TL1961
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I must be in the minority. I think his average will be much higher. The highest I have seen here is one person predicting .270. Most around .260.
I say .280 or better.
I must be in the minority. I think his average will be much higher. The highest I have seen here is one person predicting .270. Most around .260.
I say .280 or better.
beckdawg
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I'm talking specifically next year. I think he can have a higher average in his future but saying he's going to be a .280 year one? That's a tough ask for any prospect especially one who has K issues.
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you can go that route but as of now bryant is a spec with a high ceiling as chris sale is a top 3 starter in the AL
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its not about the "spec" rankings. it is what comes out of the system that matters imo. its never about "top ten". look at a lot of the players in baseball and what they were ranked and what they became. buehrle 38th round...this happens a lot.
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TC in Mississippi
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I think many of us think the numbers could be higher but are tempering expectations. His SLG should be north of .525, his OBP should be .385 or better and he's going to hit 25 HR. A .280 or above average indicates both of those numbers could be better. That's superstar out of the box, RoY and an MVP candidate in one package. Feels silly to predict that and unfair to the kid to expect it.
brett05
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Nice try at a troll attempt. You failed miserably, but hey, you tried.
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I wouldnt say a lot. It happens but not a lot. The percentage of players that become average major league players drops a good bit after the first. It also has a pretty steep drop off after the first 10 picks.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-much-is-a-draft-pick-worth-in-2014/
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That post wasn't a troll attempt as much as it was just extremely funny. Take a deep breath and laugh a little, man.
brett05
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Given the history it was a failed attempt if it was meant to be funny.
brett05
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I think your percentage of hitting changes, but the actual number of all stars that were something other than first round picks might surprise us all.
brett05
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I just went thru the starting lineups and the NL bench hitters and it's over 2-1 that an all star comes from somewhere other than the first round. I was amazed at home many were actually free agents.
TC in Mississippi
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True but not sure that's a great litmus test especially with the rule that every team has at least one All Star. A lot of mediocre to bad players have made an All Star game.
brett05
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Good point. If you limit it to just starters it's just over 1.5 to 1 against the first rounder. The NL though was still 2-1 against.
And a lot of bad to mediocre players have made it to the AS game, it's hardly ever more than one or two in any given year
chibears55
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Kris bryant will hit . 290s with 30+ HRs and make AS team and win ROY..
I think he that good....
I think he that good....
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There are 40 rounds in the MLB draft. You also have to put in the people who were first round talent but were drafted later with over slot. You are much more likely to get an all star player out of a top 10 pick then anywhere else. Use the percentages. That article broke it all down.
brett05
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People not drafted in the first 30 picks are not first rounders. Regardless of reasons why. Like the numbers show, 2-1 your better players will not be first rounders. Now you want to compare first found to any other round, no argument. But you take round one guys and I get all the rest of the rounds and I am going to win each and every time. I think that's the point being made when Dews brought up Buerhle.
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What? Everyone has around the same amount of picks. the team with the number 1 pick has a distinct advantage then a team picking 30th with the same amount of picks. Yes, you can hit in the draft after the first round, but the percentages will always be in the top 10 favor.
brett05
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And no one argues against that. But you take a team like the Cardinals that do not have top ten picks and year after year they produce. Why?
Wouldn't good scouting and coaching trump draft position? The AS game says yes based on it's makeup.
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He's gonna break every record Wayne Gretzky ever set
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That team is an exception not a rule. Also, they also have an advantage now with the compensation picks they get for not being a large market. That rule is completely bullshit. The Cardinals are a modeled run franchise, but dont think luck didnt play the part. No one thought they were getting a Generational player with Albert Pujols. I want to see where they go when Molina and others start to leave. I think there talent is about to hit a wall. Im not saying you cant hit. I am giving you the percentages that a top 10 pick will succeed more often then any other picks percentage wise. Also, top 10 has become a lot more valuable because of the new CBA. The Cardinals and the Sox lived for over slotting players in later rounds. It was why they were able to stay on top of the farm game. Now, it is a lot harder to do. The Cubs specifically picked Kyle Schwarber so they could sign Dylan Cease and another guy I dont feel like looking up. They knew Schwarber would sign under slot and liked his bat. It allowed us to get Cease who was a top 15 talent.
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