and rebuilding.

Part me wonders if this is a result of free agency being used to supplement the team, or mediocre drafting.

I wonder if the Bears would have been better to bottom out for a couple of season and used that to build a more talent rich roster?
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The Packers pretty much did that for the 2005 season. Mighty Brett Favre with 4 wins. Granted he played Special person all year but his supporting cast just wasn't the same.
 
JesusHalasChrist

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Why would you project this season's results when the last twenty years provides all the evidence a person needs to show this is an average/mediocre franchise?
 
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WindyCity said:
What numbers are you upset about? I included the numbers with no projection. Does the difference between 14% and 12.5% really upset you that much?

I broke it down into 3 time frames, after Superbowl, 10 years and 20 years.

The Bears playoff expectancy is almost 0%, and the Packers Superbowl expectancy is not even close to that definitive.
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I like to see how things play out. The 2006 Packers were 4-8 and coming off a 4-12 season. They almost made the playoffs finishing 8-8. The Packers were all but ruled out last year with Rodgers out and competing with the Bears and Lions for the division. You don't know what will happen especially midway through the season. So I think assuming is a bit careless when trying to analyze stats. Careless and misleading.

Regarding the Packers winning the Super Bowl, that's my projection so my 40% remains accurate. See how silly that is?
 
WindyCity

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The Bears current projected chances at the Playoffs are 7% according to football outsiders.
 
WindyCity

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Mongo_76 said:
Well written, well thought out OP.

The only thing I don't get with the post that is that it bases a thesis off a lot of statistics reliant on numbers, and...








...all the numbers are wrong.


Otherwise, well done.
Click to expand...

What numbers are the issue?
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
I like to see how things play out. The 2006 Packers were 4-8 and coming off a 4-12 season. They almost made the playoffs finishing 8-8. The Packers were all but ruled out last year with Rodgers out and competing with the Bears and Lions for the division. You don't know what will happen especially midway through the season. So I think assuming is a bit careless when trying to analyze stats. Careless and misleading.

Regarding the Packers winning the Super Bowl, that's my projection so my 40% remains accurate. See how silly that is?
Click to expand...

Took the projection out.

Any issues with the rest of the numbers?
 
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WindyCity said:
The Bears current projected chances at the Playoffs are 7% according to football outsiders.
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What will the projection be if they win their next game?

One of my FF leagues is on yahoo. They have an ongoing percentage of winning during games. It's kind of fun. But I'll go from 99% to 10% with one random TD. I expect a report after the GB/CHI game as to what their new percentage is.
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
What will the projection be if they win their next game?

One of my FF leagues is on yahoo. They have an ongoing percentage of winning during games. It's kind of fun. But I'll go from 99% to 10% with one random TD. I expect a report after the GB/CHI game as to what their new percentage is.
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The reason I used the post Super Bowl years as a time mark is because it led to the firing of Lovie and the hiring of Trestman.

Emery referenced it multiple times in his press cofference.

You are right I will save the projection until the playoffs start.
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
The Packers pretty much did that for the 2005 season. Mighty Brett Favre with 4 wins. Granted he played Special person all year but his supporting cast just wasn't the same.
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Would the Bears be better off really crashing and coming back with more top level talent?
 
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I think you got me Windy. You cleaned up your initial post. I was going to say, well, why not go back 30 years instead of 20 but that was prior to free agency. I have to agree that looking at the success, projected or not, it's less than impressive.

I don't think the comparison to expansion teams matters though. They have been around long enough.

But thanks. You have proven to me that The Bears Still Suck. And here I thought that's just what we said as Packer fans out of tradition.
 
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WindyCity said:
Would the Bears be better off really crashing and coming back with more top level talent?
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Call me nuts but I think the Bears are fine talent wise, Cutler included. You can't blow up that offense. I wouldn't blow up the players I will kill the coaching staff, all of it, if this doesn't get turned around.
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
I think you got me Windy. You cleaned up your initial post. I was going to say, well, why not go back 30 years instead of 20 but that was prior to free agency. I have to agree that looking at the success, projected or not, it's less than impressive.

I don't think the comparison to expansion teams matters though. They have been around long enough.

But thanks. You have proven to me that The Bears Still Suck. And here I thought that's just what we said as Packer fans out of tradition.
Click to expand...

I needed something to context the early years and expansion teams are expected to be crap and they were better than the Bears in that era.

How do you break this extended period of mediocirty?

My thought is that you need to build through the draft and get guys like Kyle Long and Kyle Fuller to build around.
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
Call me nuts but I think the Bears are fine talent wise, Cutler included. You can't blow up that offense. I wouldn't blow up the players I will kill the coaching staff, all of it, if this doesn't get turned around.
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The offense is locked in.

The talent level on defense could use a huge influx of dynamic talent. We do not really have a single really impressive talent, outside of flashes of Fuller.

Blow the coaches up again and we are onto a 3rd staff trying to get the Bears out of their post Super Bowl haze.
 
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WindyCity said:
The offense is locked in.

The talent level on defense could use a huge influx of dynamic talent. We do not really have a single really impressive talent, outside of flashes of Fuller.

Blow the coaches up again and we are onto a 3rd staff trying to get the Bears out of their post Super Bowl haze.
Click to expand...

Your coach wants to vaccinate your team of success. He's full of bullshit. If not successful this year, blow it the eff up! Should have after last year.
 
WindyCity

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Packer Fan said:
Your coach wants to vaccinate your team of success. He's full of bullshit. If not successful this year, blow it the eff up! Should have after last year.
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I do not see that happening.

I think Trestman and Cutler are locked in together till 2016.

What coach is going to want to come in here with 18 million locked into a QB that may be broken? Can Cutler handle another system?
 
hyatt151

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BEARZOMBIE said:
Just wait for next year brah they will be gellin and proving the haters wrong
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I predict that various posters on this very site will have proclaimed no less than 5 of our 7 2015 draft choices as HOF potential canidates before the team reports for OTA'S.
 
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